Lee's Family Forum · Neutral site · Conference game · Conference tournament
Closing line
UCSB -4.5✓ UCD covered by 10.5
UCSB -4.5✓ UCD covered by 10.5Closing total139.5Over by 12.5
| UCSB | This season | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| 16-13 | Record | 16-13 |
| 12-17 | ATS | 16-12 |
| 15-14 | O/U | 16-12 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: UCSB 74–73 UCD · ✗ UCSB (55%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UCSB | 31 | 42 | 73 |
| UCD | 34 | 45 | 79 |
1st half: UCSB 31, UCD 34 (UCD by 3). The model had UCSB by 1.0 and a total of 68.8 (actual 65).
Team stats
| UCSB | UCD | |
|---|---|---|
| 25-62 40% | Field goals | 28-58 48% |
| 5-26 19% | 3-pointers | 7-23 30% |
| 18-23 78% | Free throws | 16-22 73% |
| 38 11 off | Rebounds | 35 5 off |
| 5 | Assists | 13 |
| 7 | Steals | 8 |
| 4 | Blocks | 2 |
| 12 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 19 | Fouls | 15 |
| 40 | Points in paint | 22 |
| 15 | Fast-break points | 5 |
Players
| UCSB | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan Mahaney G | 39 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 3-15 | 2-10 |
| Miro Little G | 34 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 5-12 | 0-4 |
| Colin Smith F | 29 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 2-5 | 0-2 |
| Hosana Kitenge F | 25 | 15 | 6 | 0 | 6-6 | 0-0 |
| Zion Sensley G | 18 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 2-8 | 1-5 |
| Bench | ||||||
| CJ Shaw G | 29 | 20 | 2 | 2 | 7-13 | 2-5 |
| Marvin McGhee IV G | 22 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Koat Keat Tong F | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Kyle Haughy, John Simcoe, Luke Zuffelato, Michael Simcoe, ZZ Clark, Bryce Bedgood, Evans Kipruto, Isaac Shingange, Jason Fontenet II
| UCD | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carl Daughtery Jr. G | 37 | 24 | 8 | 0 | 9-15 | 5-9 |
| Isaiah Chappell F | 33 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 2-9 | 0-3 |
| Connor Sevilla G | 26 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 1-6 | 0-4 |
| Marcus Wilson G | 25 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 7-10 | 0-1 |
| Niko Rocak F | 20 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Brayden Fagbemi G | 28 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4-7 | 2-3 |
| Omer Suljanovic F | 27 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 5-11 | 0-3 |
| Cyril Franklin Jr. G | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Chase Rawlins, Abdullah Amzil, Jonathan Noudjihidi, Ylan Esso-Essis, Nils Cooper, Jalen Stokes
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUCSB -4.5
ModelUCSB -1.5
Model edgeUCD +3.0
W UCD covered
Total
Market139.5
Model147.1
Model edgeOver 7.6
W Over
Projected score
UCSB 74.3 · UCD 72.8
UCSB 73 · UCD 79
Win probability
UCSB 55%
1st half
Spread
UCSB -1.0
UCD -3.0
Total
68.8
65 points
Projected score
UCSB 34.9 · UCD 33.9
UCSB 31 · UCD 34
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUCSB -5.5
1 → UCD
CloseUCSB -4.5
1 pt toward UCD
Total
Open142.5
▼ 3
Close139.5
Down 3 since the open
Moneyline
UCSB -205 · UCD +170
