T-Mobile Center · Neutral site · Conference game · Conference tournament
Closing line
CIN -3.5✓ UCF covered by 4.5
CIN -3.5✓ UCF covered by 4.5Closing total149.5Under by 18.5
| CIN | This season | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| 18-14 | Record | 20-10 |
| 14-18 | ATS | 14-16 |
| 13-19 | O/U | 13-17 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: CIN 77–74 UCF · ✗ CIN (61%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 27 | 31 | 7 | 65 |
| UCF | 26 | 32 | 8 | 66 |
1st half: CIN 27, UCF 26 (CIN by 1). The model had CIN by 1.9 and a total of 70.7 (actual 53).
Team stats
| CIN | UCF | |
|---|---|---|
| 20-59 34% | Field goals | 25-74 34% |
| 11-26 42% | 3-pointers | 3-24 13% |
| 14-17 82% | Free throws | 13-23 57% |
| 46 10 off | Rebounds | 49 18 off |
| 13 | Assists | 10 |
| 5 | Steals | 7 |
| 6 | Blocks | 2 |
| 19 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 19 | Fouls | 16 |
| 10 | Points in paint | 38 |
| 6 | Fast-break points | 7 |
Players
| CIN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day Day Thomas G | 42 | 15 | 3 | 6 | 4-14 | 1-7 |
| Moustapha Thiam C | 42 | 18 | 16 | 0 | 7-14 | 3-4 |
| Jalen Celestine G | 39 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 4-12 | 3-9 |
| Baba Miller F | 33 | 4 | 12 | 4 | 0-6 | 0-1 |
| Jizzle James G | 30 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2-6 | 2-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Keyshuan Tillery G | 23 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 3-6 | 2-3 |
| Sencire Harris G | 11 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Shon Abaev F | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Halvine Dzellat C | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Tyler McKinley F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jordi Rodriguez-Stegemeijer, Lucas Atauri, Bryson Buckingham, Grant Darbyshire, Jalen Haynes, Kerr Kriisa
| UCF | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Themus Fulks G | 40 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 2-9 | 0-2 |
| Jordan Burks F | 39 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 3-9 | 0-4 |
| Riley Kugel G | 35 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 7-17 | 1-4 |
| Jamichael Stillwell F | 33 | 17 | 15 | 0 | 7-17 | 0-0 |
| John Bol C | 31 | 13 | 8 | 0 | 4-9 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Carmelo Pacheco G | 14 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-5 | 1-5 |
| Chris Johnson G | 13 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1-6 | 1-6 |
| Devan Cambridge F | 12 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Jeremy Foumena C | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Elijah Hulsewe C | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Tanner Jones, Zachary Johnson, George Beale Jr., Poohpha Warakulnukroh, Kris Parker
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketCIN -3.5
ModelCIN -3.0
Model edgeUCF +0.5
W UCF covered
Total
Market149.5
Model151.2
Model edgeOver 1.7
L Under
Projected score
CIN 77.1 · UCF 74.1
CIN 65 · UCF 66
Win probability
CIN 61%
1st half
Spread
CIN -1.9
CIN -1.0
Total
70.7
53 points
Projected score
CIN 36.3 · UCF 34.4
CIN 27 · UCF 26
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenCIN -2.5
