North Alabama Lions at UC Davis Aggies: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 2, 10:00 PM ETUniversity Credit Union Center · at UC Davis

LineUCD -9.5no move

Total148.5up 1 from 147.5

Season records: North Alabama and UC Davis
UNA	This season	UCD
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UCD 78–66 · win probability UCD 84%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

Line

UCD -9.5

no move since the open

Total

148.5

model 143.6 · Under by 5

Model edge

UCD by 2

model vs market

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UCD has more of the edges

UNA 2, UCD 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

UCDBig

Three-pointers

UNA hits 30.7% and allows 35.7%; UCD hits 34.4% and allows 33.8%. Threes are 33.6% and 43.5% of their shots

UCDBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: UNA 48.0 and allows 55.2; UCD 51.8 and allows 51.7

UCDBig

UNA offense vs UCD defense

Offense 308th of 366 against a defense 171st, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: UNA plays 66.2 a game (304th fastest), UCD 71.8 (39th). Faster games mean more points

UCDBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UNA 17.5%, UCD 17.9%. Forced: UNA 14.6%, UCD 19.8%

Context

Schedule so far

UNA has played the 294th-hardest schedule, UCD the 189th. A record against a soft schedule means less

UNASmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: UNA 37.6, UCD 40.5. Allowed: UNA 30.3, UCD 39.1

UCDSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UNA 16%, UCD 57%. Transfers in: UNA 5, UCD 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

UCDSmall

Home court

UCD at home. This season: UCD 0-0 at home, UNA 0-0 away

UNASmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UNA 31.2%, UCD 25.2%. Defensive: UNA 67.8%, UCD 69.5%

Even

UCD offense vs UNA defense

Offense 208th of 366 against a defense 251st, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines

Situation	Games	Favorite won	Favorite covered	Went over
Home favorites of 7 to 9.5	1806	78%	49%	50%
Non-conference games at this spread	832	79%	51%	51%
Games with a total of 145 to 149.5	3547	74%	49%	50%

A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenUCD -9.5

no move

NowUCD -9.5

No change since the open

Total

Open147.5

▲ 1

Now148.5

Up 1 since the open

Moneyline

UNA +320 · UCD -410

Line movement

Median of 7 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot

Opened UCD -9.5 · now UCD -9 · moved 0.5 toward UNAmodel UCD -11.5

model UCD -11.5

Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Over 148.5TotalUnder 148.5

Bets

33%67%

Money

32%68%

UNAWinner

UCD

Bets

98%

Money

100%

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Mon, Nov 2, 4:41 AM ET. ⓘ

Books

7 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	UNA	UCD	Over	Under	UNA	UCD
BetMGMMGM	-9.5-115	+9.5-105	148.5-110	148.5-110	+340	-450
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-9-110	+9-110	148-115	148-105	—	—
BetRiversBetRivers	-8.5-106	+8.5-121	148.5-112	148.5-114	+330	-480
BetUSBetUS	-9-110	+9-110	148-115	148-105	—	—
BovadaBovada	-9-110	+9-110	148-115	148-105	+325	-435
DraftKingsDK	-9.5-118	+9.5-102	148.5-110	148.5-110	+330	-425
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	-9-106	+9-106	148-113	148-103	—	—

Prices from The Odds API, updated 5:30 AM ET. Green = best price in the column.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	UCD -9.5	UCD -11.6	UCD +2.1
Total	148.5	143.6	Under 4.9
Projected score	—	UNA 66 · UCD 77.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UCD -6.8	—
1H total	67.2	—
1H projected score	UNA 30.2 · UCD 37	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNA WLWLL	10-18	36%	7-9	10-11
UCD LWLWL	17-13	57%	9-5	9-4

Venue/role: UNA away, as underdog; UCD home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNA OUUUU	12-16	43%	7-21
UCD OUOOU	17-13	57%	17-14

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNA	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
UCD	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

