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NCAAB · Sat, Nov 21

Southern Miss vs Nicholls

Pensacola Bay Center · Neutral site
#224USMSouthern Miss
vs
#285NICHNicholls
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
USMThis seasonNICH
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects USM 76–73 · win probability USM 60%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 149.0
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: USM has more of the edges

USM 4, NICH 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
USMBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: USM 32.5%, NICH 28.1%. Defensive: USM 71.2%, NICH 66.3%
Context
Schedule so far
USM has played the 185th-hardest schedule, NICH the 277th. A record against a soft schedule means less
USMSmall
USM offense vs NICH defense
Offense 203rd of 366 against a defense 282nd, on the model’s ratings
NICHSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: USM 18.4%, NICH 17.4%. Forced: USM 17.8%, NICH 20.5%
NICHSmall
Three-pointers
USM hits 28.9% and allows 34.5%; NICH hits 33.3% and allows 34.6%. Threes are 28.7% and 43.9% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: USM plays 70.1 a game (113th fastest), NICH 68.3 (210th). Faster games mean more points
USMSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: USM 43.2, NICH 34.5. Allowed: USM 43.6, NICH 37.9
USMSmall
NICH offense vs USM defense
Offense 283rd of 366 against a defense 239th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: USM 49.0 and allows 51.4; NICH 50.6 and allows 54.4
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: USM 23%, NICH 20%. Transfers in: USM 3, NICH 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelUSM -2.9
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model149.0
Model edge—
Projected score
USM 75.9 · NICH 73.1
Win probability
USM 60%
1st half
Spread
USM -1.8
Total
69.7
Projected score
USM 35.8 · NICH 33.9
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Southern Miss 1, Nicholls 1, even 3
Southern MissBetterNicholls
G J. Gaines-Wyatt TR11.8 pts · 1.5 reb · 2.9 ast Score 59
NICHSmall
G D. Cockrill TR11.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 2 ast Score 75
G I. Taveras15.4 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.2 ast Score 90
USMBig
G C. Winborne7.9 pts · 1.7 reb · 1 ast Score 29
G B. Carruth2.6 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.3 ast Score 6
Even
G S. Sharp4.1 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.1 ast Score 19
F C. Wallace TR12.1 pts · 6.8 reb · 1.7 ast Score 53
No call
F A. Dent TR6 pts · 0 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
F M. Overstreet TR2.4 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.3 ast Score 39
No call
F J. Sileu TR0.3 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
Southern MissBetterNicholls
USM offense203rd of 366 · -6.3
USMSmall
NICH defense282nd of 366 · -7.0
USM defense239th of 366 · -6.3
Even
NICH offense283rd of 366 · -8.7
Backcourt+0.4 · 3 players
USMSmall
Backcourt-2.5 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.5 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt-0.7 · 2 players
Bench-0.9 · 1 player
Even
Bench-0.3 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestUSM betterNICH betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Southern Miss
Guards
J. Gaines-Wyatt27 min · TRI. Taveras27 minB. Carruth12 minB. WestonNewA. IgiedeNewC. CereseNew
Forwards
C. Wallace29 min · TRM. Overstreet10 min · TRM. MontanoNew
Centers
F. Diagne6 minM. BlankNew
Nicholls
Guards
D. Cockrill24 min · TRC. Winborne23 minS. Sharp17 minH. Carter4 min · TRC. Simpson3 min · TRJ. Matthews2 min
Forwards
A. Dent13 min · TRJ. Sileu7 min · TRA. Arop2 min · TRM. MboupNewJ. TaylorNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
USMNICH
Scoring
73.9 #197Points per game71.0 #266
1.05 #242Points per possession1.04 #275
70.1 #113Pace (possessions)68.3 #210
Shooting
49.0 #289Effective FG%50.6 #205
28.9 #3553-point %33.3 #215
28.7 #3583-point attempt rate43.9 #90
43.2 #18Free throw rate34.5 #195
Possessions
18.4 #290Turnover rate17.4 #232
32.5 #103Offensive rebound rate28.1 #263
11.2 #330Assists per game12.9 #219
Defense
74.8 #183Points allowed75.7 #209
1.07 #127Points allowed per possession1.11 #243
51.4 #177Opponent effective FG%54.4 #311
34.5 #217Opponent 3-point %34.6 #224
17.8 #109Turnovers forced20.5 #15
71.2 #97Defensive rebound rate66.3 #314
7.3 #98Steals per game8.7 #15
3.6 #127Blocks per game2.8 #270
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Southern Miss

17-16 in 2025-26 overall · 12-10 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Troy70–78
  • Wvs App State86–73
  • Wvs Texas St81–77
  • Wvs James Madison86–80
  • W@ South Alabama68–55

A week or more of rest.

Nicholls

13-19 in 2025-26 overall · 13-11 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UT Rio Grande68–86
  • Wvs N'Western St61–47
  • Lvs McNeese65–75
  • Wvs SE Louisiana68–60
  • W@ Lamar53–52

A week or more of rest.