1 → CIN
CloseCIN -3.5
1 pt toward CIN
Total
Open147.5
▲ 2
Close149.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
CIN -155 · UCF +130
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened CIN -2.5 · closed CIN -3.5 · moved 1 toward CINmodel CIN -3
model CIN -3
Opened 147.5 · closed 149.5 · moved 2 upmodel 151
model 151
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% | 7-3 70% |
| UCF | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
CIN 6–3 UCFCIN leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · CIN 7-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2025-26 | UCF 72 @ CIN 92 | CIN -4.5 | CIN W |
| Jan 11, 2025-26 | CIN 72 @ UCF 73 | UCF -2.5 | CIN W |
| Apr 3, 2024-25 | UCF 88 vs CIN 80 | CIN -6.5 | UCF W |
| Feb 5, 2024-25 | CIN 93 @ UCF 83 | UCF -3.5 | CIN W |
| Feb 17, 2023-24 | CIN 76 @ UCF 74 | UCF -0.5 | CIN W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Cincinnati
32 games played
Straight up
18-14
56% wins
Against the spread
14-18
44% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-19
41% overs · avg −3.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs WCU | W 94-63 | -22.5 | W +8.5 | 143.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 7 | vs GAST | W 74-64 | -29.5 | L −19.5 | 151.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 11 | vs DAY | W 74-62 | -5.5 | W +6.5 | 147.5 | U 136 |
| Nov 16 | vs MSM | W 72-55 | -25.5 | L −8.5 | 145.5 | U 127 |
| Nov 21 | vs LOU | L 64-74 | +8.5 | L −1.5 | 163.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 24 | vs NJIT | W 94-67 | -34.5 | L −7.5 | 141.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 26 | vs EMU | L 56-64 | -22.5 | L −30.5 | 146.5 | U 120 |
| Dec 1 | vs TAR | W 76-58 | -24.5 | L −6.5 | 142.5 | U 134 |
| Dec 5 | @ XAV | L 74-79 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 147.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 13 | vs UGA | L 65-84 | +5.5 | L −13.5 | 157.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 17 | vs ALST | W 88-51 | -21.5 | W +15.5 | 145.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 21 | vs CLEM | L 65-68 | +3.5 | W +0.5 | 140.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 29 | vs LIP | W 89-62 | -13.5 | W +13.5 | 150.5 | O 151 |
| Jan 3 | vs HOU | L 60-67 | +4.5 | L −2.5 | 135.5 | U 127 |
| Jan 6 | @ WVU | L 60-62 | -1.5 | L −3.5 | 132.5 | U 122 |
| Jan 11 | @UCF | L 72-73 | +2.5 | W +1.5 | 150.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 14 | vs COLO | W 77-68 | -8.5 | W +0.5 | 145.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 17 | vs ISU | W 79-70 | +5.5 | W +14.5 | 141.5 | O 149 |
| Jan 21 | @ ARIZ | L 51-77 | +13.5 | L −12.5 | 152.5 | U 128 |
| Jan 24 | @ ASU | L 68-82 | -3.5 | L −17.5 | 146.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 28 | vs BAY | W 67-57 | -3.5 | W +6.5 | 145.5 | U 124 |
| Jan 31 | @HOU | L 54-76 | +13.5 | L −8.5 | 135.5 | U 130 |
| Feb 5 | vsWVU | L 54-59 | -5.5 | L −10.5 | 127.5 | U 113 |
| Feb 8 | vsUCF | W 92-72 | -4.5 | W +15.5 | 146.5 | O 164 |
| Feb 11 | @ KSU | W 91-62 | -2.5 | W +26.5 | 147.5 | O 153 |
| Feb 15 | vs UTAH | W 69-65 | -12.5 | L −8.5 | 139.5 | U 134 |
| Feb 21 | @ KU | W 84-68 | +8.5 | W +24.5 | 139.5 | O 152 |
