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NCAAB · Sat, Nov 21

C Arkansas @ Jacksonville

Swisher Gymnasium · at Jacksonville
#240CARKC Arkansas
@
#223JAXJacksonville
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
CARKThis seasonJAX
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects JAX 74–73 · win probability JAX 53%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 147.0
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CARK has more of the edges

CARK 5, JAX 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
CARKBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: CARK 15.4%, JAX 17.2%. Forced: CARK 19.1%, JAX 15.0%
CARKBig
Three-pointers
CARK hits 35.5% and allows 35.2%; JAX hits 31.8% and allows 36.3%. Threes are 48.7% and 37.4% of their shots
CARKBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: CARK 31.2, JAX 32.8. Allowed: CARK 30.1, JAX 42.7
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: CARK plays 70.2 a game (105th fastest), JAX 65.7 (322nd). Faster games mean more points
CARKSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: CARK 54.0 and allows 54.9; JAX 50.0 and allows 54.8
CARKSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: CARK 62%, JAX 27%. Transfers in: CARK 2, JAX 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
JAXSmall
Home court
JAX at home. This season: JAX 0-0 at home, CARK 0-0 away
Even
CARK offense vs JAX defense
Offense 231st of 366 against a defense 210th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: CARK 28.8%, JAX 31.7%. Defensive: CARK 72.6%, JAX 70.9%
Even
JAX offense vs CARK defense
Offense 232nd of 366 against a defense 241st, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
CARK has played the 241st-hardest schedule, JAX the 247th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—JAX -0.9—
Total—147.0—
Projected score—CARK 73.1 · JAX 73.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadJAX -0.4—
1H total68.8—
1H projected scoreCARK 34.2 · JAX 34.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Jacksonville has the better starters

Position by position: C Arkansas 1, Jacksonville 4, even 0
C ArkansasBetterJacksonville
G L. Moore9.6 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.5 ast Score 28
JAXBig
G C. Williams TR16.1 pts · 3.6 reb · 3.2 ast Score 65
G T. Robinson14.2 pts · 5.6 reb · 2 ast Score 89
CARKSmall
G J. Phillips TR15.5 pts · 5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 59
G C. McCormick9.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.3 ast Score 44
JAXSmall
G H. Wood11.6 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 64
G H. Beauchamp4.3 pts · 1.3 reb · 1 ast Score 8
JAXSmall
G E. Sterck6.5 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.9 ast Score 23
F M. Marable3.7 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 3
JAXBig
F J. Morrow TR7.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.1 ast Score 58
C ArkansasBetterJacksonville
CARK offense231st of 366 · -7.1
Even
JAX defense210th of 366 · -5.4
CARK defense241st of 366 · -6.4
Even
JAX offense232nd of 366 · -7.1
Backcourt-2.6 · 4 players
Even
Backcourt-1.9 · 4 players
Frontcourt-3.0 · 1 player
JAXSmall
Frontcourt-0.2 · 1 player
Bench-1.8 · 4 players
Even
Bench-1.1 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestCARK betterJAX betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
C Arkansas
Guards
L. Moore30 minT. Robinson28 minC. McCormick23 minH. Beauchamp15 minO. Dehrmann3 minJ. Shulman3 min
Forwards
M. Marable21 minT. Anderson12 min · TRS. Saadi9 min · TRA. HoernerNew
Jacksonville
Guards
C. Williams33 min · TRJ. Phillips31 min · TRH. Wood28 minE. Sterck25 minR. Loux1 minL. BuckinghamNew
Forwards
J. Morrow21 min · TRR. Stirling15 min · TRN. Turner6 min · TRJ. Newell2 min · TR
Centers
S. MbingazoNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
CARKJAX
Scoring
79.3 #77Points per game69.5 #293
1.13 #90Points per possession1.06 #237
70.2 #105Pace (possessions)65.7 #322
Shooting
54.0 #68Effective FG%50.0 #232
35.5 #893-point %31.8 #289
48.7 #213-point attempt rate37.4 #223
31.2 #278Free throw rate32.8 #242
Possessions
15.4 #92Turnover rate17.2 #222
28.8 #240Offensive rebound rate31.7 #137
16.0 #46Assists per game11.1 #335
Defense
76.0 #216Points allowed75.2 #194
1.08 #180Points allowed per possession1.14 #313
54.9 #328Opponent effective FG%54.8 #325
35.2 #262Opponent 3-point %36.3 #318
19.1 #45Turnovers forced15.0 #290
72.6 #48Defensive rebound rate70.9 #115
8.5 #18Steals per game6.3 #206
1.9 #351Blocks per game2.8 #261
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

C Arkansas

20-12 in 2025-26 overall · 17-4 in conference · United Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Queens University Royals93–98
  • Wvs FGCU73–63
  • Wvs Bellarmine86–73
  • Wvs Queens University Royals84–79
  • W@ Austin Peay93–88

A week or more of rest.

Jacksonville

10-20 in 2025-26 overall · 7-12 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Bellarmine79–82
  • W@ North Florida85–61
  • Wvs Stetson89–85
  • Lvs Austin Peay61–65
  • L@ FGCU84–86

A week or more of rest.