1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Nov 2
  3. TOW @ SCU
NCAAB · Mon, Nov 2

Towson Tigers at Santa Clara Broncos

Leavey Center · at Santa Clara
#165TOWTowson
@
#106SCUSanta Clara
LineSCU -14.5moved 1 toward SCU
Total148.5no move
TOWThis seasonSCU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SCU 79–67 · win probability SCU 85%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
SCU -14.5
moved 1 toward SCU
Total
148.5
model 145.6 · Under by 3
Model edge
TOW by 2.5
model vs market
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SCU has more of the edges

TOW 2, SCU 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
SCUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: TOW 15.8%, SCU 15.3%. Forced: TOW 15.1%, SCU 20.1%
TOWBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: TOW 30.4, SCU 25.5. Allowed: TOW 29.3, SCU 38.2
SCUBig
TOW offense vs SCU defense
Offense 266th of 366 against a defense 137th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: TOW plays 64.0 a game (360th fastest), SCU 69.7 (135th). Faster games mean more points
TOWSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: TOW 36.0%, SCU 36.4%. Defensive: TOW 70.9%, SCU 67.9%
SCUSmall
Three-pointers
TOW hits 29.4% and allows 30.9%; SCU hits 34.9% and allows 33.1%. Threes are 34.9% and 45.0% of their shots
SCUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: TOW 46.5 and allows 48.5; SCU 54.5 and allows 52.0
Context
Schedule so far
TOW has played the 140th-hardest schedule, SCU the 86th. A record against a soft schedule means less
SCUSmall
Home court
SCU at home. This season: SCU 0-0 at home, TOW 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: TOW 27%, SCU 42%. Transfers in: TOW 3, SCU 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
SCU offense vs TOW defense
Offense 93rd of 366 against a defense 113th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
SituationGamesFavorite wonFavorite coveredWent over
Home favorites of 10 to 14.5192888%48%52%
Non-conference games at this spread98888%50%51%
Lines that moved 1+ toward the favorite676375%50%51%
Games with a total of 145 to 149.5354774%49%50%
A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

Market

Open → current
Spread
1 pt toward SCU
Total
No change since the open
Moneyline
TOW +625 · SCU -950
Line movement
Median of 8 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened SCU -13.5 · now SCU -14.5 · moved 1 toward SCUmodel SCU -12
Opened 148.5 · unchangedmodel 145.5
Nov 1line modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money
Over 148.5TotalUnder 148.5
Bets
Money
TOWWinnerSCU
Bets
Money
Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read . ⓘ

Books

8 sportsbooks · current prices
BookSpreadTotalMoneyline
TOWSCUOverUnderTOWSCU
BetMGMMGM-14.5-110+14.5-110148.5-110148.5-110+800-1400
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag-14.5-110+14.5-110148.5-110148.5-110——
BetRiversBetRivers-15.5-118+15.5-108148.5-112148.5-114+750-1667
BetUSBetUS-14.5-110+14.5-110148.5-110148.5-110——
BovadaBovada-14.5-110+14.5-110149-105149-115+725-1300
DraftKingsDK-15.5-115+15.5-105148.5-110148.5-110+750-1200
FanDuelFD-13.5-106+13.5-114148.5-110148.5-110+800-1400
LowVig.agLowVig.ag-14.5-106+14.5-106148.5-108148.5-108——
Prices from The Odds API, updated 5:30 AM ET. Green = best price in the column.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
SpreadSCU -14.5SCU -12.1TOW +2.4
Total148.5145.6Under 2.9
Projected score—TOW 66.7 · SCU 78.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadSCU -7.1—
1H total68.1—
1H projected scoreTOW 30.5 · SCU 37.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Santa Clara has the better starters

Position by position: Towson 1, Santa Clara 2, even 2
TowsonBetterSanta Clara
G B. Roseborough TR11.7 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 50
Even
G J. Ensminger6.4 pts · 5.5 reb · 2.8 ast Score 53
G J. Womack6.8 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.5 ast Score 61
TOWSmall
G D. Castillo TR10.3 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 41
G C. Ndefo2.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.1 ast Score 32
SCUSmall
G S. Gavalyugov9 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 61
F C. Embeya3.5 pts · 5.9 reb · 0.5 ast Score 37
Even
G T. Darlan5.9 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 35
F D. Badalau TR3.1 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.9 ast Score 32
SCUSmall
G F. Zugic TR5.2 pts · 2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 56
TowsonBetterSanta Clara
TOW offense266th of 366 · -8.1
SCUBig
SCU defense137th of 366 · -2.8
TOW defense113th of 366 · -1.4
Even
SCU offense93rd of 366 · -0.4
Backcourt-1.4 · 3 players
TOWSmall
Backcourt-2.9 · 5 players
Frontcourt-1.5 · 2 players
No call
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
Bench-0.1 · 2 players
Even
Bench-0.2 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestTOW betterSCU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Towson
Guards
B. Roseborough28 min · TRJ. Womack19 minC. Ndefo12 minZ. Stanford5 min · TRR. Skerry2 minC. DoerrNew
Forwards
C. Embeya21 minD. Badalau13 min · TRA. AtkinsonNewB. HolmesNewD. KirkNew
Santa Clara
Guards
J. Ensminger29 minD. Castillo28 min · TRS. Gavalyugov20 minT. Darlan18 minF. Zugic16 min · TRK. Cochran12 min
Forwards
C. TadjoNewN. BadibangaNew
Centers
F. Chukwudebelu6 minS. Gueye4 min · TRA. EnsorNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
TOWSCU
Scoring
67.1 #332Points per game82.9 #30
1.05 #256Points per possession1.18 #37
64.0 #360Pace (possessions)69.7 #135
Shooting
46.5 #345Effective FG%54.5 #53
29.4 #3493-point %34.9 #125
34.9 #2773-point attempt rate45.0 #67
30.4 #299Free throw rate25.5 #363
Possessions
15.8 #128Turnover rate15.3 #86
36.0 #24Offensive rebound rate36.4 #20
9.5 #364Assists per game16.6 #33
Defense
66.4 #18Points allowed73.5 #141
1.04 #73Points allowed per possession1.06 #117
48.5 #49Opponent effective FG%52.0 #213
30.9 #33Opponent 3-point %33.1 #127
15.1 #271Turnovers forced20.1 #20
70.9 #117Defensive rebound rate67.9 #262
5.8 #253Steals per game8.7 #14
3.3 #175Blocks per game3.6 #125
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Towson

17-15 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Hofstra65–68
  • Wvs Charleston81–56
  • Wvs Hampton74–68
  • W@ Stony Brook69–57
  • Wvs Campbell71–67

A week or more of rest.

Santa Clara

25-9 in 2025-26 overall · 17-4 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Kentucky84–89
  • Lvs Gonzaga68–79
  • Wvs Saint Mary's76–71
  • Wvs Pacific76–68
  • Wvs Oregon St93–72

A week or more of rest.