Lawlor Events Center · at Nevada
#168RMURobert Morris
@
#96NEVNevada
LineNEV -12.5no move
Total144.5up 1 from 143.5
Season records: Robert Morris and Nevada
RMUThis seasonNEV
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NEV 79–67 · win probability NEV 86%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
NEV -12.5
no move since the open
Total
144.5
model 146.1 · Over by 1.5
Model edge
Even
matches the market
Public on the spread
98% RMU
97% of the money
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NEV has more of the edges

RMU 1, NEV 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
RMU has played the 280th-hardest schedule, NEV the 94th. A record against a soft schedule means less
NEVBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: RMU 28.0, NEV 44.8. Allowed: RMU 40.1, NEV 38.9
NEVBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: RMU 18.6%, NEV 14.8%. Forced: RMU 15.8%, NEV 17.0%
RMUBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: RMU 54.9 and allows 50.0; NEV 50.0 and allows 51.1
NEVSmall
RMU offense vs NEV defense
Offense 179th of 366 against a defense 73rd, on the model’s ratings
NEVSmall
NEV offense vs RMU defense
Offense 104th of 366 against a defense 183rd, on the model’s ratings
NEVSmall
Home court
NEV at home. This season: NEV 0-0 at home, RMU 0-0 away
Even
Three-pointers
RMU hits 38.0% and allows 33.2%; NEV hits 35.8% and allows 33.7%. Threes are 40.7% and 32.3% of their shots
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: RMU 37.5%, NEV 32.2%. Defensive: RMU 71.2%, NEV 73.1%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: RMU 32%, NEV 38%. Transfers in: RMU 4, NEV 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: RMU plays 67.5 a game (256th fastest), NEV 67.7 (243rd). Faster games mean more points

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
SituationGamesFavorite wonFavorite coveredWent over
Home favorites of 10 to 14.5192888%48%52%
Non-conference games at this spread98888%50%51%
Games with a total of 140 to 144.5357072%50%50%

Market

Open → current
Spread
No change since the open
Total
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
RMU +600 · NEV -1000
Line movement
Median of 8 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened NEV -12.5 · now NEV -13.5 · moved 1 toward NEVmodel NEV -12
Opened 143.5 · now 144.5 · moved 1 upmodel 146
Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money
RMU +12.5SpreadNEV -12.5
Bets
Money
Over 144.5TotalUnder 144.5
Bets
Money
RMUWinnerNEV
Bets
Money

Books

8 sportsbooks · current prices
BookSpreadTotalMoneyline
RMUNEVOverUnderRMUNEV
BetMGMMGM-13.5-115+13.5-105144.5-115144.5-105+625-1000
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag-13-110+13-110144.5-115144.5-105——
BetRiversBetRivers-13.5-115+13.5-110145.5-107145.5-120+600-1115
BetUSBetUS-13-110+13-110144.5-115144.5-105——
BovadaBovada-13-115+13-105144.5-110144.5-110+575-900
DraftKingsDK-13.5-118+13.5-102144.5-110144.5-110+550-800
FanDuelFD-13.5-110+13.5-110145.5-110145.5-110+740-1250
LowVig.agLowVig.ag-13-106+13-106144.5-113144.5-103——

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
SpreadNEV -12.5NEV -12.2RMU +0.3
Total144.5146.1Over 1.6
Projected score—RMU 67 · NEV 79.2

1st-half model

ModelActual
1H spreadNEV -7.1—
1H total68.4—
1H projected scoreRMU 30.6 · NEV 37.7—

Nevada has the better starters

Position by position: Robert Morris 0, Nevada 3, even 2
Robert MorrisBetterNevada
G A. Valentine TR12 pts · 4 reb · 3.8 ast Score 71
Even
G S. Phipps TR13.7 pts · 5.9 reb · 5.1 ast Score 77
G D. Livingston9.6 pts · 2 reb · 2.9 ast Score 23
NEVSmall
G K. Kensie TR10.8 pts · 6.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 54
G T. Smith6.7 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.4 ast Score 30
NEVSmall
G P. Bandelj TR12.7 pts · 3.9 reb · 3.2 ast Score 57
F J. Dunkley TR12.4 pts · 6.7 reb · 1 ast Score 74
Even
G V. Weems10.1 pts · 4.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 84
F K. Ugwuakazi TR5.2 pts · 5.1 reb · 0.6 ast Score 63
NEVSmall
F E. Price12.8 pts · 8.5 reb · 1.1 ast Score 91
Robert MorrisBetterNevada
RMU offense179th of 366 · -5.5
NEVSmall
NEV defense73rd of 366 · +0.7
RMU defense183rd of 366 · -4.2
NEVSmall
NEV offense104th of 366 · -1.4
Backcourt-2.8 · 3 players
NEVBig
Backcourt+2.1 · 4 players
Frontcourt+1.5 · 2 players
NEVSmall
Frontcourt+3.4 · 1 player
Bench-0.3 · 3 players
Even
Bench-1.3 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestRMU betterNEV betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Robert Morris
Guards
A. Valentine33 min · TRD. Livingston26 minT. Smith19 minK. Garris16 min · TRE. Cooke9 minL. SloaneNew
Forwards
J. Dunkley29 min · TRK. Ugwuakazi19 min · TRS. Obenjo9 minD. StolbetskiyNewB. OderinloNew
Nevada
Guards
S. Phipps34 min · TRK. Kensie31 min · TRP. Bandelj31 min · TRV. Weems25 minP. White14 minM. Walker8 min
Forwards
E. Price30 minH. LucasNewK. SnyderNew
Centers
S. Majok12 min · TRC. Lath4 min · TR
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
RMUNEV
Scoring
76.8 #122Points per game76.0 #141
1.14 #67Points per possession1.12 #96
67.5 #256Pace (possessions)67.7 #243
Shooting
54.9 #39Effective FG%50.0 #236
38.0 #183-point %35.8 #70
40.7 #1543-point attempt rate32.3 #326
28.0 #343Free throw rate44.8 #6
Possessions
18.6 #305Turnover rate14.8 #56
37.5 #11Offensive rebound rate32.2 #119
17.6 #13Assists per game14.5 #119
Defense
73.4 #139Points allowed71.5 #92
1.08 #174Points allowed per possession1.06 #101
50.0 #100Opponent effective FG%51.1 #166
33.2 #135Opponent 3-point %33.7 #168
15.8 #230Turnovers forced17.0 #150
71.2 #98Defensive rebound rate73.1 #33
5.5 #292Steals per game6.6 #168
2.5 #308Blocks per game3.8 #106

Robert Morris

20-11 in 2025-26 overall · 14-8 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Detroit Mercy64–70
  • Wvs Youngstown St68–53
  • Wvs Cleveland St83–64
  • Wvs Detroit Mercy73–62
  • W@ Wright St81–68

A week or more of rest.

Nevada

24-13 in 2025-26 overall · 14-9 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Auburn69–75
  • Wvs Liberty73–63
  • Wvs Murray St89–75
  • Lvs Utah State66–79
  • Wvs Grand Canyon84–80

A week or more of rest.