North Alabama

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 9	@ OU	No recent meeting
Nov 13	@ MIA	No recent meeting
Nov 24	vs AAMU	L60–68LU

UC Davis

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 11	vs UIW	No recent meeting
Nov 14	@ SAC	W77–73LU
Nov 17	vs ALST	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

North Alabama

28 games played

Straight up

7-21

25% wins

Against the spread

10-18

36% covers · avg −4.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-16

43% overs · avg −0.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-2125%

L W L L L W W L L L L L W L L L L W L L L L W L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

10-1836%

W L L W L W W L L L L L W L L L W W L L L L W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

12-1643%

U O O U U O U U O U U O O O O U U U U O U O O O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	@MSST	L 62-86	+24.5	W +0.5	151.5	U 148
Nov 11	vsNWST	W 87-83	-6.5	L −2.5	142.5	O 170
Nov 15	vsETSU	L 74-78	-1.5	L −5.5	145.5	O 152
Nov 17	@CLEM	L 61-81	+25.5	W +5.5	144.5	U 142
Nov 22	@UTC	L 57-71	+9.5	L −4.5	149.5	U 128
Dec 1	@JXST	W 73-66	+6.5	W +13.5	134.5	O 139
Dec 3	@SF	W 65-63	+16.5	W +18.5	145.5	U 128
Dec 15	@AAMU	L 60-68	-4.5	L −12.5	140.5	U 128
Dec 19	@LMU	L 57-91	+10.5	L −23.5	140.5	O 148
Jan 1	vsSTET	L 67-70	-9.5	L −12.5	142.5	U 137
Jan 3	vsFGCU	L 55-72	+2.5	L −14.5	147.5	U 127
Jan 8	@EKU	L 80-88	+5.5	L −2.5	148.5	O 168
Jan 10	@BELL	W 82-73	+4.5	W +13.5	146.5	O 155
Jan 15	vsUNF	L 91-105	-9.5	L −23.5	157.5	O 196
Jan 17	vsJAX	L 68-90	-1.5	L −23.5	133.5	O 158
Jan 21	@QUC	L 62-87	+12.5	L −12.5	162.5	U 149
Jan 29	@FGCU	L 64-72	+9.5	W +1.5	147.5	U 136
Jan 31	@STET	W 68-66	+1.5	W +3.5	144.5	U 134
Feb 4	@CARK	L 60-81	+10.5	L −10.5	147.5	U 141
Feb 7	@APSU	L 62-91	+12.5	L −16.5	145.5	O 153
Feb 9	vsCARK	L 65-72	+6.5	L −0.5	145.5	U 137
Feb 11	vsWGA	L 73-82	-1.5	L −10.5	145.5	O 155
Feb 15	vsEKU	W 84-78	+4.5	W +10.5	150.5	O 162
Feb 18	vsQUC	L 78-85	+8.5	W +1.5	156.5	O 163
Feb 21	@LIP	L 51-73	+12.5	L −9.5	149.5	U 124
Feb 25	vsBELL	W 73-68	+2.5	W +7.5	146.5	U 141
Feb 28	@WGA	L 63-75	+4.5	L −7.5	146.5	U 138
Mar 4	vsFGCU	L 58-69	+8.5	L −2.5	139.5	U 127

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MSST

L 62-86

+0.5

NWST

W 87-83

−2.5

ETSU

L 74-78

−5.5

CLEM

L 61-81

+5.5

UTC

L 57-71

−4.5

JXST

W 73-66

+13.5

W 65-63

+18.5

AAMU

L 60-68

−12.5

LMU

L 57-91

−23.5

STET

L 67-70

−12.5

FGCU

L 55-72

−14.5

EKU

L 80-88

−2.5

BELL

W 82-73

+13.5

UNF

L 91-105

−23.5

JAX

L 68-90

−23.5

QUC

L 62-87

−12.5

FGCU

L 64-72

+1.5

STET

W 68-66

+3.5

CARK

L 60-81

−10.5

APSU

L 62-91

−16.5

CARK

L 65-72

−0.5

WGA

L 73-82

−10.5

EKU

W 84-78

+10.5

QUC

L 78-85

+1.5

LIP

L 51-73

−9.5

BELL

W 73-68

+7.5

WGA

L 63-75

−7.5

FGCU

L 58-69

−2.5

covered 10didn’t cover 18avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MSST