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UCSB -5.5 · closed UCSB -4.5 · moved 1 toward UCDmodel UCSB -1.5
model UCSB -1.5
Opened 142.5 · closed 139.5 · moved 3 downmodel 147
model 147
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UCSB | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
| UCD | 6-4 60% | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
UCSB 3–6 UCDUCD leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · UCD has won the last 6 meetings · UCSB 3-6 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2025-26 | UCSB 75 @ UCD 85 | UCD +3.5 | UCD W |
| Jan 8, 2025-26 | UCD 93 @ UCSB 86 | UCSB -4.5 | UCD W |
| Jan 18, 2024-25 | UCD 64 @ UCSB 60 | UCSB -8.5 | UCD W |
| Dec 7, 2024-25 | UCSB 60 @ UCD 71 | UCD +2.5 | UCD W |
| Feb 1, 2023-24 | UCD 79 @ UCSB 69 | UCSB -3.5 | UCD W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Santa Barbara
29 games played
Straight up
16-13
55% wins
Against the spread
12-17
41% covers · avg −0.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
15-14
52% overs · avg +2.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | vs SJSU | W 85-74 | -9.5 | W +1.5 | 146.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 11 | @ SAC | W 92-87 | -7.5 | L −2.5 | 161.5 | O 179 |
| Nov 17 | vs LMU | L 74-78 | -3.5 | L −7.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 22 | @ NEV | L 64-77 | +5.5 | L −7.5 | 147.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 28 | vs LEH | W 72-70 | -10.5 | L −8.5 | 146.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 29 | vs SEA | W 74-71 | +2.5 | W +5.5 | 142.5 | O 145 |
| Dec 4 | vs LBSU | W 84-77 | -13.5 | L −6.5 | 141.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 6 | vs CSUB | W 109-84 | -12.5 | W +12.5 | 145.5 | O 193 |
| Dec 13 | vs UVU | L 53-68 | +5.5 | L −9.5 | 146.5 | U 121 |
| Dec 17 | @ GB | L 64-67 | -7.5 | L −10.5 | 140.5 | U 131 |
| Dec 22 | vs PORT | W 79-61 | -9.5 | W +8.5 | 147.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 1 | @ CSUF | L 84-95 | -3.5 | L −14.5 | 155.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 3 | @ CSUN | L 65-74 | +2.5 | L −6.5 | 156.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 8 | vsUCD | L 86-93 | -4.5 | L −11.5 | 147.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 15 | @CSUB | W 75-69 | -7.5 | L −1.5 | 144.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 17 | vs HAW | W 77-62 | +2.5 | W +17.5 | 143.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 22 | vs CP | W 107-67 | -8.5 | W +31.5 | 159.5 | O 174 |
| Jan 24 | @LBSU | W 74-71 | -4.5 | L −1.5 | 144.5 | O 145 |
| Jan 29 | @ UCSD | W 62-48 | +4.5 | W +18.5 | 145.5 | U 110 |
| Jan 31 | vsCSUF | W 83-69 | -8.5 | W +5.5 | 153.5 | U 152 |
| Feb 5 | @UCD | L 75-85 | -3.5 | L −13.5 | 147.5 | O 160 |
| Feb 7 | vs UCI | W 84-79 | -2.5 | W +2.5 | 141.5 | O 163 |
| Feb 12 | @ UCR | W 76-68 | -6.5 | W +1.5 | 145.5 | U 144 |
| Feb 14 | @CP | L 79-89 | -3.5 | L −13.5 | 159.5 | O 168 |
| Feb 19 | vsCSUN | L 83-85 | -5.5 | L −7.5 | 156.5 | O 168 |
| Feb 21 | @HAW | L 75-78 | +5.5 | W +2.5 | 145.5 | O 153 |
| Feb 26 | vsUCR | W 70-59 | -10.5 | W +0.5 | 145.5 | U 129 |
