Purcell Pavilion · at Notre Dame
LineNo line yet
Total—
 VAN | This season | ND |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 1-0 |
| 0-0 | ATS | 1-0 |
| 0-0 | O/U | 1-0 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects VAN 80–74 · win probability VAN 69%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 154.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: VAN has more of the edges
VAN 3, ND 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
VANBigTurnovers
Turnover rate: VAN 13.5%, ND 16.9%. Forced: VAN 17.7%, ND 14.0%
VANBigShooting
Effective FG%: VAN 55.3 and allows 49.0; ND 52.3 and allows 51.8
NDSmallRebounding
Offensive rebound rate: VAN 31.2%, ND 31.2%. Defensive: VAN 68.5%, ND 73.3%
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: VAN plays 70.9 a game (80th fastest), ND 67.7 (239th). Faster games mean more points
NDSmallHome court
ND at home. This season: ND 0-0 at home, VAN 0-0 away
Context
Schedule so far
VAN has played the 21st-hardest schedule, ND the 69th. A record against a soft schedule means less
VANSmallND offense vs VAN defense
Offense 76th of 366 against a defense 29th, on the model’s ratings
Even
VAN offense vs ND defense
Offense 22nd of 366 against a defense 63rd, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: VAN 26%, ND 38%. Transfers in: VAN 5, ND 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Three-pointers
VAN hits 35.6% and allows 32.6%; ND hits 35.6% and allows 33.2%. Threes are 44.2% and 43.5% of their shots
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: VAN 38.1, ND 34.1. Allowed: VAN 39.5, ND 36.2
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | — | VAN -5.7 | — |
| Total | — | 154.3 | — |
| Projected score | — | VAN 80 · ND 74.3 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | VAN -3.5 | — |
| 1H total | 72.1 | — |
| 1H projected score | VAN 37.8 · ND 34.3 | — |
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.
Last 10 games
2025-26
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
| ND | 2-8 20% | 4-6 40% | 9-1 90% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Vanderbilt
36 games played
Straight up
27-9
75% wins
Against the spread
18-18
50% covers · avg +0.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
17-19
47% overs · avg +1.2 pts vs the total
Against the spread
18-1850%
3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs LIP | W 105-61 | -26.5 | W +17.5 | 154.5 | O 166 |
| Nov 8 | @ UCF | W 105-93 | -10.5 | W +1.5 | 166.5 | O 198 |
| Nov 12 | vs EKU | W 92-62 | -28.5 | W +1.5 | 168.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 15 | vs UAPB | W 104-75 | -41.5 | L −12.5 | 172.5 | O 179 |
| Nov 20 | vs TXSO | W 109-74 | -36.5 | L −1.5 | 164.5 | O 183 |
| Nov 26 | vs WKU | W 83-78 | -18.5 | L −13.5 | 168.5 | U 161 |
| Nov 27 | vs VCU | W 89-74 | -6.5 | W +8.5 | 161.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 28 | vs SMC | W 96-71 | -4.5 | W +20.5 | 149.5 | O 167 |
| Dec 3 | vs SMU | W 88-69 | -10.5 | W +8.5 | 165.5 | U 157 |
