UD Arena · Neutral site · NCAA Tournament
Closing line
NCSU -1.5✓ TEX covered by 3.5
NCSU -1.5✓ TEX covered by 3.5Closing total157.5Under by 23.5
 TEX | This season | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| 17-14 | Record | 20-13 |
| 16-15 | ATS | 15-18 |
| 19-12 | O/U | 21-12 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: TEX 82–81 NCSU · ✓ TEX (55%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | 30 | 38 | 68 |
| NCSU | 29 | 37 | 66 |
1st half: TEX 30, NCSU 29 (TEX by 1). The model had TEX by 1.0 and a total of 75.9 (actual 59).
Team stats
| TEX | NCSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 21-57 37% | Field goals | 23-59 39% |
| 5-17 29% | 3-pointers | 6-16 38% |
| 21-29 72% | Free throws | 14-18 78% |
| 45 15 off | Rebounds | 33 7 off |
| 10 | Assists | 10 |
| 7 | Steals | 8 |
| 5 | Blocks | 5 |
| 12 | Turnovers | 7 |
| 16 | Fouls | 22 |
| 28 | Points in paint | 32 |
| 8 | Fast-break points | 6 |
Players
| TEX | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dailyn Swain G | 38 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 2-9 | 1-3 |
| Jordan Pope G | 37 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2-8 | 1-5 |
| Tramon Mark G | 33 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 7-14 | 2-5 |
| Matas Vokietaitis C | 26 | 15 | 8 | 0 | 4-11 | 0-0 |
| Camden Heide F | 14 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Chendall Weaver G | 27 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Nic Codie F | 14 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| Simeon Wilcher G | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-2 |
Did not play: John Clark, Cole Bott, Brandon Taylor, Anthon McDermott, Lassina Traore, Declan Duru Jr., Lewis Obiorah
| NCSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrion Williams F | 39 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 8-18 | 3-6 |
| Quadir Copeland G | 35 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 7-16 | 0-0 |
| Paul McNeil Jr. G | 32 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 4-11 | 3-8 |
| Tre Holloman G | 25 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Ven-Allen Lubin F | 23 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 2-6 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Matt Able G | 25 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Musa Sagnia C | 10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Terrance Arceneaux G | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Scottie Ebube C | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jordan Snell, Zymicah Wilkins, Colt Langdon, Jerry Deng, Jayme Kontuniemi, Alyn Breed
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketNCSU -1.5
ModelTEX -1.5
Model edgeTEX +3.0
W TEX covered
Total
Market157.5
Model162.5
Model edgeOver 5.0
L Under
Projected score
TEX 82 · NCSU 80.5
TEX 68 · NCSU 66
Win probability
TEX 55%
1st half
Spread
TEX -1.0
TEX -1.0
Total
75.9
59 points
Projected score
TEX 38.4 · NCSU 37.5
TEX 30 · NCSU 29
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenTEX -1.5
3 → NCSU
CloseNCSU -1.5
3 pts toward NCSU
Total
Open165.5
▼ 8
Close157.5
Down 8 since the open
Moneyline
TEX +100 · NCSU -120
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened TEX -1.5 · closed NCSU -1.5 · moved 3 toward NCSUmodel TEX -1.5
