Stephen C. O'Connell Center · at Florida · Conference game
Closing line
FLA -20.5✓ FLA covered by 13.5
FLA -20.5✓ FLA covered by 13.5Closing total161.5Over by 20.5
 MSST | This season | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 13-16 | Record | 23-6 |
| 10-19 | ATS | 16-13 |
| 14-15 | O/U | 12-17 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MSST 69–91 FLA · ✓ FLA (97%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSST | 35 | 39 | 74 |
| FLA | 47 | 61 | 108 |
1st half: MSST 35, FLA 47 (FLA by 12). The model had FLA by 12.9 and a total of 75.1 (actual 82).
Team stats
| MSST | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 27-60 45% | Field goals | 45-82 55% |
| 9-26 35% | 3-pointers | 8-22 36% |
| 11-19 58% | Free throws | 10-17 59% |
| 26 6 off | Rebounds | 53 21 off |
| 14 | Assists | 25 |
| 1 | Steals | 7 |
| 2 | Blocks | 4 |
| 13 | Turnovers | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 17 |
| 36 | Points in paint | 70 |
| 12 | Fast-break points | 17 |
Players
| MSST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hubbard G | 36 | 21 | 2 | 5 | 6-15 | 2-7 |
| Jayden Epps G | 28 | 14 | 0 | 4 | 5-11 | 3-7 |
| Jamarion Davis-Fleming F | 23 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Sergej Macura F | 22 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Quincy Ballard C | 20 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2-5 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Ja'Borri McGhee G | 28 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 5-10 | 2-4 |
| King Grace G | 23 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 2-4 | 2-4 |
| Achor Achor F | 19 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 3-7 | 0-3 |
| Dellquan Warren G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Gai Chol, Brandon Walker, Amier Ali, Cameren Paul, Tee Bartlett, Shawn Jones Jr.
| FLA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rueben Chinyelu C | 31 | 11 | 16 | 2 | 5-9 | 0-0 |
| Boogie Fland G | 29 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4-6 | 1-3 |
| Alex Condon F | 26 | 26 | 7 | 3 | 12-19 | 0-1 |
| Xaivian Lee G | 25 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 7-12 | 2-5 |
| Micah Handlogten C | 21 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 5-9 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Isaiah Brown G | 22 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4-7 | 1-2 |
| Urban Klavzar G | 21 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 3-8 | 1-4 |
| CJ Ingram G | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3-5 | 2-3 |
| Viktor Mikic C | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Alex Lloyd G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Alex Kovatchev G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Cooper Josefsberg G | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Olivier Rioux C | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Thomas Haugh, AJ Brown
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketFLA -20.5
ModelFLA -21.8
Model edgeFLA +1.3
W FLA covered
Total
Market161.5
Model160.7
Model edgeUnder 0.8
L Over
Projected score
MSST 69.4 · FLA 91.3
MSST 74 · FLA 108
Win probability
FLA 97%
1st half
Spread
FLA -12.9
FLA -12.0
Total
75.1
82 points
Projected score