| Dec 13 | vs CARK | W 83-72 | -36.5 | L −25.5 | 158.5 | U 155 |
| Dec 17 | @ MEM | W 77-70 | -9.5 | L −2.5 | 159.5 | U 147 |
| Dec 21 | @ WAKE | W 98-67 | -5.5 | W +25.5 | 164.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 29 | vs NHVN | W 96-53 | -39.5 | W +3.5 | 145.5 | O 149 |
| Jan 3 | @ SC | W 83-71 | -9.5 | W +2.5 | 155.5 | U 154 |
| Jan 7 | vs ALA | W 96-90 | -3.5 | W +2.5 | 176.5 | O 186 |
| Jan 10 | vs LSU | W 84-73 | -13.5 | L −2.5 | 159.5 | U 157 |
| Jan 14 | @ TEX | L 64-80 | -3.5 | L −19.5 | 163.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 17 | vs FLA | L 94-98 | +1.5 | L −2.5 | 164.5 | O 192 |
| Jan 20 | @ ARK | L 68-93 | +1.5 | L −23.5 | 173.5 | U 161 |
| Jan 24 | @ MSST | W 88-56 | -7.5 | W +24.5 | 159.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 27 | vs UK | W 80-55 | -5.5 | W +19.5 | 155.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 31 | vs MISS | W 71-68 | -10.5 | L −7.5 | 149.5 | U 139 |
| Feb 7 | vs OU | L 91-92 | -11.5 | L −12.5 | 159.5 | O 183 |
| Feb 10 | @ AUB | W 84-76 | +3.5 | W +11.5 | 161.5 | U 160 |
| Feb 14 | vs TA&M | W 82-69 | -7.5 | W +5.5 | 165.5 | U 151 |
| Feb 18 | @ MIZ | L 80-81 | -3.5 | L −4.5 | 154.5 | O 161 |
| Feb 21 | vs TENN | L 65-69 | -2.5 | L −6.5 | 150.5 | U 134 |
| Feb 25 | vs UGA | W 88-80 | -7.5 | W +0.5 | 163.5 | O 168 |
| Feb 28 | @UK | L 77-91 | +1.5 | L −12.5 | 157.5 | O 168 |
| Mar 3 | @MISS | W 89-86 | -7.5 | L −4.5 | 155.5 | O 175 |
| Mar 7 | @TENN | W 86-82 | +2.5 | W +6.5 | 146.5 | O 168 |
| Mar 13 | vsTENN | W 75-68 | +1.5 | W +8.5 | 147.5 | U 143 |
| Mar 14 | vsFLA | W 91-74 | +7.5 | W +24.5 | 161.5 | O 165 |
| Mar 15 | vsARK | L 75-86 | -2.5 | L −13.5 | 165.5 | U 161 |
| Mar 19 | vs MCN | W 78-68 | -12.5 | L −2.5 | 148.5 | U 146 |
| Mar 21 | vs NEB | L 72-74 | -1.5 | L −3.5 | 146.5 | U 146 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsLIP
LIPW 105-61
+17.5
8
@UCF
UCFW 105-93
+1.5
12
vsEKU
EKUW 92-62
+1.5
15
vsUAPB
UAPBW 104-75
−12.5
20
vsTXSO
TXSOW 109-74
−1.5
26
vsWKU
WKUW 83-78
−13.5
27
vsVCU
VCUW 89-74
+8.5
28
vsSMC
SMCW 96-71
+20.5
3
vsSMU
SMUW 88-69
+8.5
13
vsCARK
CARKW 83-72
−25.5
17
@MEM
MEMW 77-70
−2.5
21
@WAKE
WAKEW 98-67
+25.5
29
vsNHVN
NHVNW 96-53
+3.5
3
@SC
SCW 83-71
+2.5
7
vsALA
ALAW 96-90
+2.5
10
vsLSU
LSUW 84-73
−2.5
14
@TEX
TEXL 64-80
−19.5
17
vsFLA
FLAL 94-98
−2.5
20
@ARK
ARKL 68-93
−23.5
24
@MSST
MSSTW 88-56
+24.5
27
vsUK
UKW 80-55
+19.5
31
vsMISS
MISSW 71-68
−7.5
7
vsOU
OUL 91-92
−12.5
10
@AUB
AUBW 84-76
+11.5
14
vsTA&M
TA&MW 82-69
+5.5
18
@MIZ
MIZL 80-81
−4.5
21
vsTENN
TENNL 65-69
−6.5
25
vsUGA
UGAW 88-80
+0.5
28
@UK
UKL 77-91
−12.5
3
@MISS
MISSW 89-86
−4.5
7
@TENN
TENNW 86-82
+6.5
13
vsTENN
TENNW 75-68
+8.5
14
vsFLA
FLAW 91-74
+24.5
15
vsARK
ARKL 75-86
−13.5
19
vsMCN
MCNW 78-68
−2.5
21
vsNEB
NEBL 72-74
−3.5
covered 18didn’t cover 18avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsLIP
LIPW 105-61
+11.5
8
@UCF
UCFW 105-93
+31.5
12
vsEKU
EKUW 92-62
−14.5
15
vsUAPB
UAPBW 104-75
+6.5
20
vsTXSO
TXSOW 109-74
+18.5
26
vsWKU
WKUW 83-78
