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NCAAB · Wed, Dec 2

Valparaiso @ UIC

Credit Union 1 Arena · at UIC · Conference game
#176VALValparaiso
@
#110UICUIC
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
VALThis seasonUIC
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UIC 77–68 · win probability UIC 79%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 145.2
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UIC has more of the edges

VAL 1, UIC 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
VALSmall
Three-pointers
VAL hits 33.9% and allows 32.1%; UIC hits 31.6% and allows 33.4%. Threes are 36.8% and 32.8% of their shots
UICSmall
VAL offense vs UIC defense
Offense 199th of 366 against a defense 106th, on the model’s ratings
UICSmall
UIC offense vs VAL defense
Offense 117th of 366 against a defense 170th, on the model’s ratings
UICSmall
Home court
UIC at home. This season: UIC 0-0 at home, VAL 0-0 away
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: VAL 47.6 and allows 50.5; UIC 49.8 and allows 50.5
Context
Schedule so far
VAL has played the 143rd-hardest schedule, UIC the 161st. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: VAL 39.1, UIC 36.2. Allowed: VAL 35.1, UIC 33.9
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: VAL 51%, UIC 60%. Transfers in: VAL 2, UIC 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: VAL plays 67.4 a game (258th fastest), UIC 68.1 (227th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: VAL 15.7%, UIC 17.6%. Forced: VAL 16.9%, UIC 19.7%
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: VAL 32.5%, UIC 36.3%. Defensive: VAL 69.9%, UIC 68.0%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UIC -9.3—
Total—145.2—
Projected score—VAL 67.9 · UIC 77.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUIC -5.4—
1H total67.9—
1H projected scoreVAL 31.3 · UIC 36.7—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

UIC has the better starters

Position by position: Valparaiso 0, UIC 3, even 2
ValparaisoBetterUIC
G R. Chaney10.6 pts · 3.4 reb · 2.8 ast Score 62
UICSmall
G B. Gealer TR10.9 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.7 ast Score 79
G B. Alocen TR6.4 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.5 ast Score 34
UICSmall
G A. Johnson11 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 55
G J. McNair7.9 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 65
Even
G A. Thomas TR11.7 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 69
F J. Pettigrew12.6 pts · 6.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 70
Even
G M. Lowery7.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 2 ast Score 59
F C. Hopoi3.5 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.6 ast Score 23
UICBig
G R. Washington8.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 0.6 ast Score 77
ValparaisoBetterUIC
VAL offense199th of 366 · -6.1
UICSmall
UIC defense106th of 366 · -1.0
VAL defense170th of 366 · -3.9
Even
UIC offense117th of 366 · -2.6
Backcourt-1.1 · 3 players
UICBig
Backcourt+2.1 · 5 players
Frontcourt-0.1 · 2 players
No call
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
Bench-0.5 · 4 players
UICSmall
Bench+0.5 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestVAL betterUIC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Valparaiso
Guards
R. Chaney29 minB. Alocen22 min · TRJ. McNair18 minS. Servilus10 minN. Lombardi1 minC. Webster1 min
Forwards
J. Pettigrew28 minC. Hopoi15 minK. WalkerNewG. RichardsonNewH. ScrogginsNew
Centers
K. Yu8 min · TR
UIC
Guards
B. Gealer30 min · TRA. Johnson29 minA. Thomas28 min · TRM. Lowery26 minR. Washington23 minA. Henderson21 min
Forwards
J. Nathaniel20 minL. Scroggins17 min · TRN. BarrantesNewD. HudsonNewD. ShawNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
VALUIC
Scoring
71.2 #263Points per game73.9 #196
1.06 #233Points per possession1.09 #171
67.4 #258Pace (possessions)68.1 #227
Shooting
47.6 #322Effective FG%49.8 #245
33.9 #1803-point %31.6 #300
36.8 #2343-point attempt rate32.8 #319
39.1 #79Free throw rate36.2 #145
Possessions
15.7 #116Turnover rate17.6 #247
32.5 #110Offensive rebound rate36.3 #22
11.7 #307Assists per game14.1 #143
Defense
71.9 #103Points allowed71.2 #81
1.06 #116Points allowed per possession1.05 #83
50.5 #130Opponent effective FG%50.5 #125
32.1 #70Opponent 3-point %33.4 #147
16.9 #161Turnovers forced19.7 #30
69.9 #167Defensive rebound rate68.0 #255
5.9 #245Steals per game7.6 #70
3.6 #124Blocks per game3.6 #126
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Valparaiso

17-15 in 2025-26 overall · 12-10 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Bradley84–90
  • Wvs Indiana St63–62
  • L@ Evansville79–80
  • Wvs Drake74–71
  • W@ UIC71–67

A week or more of rest.

UIC

17-16 in 2025-26 overall · 14-9 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ California73–91
  • Lvs Northern Iowa69–84
  • Wvs Drake72–51
  • Wvs Murray St92–79
  • L@ Indiana St63–79

A week or more of rest.