Spectrum Center · Neutral site · Conference game · Conference tournament
Closing line
LOU -7.5✓ SMU covered by 3.5
LOU -7.5✓ SMU covered by 3.5Closing total164.5Under by 44.5
 SMU | This season | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| 20-12 | Record | 22-9 |
| 14-18 | ATS | 15-16 |
| 19-13 | O/U | 13-18 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: SMU 80–86 LOU · ✓ LOU (70%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SMU | 26 | 32 | 58 |
| LOU | 26 | 36 | 62 |
1st half: SMU 26, LOU 26 (tied). The model had LOU by 3.5 and a total of 77.1 (actual 52).
Team stats
| SMU | LOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 24-56 43% | Field goals | 21-53 40% |
| 9-27 33% | 3-pointers | 6-26 23% |
| 1-3 33% | Free throws | 14-20 70% |
| 34 11 off | Rebounds | 32 10 off |
| 10 | Assists | 8 |
| 5 | Steals | 6 |
| 5 | Blocks | 2 |
| 14 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 16 | Fouls | 12 |
| 24 | Points in paint | 26 |
| 0 | Fast-break points | 4 |
Players
| SMU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaron Pierre Jr. G | 39 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 6-10 | 5-9 |
| Boopie Miller G | 38 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 4-17 | 0-8 |
| Jaden Toombs F | 32 | 13 | 9 | 2 | 6-11 | 0-1 |
| Samet Yigitoglu C | 31 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Corey Washington F | 27 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 4-7 | 2-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jermaine O'Neal Jr. F | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Sam Walters F | 11 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| B.J. Davis-Ray G | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
Did not play: Niccolo Kalischer-Stork, Billy White III, Mitchell Holmes, Nigel Walls, Chance Puryear, B.J. Edwards, Trey Utter
| LOU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac McKneely G | 39 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 2-9 | 2-7 |
| Adrian Wooley G | 36 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 3-9 | 1-5 |
| J'Vonne Hadley G | 34 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 4-8 | 1-3 |
| Ryan Conwell G | 33 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 6-15 | 2-9 |
| Vangelis Zougris F | 18 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Sananda Fru F | 15 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Kobe Rodgers G | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Aly Khalifa C | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Khani Rooths F | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Kasean Pryor, Will Hanke, Mouhamed Camara, Mikel Brown Jr., Spencer Legg, London Johnson, Cole Sherman
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketLOU -7.5
ModelLOU -6.1
Model edgeSMU +1.4
W SMU covered
Total
Market164.5
Model165.1
Model edgeOver 0.6
L Under
Projected score
SMU 79.5 · LOU 85.6
SMU 58 · LOU 62
Win probability
LOU 70%
1st half
Spread
LOU -3.5
tied
Total
77.1
52 points
Projected score
SMU 36.8 · LOU 40.3
SMU 26 · LOU 26
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenLOU -8.5
1 → SMU
CloseLOU -7.5
1 pt toward SMU
Total
Open165.5
▼ 1
Close164.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
SMU +245 · LOU -305
