Mackey Arena · at Purdue · Conference game
Closing line
PUR -9.5✓ WIS covered by 13.5
PUR -9.5✓ WIS covered by 13.5Closing total154.5Over by 35.5
 WIS | This season | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| 21-9 | Record | 23-7 |
| 18-12 | ATS | 13-17 |
| 18-12 | O/U | 14-16 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: WIS 74–83 PUR · ✗ PUR (79%) lost
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIS | 52 | 45 | 97 |
| PUR | 47 | 46 | 93 |
1st half: WIS 52, PUR 47 (WIS by 5). The model had PUR by 5.4 and a total of 73.5 (actual 99).
Team stats
| WIS | PUR | |
|---|---|---|
| 29-52 56% | Field goals | 34-67 51% |
| 18-34 53% | 3-pointers | 11-25 44% |
| 21-24 88% | Free throws | 14-19 74% |
| 22 7 off | Rebounds | 34 16 off |
| 19 | Assists | 20 |
| 4 | Steals | 5 |
| 1 | Blocks | 5 |
| 8 | Turnovers | 7 |
| 19 | Fouls | 18 |
| 22 | Points in paint | 34 |
| 3 | Fast-break points | 4 |
Players
| WIS | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Blackwell G | 38 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 7-13 | 5-10 |
| Aleksas Bieliauskas F | 36 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 5-8 | 4-5 |
| Nick Boyd G | 33 | 23 | 3 | 5 | 8-13 | 1-3 |
| Austin Rapp F | 32 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 4-8 | 4-8 |
| Andrew Rohde G | 30 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Braeden Carrington G | 20 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 2-5 | 2-5 |
| Hayden Jones G | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Will Garlock F | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Riccardo Greppi, Jack Robison, Jack Janicki, Zach Kinziger, Elijah Gray, Isaac Gard, Nolan Winter
| PUR | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braden Smith G | 37 | 20 | 3 | 9 | 8-18 | 2-7 |
| Fletcher Loyer G | 36 | 23 | 3 | 2 | 8-13 | 6-9 |
| C.J. Cox G | 29 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2-7 | 1-3 |
| Oscar Cluff C | 27 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Trey Kaufman-Renn F | 23 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 7-14 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jack Benter G | 17 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Omer Mayer G | 14 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 3-7 | 1-4 |
| Daniel Jacobsen C | 13 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Gicarri Harris G | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Aaron Fine, Jack Lusk, Jace Rayl, Antione West Jr, Sam King, Raleigh Burgess, Liam Murphy
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketPUR -9.5
ModelPUR -9.3
Model edgeWIS +0.3
W WIS covered
Total
Market154.5
Model157.4
Model edgeOver 2.9
W Over
Projected score
WIS 74.1 · PUR 83.3
WIS 97 · PUR 93
Win probability
PUR 79%
1st half
Spread
PUR -5.4
WIS -5.0
Total
73.5
99 points
Projected score
WIS 34.1 · PUR 39.5
WIS 52 · PUR 47
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenPUR -6.5
3 → PUR
ClosePUR -9.5
3 pts toward PUR
Total
Open157.5
▼ 3
Close154.5
Down 3 since the open
Moneyline
WIS +370 · PUR -485
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened PUR -6.5 · closed PUR -9.5 · moved 3 toward PURmodel PUR -9.5
model PUR -9.5