| Feb 28 | @UCI | L 60-64 | +3.5 | L −0.5 | 138.5 | U 124 |
| Mar 7 | vsUCSD | L 63-64 | -2.5 | L −3.5 | 141.5 | U 127 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
8
vsSJSU
SJSUW 85-74
+1.5
11
@SAC
SACW 92-87
−2.5
17
vsLMU
LMUL 74-78
−7.5
22
@NEV
NEVL 64-77
−7.5
28
vsLEH
LEHW 72-70
−8.5
29
vsSEA
SEAW 74-71
+5.5
4
vsLBSU
LBSUW 84-77
−6.5
6
vsCSUB
CSUBW 109-84
+12.5
13
vsUVU
UVUL 53-68
−9.5
17
@GB
GBL 64-67
−10.5
22
vsPORT
PORTW 79-61
+8.5
1
@CSUF
CSUFL 84-95
−14.5
3
@CSUN
CSUNL 65-74
−6.5
8
vsUCD
UCDL 86-93
−11.5
15
@CSUB
CSUBW 75-69
−1.5
17
vsHAW
HAWW 77-62
+17.5
22
vsCP
CPW 107-67
+31.5
24
@LBSU
LBSUW 74-71
−1.5
29
@UCSD
UCSDW 62-48
+18.5
31
vsCSUF
CSUFW 83-69
+5.5
5
@UCD
UCDL 75-85
−13.5
7
vsUCI
UCIW 84-79
+2.5
12
@UCR
UCRW 76-68
+1.5
14
@CP
CPL 79-89
−13.5
19
vsCSUN
CSUNL 83-85
−7.5
21
@HAW
HAWL 75-78
+2.5
26
vsUCR
UCRW 70-59
+0.5
28
@UCI
UCIL 60-64
−0.5
7
vsUCSD
UCSDL 63-64
−3.5
covered 12didn’t cover 17avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
8
vsSJSU
SJSUW 85-74
+12.5
11
@SAC
SACW 92-87
+17.5
17
vsLMU
LMUL 74-78
+6.5
22
@NEV
NEVL 64-77
−6.5
28
vsLEH
LEHW 72-70
−4.5
29
vsSEA
SEAW 74-71
+2.5
4
vsLBSU
LBSUW 84-77
+19.5
6
vsCSUB
CSUBW 109-84
+47.5
13
vsUVU
UVUL 53-68
−25.5
17
@GB
GBL 64-67
−9.5
22
vsPORT
PORTW 79-61
−7.5
1
@CSUF
CSUFL 84-95
+23.5
3
@CSUN
CSUNL 65-74
−17.5
8
vsUCD
UCDL 86-93
+31.5
15
@CSUB
CSUBW 75-69
−0.5
17
vsHAW
HAWW 77-62
−4.5
22
vsCP
CPW 107-67
+14.5
24
@LBSU
LBSUW 74-71
+0.5
29
@UCSD
UCSDW 62-48
−35.5
31
vsCSUF
CSUFW 83-69
−1.5
5
@UCD
UCDL 75-85
+12.5
7
vsUCI
UCIW 84-79
+21.5
12
@UCR
UCRW 76-68
−1.5
14
@CP
CPL 79-89
+8.5
19
vsCSUN
CSUNL 83-85
+11.5
21
@HAW
HAWL 75-78
+7.5
26
vsUCR
UCRW 70-59
−16.5
28
@UCI
UCIL 60-64
−14.5
7
vsUCSD
UCSDL 63-64
−14.5
over 15under 14avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
UC Davis
29 games played
Straight up
16-13
55% wins
Against the spread
16-12
57% covers · avg +1.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
16-12
57% overs · avg +1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | vs NDSU | W 80-68 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 142.5 | O 148 |
| Nov 9 | @PORT | L 63-67 | +1.5 | L −2.5 | 151.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 14 | vsSAC | W 77-73 | -4.5 | L −0.5 | 151.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 18 | @NEV | W 75-71 | +12.5 | W +16.5 | 143.5 | O 146 |
| Nov 21 | @ COLO | L 79-95 | +14.5 | L −1.5 | 152.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 24 | vs UL | W 77-56 | -9.5 | W +11.5 | 136.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 4 | @HAW | L 69-75 | — | — | — | — |
| Dec 13 | @ ORE | L 62-104 | +13.5 | L −28.5 | 146.5 | O 166 |
| Dec 17 | vsSEA | L 78-79 | +2.5 | W +1.5 | 143.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 21 | @ IDST | W 93-83 | +5.5 | W +15.5 | 143.5 | O 176 |
| Jan 1 | vsCSUN | W 89-80 | -3.5 | W +5.5 | 162.5 | O 169 |
| Jan 3 | vsCSUB | L 79-81 | -9.5 | L −11.5 | 151.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 8 | @UCSB | W 93-86 | +4.5 | W +11.5 | 147.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 10 | @CP | L 78-84 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 168.5 | U 162 |