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened LOU -8.5 · closed LOU -7.5 · moved 1 toward SMUmodel LOU -6
model LOU -6
Opened 165.5 · closed 164.5 · moved 1 downmodel 165
model 165
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SMU | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% | 7-3 70% |
| LOU | 7-3 70% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
SMU 1–2 LOULOU leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · SMU 1-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 17, 2025-26 | LOU 85 @ SMU 95 | SMU +4.5 | SMU W |
| Jan 31, 2025-26 | SMU 74 @ LOU 88 | LOU -9.5 | LOU W |
| Jan 21, 2024-25 | LOU 98 @ SMU 73 | SMU -1.5 | LOU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
SMU
32 games played
Straight up
20-12
63% wins
Against the spread
14-18
44% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
19-13
59% overs · avg +3.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs TAR | W 96-76 | -21.5 | L −1.5 | 144.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 6 | vs AMCC | W 69-58 | -23.5 | L −12.5 | 160.5 | U 127 |
| Nov 11 | vs MUR | W 102-91 | -10.5 | W +0.5 | 164.5 | O 193 |
| Nov 15 | vs BTLR | W 87-85 | -7.5 | L −5.5 | 163.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 18 | vs UAPB | W 106-60 | -35.5 | W +10.5 | 168.5 | U 166 |
| Nov 21 | vs ARST | W 100-69 | -14.5 | W +16.5 | 172.5 | U 169 |
| Nov 24 | vs RAD | W 89-72 | -23.5 | L −6.5 | 165.5 | U 161 |
| Nov 28 | @ MSST | W 87-81 | +1.5 | W +7.5 | 162.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 3 | @ VAN | L 69-88 | +10.5 | L −8.5 | 165.5 | U 157 |
| Dec 7 | vs TA&M | W 93-80 | +1.5 | W +14.5 | 164.5 | O 173 |
| Dec 13 | vs LSU | L 77-89 | +1.5 | L −10.5 | 158.5 | O 166 |
| Dec 21 | vs CARK | W 99-82 | -24.5 | L −7.5 | 156.5 | O 181 |
| Dec 28 | vs CSUF | W 110-63 | -21.5 | W +25.5 | 170.5 | O 173 |
| Jan 3 | vs UNC | W 97-83 | -1.5 | W +12.5 | 155.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 7 | @ CLEM | L 70-74 | +3.5 | L −0.5 | 149.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 10 | @ DUKE | L 75-82 | +15.5 | W +8.5 | 155.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 14 | vs VT | W 77-76 | -8.5 | L −7.5 | 155.5 | U 153 |
| Jan 17 | vs UVA | L 68-72 | +2.5 | L −1.5 | 153.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 20 | @ WAKE | W 91-79 | +1.5 | W +13.5 | 157.5 | O 170 |
| Jan 24 | vs FSU | W 83-80 | -11.5 | L −8.5 | 163.5 | U 163 |
| Jan 31 | @LOU | L 74-88 | +9.5 | L −4.5 | 163.5 | U 162 |
| Feb 3 | vs NCSU | L 83-84 | +1.5 | W +0.5 | 159.5 | O 167 |
| Feb 7 | @ PITT | W 86-67 | -4.5 | W +14.5 | 147.5 | O 153 |
| Feb 10 | vs ND | W 89-81 | -10.5 | L −2.5 | 154.5 | O 170 |
| Feb 14 | @ SYR | L 78-79 | -1.5 | L −2.5 | 157.5 | U 157 |
| Feb 17 | vsLOU | W 95-85 | +4.5 | W +14.5 | 168.5 | O 180 |
| Feb 21 | vs BC | W 94-70 | -15.5 | W +8.5 | 150.5 | O 164 |
| Feb 25 | @ CAL | L 69-73 | -4.5 | L −8.5 | 163.5 | U 142 |
| Feb 28 | @ STAN | L 75-95 | -1.5 | L −21.5 | 155.5 | O 170 |
| Mar 4 | vs MIA | L 69-77 | -1.5 | L −9.5 | 156.5 | U 146 |
| Mar 7 | @FSU | L 78-91 | +1.5 | L −11.5 | 158.5 | O 169 |
| Mar 10 | vsSYR | W 86-69 | -3.5 | W +13.5 | 154.5 | O 155 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsTAR
TARW 96-76
−1.5
6
vsAMCC
AMCCW 69-58
−12.5
11
vsMUR
MURW 102-91
+0.5
15
vsBTLR
BTLRW 87-85
−5.5
18
vsUAPB
UAPBW 106-60
+10.5
21
vsARST
ARSTW 100-69
+16.5
24