Opened 157.5 · closed 154.5 · moved 3 downmodel 157.5
model 157.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIS | 7-3 70% | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% |
| PUR | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22
WIS 4–4 PURSeries tied · 8 games since 2021-22 · WIS 6-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2025-26 | PUR 89 @ WIS 73 | WIS +5.5 | PUR W |
| Feb 15, 2024-25 | WIS 94 @ PUR 84 | PUR -6.5 | WIS W |
| Mar 16, 2023-24 | WIS 76 vs PUR 75 | PUR -5.5 | WIS W |
| Mar 10, 2023-24 | WIS 70 @ PUR 78 | PUR -9.5 | WIS W |
| Feb 4, 2023-24 | PUR 75 @ WIS 69 | WIS +1.5 | PUR W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Wisconsin
30 games played
Straight up
21-9
70% wins
Against the spread
18-12
60% covers · avg +0.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
18-12
60% overs · avg +2.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs CAM | W 96-64 | -20.5 | W +11.5 | 151.5 | O 160 |
| Nov 7 | vs NIU | W 97-72 | -28.5 | L −3.5 | 157.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 11 | vs BALL | W 86-55 | -26.5 | W +4.5 | 156.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 17 | vs SIUE | W 94-69 | -25.5 | L −0.5 | 146.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 21 | @ BYU | L 70-98 | +4.5 | L −23.5 | 165.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 27 | vs PROV | W 104-83 | -6.5 | W +14.5 | 166.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 28 | vs TCU | L 63-74 | -5.5 | L −16.5 | 157.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 3 | vs NU | W 85-73 | -10.5 | W +1.5 | 155.5 | O 158 |
| Dec 6 | vs MARQ | W 96-76 | -11.5 | W +8.5 | 160.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 10 | @ NEB | L 60-90 | +1.5 | L −28.5 | 158.5 | U 150 |
| Dec 19 | vs VILL | L 66-76 | -3.5 | L −13.5 | 152.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 22 | vs CMU | W 88-61 | -26.5 | W +0.5 | 152.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 30 | vs MILW | W 80-60 | -19.5 | W +0.5 | 157.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 3 | vsPUR | L 73-89 | +5.5 | L −10.5 | 153.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 6 | vs UCLA | W 80-72 | -3.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 10 | @ MICH | W 91-88 | +19.5 | W +22.5 | 169.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 13 | @ MINN | W 78-75 | -1.5 | W +1.5 | 146.5 | O 153 |
| Jan 17 | vs RUTG | W 96-87 | -15.5 | L −6.5 | 149.5 | O 183 |
| Jan 22 | @ PSU | W 98-71 | -5.5 | W +21.5 | 157.5 | O 169 |
| Jan 25 | vs USC | L 71-73 | -7.5 | L −9.5 | 158.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 28 | vsMINN | W 67-63 | -9.5 | L −5.5 | 146.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 31 | vs OSU | W 92-82 | -4.5 | W +5.5 | 155.5 | O 174 |
| Feb 7 | @ IU | L 77-78 | +3.5 | W +2.5 | 157.5 | U 155 |
| Feb 10 | @ ILL | W 92-90 | +9.5 | W +11.5 | 153.5 | O 182 |
| Feb 13 | vs MSU | W 92-71 | +1.5 | W +22.5 | 149.5 | O 163 |
| Feb 17 | @OSU | L 69-86 | +1.5 | L −15.5 | 157.5 | U 155 |
| Feb 22 | vs IOWA | W 84-71 | -2.5 | W +10.5 | 147.5 | O 155 |
| Feb 25 | @ ORE | L 71-85 | -5.5 | L −19.5 | 152.5 | O 156 |
| Feb 28 | @ WASH | W 90-73 | -1.5 | W +15.5 | 153.5 | O 163 |
