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NCAAB · Sat, Nov 21

Drake @ Missouri St

Great Southern Bank Arena · at Missouri St
#144DRKEDrake
@
#250MOSTMissouri St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
DRKEThis seasonMOST
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DRKE 75–71 · win probability DRKE 62%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 146.2
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DRKE has more of the edges

DRKE 3, MOST 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
DRKEBig
MOST offense vs DRKE defense
Offense 275th of 366 against a defense 133rd, on the model’s ratings
MOSTSmall
Home court
MOST at home. This season: MOST 0-0 at home, DRKE 0-0 away
DRKESmall
DRKE offense vs MOST defense
Offense 168th of 366 against a defense 219th, on the model’s ratings
DRKESmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: DRKE 51%, MOST 25%. Transfers in: DRKE 3, MOST 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: DRKE 26.6%, MOST 32.0%. Defensive: DRKE 70.1%, MOST 68.0%
Context
Schedule so far
DRKE has played the 147th-hardest schedule, MOST the 180th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: DRKE plays 68.4 a game (209th fastest), MOST 67.4 (261st). Faster games mean more points
Even
Three-pointers
DRKE hits 34.0% and allows 36.4%; MOST hits 33.0% and allows 34.4%. Threes are 45.7% and 41.3% of their shots
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: DRKE 15.0%, MOST 16.7%. Forced: DRKE 14.6%, MOST 16.9%
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: DRKE 51.4 and allows 52.6; MOST 51.1 and allows 52.0
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: DRKE 33.5, MOST 43.8. Allowed: DRKE 32.0, MOST 40.2
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelDRKE -3.5
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model146.2
Model edge—
Projected score
DRKE 74.8 · MOST 71.4
Win probability
DRKE 62%
1st half
Spread
DRKE -2.2
Total
68.4
Projected score
DRKE 35.3 · MOST 33.1
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Drake has the better starters

Position by position: Drake 1, Missouri St 0, even 4
DrakeBetterMissouri St
G A. Alia6.8 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.4 ast Score 27
Even
G T. Williams9.2 pts · 1.9 reb · 3.2 ast Score 34
G O. Larson10 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.8 ast Score 42
Even
G M. Cunningham3.1 pts · 2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 43
G E. Shetlar9 pts · 4.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 57
DRKEBig
F C. Boone1.3 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.1 ast Score 19
F G. Oldham TR5.5 pts · 7.5 reb · 1 ast Score 21
No call
F M. Gray NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
F J. Carroll TR10.7 pts · 8.1 reb · 0.6 ast Score 78
No call
F C. Thompson NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
DrakeBetterMissouri St
DRKE offense168th of 366 · -5.1
Even
MOST defense219th of 366 · -5.7
DRKE defense133rd of 366 · -2.5
DRKEBig
MOST offense275th of 366 · -8.4
Backcourt-3.7 · 3 players
MOSTSmall
Backcourt-2.2 · 2 players
Frontcourt-0.5 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt-0.6 · 3 players
Bench+0.1 · 2 players
No call
BenchNo numbers yet
Score, worst to bestDRKE betterMOST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Drake
Guards
A. Alia32 minO. Larson29 minE. Shetlar28 minD. Kindell17 min · TRD. IjadimbolaNewL. RushNew
Forwards
G. Oldham26 min · TRJ. Carroll25 min · TRG. Goodbary13 minJ. BurnsNewM. FlemonsNew
Missouri St
Guards
T. Williams31 minM. Cunningham12 minK. StubblefieldNewJ. BlairNewD. RoweNew
Forwards
C. Boone8 minM. GrayNewC. ThompsonNewN. RueyNewL. RolleNewI. MedinaNew
Centers
A. AcimovicNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
DRKEMOST
Scoring
73.9 #200Points per game73.1 #223
1.08 #182Points per possession1.09 #169
68.4 #209Pace (possessions)67.4 #261
Shooting
51.4 #179Effective FG%51.1 #191
34.0 #1723-point %33.0 #236
45.7 #533-point attempt rate41.3 #144
33.5 #223Free throw rate43.8 #12
Possessions
15.0 #64Turnover rate16.7 #180
26.6 #310Offensive rebound rate32.0 #124
13.1 #202Assists per game13.9 #155
Defense
76.3 #225Points allowed74.3 #166
1.12 #261Points allowed per possession1.10 #222
52.6 #246Opponent effective FG%52.0 #217
36.4 #323Opponent 3-point %34.4 #209
14.6 #315Turnovers forced16.9 #158
70.1 #155Defensive rebound rate68.0 #261
5.2 #319Steals per game6.7 #152
2.9 #241Blocks per game3.0 #215
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Drake

12-20 in 2025-26 overall · 8-15 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UIC51–72
  • Wvs Belmont100–79
  • Wvs S Illinois67–63
  • Lvs Northern Iowa53–75
  • L@ Valparaiso71–74

A week or more of rest.

Missouri St

13-18 in 2025-26 overall · 10-13 in conference · Conference USA

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Louisiana Tech66–69
  • Wvs Liberty77–69
  • Wvs FIU75–72
  • Lvs MTSU63–75
  • Wvs Western KY87–74

A week or more of rest.