vsRAD
RADW 89-72
−6.5
28
@MSST
MSSTW 87-81
+7.5
3
@VAN
VANL 69-88
−8.5
7
vsTA&M
TA&MW 93-80
+14.5
13
vsLSU
LSUL 77-89
−10.5
21
vsCARK
CARKW 99-82
−7.5
28
vsCSUF
CSUFW 110-63
+25.5
3
vsUNC
UNCW 97-83
+12.5
7
@CLEM
CLEML 70-74
−0.5
10
@DUKE
DUKEL 75-82
+8.5
14
vsVT
VTW 77-76
−7.5
17
vsUVA
UVAL 68-72
−1.5
20
@WAKE
WAKEW 91-79
+13.5
24
vsFSU
FSUW 83-80
−8.5
31
@LOU
LOUL 74-88
−4.5
3
vsNCSU
NCSUL 83-84
+0.5
7
@PITT
PITTW 86-67
+14.5
10
vsND
NDW 89-81
−2.5
14
@SYR
SYRL 78-79
−2.5
17
vsLOU
LOUW 95-85
+14.5
21
vsBC
BCW 94-70
+8.5
25
@CAL
CALL 69-73
−8.5
28
@STAN
STANL 75-95
−21.5
4
vsMIA
MIAL 69-77
−9.5
7
@FSU
FSUL 78-91
−11.5
10
vsSYR
SYRW 86-69
+13.5
covered 14didn’t cover 18avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsTAR
TARW 96-76
+27.5
6
vsAMCC
AMCCW 69-58
−33.5
11
vsMUR
MURW 102-91
+28.5
15
vsBTLR
BTLRW 87-85
+8.5
18
vsUAPB
UAPBW 106-60
−2.5
21
vsARST
ARSTW 100-69
−3.5
24
vsRAD
RADW 89-72
−4.5
28
@MSST
MSSTW 87-81
+5.5
3
@VAN
VANL 69-88
−8.5
7
vsTA&M
TA&MW 93-80
+8.5
13
vsLSU
LSUL 77-89
+7.5
21
vsCARK
CARKW 99-82
+24.5
28
vsCSUF
CSUFW 110-63
+2.5
3
vsUNC
UNCW 97-83
+24.5
7
@CLEM
CLEML 70-74
−5.5
10
@DUKE
DUKEL 75-82
+1.5
14
vsVT
VTW 77-76
−2.5
17
vsUVA
UVAL 68-72
−13.5
20
@WAKE
WAKEW 91-79
+12.5
24
vsFSU
FSUW 83-80
−0.5
31
@LOU
LOUL 74-88
−1.5
3
vsNCSU
NCSUL 83-84
+7.5
7
@PITT
PITTW 86-67
+5.5
10
vsND
NDW 89-81
+15.5
14
@SYR
SYRL 78-79
−0.5
17
vsLOU
LOUW 95-85
+11.5
21
vsBC
BCW 94-70
+13.5
25
@CAL
CALL 69-73
−21.5
28
@STAN
STANL 75-95
+14.5
4
vsMIA
MIAL 69-77
−10.5
7
@FSU
FSUL 78-91
+10.5
10
vsSYR
SYRW 86-69
+0.5
over 19under 13avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Louisville
31 games played
Straight up
22-9
71% wins
Against the spread
15-16
48% covers · avg +0.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-18
42% overs · avg −2.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs SCST | W 104-45 | -35.5 | W +23.5 | 159.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 6 | vs JKST | W 106-70 | -38.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 11 | vs UK | W 96-88 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 173.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 15 | vs OHIO | W 106-81 | -31.5 | L −6.5 | 174.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 21 | vs CIN | W 74-64 | -8.5 | W +1.5 | 163.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 24 | vs EMU | W 87-46 | -33.5 | W +7.5 | 162.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 26 | vs NJIT | W 104-47 | -44.5 | W +12.5 | 158.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 3 | @ ARK | L 80-89 | -1.5 | L −10.5 | 166.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 6 | vs IU | W 87-78 | -3.5 | W +5.5 | 162.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 13 | vs MEM | W 99-73 | -16.5 | W +9.5 | 162.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 16 | @ TENN | L 62-83 | +4.5 | L −16.5 | 156.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 20 | vs MONT | W 94-54 | -30.5 | W +9.5 | 166.5 | U 148 |
| Dec 30 | @CAL | W 90-70 | -7.5 | W +12.5 | 159.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 2 | @STAN | L 76-80 | -7.5 | L −11.5 | 157.5 | U 156 |
| Jan 6 | vsDUKE | L 73-84 | +1.5 | L −9.5 | 161.5 | U 157 |
| Jan 10 | vsBC | W 75-62 | -21.5 | L −8.5 | 150.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 13 | vsUVA | L 70-79 | -4.5 | L −13.5 | 154.5 | U 149 |
