University Credit Union Pavilion · at Saint Mary's
#116ILSTIllinois St
@
#97SMCSaint Mary's
LineSMC -6.5no move
Total147.5up 1 from 146.5
Season records: Illinois St and Saint Mary's
ILSTThis seasonSMC
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SMC 73–66 · win probability SMC 74%
Pick this game
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Spread
Total
Winner
Line
SMC -6.5
no move since the open
Total
147.5
model 139.3 · Under by 8
Model edge
SMC by 1
model vs market
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SMC has more of the edges

ILST 0, SMC 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
SMCBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: ILST 28.0%, SMC 37.5%. Defensive: ILST 74.6%, SMC 76.1%
SMCSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: ILST 31.6, SMC 35.5. Allowed: ILST 32.3, SMC 25.7
SMCSmall
Three-pointers
ILST hits 34.9% and allows 33.0%; SMC hits 38.7% and allows 31.4%. Threes are 43.3% and 36.4% of their shots
SMCSmall
ILST offense vs SMC defense
Offense 133rd of 366 against a defense 44th, on the model’s ratings
SMCSmall
Home court
SMC at home. This season: SMC 0-0 at home, ILST 0-0 away
Context
Schedule so far
ILST has played the 135th-hardest schedule, SMC the 93rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: ILST plays 67.7 a game (241st fastest), SMC 66.2 (305th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: ILST 16.8%, SMC 16.9%. Forced: ILST 16.0%, SMC 15.1%
Even
SMC offense vs ILST defense
Offense 129th of 366 against a defense 102nd, on the model’s ratings
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: ILST 53.6 and allows 49.8; SMC 52.8 and allows 46.8
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: ILST 37%, SMC 32%. Transfers in: ILST 5, SMC 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
SituationGamesFavorite wonFavorite coveredWent over
Home favorites of 3 to 6.5317166%50%50%
Non-conference games at this spread173667%50%49%
Games with a total of 145 to 149.5354774%49%50%

Market

Open → current
Spread
No change since the open
Total
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
ILST +230 · SMC -285
Line movement
Median of 7 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened SMC -6.5 · unchangedmodel SMC -7.5
Opened 146.5 · now 148.5 · moved 2 upmodel 139.5
Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money
Over 147.5TotalUnder 147.5
Bets
Money
ILSTWinnerSMC
Bets
Money

Books

8 sportsbooks · current prices
BookSpreadTotalMoneyline
ILSTSMCOverUnderILSTSMC
BetMGMMGM——148.5-105148.5-115+230-285
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag-6.5-115+6.5-105148-110148-110——
BetRiversBetRivers-6.5-117+6.5-109148.5-115148.5-110+225-295
BetUSBetUS-6.5-115+6.5-105148-110148-110——
BovadaBovada-6.5-110+6.5-110148-110148-110+230-280
DraftKingsDK-6.5-105+6.5-115148.5-110148.5-110+230-285
FanDuelFD-6.5-110+6.5-110148.5-110148.5-110+225-280
LowVig.agLowVig.ag-6.5-111+6.5-101148-108148-108——

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
SpreadSMC -6.5SMC -7.5SMC +1.0
Total147.5139.3Under 8.2
Projected score—ILST 65.9 · SMC 73.4

1st-half model

ModelActual
1H spreadSMC -4.3—
1H total65.2—
1H projected scoreILST 30.5 · SMC 34.8—

Saint Mary's has the better starters

Position by position: Illinois St 0, Saint Mary's 2, even 3
Illinois StBetterSaint Mary's
G M. Messina-Moore TR10.9 pts · 3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 57
SMCSmall
G J. Dent12.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 5.7 ast Score 83
G J. Kinziger11.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 51
Even
G J. Dent-Smith TR8.2 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.5 ast Score 53
G D. Garang TR10.6 pts · 5.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 30
Even
G R. Hawke2.5 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 21
G Z. King TR7.1 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.7 ast Score 24
SMCBig
F T. Ndong TR4.9 pts · 6.5 reb · 0.4 ast Score 73
G D. Burch TR9 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.9 ast Score 32
No call
F K. Gad1.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.8 ast Not ranked
Illinois StBetterSaint Mary's
ILST offense133rd of 366 · -3.9
SMCSmall
SMC defense44th of 366 · +2.5
ILST defense102nd of 366 · -0.9
Even
SMC offense129th of 366 · -3.5
Backcourt-6.6 · 5 players
SMCBig
Backcourt+0.8 · 3 players
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Frontcourt+0.5 · 2 players
Bench+3.4 · 4 players
ILSTBig
Bench-0.6 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestILST betterSMC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Illinois St
Guards
M. Messina-Moore33 min · TRJ. Kinziger33 minD. Garang30 min · TRZ. King27 min · TRD. Burch23 min · TRM. Klabo16 min
Forwards
C. Walker23 minL. Semona6 min · TRN. ClevelandNewN. AllenNewL. WolfNewM. SzafoniNew
Saint Mary's
Guards
J. Dent37 minJ. Dent-Smith20 min · TRR. Hawke11 minL. Fennell8 min · TRM. Juzenas6 minD. BivinsNew
Forwards
T. Ndong18 min · TRK. Gad10 minV. Zougris9 min · TRJ. LewisNewT. MacLeanNew
Centers
S. Altuntas8 min · TRJ. GardnerNewF. PavelyNew
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
ILSTSMC
Scoring
74.1 #191Points per game76.8 #125
1.09 #151Points per possession1.17 #39
67.7 #241Pace (possessions)66.2 #305
Shooting
53.6 #77Effective FG%52.8 #109
34.9 #1263-point %38.7 #7
43.3 #1063-point attempt rate36.4 #242
31.6 #266Free throw rate35.5 #162
Possessions
16.8 #193Turnover rate16.9 #201
28.0 #268Offensive rebound rate37.5 #12
13.5 #179Assists per game15.1 #82
Defense
69.1 #49Points allowed65.2 #7
1.02 #48Points allowed per possession0.98 #14
49.8 #90Opponent effective FG%46.8 #20
33.0 #122Opponent 3-point %31.4 #40
16.0 #221Turnovers forced15.1 #274
74.6 #13Defensive rebound rate76.1 #4
5.5 #294Steals per game5.5 #302
2.3 #326Blocks per game3.6 #129

Illinois St

22-13 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Auburn66–88
  • W@ Dayton61–55
  • W@ Wake Forest78–75
  • Wvs Kent State79–58
  • Lvs Northern Iowa52–74

A week or more of rest.

Saint Mary's

26-6 in 2025-26 overall · 16-3 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Texas A&M50–63
  • Lvs Santa Clara71–76
  • Wvs Gonzaga70–59
  • Wvs Santa Clara86–67
  • W@ Washington St83–67

A week or more of rest.