L 62-86

−3.5

NWST

W 87-83

+27.5

ETSU

L 74-78

+6.5

CLEM

L 61-81

−2.5

UTC

L 57-71

−21.5

JXST

W 73-66

+4.5

W 65-63

−17.5

AAMU

L 60-68

−12.5

LMU

L 57-91

+7.5

STET

L 67-70

−5.5

FGCU

L 55-72

−20.5

EKU

L 80-88

+19.5

BELL

W 82-73

+8.5

UNF

L 91-105

+38.5

JAX

L 68-90

+24.5

QUC

L 62-87

−13.5

FGCU

L 64-72

−11.5

STET

W 68-66

−10.5

CARK

L 60-81

−6.5

APSU

L 62-91

+7.5

CARK

L 65-72

−8.5

WGA

L 73-82

+9.5

EKU

W 84-78

+11.5

QUC

L 78-85

+6.5

LIP

L 51-73

−25.5

BELL

W 73-68

−5.5

WGA

L 63-75

−8.5

FGCU

L 58-69

−12.5

over 12under 16avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

UC Davis

31 games played

Straight up

17-14

55% wins

Against the spread

17-13

57% covers · avg +1.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-13

57% overs · avg +1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1455%

W L W W L W L L L W W L W L W W L W L W W W L W L W L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1357%

W L L W L W–L W W W L W L W W L L L W W W L W W W L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

17-1357%

O U U O O U–O O O O O O U U U O U O U O U U U O O O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsNDSU	W 80-68	-1.5	W +10.5	142.5	O 148
Nov 9	@PORT	L 63-67	+1.5	L −2.5	151.5	U 130
Nov 14	vsSAC	W 77-73	-4.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 150
Nov 18	@NEV	W 75-71	+12.5	W +16.5	143.5	O 146
Nov 21	@COLO	L 79-95	+14.5	L −1.5	152.5	O 174
Nov 24	vsUL	W 77-56	-9.5	W +11.5	136.5	U 133
Dec 4	@HAW	L 69-75	—	—	—	—
Dec 13	@ORE	L 62-104	+13.5	L −28.5	146.5	O 166
Dec 17	vsSEA	L 78-79	+2.5	W +1.5	143.5	O 157
Dec 21	@IDST	W 93-83	+5.5	W +15.5	143.5	O 176
Jan 1	vsCSUN	W 89-80	-3.5	W +5.5	162.5	O 169
Jan 3	vsCSUB	L 79-81	-9.5	L −11.5	151.5	O 160
Jan 8	@UCSB	W 93-86	+4.5	W +11.5	147.5	O 179
Jan 10	@CP	L 78-84	-1.5	L −7.5	168.5	U 162
Jan 15	vsCSUF	W 74-69	-3.5	W +1.5	166.5	U 143
Jan 17	vsUCI	W 75-72	+3.5	W +6.5	148.5	U 147
Jan 22	vsUCSD	L 74-80	+1.5	L −4.5	152.5	O 154
Jan 24	vsUCR	W 74-66	-9.5	L −1.5	149.5	U 140
Jan 29	@CSUN	L 78-94	+3.5	L −12.5	163.5	O 172
Jan 31	@CSUB	W 80-72	-5.5	W +2.5	152.5	U 152
Feb 5	vsUCSB	W 85-75	+3.5	W +13.5	147.5	O 160
Feb 7	vsCP	W 67-58	-5.5	W +3.5	169.5	U 125
Feb 12	@UCSD	L 51-68	+5.5	L −11.5	150.5	U 119
Feb 14	vsLBSU	W 71-54	-4.5	W +12.5	149.5	U 125
Feb 19	@CSUF	L 92-93	+1.5	W +0.5	156.5	O 185
Feb 21	@UCR	W 78-73	-2.5	W +2.5	149.5	O 151
Feb 26	vsHAW	L 73-77	+1.5	L −2.5	146.5	O 150
Mar 5	@LBSU	W 76-70	-1.5	W +4.5	149.5	U 146
Mar 7	@UCI	L 69-79	+7.5	L −2.5	144.5	O 148
Mar 11	vsUCSB	W 79-73	+4.5	W +10.5	139.5	O 152
Mar 12	vsCSUF	L 70-82	+1.5	L −10.5	155.5	U 152

