Spectrum Center · Neutral site · Conference game · Conference tournament
Closing line
FSU -1.5✓ FSU covered by 4.5
FSU -1.5✓ FSU covered by 4.5Closing total154.5Over by 29.5
 CAL | This season | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| 20-10 | Record | 17-14 |
| 16-14 | ATS | 18-13 |
| 12-18 | O/U | 15-16 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: CAL 77–79 FSU · ✓ FSU (56%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAL | 32 | 57 | 89 |
| FSU | 46 | 49 | 95 |
1st half: CAL 32, FSU 46 (FSU by 14). The model had FSU by 1.0 and a total of 72.9 (actual 78).
Team stats
| CAL | FSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 31-61 51% | Field goals | 35-61 57% |
| 11-27 41% | 3-pointers | 13-28 46% |
| 16-24 67% | Free throws | 12-19 63% |
| 38 15 off | Rebounds | 26 6 off |
| 11 | Assists | 19 |
| 3 | Steals | 8 |
| 3 | Blocks | 4 |
| 12 | Turnovers | 6 |
| 17 | Fouls | 19 |
| 34 | Points in paint | 40 |
| 11 | Fast-break points | 8 |
Players
| CAL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dai Dai Ames G | 37 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 9-18 | 4-8 |
| John Camden F | 31 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 4-10 | 3-8 |
| Chris Bell F | 30 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 7-12 | 3-7 |
| Justin Pippen G | 28 | 15 | 2 | 6 | 5-8 | 0-2 |
| Lee Dort F | 28 | 7 | 18 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| DeJuan Campbell G | 15 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Semetri Carr G | 13 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Milos Ilic C | 7 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Nolan Dorsey G | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Sammie Yeanay F | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Rytis Petraitis, Luke Butler, Jorell Clark, BJ Fisher, Mantas Kocanas, Stephon Marbury II, Jovani Ruff, Dhiaukuei Manyiel Dut
| FSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert McCray V G | 33 | 30 | 5 | 8 | 10-17 | 4-7 |
| Lajae Jones G | 32 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6-9 | 2-4 |
| Thomas Bassong F | 28 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 4-7 | 0-2 |
| Alex Steen F | 27 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Chauncey Wiggins F | 24 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 5-9 | 2-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Martin Somerville G | 26 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Kobe MaGee G | 26 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 4-8 | 4-8 |
| Shah Muhammad F | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jasen Lopez, Xavier Osceola, AJ Swinton, Cam Miles, Max Garcia-Plata, Alier Maluk, Jalen Crawford
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketFSU -1.5
ModelFSU -1.9
Model edgeFSU +0.4
W FSU covered
Total
Market154.5
Model155.9
Model edgeOver 1.4
W Over
Projected score
CAL 77 · FSU 78.9
CAL 89 · FSU 95
Win probability
FSU 56%
1st half
Spread
FSU -1.0
FSU -14.0
Total
72.9
78 points
Projected score
CAL 35.9 · FSU 36.9
CAL 32 · FSU 46
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenFSU -2.5
1 → CAL
CloseFSU -1.5