model TEX -1.5
Opened 165.5 · closed 157.5 · moved 8 downmodel 162.5
model 162.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | 5-5 50% | 3-7 30% | 7-3 70% |
| NCSU | 3-7 30% | 2-8 20% | 7-3 70% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
TEX 2–0 NCSUTEX leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · TEX has won the last 2 meetings · TEX 2-0 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2025-26 | NCSU 97 vs TEX 102 | TEX +1.5 | TEX W |
| Dec 4, 2024-25 | TEX 63 @ NCSU 59 | NCSU +2.5 | TEX W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Texas
31 games played
Straight up
17-14
55% wins
Against the spread
16-15
52% covers · avg −0.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
19-12
61% overs · avg +3.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs DUKE | L 60-75 | +10.5 | L −4.5 | 153.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 8 | vs LAF | W 97-60 | -25.5 | W +11.5 | 153.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 12 | vs FDU | W 93-58 | -31.5 | W +3.5 | 158.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 15 | vs KC | W 71-55 | -31.5 | L −15.5 | 159.5 | U 126 |
| Nov 18 | vs RID | W 99-65 | -30.5 | W +3.5 | 143.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 24 | vs ASU | L 86-87 | -6.5 | L −7.5 | 153.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 26 | vsNCSU | W 102-97 | +1.5 | W +6.5 | 161.5 | O 199 |
| Dec 3 | vs UVA | L 69-88 | -3.5 | L −22.5 | 154.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 8 | vs SOU | W 95-69 | -22.5 | W +3.5 | 158.5 | O 164 |
| Dec 12 | @ CONN | L 63-71 | +11.5 | W +3.5 | 145.5 | U 134 |
| Dec 16 | vs LEM | W 95-53 | -29.5 | W +12.5 | 152.5 | U 148 |
| Dec 22 | vs UMES | W 94-71 | -33.5 | L −10.5 | 138.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 3 | vs MSST | L 98-101 | -9.5 | L −12.5 | 157.5 | O 199 |
| Jan 6 | @ TENN | L 71-85 | +12.5 | L −1.5 | 153.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 10 | @ ALA | W 92-88 | +11.5 | W +15.5 | 177.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 14 | vs VAN | W 80-64 | +3.5 | W +19.5 | 163.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 17 | vs TA&M | L 70-74 | -4.5 | L −8.5 | 166.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 21 | @ UK | L 80-85 | +7.5 | W +2.5 | 152.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 24 | vs UGA | W 87-67 | -3.5 | W +16.5 | 168.5 | U 154 |
| Jan 28 | @ AUB | L 82-88 | +6.5 | W +0.5 | 154.5 | O 170 |
| Jan 31 | @ OU | W 79-69 | -1.5 | W +8.5 | 155.5 | U 148 |
| Feb 3 | vs SC | W 84-75 | -13.5 | L −4.5 | 149.5 | O 159 |
| Feb 7 | vs MISS | W 79-68 | -9.5 | W +1.5 | 145.5 | O 147 |
| Feb 14 | @ MIZ | W 85-68 | +2.5 | W +19.5 | 150.5 | O 153 |
| Feb 17 | vs LSU | W 88-85 | -10.5 | L −7.5 | 150.5 | O 173 |
| Feb 21 | @UGA | L 80-91 | +2.5 | L −8.5 | 162.5 | O 171 |
| Feb 25 | vs FLA | L 71-84 | +6.5 | L −6.5 | 157.5 | U 155 |
| Feb 28 | @TA&M | W 76-70 | +2.5 | W +8.5 | 159.5 | U 146 |
| Mar 4 | @ ARK | L 85-105 | +6.5 | L −13.5 | 163.5 | O 190 |
| Mar 7 | vsOU | L 85-88 | -6.5 | L −9.5 | 154.5 | O 173 |
| Mar 11 | vsMISS | L 66-76 | -5.5 | L −15.5 | 147.5 | U 142 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsDUKE
DUKEL 60-75
−4.5
8
vsLAF
LAFW 97-60
+11.5
12
vsFDU
FDUW 93-58
+3.5
15
vsKC
KCW 71-55
−15.5