| Feb 24 | @ TTU | L 68-80 | +6.5 | L −5.5 | 143.5 | O 148 |
| Feb 28 | vs OKST | W 91-68 | -9.5 | W +13.5 | 151.5 | O 159 |
| Mar 3 | vs BYU | W 90-68 | -1.5 | W +20.5 | 151.5 | O 158 |
| Mar 7 | @ TCU | L 63-73 | +2.5 | L −7.5 | 140.5 | U 136 |
| Mar 10 | vsUTAH | W 73-66 | -12.5 | L −5.5 | 138.5 | O 139 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsWCU
WCUW 94-63
+8.5
7
vsGAST
GASTW 74-64
−19.5
11
vsDAY
DAYW 74-62
+6.5
16
vsMSM
MSMW 72-55
−8.5
21
vsLOU
LOUL 64-74
−1.5
24
vsNJIT
NJITW 94-67
−7.5
26
vsEMU
EMUL 56-64
−30.5
1
vsTAR
TARW 76-58
−6.5
5
@XAV
XAVL 74-79
−6.5
13
vsUGA
UGAL 65-84
−13.5
17
vsALST
ALSTW 88-51
+15.5
21
vsCLEM
CLEML 65-68
+0.5
29
vsLIP
LIPW 89-62
+13.5
3
vsHOU
HOUL 60-67
−2.5
6
@WVU
WVUL 60-62
−3.5
11
@UCF
UCFL 72-73
+1.5
14
vsCOLO
COLOW 77-68
+0.5
17
vsISU
ISUW 79-70
+14.5
21
@ARIZ
ARIZL 51-77
−12.5
24
@ASU
ASUL 68-82
−17.5
28
vsBAY
BAYW 67-57
+6.5
31
@HOU
HOUL 54-76
−8.5
5
vsWVU
WVUL 54-59
−10.5
8
vsUCF
UCFW 92-72
+15.5
11
@KSU
KSUW 91-62
+26.5
15
vsUTAH
UTAHW 69-65
−8.5
21
@KU
KUW 84-68
+24.5
24
@TTU
TTUL 68-80
−5.5
28
vsOKST
OKSTW 91-68
+13.5
3
vsBYU
BYUW 90-68
+20.5
7
@TCU
TCUL 63-73
−7.5
10
vsUTAH
UTAHW 73-66
−5.5
covered 14didn’t cover 18avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsWCU
WCUW 94-63
+13.5
7
vsGAST
GASTW 74-64
−13.5
11
vsDAY
DAYW 74-62
−11.5
16
vsMSM
MSMW 72-55
−18.5
21
vsLOU
LOUL 64-74
−25.5
24
vsNJIT
NJITW 94-67
+19.5
26
vsEMU
EMUL 56-64
−26.5
1
vsTAR
TARW 76-58
−8.5
5
@XAV
XAVL 74-79
+5.5
13
vsUGA
UGAL 65-84
−8.5
17
vsALST
ALSTW 88-51
−6.5
21
vsCLEM
CLEML 65-68
−7.5
29
vsLIP
LIPW 89-62
+0.5
3
vsHOU
HOUL 60-67
−8.5
6
@WVU
WVUL 60-62
−10.5
11
@UCF
UCFL 72-73
−5.5
14
vsCOLO
COLOW 77-68
−0.5
17
vsISU
ISUW 79-70
+7.5
21
@ARIZ
ARIZL 51-77
−24.5
24
@ASU
ASUL 68-82
+3.5
28
vsBAY
BAYW 67-57
−21.5
31
@HOU
HOUL 54-76
−5.5
5
vsWVU
WVUL 54-59
−14.5
8
vsUCF
UCFW 92-72
+17.5
11
@KSU
KSUW 91-62
+5.5
15
vsUTAH
UTAHW 69-65
−5.5
21
@KU
KUW 84-68
+12.5
24
@TTU
TTUL 68-80
+4.5
28
vsOKST
OKSTW 91-68
+7.5
3
vsBYU
BYUW 90-68
+6.5
7
@TCU
TCUL 63-73
−4.5
10
vsUTAH
UTAHW 73-66
+0.5
over 13under 19avg −3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
UCF
30 games played
Straight up
20-10
67% wins
Against the spread
14-16
47% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-17
43% overs · avg +2.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs HOF | W 82-78 | -8.5 | L −4.5 | 140.5 | O 160 |
| Nov 8 | vs VAN | L 93-105 | +10.5 | L −1.5 | 166.5 | O 198 |
| Nov 11 | vs FAMU | W 97-60 | -23.5 | W +13.5 | 169.5 | U 157 |
| Nov 14 | @ TA&M | W 86-74 | +10.5 | W +22.5 | 172.5 | U 160 |
| Nov 17 | vs OAK | W 87-83 | -13.5 | L −9.5 | 163.5 | O 170 |
| Nov 20 | vs PITT | W 77-67 | +1.5 | W +11.5 | 149.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 25 | vs QUIN | W 102-91 | -13.5 | L −2.5 | 162.5 | O 193 |
| Nov 29 | vs VMI | W 82-57 | -25.5 | L −0.5 | 159.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 7 | vs TOW | W 86-61 | -9.5 | W +15.5 | 148.5 | U 147 |
| Dec 17 | vs MER | W 81-63 | -16.5 | W +1.5 | 160.5 | U 144 |
| Dec 20 | vs FGCU | W 102-80 | -17.5 | W +4.5 | 161.5 | O 182 |
| Dec 23 | vs FAU | W 85-80 | -8.5 | L −3.5 | 162.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 3 | vsKU | W 81-75 | +4.5 | W +10.5 | 157.5 | U 156 |