1 pt toward CAL
Total
Open153.5
▲ 1
Close154.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
CAL +114 · FSU -135
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened FSU -2.5 · closed FSU -1.5 · moved 1 toward CALmodel FSU -2
model FSU -2
Opened 153.5 · closed 154.5 · moved 1 upmodel 156
model 156
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAL | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% |
| FSU | 8-2 80% | 7-3 70% | 7-3 70% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
CAL 1–1 FSUSeries tied · 2 games since 2021-22 · CAL 2-0 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2025-26 | CAL 61 @ FSU 63 | FSU -3.5 | CAL W |
| Jan 22, 2024-25 | FSU 68 @ CAL 77 | CAL +3.5 | CAL W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
California
30 games played
Straight up
20-10
67% wins
Against the spread
16-14
53% covers · avg +1.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
12-18
40% overs · avg −0.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs CSUB | W 87-60 | -15.5 | W +11.5 | 147.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 6 | vs WRST | W 77-67 | -14.5 | L −4.5 | 148.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 10 | vs CSUF | W 93-65 | -22.5 | W +5.5 | 162.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 13 | @ KSU | L 96-99 | +6.5 | W +3.5 | 164.5 | O 195 |
| Nov 18 | vs PRES | W 67-57 | -10.5 | L −0.5 | 124.5 | U 124 |
| Nov 21 | vs SAC | W 91-67 | -21.5 | W +2.5 | 154.5 | O 158 |
| Nov 25 | vs UCLA | W 80-72 | +7.5 | W +15.5 | 143.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 2 | vs UTAH | W 79-72 | -7.5 | L −0.5 | 152.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 6 | vs PAC | W 67-61 | -7.5 | L −1.5 | 144.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 13 | vs NWST | W 79-70 | -19.5 | L −10.5 | 145.5 | O 149 |
| Dec 19 | vs MORG | W 97-50 | -26.5 | W +20.5 | 151.5 | U 147 |
| Dec 21 | vs COLU | W 74-56 | -8.5 | W +9.5 | 153.5 | U 130 |
| Dec 30 | vs LOU | L 70-90 | +7.5 | L −12.5 | 159.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 2 | vs ND | W 72-71 | -3.5 | L −2.5 | 138.5 | O 143 |
| Jan 7 | @ UVA | L 60-84 | +14.5 | L −9.5 | 148.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 10 | @ VT | L 75-78 | +5.5 | W +2.5 | 148.5 | O 153 |
| Jan 14 | vs DUKE | L 56-71 | +14.5 | L −0.5 | 149.5 | U 127 |
| Jan 17 | vs UNC | W 84-78 | +7.5 | W +13.5 | 151.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 24 | @ STAN | W 78-66 | +4.5 | W +16.5 | 146.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 28 | @FSU | L 61-63 | +3.5 | W +1.5 | 157.5 | U 124 |
| Jan 31 | @ MIA | W 86-85 | +11.5 | W +12.5 | 148.5 | O 171 |
| Feb 4 | vs GT | W 90-85 | -7.5 | L −2.5 | 152.5 | O 175 |
| Feb 7 | vs CLEM | L 55-77 | +4.5 | L −17.5 | 139.5 | U 132 |
| Feb 11 | @ SYR | L 100-107 | +6.5 | L −0.5 | 148.5 | O 207 |
| Feb 14 | @ BC | W 86-75 | -3.5 | W +7.5 | 144.5 | O 161 |
| Feb 21 | vsSTAN | W 72-66 | -1.5 | W +4.5 | 149.5 | U 138 |
| Feb 25 | vs SMU | W 73-69 | +4.5 | W +8.5 | 163.5 | U 142 |
| Feb 28 | vs PITT | L 56-72 | -6.5 | L −22.5 | 143.5 | U 128 |
| Mar 4 | @GT | W 76-65 | -2.5 | W +8.5 | 154.5 | U 141 |