18
vsRID
RIDW 99-65
+3.5
24
vsASU
ASUL 86-87
−7.5
26
vsNCSU
NCSUW 102-97
+6.5
3
vsUVA
UVAL 69-88
−22.5
8
vsSOU
SOUW 95-69
+3.5
12
@CONN
CONNL 63-71
+3.5
16
vsLEM
LEMW 95-53
+12.5
22
vsUMES
UMESW 94-71
−10.5
3
vsMSST
MSSTL 98-101
−12.5
6
@TENN
TENNL 71-85
−1.5
10
@ALA
ALAW 92-88
+15.5
14
vsVAN
VANW 80-64
+19.5
17
vsTA&M
TA&ML 70-74
−8.5
21
@UK
UKL 80-85
+2.5
24
vsUGA
UGAW 87-67
+16.5
28
@AUB
AUBL 82-88
+0.5
31
@OU
OUW 79-69
+8.5
3
vsSC
SCW 84-75
−4.5
7
vsMISS
MISSW 79-68
+1.5
14
@MIZ
MIZW 85-68
+19.5
17
vsLSU
LSUW 88-85
−7.5
21
@UGA
UGAL 80-91
−8.5
25
vsFLA
FLAL 71-84
−6.5
28
@TA&M
TA&MW 76-70
+8.5
4
@ARK
ARKL 85-105
−13.5
7
vsOU
OUL 85-88
−9.5
11
vsMISS
MISSL 66-76
−15.5
covered 16didn’t cover 15avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsDUKE
DUKEL 60-75
−18.5
8
vsLAF
LAFW 97-60
+3.5
12
vsFDU
FDUW 93-58
−7.5
15
vsKC
KCW 71-55
−33.5
18
vsRID
RIDW 99-65
+20.5
24
vsASU
ASUL 86-87
+19.5
26
vsNCSU
NCSUW 102-97
+37.5
3
vsUVA
UVAL 69-88
+2.5
8
vsSOU
SOUW 95-69
+5.5
12
@CONN
CONNL 63-71
−11.5
16
vsLEM
LEMW 95-53
−4.5
22
vsUMES
UMESW 94-71
+26.5
3
vsMSST
MSSTL 98-101
+41.5
6
@TENN
TENNL 71-85
+2.5
10
@ALA
ALAW 92-88
+2.5
14
vsVAN
VANW 80-64
−19.5
17
vsTA&M
TA&ML 70-74
−22.5
21
@UK
UKL 80-85
+12.5
24
vsUGA
UGAW 87-67
−14.5
28
@AUB
AUBL 82-88
+15.5
31
@OU
OUW 79-69
−7.5
3
vsSC
SCW 84-75
+9.5
7
vsMISS
MISSW 79-68
+1.5
14
@MIZ
MIZW 85-68
+2.5
17
vsLSU
LSUW 88-85
+22.5
21
@UGA
UGAL 80-91
+8.5
25
vsFLA
FLAL 71-84
−2.5
28
@TA&M
TA&MW 76-70
−13.5
4
@ARK
ARKL 85-105
+26.5
7
vsOU
OUL 85-88
+18.5
11
vsMISS
MISSL 66-76
−5.5
over 19under 12avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
NC State
33 games played
Straight up
20-13
61% wins
Against the spread
15-18
45% covers · avg −1.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
21-12
64% overs · avg +6.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs NCCU | W 114-66 | -31.5 | W +16.5 | 145.5 | O 180 |
| Nov 7 | vs UAB | W 94-70 | -19.5 | W +4.5 | 162.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 12 | vs UNCG | W 110-64 | -30.5 | W +15.5 | 153.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 17 | vs VCU | W 85-79 | -11.5 | L −5.5 | 164.5 | U 164 |
| Nov 24 | vs HALL | L 74-85 | -7.5 | L −18.5 | 143.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 25 | vs BOIS | W 81-70 | -6.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 26 | vsTEX | L 97-102 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 161.5 | O 199 |
| Dec 3 | @AUB | L 73-83 | +5.5 | L −4.5 | 162.5 | U 156 |
| Dec 6 | vs UNCA | W 75-63 | -28.5 | L −16.5 | 155.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 10 | vs LIB | W 85-45 | -12.5 | W +27.5 | 149.5 | U 130 |
| Dec 13 | vs KU | L 76-77 | -1.5 | L −2.5 | 148.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 17 | vs TXSO | W 108-72 | -34.5 | W +1.5 | 152.5 | O 180 |
| Dec 21 | vsMISS | W 76-62 | -7.5 | W +6.5 | 148.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 31 | vs WAKE | W 70-57 | -10.5 | W +2.5 | 159.5 | U 127 |
| Jan 3 | vsUVA | L 61-76 | -4.5 | L −19.5 | 151.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 6 | @ BC | W 79-71 | -11.5 | L −3.5 | 141.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 10 | @ FSU | W 113-69 | -4.5 | W +39.5 | 160.5 | O 182 |