−7.5
27
vsVCU
VCUW 89-74
+1.5
28
vsSMC
SMCW 96-71
+17.5
3
vsSMU
SMUW 88-69
−8.5
13
vsCARK
CARKW 83-72
−3.5
17
@MEM
MEMW 77-70
−12.5
21
@WAKE
WAKEW 98-67
+0.5
29
vsNHVN
NHVNW 96-53
+3.5
3
@SC
SCW 83-71
−1.5
7
vsALA
ALAW 96-90
+9.5
10
vsLSU
LSUW 84-73
−2.5
14
@TEX
TEXL 64-80
−19.5
17
vsFLA
FLAL 94-98
+27.5
20
@ARK
ARKL 68-93
−12.5
24
@MSST
MSSTW 88-56
−15.5
27
vsUK
UKW 80-55
−20.5
31
vsMISS
MISSW 71-68
−10.5
7
vsOU
OUL 91-92
+23.5
10
@AUB
AUBW 84-76
−1.5
14
vsTA&M
TA&MW 82-69
−14.5
18
@MIZ
MIZL 80-81
+6.5
21
vsTENN
TENNL 65-69
−16.5
25
vsUGA
UGAW 88-80
+4.5
28
@UK
UKL 77-91
+10.5
3
@MISS
MISSW 89-86
+19.5
7
@TENN
TENNW 86-82
+21.5
13
vsTENN
TENNW 75-68
−4.5
14
vsFLA
FLAW 91-74
+3.5
15
vsARK
ARKL 75-86
−4.5
19
vsMCN
MCNW 78-68
−2.5
21
vsNEB
NEBL 72-74
−0.5
over 17under 19avg +1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Notre Dame
31 games played
Straight up
13-18
42% wins
Against the spread
15-16
48% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
22-9
71% overs · avg +4.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs LIU | W 89-67 | -15.5 | W +6.5 | 135.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 7 | vs DETM | W 102-70 | -21.5 | W +10.5 | 147.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 11 | vs EIU | W 78-58 | -23.5 | L −3.5 | 143.5 | U 136 |
| Nov 16 | @ OSU | L 63-64 | +9.5 | W +8.5 | 156.5 | U 127 |
| Nov 19 | vs BELL | W 86-79 | -24.5 | L −17.5 | 150.5 | O 165 |
| Nov 24 | vs KU | L 61-71 | +5.5 | L −4.5 | 143.5 | U 132 |
| Nov 25 | vs RUTG | W 68-63 | -6.5 | L −1.5 | 140.5 | U 131 |
| Nov 26 | vs HOU | L 56-66 | +11.5 | W +1.5 | 132.5 | U 122 |
| Dec 2 | vsMIZ | W 76-71 | +1.5 | W +6.5 | 146.5 | O 147 |
| Dec 5 | @ TCU | W 87-85 | +6.5 | W +8.5 | 141.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 10 | vs IDHO | W 80-65 | -11.5 | W +3.5 | 144.5 | O 145 |
| Dec 13 | vs EVAN | W 82-58 | -14.5 | W +9.5 | 136.5 | O 140 |
| Dec 21 | vs PFW | L 69-72 | -11.5 | L −14.5 | 149.5 | U 141 |
| Dec 30 | @ STAN | W 47-40 | +6.5 | W +13.5 | 143.5 | U 87 |
| Jan 2 | @ CAL | L 71-72 | +3.5 | W +2.5 | 138.5 | O 143 |
| Jan 10 | vs CLEM | L 61-76 | +3.5 | L −11.5 | 133.5 | O 137 |
| Jan 13 | vs MIA | L 69-81 | +5.5 | L −6.5 | 143.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 17 | @ VT | L 76-89 | +6.5 | L −6.5 | 143.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 21 | @ UNC | L 69-91 | +13.5 | L −8.5 | 149.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 24 | vs BC | W 68-64 | -7.5 | L −3.5 | 137.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 27 | vs UVA | L 97-100 | +9.5 | W +6.5 | 145.5 | O 197 |
| Jan 31 | @ SYR | L 72-86 | +6.5 | L −7.5 | 147.5 | O 158 |
| Feb 4 | @ LOU | L 65-76 | +19.5 | W +8.5 | 155.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 7 | vs FSU | L 79-82 | -1.5 | L −4.5 | 154.5 | O 161 |
| Feb 10 | @SMU | L 81-89 | +10.5 | W +2.5 | 154.5 | O 170 |
| Feb 14 | vs GT | W 89-74 | -5.5 | W +9.5 | 150.5 | O 163 |
| Feb 21 | @ PITT | L 68-73 | +3.5 | L −1.5 | 140.5 | O 141 |