| Mar 7 | @ WAKE | L 73-80 | +5.5 | L −1.5 | 154.5 | U 153 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCSUB
CSUBW 87-60
+11.5
6
vsWRST
WRSTW 77-67
−4.5
10
vsCSUF
CSUFW 93-65
+5.5
13
@KSU
KSUL 96-99
+3.5
18
vsPRES
PRESW 67-57
−0.5
21
vsSAC
SACW 91-67
+2.5
25
vsUCLA
UCLAW 80-72
+15.5
2
vsUTAH
UTAHW 79-72
−0.5
6
vsPAC
PACW 67-61
−1.5
13
vsNWST
NWSTW 79-70
−10.5
19
vsMORG
MORGW 97-50
+20.5
21
vsCOLU
COLUW 74-56
+9.5
30
vsLOU
LOUL 70-90
−12.5
2
vsND
NDW 72-71
−2.5
7
@UVA
UVAL 60-84
−9.5
10
@VT
VTL 75-78
+2.5
14
vsDUKE
DUKEL 56-71
−0.5
17
vsUNC
UNCW 84-78
+13.5
24
@STAN
STANW 78-66
+16.5
28
@FSU
FSUL 61-63
+1.5
31
@MIA
MIAW 86-85
+12.5
4
vsGT
GTW 90-85
−2.5
7
vsCLEM
CLEML 55-77
−17.5
11
@SYR
SYRL 100-107
−0.5
14
@BC
BCW 86-75
+7.5
21
vsSTAN
STANW 72-66
+4.5
25
vsSMU
SMUW 73-69
+8.5
28
vsPITT
PITTL 56-72
−22.5
4
@GT
GTW 76-65
+8.5
7
@WAKE
WAKEL 73-80
−1.5
covered 16didn’t cover 14avg +1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCSUB
CSUBW 87-60
−0.5
6
vsWRST
WRSTW 77-67
−4.5
10
vsCSUF
CSUFW 93-65
−4.5
13
@KSU
KSUL 96-99
+30.5
18
vsPRES
PRESW 67-57
−0.5
21
vsSAC
SACW 91-67
+3.5
25
vsUCLA
UCLAW 80-72
+8.5
2
vsUTAH
UTAHW 79-72
−1.5
6
vsPAC
PACW 67-61
−16.5
13
vsNWST
NWSTW 79-70
+3.5
19
vsMORG
MORGW 97-50
−4.5
21
vsCOLU
COLUW 74-56
−23.5
30
vsLOU
LOUL 70-90
+0.5
2
vsND
NDW 72-71
+4.5
7
@UVA
UVAL 60-84
−4.5
10
@VT
VTL 75-78
+4.5
14
vsDUKE
DUKEL 56-71
−22.5
17
vsUNC
UNCW 84-78
+10.5
24
@STAN
STANW 78-66
−2.5
28
@FSU
FSUL 61-63
−33.5
31
@MIA
MIAW 86-85
+22.5
4
vsGT
GTW 90-85
+22.5
7
vsCLEM
CLEML 55-77
−7.5
11
@SYR
SYRL 100-107
+58.5
14
@BC
BCW 86-75
+16.5
21
vsSTAN
STANW 72-66
−11.5
25
vsSMU
SMUW 73-69
−21.5
28
vsPITT
PITTL 56-72
−15.5
4
@GT
GTW 76-65
−13.5
7
@WAKE
WAKEL 73-80
−1.5
over 12under 18avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Florida St
31 games played
Straight up
17-14
55% wins
Against the spread
18-13
58% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
15-16
48% overs · avg −3.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs ALCN | W 108-76 | -27.5 | W +4.5 | 156.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 7 | vs ALST | W 101-64 | -24.5 | W +12.5 | 166.5 | U 165 |
| Nov 11 | @ FLA | L 76-78 | +17.5 | W +15.5 | 180.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 18 | vs UTM | W 87-73 | -19.5 | L −5.5 | 165.5 | U 160 |
| Nov 21 | vs GASO | W 98-72 | -18.5 | W +7.5 | 175.5 | U 170 |
| Nov 25 | vsCSUB | W 89-59 | -26.5 | W +3.5 | 159.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 28 | vs TA&M | L 59-95 | -1.5 | L −37.5 | 174.5 | U 154 |
| Dec 2 | vs UGA | L 73-107 | -1.5 | L −35.5 | 176.5 | O 180 |
| Dec 6 | vs HOU | L 67-82 | +12.5 | L −2.5 | 148.5 | O 149 |
| Dec 13 | vs MASS | L 95-103 | -12.5 | L −20.5 | 165.5 | O 198 |
| Dec 16 | @ DAY | L 69-97 | +6.5 | L −21.5 | 162.5 | O 166 |
| Dec 19 | vs MVSU | W 96-49 | -40.5 | W +6.5 | 164.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 22 | vs JAX | W 87-63 | -23.5 | W +0.5 | 159.5 | U 150 |
| Dec 30 | @UNC | L 66-79 | +12.5 | L −0.5 | 166.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 3 | vsDUKE | L 87-91 | +16.5 | W +12.5 | 163.5 | O 178 |
| Jan 10 | vs NCSU | L 69-113 | +4.5 | L −39.5 | 160.5 | O 182 |