MSST 31.1 · FLA 44
MSST 35 · FLA 47
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenFLA -23.5
3 → MSST
CloseFLA -20.5
3 pts toward MSST
Total
Open160.5
▲ 1
Close161.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
MSST +1600 · FLA -4000
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened FLA -23.5 · closed FLA -20.5 · moved 3 toward MSSTmodel FLA -22
model FLA -22
Opened 160.5 · closed 161.5 · moved 1 upmodel 160.5
model 160.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSST | 3-7 30% | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% |
| FLA | 9-1 90% | 7-3 70% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
MSST 1–4 FLAFLA leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · FLA has won the last 2 meetings · MSST 0-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2024-25 | FLA 81 @ MSST 68 | MSST -2.5 | FLA W |
| Jan 24, 2023-24 | MSST 70 @ FLA 79 | FLA -3.5 | FLA W |
| Mar 9, 2022-23 | MSST 69 vs FLA 68 | FLA +4.5 | FLA W |
| Jan 21, 2022-23 | FLA 61 @ MSST 59 | MSST -1.5 | FLA W |
| Jan 19, 2021-22 | MSST 72 @ FLA 80 | FLA -4 | FLA W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Mississippi St
29 games played
Straight up
13-16
45% wins
Against the spread
10-19
34% covers · avg −4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
14-15
48% overs · avg +2.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | vs UNA | W 86-62 | -24.5 | L −0.5 | 151.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 10 | vs ISU | L 80-96 | +5.5 | L −10.5 | 150.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 15 | vs SELA | W 75-68 | -27.5 | L −20.5 | 150.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 20 | vs KSU | L 77-98 | -2.5 | L −23.5 | 164.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 21 | vs UNM | L 78-80 | -6.5 | L −8.5 | 151.5 | O 158 |
| Nov 24 | vs NOLA | W 81-78 | -23.5 | L −20.5 | 160.5 | U 159 |
| Nov 28 | vs SMU | L 81-87 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 162.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 3 | @ GT | W 85-73 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 150.5 | O 158 |
| Dec 7 | vs SF | L 62-65 | -4.5 | L −7.5 | 150.5 | U 127 |
| Dec 13 | vs UTAH | W 82-74 | -1.5 | W +6.5 | 153.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 16 | vs LIU | W 87-83 | -16.5 | L −12.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 20 | vs MEM | W 71-66 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 153.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 29 | vs ALST | W 94-56 | -17.5 | W +20.5 | 154.5 | U 150 |
| Jan 3 | @ TEX | W 101-98 | +9.5 | W +12.5 | 157.5 | O 199 |
| Jan 7 | vs OU | W 72-53 | -1.5 | W +17.5 | 158.5 | U 125 |
| Jan 10 | @ UK | L 68-92 | +10.5 | L −13.5 | 152.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 13 | vs ALA | L 82-97 | +4.5 | L −10.5 | 171.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 17 | vs MISS | L 67-68 | -3.5 | L −4.5 | 147.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 21 | @ TA&M | L 68-88 | +8.5 | L −11.5 | 163.5 | U 156 |
| Jan 24 | vs VAN | L 56-88 | +7.5 | L −24.5 | 159.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 28 | @ LSU | W 80-66 | +7.5 | W +21.5 | 154.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 31 | @ MIZ | L 79-84 | +6.5 | W +1.5 | 146.5 | O 163 |
