Tulane Green Wave at Southern Miss Golden Eagles: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 2, 8:30 PM ETReed Green Coliseum · at Southern Miss

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Tulane and Southern Miss
TULN	This season	USM
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TULN 77–75 · win probability TULN 57%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 151.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

TULN 2, USM 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

USMBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: TULN 22.8%, USM 32.5%. Defensive: TULN 64.2%, USM 71.2%

TULNBig

TULN offense vs USM defense

Offense 114th of 366 against a defense 239th, on the model’s ratings

TULNSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: TULN 15.4%, USM 18.4%. Forced: TULN 17.1%, USM 17.8%

Context

Schedule so far

TULN has played the 115th-hardest schedule, USM the 185th. A record against a soft schedule means less

USMSmall

Home court

USM at home. This season: USM 0-0 at home, TULN 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: TULN plays 68.5 a game (205th fastest), USM 70.1 (113th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: TULN 43.5, USM 43.2. Allowed: TULN 38.1, USM 43.6

Even

Three-pointers

TULN hits 32.0% and allows 34.5%; USM hits 28.9% and allows 34.5%. Threes are 45.0% and 28.7% of their shots

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: TULN 40%, USM 23%. Transfers in: TULN 4, USM 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: TULN 49.4 and allows 50.7; USM 49.0 and allows 51.4

Even

USM offense vs TULN defense

Offense 203rd of 366 against a defense 180th, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	TULN -2.0	—
Total	—	151.6	—
Projected score	—	TULN 76.8 · USM 74.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	TULN -1.3	—
1H total	70.9	—
1H projected score	TULN 36.1 · USM 34.8	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TULN LLWWL	15-17	47%	6-4	—
USM WWWWL	17-16	52%	5-6	—

Venue/role: TULN away; USM home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
TULN UOOUU	13-19	41%	17-15
USM UOOOO	20-13	61%	17-16

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TULN	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
USM	7-3 70%	8-2 80%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Tulane

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 6	vs UL	W66–62LU
Dec 12	vs URI	W78–75LO

Southern Miss

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	@ ORST	No recent meeting
Dec 10	@ MCN	L48–67LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

TULN 1–0 USMTULN leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · TULN 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 10, 2024-25	USM 58 @ TULN 86	TULN -5.5	TULN W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Tulane

32 games played

Straight up

17-15

53% wins

Against the spread

15-17

47% covers · avg −2.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-19

41% overs · avg −1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1553%

W W W L L W W W L L W W W W W L L L L L W L W W W W L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1747%

W L L L L W W L L L W L W W W L L W L L W L W W W W L L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

13-1941%

O O U U O O O U U O U U O U U U U U U O O U U U O O U U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSAM	W 85-72	-7.5	W +5.5	154.5	O 157
Nov 8	vsTXST	W 79-71	-12.5	L −4.5	146.5	O 150
Nov 11	@UL	W 66-62	-5.5	L −1.5	135.5	U 128
Nov 14	vsNOLA	L 63-85	-11.5	L −33.5	153.5	U 148
Nov 21	vsUSU	L 75-96	+8.5	L −12.5	151.5	O 171
Nov 23	vsBC	W 93-90	+2.5	W +5.5	140.5	O 183
Nov 28	vsNICH	W 82-72	-8.5	W +1.5	148.5	O 154
Dec 2	vsGRAM	W 65-63	-11.5	L −9.5	148.5	U 128
Dec 6	vsAKR	L 71-88	+6.5	L −10.5	162.5	U 159
Dec 13	vsUCSD	L 67-93	+5.5	L −20.5	149.5	O 160
Dec 17	vsLT	W 61-53	-4.5	W +3.5	140.5	U 114
Dec 20	vsPRST	W 63-61	-2.5	L −0.5	145.5	U 124
Dec 31	@ECU	W 79-70	-1.5	W +7.5	145.5	O 149
Jan 4	vsFAU	W 69-66	+3.5	W +6.5	158.5	U 135
Jan 10	@UTSA	W 85-52	-7.5	W +25.5	147.5	U 137
Jan 14	vsUAB	L 69-82	+1.5	L −11.5	153.5	U 151
Jan 18	vsUNT	L 63-71	-1.5	L −9.5	137.5	U 134
Jan 21	@FAU	L 74-79	+10.5	W +5.5	155.5	U 153
Jan 23	@CLT	L 70-73	+2.5	L −0.5	143.5	U 143
Jan 28	vsUSF	L 83-97	+8.5	L −5.5	158.5	O 180
Feb 1	@MEM	W 78-76	+8.5	W +10.5	151.5	O 154
Feb 8	vsWICH	L 61-75	+5.5	L −8.5	148.5	U 136
Feb 11	vsTEM	W 77-66	-1.5	W +9.5	144.5	U 143
Feb 15	@UAB	W 55-54	+6.5	W +7.5	152.5	U 109
Feb 19	@UNT	W 77-71	+6.5	W +12.5	137.5	O 148
Feb 22	vsRICE	W 81-75	-4.5	W +1.5	147.5	O 156
Feb 25	vsTLSA	L 56-90	+5.5	L −28.5	156.5	U 146
Mar 1	@USF	L 62-90	+15.5	L −12.5	155.5	U 152
Mar 5	@TEM	L 60-89	+4.5	L −24.5	144.5	O 149
Mar 8	vsMEM	L 95-96	+2.5	W +1.5	154.5	O 191
Mar 11	vsMEM	W 81-69	+4.5	W +16.5	151.5	U 150
Mar 12	vsCLT	L 60-74	+1.5	L −12.5	144.5	U 134