| Jan 17 | vs GT | L 74-78 | -17.5 | L −21.5 | 154.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 20 | @ CLEM | W 80-76 | +2.5 | W +6.5 | 142.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 24 | @ PITT | W 81-72 | -6.5 | W +2.5 | 144.5 | O 153 |
| Jan 27 | vs SYR | W 88-68 | -10.5 | W +9.5 | 151.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 31 | @WAKE | W 96-78 | -5.5 | W +12.5 | 156.5 | O 174 |
| Feb 3 | @ SMU | W 84-83 | -1.5 | L −0.5 | 159.5 | O 167 |
| Feb 7 | vs VT | W 82-73 | -10.5 | L −1.5 | 154.5 | O 155 |
| Feb 9 | @ LOU | L 77-118 | +6.5 | L −34.5 | 161.5 | O 195 |
| Feb 14 | vs MIA | L 76-77 | -5.5 | L −6.5 | 157.5 | U 153 |
| Feb 17 | vs UNC | W 82-58 | -8.5 | W +15.5 | 156.5 | U 140 |
| Feb 24 | @UVA | L 61-90 | +6.5 | L −22.5 | 151.5 | U 151 |
| Feb 28 | @ ND | L 90-96 | -6.5 | L −12.5 | 153.5 | O 186 |
| Mar 2 | vsDUKE | L 64-93 | +8.5 | L −20.5 | 150.5 | O 157 |
| Mar 7 | vs STAN | L 84-85 | -9.5 | L −10.5 | 152.5 | O 169 |
| Mar 11 | vsPITT | W 98-88 | -8.5 | W +1.5 | 144.5 | O 186 |
| Mar 12 | vsUVA | L 74-81 | +6.5 | L −0.5 | 153.5 | O 155 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsNCCU
NCCUW 114-66
+16.5
7
vsUAB
UABW 94-70
+4.5
12
vsUNCG
UNCGW 110-64
+15.5
17
vsVCU
VCUW 85-79
−5.5
24
vsHALL
HALLL 74-85
−18.5
25
vsBOIS
BOISW 81-70
+4.5
26
vsTEX
TEXL 97-102
−6.5
3
@AUB
AUBL 73-83
−4.5
6
vsUNCA
UNCAW 75-63
−16.5
10
vsLIB
LIBW 85-45
+27.5
13
vsKU
KUL 76-77
−2.5
17
vsTXSO
TXSOW 108-72
+1.5
21
vsMISS
MISSW 76-62
+6.5
31
vsWAKE
WAKEW 70-57
+2.5
3
vsUVA
UVAL 61-76
−19.5
6
@BC
BCW 79-71
−3.5
10
@FSU
FSUW 113-69
+39.5
17
vsGT
GTL 74-78
−21.5
20
@CLEM
CLEMW 80-76
+6.5
24
@PITT
PITTW 81-72
+2.5
27
vsSYR
SYRW 88-68
+9.5
31
@WAKE
WAKEW 96-78
+12.5
3
@SMU
SMUW 84-83
−0.5
7
vsVT
VTW 82-73
−1.5
9
@LOU
LOUL 77-118
−34.5
14
vsMIA
MIAL 76-77
−6.5
17
vsUNC
UNCW 82-58
+15.5
24
@UVA
UVAL 61-90
−22.5
28
@ND
NDL 90-96
−12.5
2
vsDUKE
DUKEL 64-93
−20.5
7
vsSTAN
STANL 84-85
−10.5
11
vsPITT
PITTW 98-88
+1.5
12
vsUVA
UVAL 74-81
−0.5
covered 15didn’t cover 18avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsNCCU
NCCUW 114-66
+34.5
7
vsUAB
UABW 94-70
+1.5
12
vsUNCG
UNCGW 110-64
+20.5
17
vsVCU
VCUW 85-79
−0.5
24
vsHALL
HALLL 74-85
+15.5
25
vsBOIS
BOISW 81-70
−1.5
26
vsTEX
TEXL 97-102
+37.5
3
@AUB
AUBL 73-83
−6.5
6
vsUNCA
UNCAW 75-63
−17.5
10
vsLIB
LIBW 85-45
−19.5
13
vsKU
KUL 76-77
+4.5
17
vsTXSO
TXSOW 108-72
+27.5
21
vsMISS
MISSW 76-62
−10.5
31
vsWAKE
WAKEW 70-57
−32.5
3
vsUVA
UVAL 61-76
−14.5
6
@BC
BCW 79-71
+8.5
10
@FSU
FSUW 113-69
+21.5
17
vsGT
GTL 74-78
−2.5
20
@CLEM
CLEMW 80-76
+13.5
24
@PITT
PITTW 81-72
+8.5
27
vsSYR
SYRW 88-68
+4.5
31
@WAKE
WAKEW 96-78
+17.5
3
@SMU
SMUW 84-83
+7.5
7
vsVT
VTW 82-73
+0.5
9
@LOU
LOUL 77-118
+33.5
14
vsMIA
MIAL 76-77
−4.5
17
vsUNC
UNCW 82-58
−16.5
24
@UVA
UVAL 61-90
−0.5
28
@ND
NDL 90-96
+32.5
2
vsDUKE
DUKEL 64-93
+6.5
7
vsSTAN
STANL 84-85
+16.5
11
vsPITT
PITTW 98-88
+41.5
12
vsUVA
UVAL 74-81
+1.5
over 21under 12avg +6.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Texas
17-14 overall · 9-10 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Ole Miss66–76
- Lvs Oklahoma85–88
- L@ Arkansas85–105
- W@ Texas A&M76–70
- Lvs Florida71–84
6 days since their last game.
NC State
20-13 overall · 11-9 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Virginia74–81
- Wvs Pitt98–88
- Lvs Stanford84–85
- Lvs Duke64–93
- L@ Notre Dame90–96
5 days since their last game.