| Feb 24 | vs DUKE | L 56-100 | +16.5 | L −27.5 | 141.5 | O 156 |
| Feb 28 | vs NCSU | W 96-90 | +6.5 | W +12.5 | 153.5 | O 186 |
| Mar 4 | vsSTAN | L 78-86 | +1.5 | L −6.5 | 147.5 | O 164 |
| Mar 7 | @BC | L 69-77 | -1.5 | L −9.5 | 141.5 | O 146 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsLIU
LIUW 89-67
+6.5
7
vsDETM
DETMW 102-70
+10.5
11
vsEIU
EIUW 78-58
−3.5
16
@OSU
OSUL 63-64
+8.5
19
vsBELL
BELLW 86-79
−17.5
24
vsKU
KUL 61-71
−4.5
25
vsRUTG
RUTGW 68-63
−1.5
26
vsHOU
HOUL 56-66
+1.5
2
vsMIZ
MIZW 76-71
+6.5
5
@TCU
TCUW 87-85
+8.5
10
vsIDHO
IDHOW 80-65
+3.5
13
vsEVAN
EVANW 82-58
+9.5
21
vsPFW
PFWL 69-72
−14.5
30
@STAN
STANW 47-40
+13.5
2
@CAL
CALL 71-72
+2.5
10
vsCLEM
CLEML 61-76
−11.5
13
vsMIA
MIAL 69-81
−6.5
17
@VT
VTL 76-89
−6.5
21
@UNC
UNCL 69-91
−8.5
24
vsBC
BCW 68-64
−3.5
27
vsUVA
UVAL 97-100
+6.5
31
@SYR
SYRL 72-86
−7.5
4
@LOU
LOUL 65-76
+8.5
7
vsFSU
FSUL 79-82
−4.5
10
@SMU
SMUL 81-89
+2.5
14
vsGT
GTW 89-74
+9.5
21
@PITT
PITTL 68-73
−1.5
24
vsDUKE
DUKEL 56-100
−27.5
28
vsNCSU
NCSUW 96-90
+12.5
4
vsSTAN
STANL 78-86
−6.5
7
@BC
BCL 69-77
−9.5
covered 15didn’t cover 16avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsLIU
LIUW 89-67
+20.5
7
vsDETM
DETMW 102-70
+24.5
11
vsEIU
EIUW 78-58
−7.5
16
@OSU
OSUL 63-64
−29.5
19
vsBELL
BELLW 86-79
+14.5
24
vsKU
KUL 61-71
−11.5
25
vsRUTG
RUTGW 68-63
−9.5
26
vsHOU
HOUL 56-66
−10.5
2
vsMIZ
MIZW 76-71
+0.5
5
@TCU
TCUW 87-85
+30.5
10
vsIDHO
IDHOW 80-65
+0.5
13
vsEVAN
EVANW 82-58
+3.5
21
vsPFW
PFWL 69-72
−8.5
30
@STAN
STANW 47-40
−56.5
2
@CAL
CALL 71-72
+4.5
10
vsCLEM
CLEML 61-76
+3.5
13
vsMIA
MIAL 69-81
+6.5
17
@VT
VTL 76-89
+21.5
21
@UNC
UNCL 69-91
+10.5
24
vsBC
BCW 68-64
−5.5
27
vsUVA
UVAL 97-100
+51.5
31
@SYR
SYRL 72-86
+10.5
4
@LOU
LOUL 65-76
−14.5
7
vsFSU
FSUL 79-82
+6.5
10
@SMU
SMUL 81-89
+15.5
14
vsGT
GTW 89-74
+12.5
21
@PITT
PITTL 68-73
+0.5
24
vsDUKE
DUKEL 56-100
+14.5
28
vsNCSU
NCSUW 96-90
+32.5
4
vsSTAN
STANL 78-86
+16.5
7
@BC
BCL 69-77
+4.5
over 22under 9avg +4.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
The starting fives are even
Position by position: Vanderbilt 2, Notre Dame 2, even 1
VanderbiltBetterNotre Dame
G T. Tanner19.5 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.1 ast
Score 100
←VANSmall
G B. Shrewsberry15 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast
Score 81
G A. Glass TR16.1 pts · 3 reb · 2.4 ast
Score 86
=Even
G E. Roberts TR11 pts · 2 reb · 0 ast
Score 75
F S. Williams-Adams TR7 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.5 ast
Score 55
→NDBig
G B. Smith TR16 pts · 4 reb · 3 ast
Score 94
F B. Dak TR11.5 pts · 6.5 reb · 1.4 ast
Score 90
←VANBig
G D. Brown TR6.4 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.5 ast
Score 43
C B. Buyuktuncel TR6.5 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.9 ast
Score 61
→NDBig
C L. Duncomb TR18.2 pts · 8.7 reb · 1.6 ast
Score 99
VanderbiltBetterNotre Dame
VAN offense22nd of 366 · +7.6
=Even
ND defense63rd of 366 · +1.2
VAN defense29th of 366 · +3.7
=Even
ND offense76th of 366 · +1.1
Backcourt+10.2 · 2 players