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NDSU

W 80-68

+10.5

PORT

L 63-67

−2.5

SAC

W 77-73

−0.5

NEV

W 75-71

+16.5

COLO

L 79-95

−1.5

W 77-56

+11.5

ORE

L 62-104

−28.5

SEA

L 78-79

+1.5

IDST

W 93-83

+15.5

CSUN

W 89-80

+5.5

CSUB

L 79-81

−11.5

UCSB

W 93-86

+11.5

L 78-84

−7.5

CSUF

W 74-69

+1.5

UCI

W 75-72

+6.5

UCSD

L 74-80

−4.5

UCR

W 74-66

−1.5

CSUN

L 78-94

−12.5

CSUB

W 80-72

+2.5

UCSB

W 85-75

+13.5

W 67-58

+3.5

UCSD

L 51-68

−11.5

LBSU

W 71-54

+12.5

CSUF

L 92-93

+0.5

UCR

W 78-73

+2.5

HAW

L 73-77

−2.5

LBSU

W 76-70

+4.5

UCI

L 69-79

−2.5

UCSB

W 79-73

+10.5

CSUF

L 70-82

−10.5

covered 17didn’t cover 13avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NDSU

W 80-68

+5.5

PORT

L 63-67

−21.5

SAC

W 77-73

−1.5

NEV

W 75-71

+2.5

COLO

L 79-95

+21.5

W 77-56

−3.5

ORE

L 62-104

+19.5

SEA

L 78-79

+13.5

IDST

W 93-83

+32.5

CSUN

W 89-80

+6.5

CSUB

L 79-81

+8.5

UCSB

W 93-86

+31.5

L 78-84

−6.5

CSUF

W 74-69

−23.5

UCI

W 75-72

−1.5

UCSD

L 74-80

+1.5

UCR

W 74-66

−9.5

CSUN

L 78-94

+8.5

CSUB

W 80-72

−0.5

UCSB

W 85-75

+12.5

W 67-58

−44.5

UCSD

L 51-68

−31.5

LBSU

W 71-54

−24.5

CSUF

L 92-93

+28.5

UCR

W 78-73

+1.5

HAW

L 73-77

+3.5

LBSU

W 76-70

−3.5

UCI

L 69-79

+3.5

UCSB

W 79-73

+12.5

CSUF

L 70-82

−3.5

over 17under 13avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: North Alabama 1, UC Davis 1, even 3

North AlabamaBetterUC Davis

G M. Evbagharu TR9.2 pts · 7 reb · 3.1 ast Score 43

Even

G C. Sevilla13.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.8 ast Score 45

G B. Patton6 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.5 ast Score 17

UCDBig

G B. Fagbemi6.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 4.3 ast Score 53

G J. Clark TR6.1 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

No call

F I. Chappell8.4 pts · 4.6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 26

F D. Yates TR6.5 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 59

UNASmall

F V. Abosi TR4.8 pts · 4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 43

F J. Whitted TR2.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.8 ast Score 9