| Mar 4 | vs MD | W 78-45 | -14.5 | W +18.5 | 153.5 | U 123 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCAM
CAMW 96-64
+11.5
7
vsNIU
NIUW 97-72
−3.5
11
vsBALL
BALLW 86-55
+4.5
17
vsSIUE
SIUEW 94-69
−0.5
21
@BYU
BYUL 70-98
−23.5
27
vsPROV
PROVW 104-83
+14.5
28
vsTCU
TCUL 63-74
−16.5
3
vsNU
NUW 85-73
+1.5
6
vsMARQ
MARQW 96-76
+8.5
10
@NEB
NEBL 60-90
−28.5
19
vsVILL
VILLL 66-76
−13.5
22
vsCMU
CMUW 88-61
+0.5
30
vsMILW
MILWW 80-60
+0.5
3
vsPUR
PURL 73-89
−10.5
6
vsUCLA
UCLAW 80-72
+4.5
10
@MICH
MICHW 91-88
+22.5
13
@MINN
MINNW 78-75
+1.5
17
vsRUTG
RUTGW 96-87
−6.5
22
@PSU
PSUW 98-71
+21.5
25
vsUSC
USCL 71-73
−9.5
28
vsMINN
MINNW 67-63
−5.5
31
vsOSU
OSUW 92-82
+5.5
7
@IU
IUL 77-78
+2.5
10
@ILL
ILLW 92-90
+11.5
13
vsMSU
MSUW 92-71
+22.5
17
@OSU
OSUL 69-86
−15.5
22
vsIOWA
IOWAW 84-71
+10.5
25
@ORE
OREL 71-85
−19.5
28
@WASH
WASHW 90-73
+15.5
4
vsMD
MDW 78-45
+18.5
covered 18didn’t cover 12avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCAM
CAMW 96-64
+8.5
7
vsNIU
NIUW 97-72
+11.5
11
vsBALL
BALLW 86-55
−15.5
17
vsSIUE
SIUEW 94-69
+16.5
21
@BYU
BYUL 70-98
+2.5
27
vsPROV
PROVW 104-83
+20.5
28
vsTCU
TCUL 63-74
−20.5
3
vsNU
NUW 85-73
+2.5
6
vsMARQ
MARQW 96-76
+11.5
10
@NEB
NEBL 60-90
−8.5
19
vsVILL
VILLL 66-76
−10.5
22
vsCMU
CMUW 88-61
−3.5
30
vsMILW
MILWW 80-60
−17.5
3
vsPUR
PURL 73-89
+8.5
6
vsUCLA
UCLAW 80-72
−0.5
10
@MICH
MICHW 91-88
+9.5
13
@MINN
MINNW 78-75
+6.5
17
vsRUTG
RUTGW 96-87
+33.5
22
@PSU
PSUW 98-71
+11.5
25
vsUSC
USCL 71-73
−14.5
28
vsMINN
MINNW 67-63
−16.5
31
vsOSU
OSUW 92-82
+18.5
7
@IU
IUL 77-78
−2.5
10
@ILL
ILLW 92-90
+28.5
13
vsMSU
MSUW 92-71
+13.5
17
@OSU
OSUL 69-86
−2.5
22
vsIOWA
IOWAW 84-71
+7.5
25
@ORE
OREL 71-85
+3.5
28
@WASH
WASHW 90-73
+9.5
4
vsMD
MDW 78-45
−30.5
over 18under 12avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Purdue
30 games played
Straight up
23-7
77% wins
Against the spread
13-17
43% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
14-16
47% overs · avg +0.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs EVAN | W 82-51 | -33.5 | L −2.5 | 150.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 7 | vs OAK | W 87-77 | -31.5 | L −21.5 | 158.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 13 | @ ALA | W 87-80 | +3.5 | W +10.5 | 172.5 | U 167 |
| Nov 16 | vs AKR | W 97-79 | -18.5 | L −0.5 | 163.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 20 | vs MEM | W 80-71 | -14.5 | L −5.5 | 156.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 21 | vs TTU | W 86-56 | -3.5 | W +26.5 | 153.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 28 | vs EIU | W 109-62 | -40.5 | W +6.5 | 141.5 | O 171 |
| Dec 2 | @RUTG | W 81-65 | -13.5 | W +2.5 | 146.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 6 | vs ISU | L 58-81 | -4.5 | L −27.5 | 154.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 10 | vsMINN | W 85-57 | -19.5 | W +8.5 | 143.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 13 | vsMARQ | W 79-59 | -16.5 | W +3.5 | 154.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 20 | vs AUB | W 88-60 | -7.5 | W +20.5 | 152.5 | U 148 |
| Dec 29 | vs KENT | W 101-60 | -24.5 | W +16.5 | 155.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 3 | @WIS | W 89-73 | -5.5 | W +10.5 | 153.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 7 | vsWASH | W 81-73 | -16.5 | L −8.5 | 154.5 | U 154 |