| Jan 13 | @SYR | L 86-94 | +4.5 | L −3.5 | 160.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 17 | vsWAKE | L 68-69 | +1.5 | W +0.5 | 168.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 20 | @MIA | W 65-63 | +10.5 | W +12.5 | 163.5 | U 128 |
| Jan 24 | @SMU | L 80-83 | +11.5 | W +8.5 | 163.5 | U 163 |
| Jan 28 | vsCAL | W 63-61 | -3.5 | L −1.5 | 157.5 | U 124 |
| Jan 31 | vsSTAN | W 88-80 | -3.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | O 168 |
| Feb 7 | @ND | W 82-79 | +1.5 | W +4.5 | 154.5 | O 161 |
| Feb 10 | vsUVA | L 58-61 | +8.5 | W +5.5 | 155.5 | U 119 |
| Feb 14 | @VT | W 92-69 | +4.5 | W +27.5 | 156.5 | O 161 |
| Feb 17 | vsBC | W 80-72 | -11.5 | L −3.5 | 148.5 | O 152 |
| Feb 21 | @CLEM | W 70-65 | +8.5 | W +13.5 | 145.5 | U 135 |
| Feb 24 | vsMIA | L 73-83 | +2.5 | L −7.5 | 152.5 | O 156 |
| Feb 28 | @GT | W 80-71 | -5.5 | W +3.5 | 158.5 | U 151 |
| Mar 4 | @PITT | W 75-74 | -1.5 | L −0.5 | 144.5 | O 149 |
| Mar 7 | vsSMU | W 91-78 | -1.5 | W +11.5 | 158.5 | O 169 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsALCN
ALCNW 108-76
+4.5
7
vsALST
ALSTW 101-64
+12.5
11
@FLA
FLAL 76-78
+15.5
18
vsUTM
UTMW 87-73
−5.5
21
vsGASO
GASOW 98-72
+7.5
25
vsCSUB
CSUBW 89-59
+3.5
28
vsTA&M
TA&ML 59-95
−37.5
2
vsUGA
UGAL 73-107
−35.5
6
vsHOU
HOUL 67-82
−2.5
13
vsMASS
MASSL 95-103
−20.5
16
@DAY
DAYL 69-97
−21.5
19
vsMVSU
MVSUW 96-49
+6.5
22
vsJAX
JAXW 87-63
+0.5
30
@UNC
UNCL 66-79
−0.5
3
vsDUKE
DUKEL 87-91
+12.5
10
vsNCSU
NCSUL 69-113
−39.5
13
@SYR
SYRL 86-94
−3.5
17
vsWAKE
WAKEL 68-69
+0.5
20
@MIA
MIAW 65-63
+12.5
24
@SMU
SMUL 80-83
+8.5
28
vsCAL
CALW 63-61
−1.5
31
vsSTAN
STANW 88-80
+4.5
7
@ND
NDW 82-79
+4.5
10
vsUVA
UVAL 58-61
+5.5
14
@VT
VTW 92-69
+27.5
17
vsBC
BCW 80-72
−3.5
21
@CLEM
CLEMW 70-65
+13.5
24
vsMIA
MIAL 73-83
−7.5
28
@GT
GTW 80-71
+3.5
4
@PITT
PITTW 75-74
−0.5
7
vsSMU
SMUW 91-78
+11.5
covered 18didn’t cover 13avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsALCN
ALCNW 108-76
+27.5
7
vsALST
ALSTW 101-64
−1.5
11
@FLA
FLAL 76-78
−26.5
18
vsUTM
UTMW 87-73
−5.5
21
vsGASO
GASOW 98-72
−5.5
25
vsCSUB
CSUBW 89-59
−11.5
28
vsTA&M
TA&ML 59-95
−20.5
2
vsUGA
UGAL 73-107
+3.5
6
vsHOU
HOUL 67-82
+0.5
13
vsMASS
MASSL 95-103
+32.5
16
@DAY
DAYL 69-97
+3.5
19
vsMVSU
MVSUW 96-49
−19.5
22
vsJAX
JAXW 87-63
−9.5
30
@UNC
UNCL 66-79
−21.5
3
vsDUKE
DUKEL 87-91
+14.5
10
vsNCSU
NCSUL 69-113
+21.5
13
@SYR
SYRL 86-94
+19.5
17
vsWAKE
WAKEL 68-69
−31.5
20
@MIA
MIAW 65-63
−35.5
24
@SMU
SMUL 80-83
−0.5
28
vsCAL
CALW 63-61
−33.5
31
vsSTAN
STANW 88-80
+15.5
7
@ND
NDW 82-79
+6.5
10
vsUVA
UVAL 58-61
−36.5
14
@VT
VTW 92-69
+4.5
17
vsBC
BCW 80-72
+3.5
21
@CLEM
CLEMW 70-65
−10.5
24
vsMIA
MIAL 73-83
+3.5
28
@GT
GTW 80-71
−7.5
4
@PITT
PITTW 75-74
+4.5
7
vsSMU
SMUW 91-78
+10.5
over 15under 16avg −3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
California
20-10 overall · 9-9 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Wake Forest73–80
- W@ Georgia Tech76–65
- Lvs Pitt56–72
- Wvs SMU73–69
- Wvs Stanford72–66
4 days since their last game.
Florida St
17-14 overall · 10-8 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs SMU91–78
- W@ Pitt75–74
- W@ Georgia Tech80–71
- Lvs Miami73–83
- W@ Clemson70–65
4 days since their last game.