| Jan 17 | @PITT | W 100-59 | -7.5 | W +33.5 | 152.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 24 | vsVT | W 85-71 | -14.5 | L −0.5 | 160.5 | U 156 |
| Jan 26 | @DUKE | L 52-83 | +8.5 | L −22.5 | 157.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 31 | vsSMU | W 88-74 | -9.5 | W +4.5 | 163.5 | U 162 |
| Feb 4 | vsND | W 76-65 | -19.5 | L −8.5 | 155.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 7 | @WAKE | W 88-80 | -9.5 | L −1.5 | 162.5 | O 168 |
| Feb 9 | vsNCSU | W 118-77 | -6.5 | W +34.5 | 161.5 | O 195 |
| Feb 14 | vs BAY | W 82-71 | -7.5 | W +3.5 | 162.5 | U 153 |
| Feb 17 | @SMU | L 85-95 | -4.5 | L −14.5 | 168.5 | O 180 |
| Feb 21 | vs GT | W 87-70 | -23.5 | L −6.5 | 167.5 | U 157 |
| Feb 23 | @UNC | L 74-77 | -3.5 | L −6.5 | 162.5 | U 151 |
| Feb 28 | @CLEM | L 75-80 | -2.5 | L −7.5 | 146.5 | O 155 |
| Mar 3 | vsSYR | W 77-62 | -14.5 | W +0.5 | 159.5 | U 139 |
| Mar 7 | @MIA | W 92-89 | +1.5 | W +4.5 | 155.5 | O 181 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsSCST
SCSTW 104-45
+23.5
6
vsJKST
JKSTW 106-70
−2.5
11
vsUK
UKW 96-88
+2.5
15
vsOHIO
OHIOW 106-81
−6.5
21
vsCIN
CINW 74-64
+1.5
24
vsEMU
EMUW 87-46
+7.5
26
vsNJIT
NJITW 104-47
+12.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 80-89
−10.5
6
vsIU
IUW 87-78
+5.5
13
vsMEM
MEMW 99-73
+9.5
16
@TENN
TENNL 62-83
−16.5
20
vsMONT
MONTW 94-54
+9.5
30
@CAL
CALW 90-70
+12.5
2
@STAN
STANL 76-80
−11.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 73-84
−9.5
10
vsBC
BCW 75-62
−8.5
13
vsUVA
UVAL 70-79
−13.5
17
@PITT
PITTW 100-59
+33.5
24
vsVT
VTW 85-71
−0.5
26
@DUKE
DUKEL 52-83
−22.5
31
vsSMU
SMUW 88-74
+4.5
4
vsND
NDW 76-65
−8.5
7
@WAKE
WAKEW 88-80
−1.5
9
vsNCSU
NCSUW 118-77
+34.5
14
vsBAY
BAYW 82-71
+3.5
17
@SMU
SMUL 85-95
−14.5
21
vsGT
GTW 87-70
−6.5
23
@UNC
UNCL 74-77
−6.5
28
@CLEM
CLEML 75-80
−7.5
3
vsSYR
SYRW 77-62
+0.5
7
@MIA
MIAW 92-89
+4.5
covered 15didn’t cover 16avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsSCST
SCSTW 104-45
−10.5
6
vsJKST
JKSTW 106-70
+10.5
11
vsUK
UKW 96-88
+10.5
15
vsOHIO
OHIOW 106-81
+12.5
21
vsCIN
CINW 74-64
−25.5
24
vsEMU
EMUW 87-46
−29.5
26
vsNJIT
NJITW 104-47
−7.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 80-89
+2.5
6
vsIU
IUW 87-78
+2.5
13
vsMEM
MEMW 99-73
+9.5
16
@TENN
TENNL 62-83
−11.5
20
vsMONT
MONTW 94-54
−18.5
30
@CAL
CALW 90-70
+0.5
2
@STAN
STANL 76-80
−1.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 73-84
−4.5
10
vsBC
BCW 75-62
−13.5
13
vsUVA
UVAL 70-79
−5.5
17
@PITT
PITTW 100-59
+6.5
24
vsVT
VTW 85-71
−4.5
26
@DUKE
DUKEL 52-83
−22.5
31
vsSMU
SMUW 88-74
−1.5
4
vsND
NDW 76-65
−14.5
7
@WAKE
WAKEW 88-80
+5.5
9
vsNCSU
NCSUW 118-77
+33.5
14
vsBAY
BAYW 82-71
−9.5
17
@SMU
SMUL 85-95
+11.5
21
vsGT
GTW 87-70
−10.5
23
@UNC
UNCL 74-77
−11.5
28
@CLEM
CLEML 75-80
+8.5
3
vsSYR
SYRW 77-62
−20.5
7
@MIA
MIAW 92-89
+25.5
over 13under 18avg −2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
SMU
20-12 overall · 9-10 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Syracuse86–69
- L@ Florida St78–91
- Lvs Miami69–77
- L@ Stanford75–95
- L@ California69–73
1 day since their last game.
Louisville
22-9 overall · 11-7 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Miami92–89
- Wvs Syracuse77–62
- L@ Clemson75–80
- L@ North Carolina74–77
- Wvs Georgia Tech87–70
4 days since their last game.