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SAM

W 85-72

+5.5

TXST

W 79-71

−4.5

W 66-62

−1.5

NOLA

L 63-85

−33.5

USU

L 75-96

−12.5

W 93-90

+5.5

NICH

W 82-72

+1.5

GRAM

W 65-63

−9.5

AKR

L 71-88

−10.5

UCSD

L 67-93

−20.5

W 61-53

+3.5

PRST

W 63-61

−0.5

ECU

W 79-70

+7.5

FAU

W 69-66

+6.5

UTSA

W 85-52

+25.5

UAB

L 69-82

−11.5

UNT

L 63-71

−9.5

FAU

L 74-79

+5.5

CLT

L 70-73

−0.5

USF

L 83-97

−5.5

MEM

W 78-76

+10.5

WICH

L 61-75

−8.5

TEM

W 77-66

+9.5

UAB

W 55-54

+7.5

UNT

W 77-71

+12.5

RICE

W 81-75

+1.5

TLSA

L 56-90

−28.5

USF

L 62-90

−12.5

TEM

L 60-89

−24.5

MEM

L 95-96

+1.5

MEM

W 81-69

+16.5

CLT

L 60-74

−12.5

covered 15didn’t cover 17avg −2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SAM

W 85-72

+2.5

TXST

W 79-71

+3.5

W 66-62

−7.5

NOLA

L 63-85

−5.5

USU

L 75-96

+19.5

W 93-90

+42.5

NICH

W 82-72

+5.5

GRAM

W 65-63

−20.5

AKR

L 71-88

−3.5

UCSD

L 67-93

+10.5

W 61-53

−26.5

PRST

W 63-61

−21.5

ECU

W 79-70

+3.5

FAU

W 69-66

−23.5

UTSA

W 85-52

−10.5

UAB

L 69-82

−2.5

UNT

L 63-71

−3.5

FAU

L 74-79

−2.5

CLT

L 70-73

−0.5

USF

L 83-97

+21.5

MEM

W 78-76

+2.5

WICH

L 61-75

−12.5

TEM

W 77-66

−1.5

UAB

W 55-54

−43.5

UNT

W 77-71

+10.5

RICE

W 81-75

+8.5

TLSA

L 56-90

−10.5

USF

L 62-90

−3.5

TEM

L 60-89

+4.5

MEM

L 95-96

+36.5

MEM

W 81-69

−1.5

CLT

L 60-74

−10.5

over 13under 19avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Southern Miss

33 games played

Straight up

17-16

52% wins

Against the spread

17-16

52% covers · avg +1.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

20-13

61% overs · avg +3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1652%

L L L W W W L W L W L L W W W W L L L L L W L W L W W L W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1652%

L W L L W W L L W L L L W W W L L L L L L W W W L W W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