| Jan 6 | @OKST | L 76-87 | +1.5 | L −9.5 | 175.5 | U 163 |
| Jan 11 | vsCIN | W 73-72 | -2.5 | L −1.5 | 150.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 14 | @KSU | W 82-73 | +2.5 | W +11.5 | 170.5 | U 155 |
| Jan 17 | vsARIZ | L 77-84 | +9.5 | W +2.5 | 165.5 | U 161 |
| Jan 20 | @ISU | L 57-87 | +14.5 | L −15.5 | 156.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 24 | @COLO | W 95-86 | +3.5 | W +12.5 | 159.5 | O 181 |
| Jan 27 | vsASU | W 79-76 | -6.5 | L −3.5 | 161.5 | U 155 |
| Jan 31 | vsTTU | W 88-80 | +5.5 | W +13.5 | 159.5 | O 168 |
| Feb 4 | @HOU | L 55-79 | +15.5 | L −8.5 | 146.5 | U 134 |
| Feb 8 | @CIN | L 72-92 | +4.5 | L −15.5 | 146.5 | O 164 |
| Feb 14 | vsWVU | L 67-74 | -3.5 | L −10.5 | 140.5 | O 141 |
| Feb 17 | vsTCU | W 82-71 | +1.5 | W +12.5 | 154.5 | U 153 |
| Feb 21 | @UTAH | W 73-71 | -1.5 | W +0.5 | 154.5 | U 144 |
| Feb 24 | @BYU | W 97-84 | +14.5 | W +27.5 | 162.5 | O 181 |
| Feb 28 | vsBAY | L 86-87 | -1.5 | L −2.5 | 159.5 | O 173 |
| Mar 3 | vsOKST | L 104-111 | -8.5 | L −15.5 | 167.5 | O 215 |
| Mar 6 | @WVU | L 62-77 | +4.5 | L −10.5 | 142.5 | U 139 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsHOF
HOFW 82-78
−4.5
8
vsVAN
VANL 93-105
−1.5
11
vsFAMU
FAMUW 97-60
+13.5
14
@TA&M
TA&MW 86-74
+22.5
17
vsOAK
OAKW 87-83
−9.5
20
vsPITT
PITTW 77-67
+11.5
25
vsQUIN
QUINW 102-91
−2.5
29
vsVMI
VMIW 82-57
−0.5
7
vsTOW
TOWW 86-61
+15.5
17
vsMER
MERW 81-63
+1.5
20
vsFGCU
FGCUW 102-80
+4.5
23
vsFAU
FAUW 85-80
−3.5
3
vsKU
KUW 81-75
+10.5
6
@OKST
OKSTL 76-87
−9.5
11
vsCIN
CINW 73-72
−1.5
14
@KSU
KSUW 82-73
+11.5
17
vsARIZ
ARIZL 77-84
+2.5
20
@ISU
ISUL 57-87
−15.5
24
@COLO
COLOW 95-86
+12.5
27
vsASU
ASUW 79-76
−3.5
31
vsTTU
TTUW 88-80
+13.5
4
@HOU
HOUL 55-79
−8.5
8
@CIN
CINL 72-92
−15.5
14
vsWVU
WVUL 67-74
−10.5
17
vsTCU
TCUW 82-71
+12.5
21
@UTAH
UTAHW 73-71
+0.5
24
@BYU
BYUW 97-84
+27.5
28
vsBAY
BAYL 86-87
−2.5
3
vsOKST
OKSTL 104-111
−15.5
6
@WVU
WVUL 62-77
−10.5
covered 14didn’t cover 16avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsHOF
HOFW 82-78
+19.5
8
vsVAN
VANL 93-105
+31.5
11
vsFAMU
FAMUW 97-60
−12.5
14
@TA&M
TA&MW 86-74
−12.5
17
vsOAK
OAKW 87-83
+6.5
20
vsPITT
PITTW 77-67
−5.5
25
vsQUIN
QUINW 102-91
+30.5
29
vsVMI
VMIW 82-57
−20.5
7
vsTOW
TOWW 86-61
−1.5
17
vsMER
MERW 81-63
−16.5
20
vsFGCU
FGCUW 102-80
+20.5
23
vsFAU
FAUW 85-80
+2.5
3
vsKU
KUW 81-75
−1.5
6
@OKST
OKSTL 76-87
−12.5
11
vsCIN
CINW 73-72
−5.5
14
@KSU
KSUW 82-73
−15.5
17
vsARIZ
ARIZL 77-84
−4.5
20
@ISU
ISUL 57-87
−12.5
24
@COLO
COLOW 95-86
+21.5
27
vsASU
ASUW 79-76
−6.5
31
vsTTU
TTUW 88-80
+8.5
4
@HOU
HOUL 55-79
−12.5
8
@CIN
CINL 72-92
+17.5
14
vsWVU
WVUL 67-74
+0.5
17
vsTCU
TCUW 82-71
−1.5
21
@UTAH
UTAHW 73-71
−10.5
24
@BYU
BYUW 97-84
+18.5
28
vsBAY
BAYL 86-87
+13.5
3
vsOKST
OKSTL 104-111
+47.5
6
@WVU
WVUL 62-77
−3.5
over 13under 17avg +2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Cincinnati
18-14 overall · 10-9 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Utah73–66
- L@ TCU63–73
- Wvs BYU90–68
- Wvs Oklahoma St91–68
- L@ Texas Tech68–80
1 day since their last game.
UCF
20-10 overall · 9-9 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ West Virginia62–77
- Lvs Oklahoma St104–111
- Lvs Baylor86–87
- W@ BYU97–84
- W@ Utah73–71
5 days since their last game.