| Feb 7 | vs ARK | L 68-88 | +5.5 | L −14.5 | 163.5 | U 156 |
| Feb 11 | vs TENN | L 64-73 | +8.5 | L −0.5 | 147.5 | U 137 |
| Feb 14 | @MISS | W 90-78 | +3.5 | W +15.5 | 146.5 | O 168 |
| Feb 18 | vs AUB | W 91-85 | +5.5 | W +11.5 | 155.5 | O 176 |
| Feb 21 | @ SC | L 89-97 | -1.5 | L −9.5 | 151.5 | O 186 |
| Feb 25 | @ALA | L 75-100 | +12.5 | L −12.5 | 176.5 | U 175 |
| Feb 28 | vsMIZ | L 64-88 | +1.5 | L −22.5 | 154.5 | U 152 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
5
vsUNA
UNAW 86-62
−0.5
10
vsISU
ISUL 80-96
−10.5
15
vsSELA
SELAW 75-68
−20.5
20
vsKSU
KSUL 77-98
−23.5
21
vsUNM
UNML 78-80
−8.5
24
vsNOLA
NOLAW 81-78
−20.5
28
vsSMU
SMUL 81-87
−7.5
3
@GT
GTW 85-73
+10.5
7
vsSF
SFL 62-65
−7.5
13
vsUTAH
UTAHW 82-74
+6.5
16
vsLIU
LIUW 87-83
−12.5
20
vsMEM
MEMW 71-66
+1.5
29
vsALST
ALSTW 94-56
+20.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 101-98
+12.5
7
vsOU
OUW 72-53
+17.5
10
@UK
UKL 68-92
−13.5
13
vsALA
ALAL 82-97
−10.5
17
vsMISS
MISSL 67-68
−4.5
21
@TA&M
TA&ML 68-88
−11.5
24
vsVAN
VANL 56-88
−24.5
28
@LSU
LSUW 80-66
+21.5
31
@MIZ
MIZL 79-84
+1.5
7
vsARK
ARKL 68-88
−14.5
11
vsTENN
TENNL 64-73
−0.5
14
@MISS
MISSW 90-78
+15.5
18
vsAUB
AUBW 91-85
+11.5
21
@SC
SCL 89-97
−9.5
25
@ALA
ALAL 75-100
−12.5
28
vsMIZ
MIZL 64-88
−22.5
covered 10didn’t cover 19avg −4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
5
vsUNA
UNAW 86-62
−3.5
10
vsISU
ISUL 80-96
+25.5
15
vsSELA
SELAW 75-68
−7.5
20
vsKSU
KSUL 77-98
+10.5
21
vsUNM
UNML 78-80
+6.5
24
vsNOLA
NOLAW 81-78
−1.5
28
vsSMU
SMUL 81-87
+5.5
3
@GT
GTW 85-73
+7.5
7
vsSF
SFL 62-65
−23.5
13
vsUTAH
UTAHW 82-74
+2.5
16
vsLIU
LIUW 87-83
+17.5
20
vsMEM
MEMW 71-66
−16.5
29
vsALST
ALSTW 94-56
−4.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 101-98
+41.5
7
vsOU
OUW 72-53
−33.5
10
@UK
UKL 68-92
+7.5
13
vsALA
ALAL 82-97
+7.5
17
vsMISS
MISSL 67-68
−12.5
21
@TA&M
TA&ML 68-88
−7.5
24
vsVAN
VANL 56-88
−15.5
28
@LSU
LSUW 80-66
−8.5
31
@MIZ
MIZL 79-84
+16.5
7
vsARK
ARKL 68-88
−7.5
11
vsTENN
TENNL 64-73
−10.5
14
@MISS
MISSW 90-78
+21.5
18
vsAUB
AUBW 91-85
+20.5
21
@SC
SCL 89-97
+34.5
25
@ALA
ALAL 75-100
−1.5
28
vsMIZ
MIZL 64-88
−2.5
over 14under 15avg +2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Florida
29 games played
Straight up
23-6
79% wins
Against the spread
16-13
55% covers · avg +1.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
12-17
41% overs · avg −2.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs ARIZ | L 87-93 | -3.5 | L −9.5 | 164.5 | O 180 |
| Nov 6 | vs UNF | W 104-64 | -43.5 | L −3.5 | 169.5 | U 168 |
| Nov 11 | vs FSU | W 78-76 | -17.5 | L −15.5 | 180.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 16 | vs MIA | W 82-68 | -10.5 | W +3.5 | 171.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 21 | vs MRMK | W 80-45 | -36.5 | L −1.5 | 158.5 | U 125 |
| Nov 27 | vs TCU | L 80-84 | -11.5 | L −15.5 | 155.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 28 | vs PROV | W 90-78 | -12.5 | L −0.5 | 169.5 | U 168 |
| Dec 2 | @ DUKE | L 66-67 | +9.5 | W +8.5 | 157.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 9 | vs CONN | L 73-77 | +4.5 | W +0.5 | 145.5 | O 150 |
| Dec 13 | vs GW | W 80-70 | -14.5 | L −4.5 | 162.5 | U 150 |