20-1361%

O O U O U O O U U U O U O O O U O O U O U U O U O U O O U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@BUF	L 79-85	+3.5	L −2.5	153.5	O 164
Nov 9	@SC	L 79-83	+17.5	W +13.5	147.5	O 162
Nov 13	@GRAM	L 70-75	+2.5	L −2.5	148.5	U 145
Nov 22	vsUNF	W 92-83	-9.5	L −0.5	154.5	O 175
Nov 23	vsUTM	W 70-60	+1.5	W +11.5	146.5	U 130
Dec 3	@RAD	W 82-75	+3.5	W +10.5	152.5	O 157
Dec 6	@MIA	L 64-88	+19.5	L −4.5	145.5	O 152
Dec 8	vsGRAM	W 68-60	-8.5	L −0.5	142.5	U 128
Dec 13	vsMISS	L 67-71	+12.5	W +8.5	138.5	U 138
Dec 18	vsUL	W 62-54	-11.5	L −3.5	132.5	U 116
Dec 20	vsARST	L 86-93	+1.5	L −5.5	155.5	O 179
Dec 29	@LSU	L 62-90	+21.5	L −6.5	154.5	U 152
Jan 1	@ULM	W 87-73	-9.5	W +4.5	152.5	O 160
Jan 3	@UL	W 74-67	-3.5	W +3.5	129.5	O 141
Jan 8	vsTXST	W 80-70	-2.5	W +7.5	144.5	O 150
Jan 10	vsULM	W 70-60	-14.5	L −4.5	155.5	U 130
Jan 14	@TROY	L 65-91	+8.5	L −17.5	145.5	O 156
Jan 17	@TXST	L 67-74	+2.5	L −4.5	140.5	O 141
Jan 22	@GAST	L 62-69	+1.5	L −5.5	144.5	U 131
Jan 24	@CCU	L 67-85	+2.5	L −15.5	141.5	O 152
Jan 29	vsAPP	L 63-70	+1.5	L −5.5	134.5	U 133
Jan 31	vsJMU	W 73-65	-1.5	W +6.5	143.5	U 138
Feb 4	@MRSH	L 77-81	+10.5	W +6.5	148.5	O 158
Feb 7	vsKENT	W 66-65	+4.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 131
Feb 12	vsUSA	L 78-84	-1.5	L −7.5	135.5	O 162
Feb 14	vsTROY	W 69-65	+5.5	W +9.5	144.5	U 134
Feb 21	vsODU	W 86-81	-4.5	W +0.5	147.5	O 167
Feb 24	@ARST	L 84-89	+9.5	W +4.5	158.5	O 173
Feb 27	@USA	W 68-55	+4.5	W +17.5	141.5	U 123
Mar 5	vsJMU	W 86-80	+2.5	W +8.5	143.5	O 166
Mar 6	vsTXST	W 81-77	+1.5	W +5.5	140.5	O 158
Mar 7	vsAPP	W 86-73	+4.5	W +17.5	137.5	O 159
Mar 8	vsTROY	L 70-78	+5.5	L −2.5	142.5	O 148

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BUF

L 79-85

−2.5

L 79-83

+13.5

GRAM

L 70-75

−2.5

UNF

W 92-83

−0.5

UTM

W 70-60

+11.5

RAD

W 82-75

+10.5

MIA

L 64-88

−4.5

GRAM

W 68-60

−0.5

MISS

L 67-71

+8.5

W 62-54

−3.5

ARST

L 86-93

−5.5

LSU

L 62-90

−6.5

ULM

W 87-73

+4.5

W 74-67

+3.5

TXST

W 80-70

+7.5

ULM

W 70-60

−4.5

TROY

L 65-91

−17.5

TXST

L 67-74

−4.5

GAST

L 62-69

−5.5

CCU

L 67-85

−15.5

APP

L 63-70

−5.5

JMU

W 73-65

+6.5

MRSH

L 77-81

+6.5

KENT

W 66-65

+5.5

USA

L 78-84

−7.5

TROY

W 69-65

+9.5

ODU

W 86-81

+0.5

ARST

L 84-89

+4.5

USA

W 68-55

+17.5

JMU

W 86-80

+8.5

TXST

W 81-77

+5.5

APP

W 86-73

+17.5

TROY

L 70-78

−2.5

covered 17didn’t cover 16avg +1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BUF

L 79-85

+10.5

L 79-83

+14.5

GRAM

L 70-75

−3.5

UNF

W 92-83

+20.5

UTM

W 70-60

−16.5

RAD

W 82-75

+4.5

MIA

L 64-88

+6.5

GRAM

W 68-60

−14.5

MISS

L 67-71

−0.5

W 62-54

−16.5

ARST

L 86-93

+23.5

LSU

L 62-90

−2.5

ULM

W 87-73

+7.5

W 74-67

+11.5

TXST

W 80-70

+5.5

ULM

W 70-60

−25.5

TROY

L 65-91

+10.5

TXST

L 67-74

+0.5

GAST

L 62-69

−13.5

CCU

L 67-85

+10.5

APP

L 63-70

−1.5

JMU

W 73-65

−5.5

MRSH

L 77-81

+9.5

KENT

W 66-65

−19.5

USA

L 78-84

+26.5

TROY

W 69-65

−10.5

ODU

W 86-81

+19.5

ARST

L 84-89

+14.5

USA

W 68-55

−18.5

JMU

W 86-80

+22.5

TXST

W 81-77

+17.5

APP

W 86-73

+21.5

TROY

L 70-78

+5.5

over 20under 13avg +3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Southern Miss has the better starters

Position by position: Tulane 1, Southern Miss 2, even 2

TulaneBetterSouthern Miss

G K. Lewis TR18.8 pts · 4.6 reb · 3.1 ast Score 65

Even

G J. Gaines-Wyatt TR11.8 pts · 1.5 reb · 2.9 ast Score 59

G T. Nadeau TR13.5 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 73

USMSmall

G I. Taveras15.4 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.2 ast Score 90