←VANBig
Backcourt+4.8 · 4 players
Frontcourt+3.7 · 3 players
→NDBig
Frontcourt+7.1 · 1 player
Bench-0.4 · 3 players
=Even
Bench-0.9 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestVAN betterND betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
VanderbiltGuards
T. Tanner34 minA. Glass29 min · TRA. BrownNewM. HawkinsNewB. AllenNewC. ByingtonNew
Forwards
S. Williams-Adams27 min · TRB. Dak26 min · TRT. Barrett23 min · TRC. Bing15 minE. MgbakoNewG. NesmithNew
Centers
B. Buyuktuncel24 min · TRJ. Leverett4 min
Notre DameGuards
B. Shrewsberry36 minE. Roberts32 min · TRB. Smith31 min · TRD. Brown24 min · TRL. Imes21 minB. Stevens2 min
Forwards
B. Koehler16 minB. Ruglass Dortch15 min · TRY. DialloNewL. DevineNew
Centers
L. Duncomb25 min · TRT. AhnemanNewG. SolongoNew
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.
Matchup stats
2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Points per game
VAN85.7 #14ND74.5 #180Points per possession
VAN1.21 #9ND1.10 #143Pace (possessions)
VAN70.9 #80ND67.7 #239Shooting
Effective FG%
VAN55.3 #31ND52.3 #1333-point %
VAN35.6 #86ND35.6 #823-point attempt rate
VAN44.2 #85ND43.5 #101Free throw rate
VAN38.1 #101ND34.1 #206Possessions
Turnover rate
VAN13.5 #15ND16.9 #199Offensive rebound rate
VAN31.2 #158ND31.2 #155Assists per game
VAN16.3 #40ND12.3 #267Defense
Points allowed
VAN75.0 #187ND75.3 #197Points allowed per possession
VAN1.06 #99ND1.11 #255Opponent effective FG%
VAN49.0 #67ND51.8 #200Opponent 3-point %
VAN32.6 #96ND33.2 #138Turnovers forced
VAN17.7 #112ND14.0 #337Defensive rebound rate
VAN68.5 #231ND73.3 #27Steals per game
VAN7.9 #40ND4.5 #355Blocks per game
VAN4.5 #36ND2.2 #328| VAN | ND | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 85.7 #14 | Points per game | 74.5 #180 |
| 1.21 #9 | Points per possession | 1.10 #143 |
| 70.9 #80 | Pace (possessions) | 67.7 #239 |
| Shooting | ||
| 55.3 #31 | Effective FG% | 52.3 #133 |
| 35.6 #86 | 3-point % | 35.6 #82 |
| 44.2 #85 | 3-point attempt rate | 43.5 #101 |
| 38.1 #101 | Free throw rate | 34.1 #206 |
| Possessions | ||
| 13.5 #15 | Turnover rate | 16.9 #199 |
| 31.2 #158 | Offensive rebound rate | 31.2 #155 |
| 16.3 #40 | Assists per game | 12.3 #267 |
| Defense | ||
| 75.0 #187 | Points allowed | 75.3 #197 |
| 1.06 #99 | Points allowed per possession | 1.11 #255 |
| 49.0 #67 | Opponent effective FG% | 51.8 #200 |
| 32.6 #96 | Opponent 3-point % | 33.2 #138 |
| 17.7 #112 | Turnovers forced | 14.0 #337 |
| 68.5 #231 | Defensive rebound rate | 73.3 #27 |
| 7.9 #40 | Steals per game | 4.5 #355 |
| 4.5 #36 | Blocks per game | 2.2 #328 |
Vanderbilt
27-9 in 2025-26 overall · 13-8 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Nebraska72–74
- Wvs McNeese78–68
- Lvs Arkansas75–86
- Wvs Florida91–74
- Wvs Tennessee75–68
A week or more of rest.
Notre Dame
13-18 in 2025-26 overall · 4-14 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Boston College69–77
- Lvs Stanford78–86
- Wvs NC State96–90
- Lvs Duke56–100
- L@ Pitt68–73
A week or more of rest.