| Jan 10 | vsPSU | W 93-85 | -22.5 | L −14.5 | 152.5 | O 178 |
| Jan 14 | vsIOWA | W 79-72 | -10.5 | L −3.5 | 145.5 | O 151 |
| Jan 17 | @USC | W 69-64 | -9.5 | L −4.5 | 155.5 | U 133 |
| Jan 20 | @UCLA | L 67-69 | -5.5 | L −7.5 | 147.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 24 | vsILL | L 82-88 | -5.5 | L −11.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
| Jan 27 | @IU | L 67-72 | -4.5 | L −9.5 | 150.5 | U 139 |
| Feb 1 | @MD | W 93-63 | -15.5 | W +14.5 | 148.5 | O 156 |
| Feb 7 | vsORE | W 68-64 | -19.5 | L −15.5 | 144.5 | U 132 |
| Feb 10 | @NEB | W 80-77 | +2.5 | W +5.5 | 146.5 | O 157 |
| Feb 14 | @IOWA | W 78-57 | -2.5 | W +18.5 | 142.5 | U 135 |
| Feb 17 | vsMICH | L 80-91 | +2.5 | L −8.5 | 156.5 | O 171 |
| Feb 20 | vsIU | W 93-64 | -11.5 | W +17.5 | 150.5 | O 157 |
| Feb 26 | vsMSU | L 74-76 | -5.5 | L −7.5 | 143.5 | O 150 |
| Mar 1 | @OSU | L 74-82 | -6.5 | L −14.5 | 149.5 | O 156 |
| Mar 4 | @NU | W 70-66 | -12.5 | L −8.5 | 145.5 | U 136 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsEVAN
EVANW 82-51
−2.5
7
vsOAK
OAKW 87-77
−21.5
13
@ALA
ALAW 87-80
+10.5
16
vsAKR
AKRW 97-79
−0.5
20
vsMEM
MEMW 80-71
−5.5
21
vsTTU
TTUW 86-56
+26.5
28
vsEIU
EIUW 109-62
+6.5
2
@RUTG
RUTGW 81-65
+2.5
6
vsISU
ISUL 58-81
−27.5
10
vsMINN
MINNW 85-57
+8.5
13
vsMARQ
MARQW 79-59
+3.5
20
vsAUB
AUBW 88-60
+20.5
29
vsKENT
KENTW 101-60
+16.5
3
@WIS
WISW 89-73
+10.5
7
vsWASH
WASHW 81-73
−8.5
10
vsPSU
PSUW 93-85
−14.5
14
vsIOWA
IOWAW 79-72
−3.5
17
@USC
USCW 69-64
−4.5
20
@UCLA
UCLAL 67-69
−7.5
24
vsILL
ILLL 82-88
−11.5
27
@IU
IUL 67-72
−9.5
1
@MD
MDW 93-63
+14.5
7
vsORE
OREW 68-64
−15.5
10
@NEB
NEBW 80-77
+5.5
14
@IOWA
IOWAW 78-57
+18.5
17
vsMICH
MICHL 80-91
−8.5
20
vsIU
IUW 93-64
+17.5
26
vsMSU
MSUL 74-76
−7.5
1
@OSU
OSUL 74-82
−14.5
4
@NU
NUW 70-66
−8.5
covered 13didn’t cover 17avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsEVAN
EVANW 82-51
−17.5
7
vsOAK
OAKW 87-77
+5.5
13
@ALA
ALAW 87-80
−5.5
16
vsAKR
AKRW 97-79
+12.5
20
vsMEM
MEMW 80-71
−5.5
21
vsTTU
TTUW 86-56
−11.5
28
vsEIU
EIUW 109-62
+29.5
2
@RUTG
RUTGW 81-65
−0.5
6
vsISU
ISUL 58-81
−15.5
10
vsMINN
MINNW 85-57
−1.5
13
vsMARQ
MARQW 79-59
−16.5
20
vsAUB
AUBW 88-60
−4.5
29
vsKENT
KENTW 101-60
+5.5
3
@WIS
WISW 89-73
+8.5
7
vsWASH
WASHW 81-73
−0.5
10
vsPSU
PSUW 93-85
+25.5
14
vsIOWA
IOWAW 79-72
+5.5
17
@USC
USCW 69-64
−22.5
20
@UCLA
UCLAL 67-69
−11.5
24
vsILL
ILLL 82-88
+17.5
27
@IU
IUL 67-72
−11.5
1
@MD
MDW 93-63
+7.5
7
vsORE
OREW 68-64
−12.5
10
@NEB
NEBW 80-77
+10.5
14
@IOWA
IOWAW 78-57
−7.5
17
vsMICH
MICHL 80-91
+14.5
20
vsIU
IUW 93-64
+6.5
26
vsMSU
MSUL 74-76
+6.5
1
@OSU
OSUL 74-82
+6.5
4
@NU
NUW 70-66
−9.5
over 14under 16avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Wisconsin
21-9 overall · 13-6 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Maryland78–45
- W@ Washington90–73
- L@ Oregon71–85
- Wvs Iowa84–71
- L@ Ohio State69–86
3 days since their last game.
Purdue
23-7 overall · 13-6 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Northwestern70–66
- L@ Ohio State74–82
- Lvs Michigan St74–76
- Wvs Indiana93–64
- Lvs Michigan80–91
3 days since their last game.