Even

F O. Suljanovic5.3 pts · 2.6 reb · 0.4 ast Score 12

North AlabamaBetterUC Davis

UNA offense308th of 366 · -9.6

UCDBig

UCD defense171st of 366 · -3.9

UNA defense251st of 366 · -6.6

Even

UCD offense208th of 366 · -6.3

Backcourt-3.3 · 3 players

UCDSmall

Backcourt-1.5 · 2 players

Frontcourt-1.6 · 2 players

UNASmall

Frontcourt-3.5 · 3 players

Bench-3.8 · 2 players

UCDSmall

Bench-2.2 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestUNA betterUCD betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

North Alabama

Guards

M. Evbagharu34 min · TRB. Patton18 minJ. Clark15 min · TRQ. Lax15 min · TRC. Graham-Howard14 minC. HarrisNew

Forwards

D. Yates17 min · TRJ. Whitted15 min · TRD. CarterNewA. OsmanNewJ. GulleyNew

Centers

M. ChaffeeNew

UC Davis

Guards

C. Sevilla32 minB. Fagbemi26 minJ. Stokes14 minC. Rawlins4 minC. Massamba4 min · TRY. Esso-EssisNew

Forwards

I. Chappell24 minV. Abosi17 min · TRO. Suljanovic14 minJ. Margrave10 min · TRN. NobleNewJ. DabrowskiNew

Centers

A. Szymczyk7 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UNA67.9 #317

UCD76.1 #139

Points per possession

UNA1.02 #300

UCD1.06 #234

Pace (possessions)

UNA66.2 #304

UCD71.8 #39

Shooting

Effective FG%

UNA48.0 #312

UCD51.8 #157

3-point %

UNA30.7 #327

UCD34.4 #149

3-point attempt rate

UNA33.6 #306

UCD43.5 #102

Free throw rate

UNA37.6 #111

UCD40.5 #53

Possessions

Turnover rate

UNA17.5 #238

UCD17.9 #267

Offensive rebound rate

UNA31.2 #160

UCD25.2 #334

Assists per game

UNA9.7 #363

UCD15.1 #83

Defense

Points allowed

UNA78.0 #267

UCD76.0 #217

Points allowed per possession

UNA1.18 #350

UCD1.06 #104

Opponent effective FG%

UNA55.2 #337

UCD51.7 #197

Opponent 3-point %

UNA35.7 #292

UCD33.8 #172

Turnovers forced

UNA14.6 #319

UCD19.8 #29

Defensive rebound rate

UNA67.8 #268

UCD69.5 #182

Steals per game

UNA6.3 #202

UCD7.5 #81

Blocks per game

UNA3.7 #112

UCD2.7 #276

UNA		UCD
Scoring
67.9 #317	Points per game	76.1 #139
1.02 #300	Points per possession	1.06 #234
66.2 #304	Pace (possessions)	71.8 #39
Shooting
48.0 #312	Effective FG%	51.8 #157
30.7 #327	3-point %	34.4 #149
33.6 #306	3-point attempt rate	43.5 #102
37.6 #111	Free throw rate	40.5 #53
Possessions
17.5 #238	Turnover rate	17.9 #267
31.2 #160	Offensive rebound rate	25.2 #334
9.7 #363	Assists per game	15.1 #83
Defense
78.0 #267	Points allowed	76.0 #217
1.18 #350	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #104
55.2 #337	Opponent effective FG%	51.7 #197
35.7 #292	Opponent 3-point %	33.8 #172
14.6 #319	Turnovers forced	19.8 #29
67.8 #268	Defensive rebound rate	69.5 #182
6.3 #202	Steals per game	7.5 #81
3.7 #112	Blocks per game	2.7 #276

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

North Alabama

7-21 in 2025-26 overall · 4-15 in conference · United Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs FGCU58–69
L@ West Georgia63–75
Wvs Bellarmine73–68
L@ Lipscomb51–73
Lvs Queens University Royals78–85

A week or more of rest.

UC Davis

17-14 in 2025-26 overall · 12-10 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Fullerton70–82
Wvs Santa Barbara79–73
L@ UC Irvine69–79
W@ Long Beach St76–70
Lvs Hawai'i73–77

A week or more of rest.