F T. Ringgold9.6 pts · 4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 57

TULNBig

G B. Carruth2.6 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.3 ast Score 6

F C. Schwieger10.4 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.8 ast Score 32

USMSmall

F C. Wallace TR12.1 pts · 6.8 reb · 1.7 ast Score 53

F J. Chappelle TR6.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 0.5 ast Score 37

Even

F M. Overstreet TR2.4 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.3 ast Score 39

TulaneBetterSouthern Miss

TULN offense114th of 366 · -2.4

TULNSmall

USM defense239th of 366 · -6.3

TULN defense180th of 366 · -4.1

Even

USM offense203rd of 366 · -6.3

Backcourt+1.1 · 2 players

Even

Backcourt+0.4 · 3 players

Frontcourt-2.2 · 3 players

USMSmall

Frontcourt-0.5 · 2 players

Bench-1.1 · 5 players

Even

Bench-0.9 · 1 player

Score, worst to bestTULN betterUSM betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Tulane

Guards

K. Lewis36 min · TRT. Nadeau27 min · TRK. Greene15 minJ. Moore12 minR. Moore2 minR. BlountNew

Forwards

T. Ringgold25 minC. Schwieger25 minJ. Chappelle24 min · TRJ. Dumont2 min · TRL. Cronin2 min

Centers

D. SalaneNew

Southern Miss

Guards

J. Gaines-Wyatt27 min · TRI. Taveras27 minB. Carruth12 minB. WestonNewA. IgiedeNewC. CereseNew

Forwards

C. Wallace29 min · TRM. Overstreet10 min · TRM. MontanoNew

Centers

F. Diagne6 minM. BlankNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

TULN72.0 #239

USM73.9 #197

Points per possession

TULN1.05 #245

USM1.05 #242

Pace (possessions)

TULN68.5 #205

USM70.1 #113

Shooting

Effective FG%

TULN49.4 #275

USM49.0 #289

3-point %

TULN32.0 #279

USM28.9 #355

3-point attempt rate

TULN45.0 #68

USM28.7 #358

Free throw rate

TULN43.5 #14

USM43.2 #18

Possessions

Turnover rate

TULN15.4 #99

USM18.4 #290

Offensive rebound rate

TULN22.8 #352

USM32.5 #103

Assists per game

TULN12.6 #244

USM11.2 #330

Defense

Points allowed

TULN75.7 #208

USM74.8 #183

Points allowed per possession

TULN1.11 #229

USM1.07 #127

Opponent effective FG%

TULN50.7 #140

USM51.4 #177

Opponent 3-point %

TULN34.5 #216

USM34.5 #217

Turnovers forced

TULN17.1 #139

USM17.8 #109

Defensive rebound rate

TULN64.2 #352

USM71.2 #97

Steals per game

TULN7.5 #85

USM7.3 #98

Blocks per game

TULN4.5 #38

USM3.6 #127

TULN		USM
Scoring
72.0 #239	Points per game	73.9 #197
1.05 #245	Points per possession	1.05 #242
68.5 #205	Pace (possessions)	70.1 #113
Shooting
49.4 #275	Effective FG%	49.0 #289
32.0 #279	3-point %	28.9 #355
45.0 #68	3-point attempt rate	28.7 #358
43.5 #14	Free throw rate	43.2 #18
Possessions
15.4 #99	Turnover rate	18.4 #290
22.8 #352	Offensive rebound rate	32.5 #103
12.6 #244	Assists per game	11.2 #330
Defense
75.7 #208	Points allowed	74.8 #183
1.11 #229	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #127
50.7 #140	Opponent effective FG%	51.4 #177
34.5 #216	Opponent 3-point %	34.5 #217
17.1 #139	Turnovers forced	17.8 #109
64.2 #352	Defensive rebound rate	71.2 #97
7.5 #85	Steals per game	7.3 #98
4.5 #38	Blocks per game	3.6 #127

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Tulane

17-15 in 2025-26 overall · 9-11 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Charlotte60–74
Wvs Memphis81–69
Lvs Memphis95–96
L@ Temple60–89
L@ South Florida62–90

A week or more of rest.

Southern Miss

17-16 in 2025-26 overall · 12-10 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Troy70–78
Wvs App State86–73
Wvs Texas St81–77
Wvs James Madison86–80
W@ South Alabama68–55

A week or more of rest.

Tulane @ Southern Miss

What could decide it

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

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ATS History · 2025-26

Tulane

Southern Miss

Southern Miss has the better starters

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Tulane

Southern Miss