| Dec 17 | vs SFPA | W 102-61 | -44.5 | L −3.5 | 156.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 21 | vs COLG | W 90-60 | -27.5 | W +2.5 | 156.5 | U 150 |
| Dec 29 | vs DART | W 94-72 | -35.5 | L −13.5 | 160.5 | O 166 |
| Jan 3 | @MIZ | L 74-76 | -7.5 | L −9.5 | 154.5 | U 150 |
| Jan 6 | vs UGA | W 92-77 | -9.5 | W +5.5 | 172.5 | U 169 |
| Jan 10 | vsTENN | W 91-67 | -4.5 | W +19.5 | 151.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 13 | @OU | W 96-79 | -7.5 | W +9.5 | 157.5 | O 175 |
| Jan 17 | @VAN | W 98-94 | -1.5 | W +2.5 | 164.5 | O 192 |
| Jan 20 | vsLSU | W 79-61 | -15.5 | W +2.5 | 158.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 24 | vsAUB | L 67-76 | -11.5 | L −20.5 | 159.5 | U 143 |
| Jan 28 | @SC | W 95-48 | -13.5 | W +33.5 | 151.5 | U 143 |
| Feb 1 | vsALA | W 100-77 | -9.5 | W +13.5 | 176.5 | O 177 |
| Feb 7 | @TA&M | W 86-67 | -5.5 | W +13.5 | 167.5 | U 153 |
| Feb 11 | @UGA | W 86-66 | -8.5 | W +11.5 | 164.5 | U 152 |
| Feb 14 | vsUK | W 92-83 | -12.5 | L −3.5 | 154.5 | O 175 |
| Feb 17 | vsSC | W 76-62 | -23.5 | L −9.5 | 156.5 | U 138 |
| Feb 21 | @MISS | W 94-75 | -13.5 | W +5.5 | 152.5 | O 169 |
| Feb 25 | @TEX | W 84-71 | -6.5 | W +6.5 | 157.5 | U 155 |
| Feb 28 | vsARK | W 111-77 | -9.5 | W +24.5 | 169.5 | O 188 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsARIZ
ARIZL 87-93
−9.5
6
vsUNF
UNFW 104-64
−3.5
11
vsFSU
FSUW 78-76
−15.5
16
vsMIA
MIAW 82-68
+3.5
21
vsMRMK
MRMKW 80-45
−1.5
27
vsTCU
TCUL 80-84
−15.5
28
vsPROV
PROVW 90-78
−0.5
2
@DUKE
DUKEL 66-67
+8.5
9
vsCONN
CONNL 73-77
+0.5
13
vsGW
GWW 80-70
−4.5
17
vsSFPA
SFPAW 102-61
−3.5
21
vsCOLG
COLGW 90-60
+2.5
29
vsDART
DARTW 94-72
−13.5
3
@MIZ
MIZL 74-76
−9.5
6
vsUGA
UGAW 92-77
+5.5
10
vsTENN
TENNW 91-67
+19.5
13
@OU
OUW 96-79
+9.5
17
@VAN
VANW 98-94
+2.5
20
vsLSU
LSUW 79-61
+2.5
24
vsAUB
AUBL 67-76
−20.5
28
@SC
SCW 95-48
+33.5
1
vsALA
ALAW 100-77
+13.5
7
@TA&M
TA&MW 86-67
+13.5
11
@UGA
UGAW 86-66
+11.5
14
vsUK
UKW 92-83
−3.5
17
vsSC
SCW 76-62
−9.5
21
@MISS
MISSW 94-75
+5.5
25
@TEX
TEXW 84-71
+6.5
28
vsARK
ARKW 111-77
+24.5
covered 16didn’t cover 13avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsARIZ
ARIZL 87-93
+15.5
6
vsUNF
UNFW 104-64
−1.5
11
vsFSU
FSUW 78-76
−26.5
16
vsMIA
MIAW 82-68
−21.5
21
vsMRMK
MRMKW 80-45
−33.5
27
vsTCU
TCUL 80-84
+8.5
28
vsPROV
PROVW 90-78
−1.5
2
@DUKE
DUKEL 66-67
−24.5
9
vsCONN
CONNL 73-77
+4.5
13
vsGW
GWW 80-70
−12.5
17
vsSFPA
SFPAW 102-61
+6.5
21
vsCOLG
COLGW 90-60
−6.5
29
vsDART
DARTW 94-72
+5.5
3
@MIZ
MIZL 74-76
−4.5
6
vsUGA
UGAW 92-77
−3.5
10
vsTENN
TENNW 91-67
+6.5
13
@OU
OUW 96-79
+17.5
17
@VAN
VANW 98-94
+27.5
20
vsLSU
LSUW 79-61
−18.5
24
vsAUB
AUBL 67-76
−16.5
28
@SC
SCW 95-48
−8.5
1
vsALA
ALAW 100-77
+0.5
7
@TA&M
TA&MW 86-67
−14.5
11
@UGA
UGAW 86-66
−12.5
14
vsUK
UKW 92-83
+20.5
17
vsSC
SCW 76-62
−18.5
21
@MISS
MISSW 94-75
+16.5
25
@TEX
TEXW 84-71
−2.5
28
vsARK
ARKW 111-77
+18.5
over 12under 17avg −2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Mississippi St
13-16 overall · 5-11 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Missouri64–88
- L@ Alabama75–100
- L@ South Carolina89–97
- Wvs Auburn91–85
- W@ Ole Miss90–78
3 days since their last game.
Florida
23-6 overall · 14-2 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Arkansas111–77
- W@ Texas84–71
- W@ Ole Miss94–75
- Wvs South Carolina76–62
- Wvs Kentucky92–83
3 days since their last game.