| Jan 15 | vsCSUF | W 74-69 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 166.5 | U 143 |
| Jan 17 | vsUCI | W 75-72 | +3.5 | W +6.5 | 148.5 | U 147 |
| Jan 22 | vsUCSD | L 74-80 | +1.5 | L −4.5 | 152.5 | O 154 |
| Jan 24 | vsUCR | W 74-66 | -9.5 | L −1.5 | 149.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 29 | @CSUN | L 78-94 | +3.5 | L −12.5 | 163.5 | O 172 |
| Jan 31 | @CSUB | W 80-72 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 152.5 | U 152 |
| Feb 5 | vsUCSB | W 85-75 | +3.5 | W +13.5 | 147.5 | O 160 |
| Feb 7 | vsCP | W 67-58 | -5.5 | W +3.5 | 169.5 | U 125 |
| Feb 12 | @UCSD | L 51-68 | +5.5 | L −11.5 | 150.5 | U 119 |
| Feb 14 | vsLBSU | W 71-54 | -4.5 | W +12.5 | 149.5 | U 125 |
| Feb 19 | @CSUF | L 92-93 | +1.5 | W +0.5 | 156.5 | O 185 |
| Feb 21 | @UCR | W 78-73 | -2.5 | W +2.5 | 149.5 | O 151 |
| Feb 26 | vsHAW | L 73-77 | +1.5 | L −2.5 | 146.5 | O 150 |
| Mar 5 | @LBSU | W 76-70 | -1.5 | W +4.5 | 149.5 | U 146 |
| Mar 7 | @UCI | L 69-79 | +7.5 | L −2.5 | 144.5 | O 148 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
5
vsNDSU
NDSUW 80-68
+10.5
9
@PORT
PORTL 63-67
−2.5
14
vsSAC
SACW 77-73
−0.5
18
@NEV
NEVW 75-71
+16.5
21
@COLO
COLOL 79-95
−1.5
24
vsUL
ULW 77-56
+11.5
13
@ORE
OREL 62-104
−28.5
17
vsSEA
SEAL 78-79
+1.5
21
@IDST
IDSTW 93-83
+15.5
1
vsCSUN
CSUNW 89-80
+5.5
3
vsCSUB
CSUBL 79-81
−11.5
8
@UCSB
UCSBW 93-86
+11.5
10
@CP
CPL 78-84
−7.5
15
vsCSUF
CSUFW 74-69
+1.5
17
vsUCI
UCIW 75-72
+6.5
22
vsUCSD
UCSDL 74-80
−4.5
24
vsUCR
UCRW 74-66
−1.5
29
@CSUN
CSUNL 78-94
−12.5
31
@CSUB
CSUBW 80-72
+2.5
5
vsUCSB
UCSBW 85-75
+13.5
7
vsCP
CPW 67-58
+3.5
12
@UCSD
UCSDL 51-68
−11.5
14
vsLBSU
LBSUW 71-54
+12.5
19
@CSUF
CSUFL 92-93
+0.5
21
@UCR
UCRW 78-73
+2.5
26
vsHAW
HAWL 73-77
−2.5
5
@LBSU
LBSUW 76-70
+4.5
7
@UCI
UCIL 69-79
−2.5
covered 16didn’t cover 12avg +1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
5
vsNDSU
NDSUW 80-68
+5.5
9
@PORT
PORTL 63-67
−21.5
14
vsSAC
SACW 77-73
−1.5
18
@NEV
NEVW 75-71
+2.5
21
@COLO
COLOL 79-95
+21.5
24
vsUL
ULW 77-56
−3.5
13
@ORE
OREL 62-104
+19.5
17
vsSEA
SEAL 78-79
+13.5
21
@IDST
IDSTW 93-83
+32.5
1
vsCSUN
CSUNW 89-80
+6.5
3
vsCSUB
CSUBL 79-81
+8.5
8
@UCSB
UCSBW 93-86
+31.5
10
@CP
CPL 78-84
−6.5
15
vsCSUF
CSUFW 74-69
−23.5
17
vsUCI
UCIW 75-72
−1.5
22
vsUCSD
UCSDL 74-80
+1.5
24
vsUCR
UCRW 74-66
−9.5
29
@CSUN
CSUNL 78-94
+8.5
31
@CSUB
CSUBW 80-72
−0.5
5
vsUCSB
UCSBW 85-75
+12.5
7
vsCP
CPW 67-58
−44.5
12
@UCSD
UCSDL 51-68
−31.5
14
vsLBSU
LBSUW 71-54
−24.5
19
@CSUF
CSUFL 92-93
+28.5
21
@UCR
UCRW 78-73
+1.5
26
vsHAW
HAWL 73-77
+3.5
5
@LBSU
LBSUW 76-70
−3.5
7
@UCI
UCIL 69-79
+3.5
over 16under 12avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Santa Barbara
16-13 overall · 11-9 in conference · Big West Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs UC San Diego63–64
- L@ UC Irvine60–64
- Wvs UC Riverside70–59
- L@ Hawai'i75–78
- Lvs CSU Northridge83–85
4 days since their last game.
UC Davis
16-13 overall · 11-9 in conference · Mountain West Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ UC Irvine69–79
- W@ Long Beach St76–70
- Lvs Hawai'i73–77
- W@ UC Riverside78–73
- L@ Fullerton92–93
4 days since their last game.