Athletics-Recreation Center · at Valparaiso · Conference game
Closing line
VAL -4.5✓ INST covered by 3.5
VAL -4.5✓ INST covered by 3.5Closing total145.5Over by 5.5
 INST | This season | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| 8-16 | Record | 12-13 |
| 15-9 | ATS | 16-9 |
| 10-14 | O/U | 13-12 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: INST 73–76 VAL · ✓ VAL (62%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| INST | 43 | 32 | 75 |
| VAL | 49 | 27 | 76 |
1st half: INST 43, VAL 49 (VAL by 6). The model had VAL by 2.0 and a total of 69.6 (actual 92).
Team stats
| INST | VAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 31-57 54% | Field goals | 29-56 52% |
| 4-15 27% | 3-pointers | 8-19 42% |
| 9-13 69% | Free throws | 10-21 48% |
| 28 9 off | Rebounds | 32 15 off |
| 17 | Assists | 16 |
| 2 | Steals | 2 |
| 3 | Blocks | 4 |
| 8 | Turnovers | 9 |
| 16 | Fouls | 14 |
| 54 | Points in paint | 36 |
| 5 | Fast-break points | 10 |
Players
| INST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruno Alocen G | 36 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 4-8 | 1-3 |
| Xavier Hall G | 34 | 14 | 1 | 5 | 5-9 | 1-2 |
| Ian Scott F | 32 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 6-10 | 0-1 |
| Sterling Young G | 29 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 6-11 | 1-4 |
| Markus Harding C | 23 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 5-7 | 1-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Enel St. Bernard F | 23 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 2-5 | 0-0 |
| Camp Wagner G | 15 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2-5 | 0-3 |
| Cooper Bean G | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Hunter Harding C | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Martin Kaupanger, Zyair Greene, Derek Vorst, Sivert Waerstad Nordheim, Jo Van Buggenhout, Caden Huttenlocker, Jayan Walker
| VAL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JT Pettigrew F | 34 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 5-12 | 0-1 |
| Brody Whitaker G | 30 | 21 | 3 | 4 | 8-14 | 5-8 |
| Owen Dease F | 29 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 4-9 | 1-4 |
| Rakim Chaney G | 28 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Shon Tupuola F | 26 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 3-6 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Justus McNair G | 19 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 5-7 | 2-3 |
| Carter Hopoi F | 14 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Kyonte Thomas G | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Sader Servilus G | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Isaiah Barnes G | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Mark Brown Jr. G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Tucker Tornatta, Kobe Walker, Joe Vick, Camden Webster, Nick Lombardi, Jayden Watson
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketVAL -4.5
ModelVAL -3.6
Model edgeINST +0.9
W INST covered
Total
Market145.5
Model148.8
Model edgeOver 3.3
W Over
Projected score
INST 72.6 · VAL 76.2
INST 75 · VAL 76
Win probability
VAL 62%
1st half
Spread
VAL -2.0
VAL -6.0
Total
69.6
92 points
Projected score
INST 33.8 · VAL 35.8
INST 43 · VAL 49
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenVAL -4.5
no move
CloseVAL -4.5
No change since the open
Total
Open141.5
▲ 4
Close145.5
Up 4 since the open
Moneyline
INST +180 · VAL -218
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened VAL -4.5 · unchangedmodel VAL -3.5
model VAL -3.5
Opened 141.5 · closed 145.5 · moved 4 upmodel 149
model 149
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| INST | 2-8 20% | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% |
| VAL | 5-5 50% | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
INST 5–4 VALINST leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · INST 5-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2025-26 | VAL 76 @ INST 72 | INST -2.5 | VAL W |
| Feb 5, 2024-25 | VAL 62 @ INST 80 | INST -4.5 | INST W |
| Jan 8, 2024-25 | INST 95 @ VAL 98 | VAL -1.5 | VAL W |
| Feb 21, 2023-24 | INST 83 @ VAL 64 | VAL +14.5 | INST W |
| Feb 7, 2023-24 | VAL 61 @ INST 101 | INST -20.5 | INST W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Indiana St
24 games played
Straight up
8-16
33% wins
Against the spread
15-9
63% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-14
42% overs · avg −3.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ CLT | L 76-92 | +4.5 | L −11.5 | 152.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 10 | @ SIUE | W 64-55 | +2.5 | W +11.5 | 159.5 | U 119 |
| Nov 14 | @ DUKE | L 62-100 | +37.5 | L −0.5 | 163.5 | U 162 |
| Nov 19 | vs LT | W 60-51 | -3.5 | W +5.5 | 147.5 | U 111 |
| Nov 22 | vs BALL | W 70-52 | -7.5 | W +10.5 | 154.5 | U 122 |
| Nov 26 | @LT | L 73-75 | +2.5 | W +0.5 | 141.5 | O 148 |
| Nov 28 | vs ALCN | L 74-81 | -12.5 | L −19.5 | 152.5 | O 155 |
| Dec 7 | vs USI | W 77-55 | -11.5 | W +10.5 | 158.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 14 | @ MILW | W 70-68 | +2.5 | W +4.5 | 159.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 18 | vs BRAD | L 99-108 | +5.5 | L −3.5 | 150.5 | O 207 |
| Dec 21 | @ ILST | L 65-85 | +13.5 | L −6.5 | 152.5 | U 150 |
| Dec 29 | vs BEL | W 81-80 | +7.5 | W +8.5 | 159.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 1 | @ UNI | L 66-75 | +10.5 | W +1.5 | 135.5 | O 141 |
| Jan 4 | @ DRKE | L 72-74 | +6.5 | W +4.5 | 149.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 10 | vs EVAN | L 69-72 | -7.5 | L −10.5 | 145.5 | U 141 |
| Jan 14 | vsILST | W 94-89 | +6.5 | W +11.5 | 148.5 | O 183 |
| Jan 17 | @ MUR | L 81-85 | +11.5 | W +7.5 | 167.5 | U 166 |
| Jan 21 | @BRAD | L 68-75 | +8.5 | W +1.5 | 155.5 | U 143 |
| Jan 24 | vsDRKE | L 62-76 | -3.5 | L −17.5 | 151.5 | U 138 |
| Jan 27 | @ UIC | L 74-76 | +5.5 | W +3.5 | 147.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 31 | vsVAL | L 72-76 | -2.5 | L −6.5 | 145.5 | O 148 |
| Feb 3 | @EVAN | W 84-63 | -1.5 | W +19.5 | 145.5 | O 147 |
| Feb 9 | vs SIU | L 65-80 | +1.5 | L −13.5 | 146.5 | U 145 |
| Feb 12 | vsMUR | L 72-74 | +3.5 | W +1.5 | 163.5 | U 146 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@CLT
CLTL 76-92
−11.5
10
@SIUE
SIUEW 64-55
+11.5
14
@DUKE
DUKEL 62-100
−0.5
19
vsLT
LTW 60-51
+5.5
22
vsBALL
BALLW 70-52
+10.5
26
@LT
LTL 73-75
+0.5
28
vsALCN
ALCNL 74-81
−19.5
7
vsUSI
USIW 77-55
+10.5
14
@MILW
MILWW 70-68
+4.5
18
vsBRAD
BRADL 99-108
−3.5
21
@ILST
ILSTL 65-85
−6.5
29
vsBEL
BELW 81-80
+8.5
1
@UNI
UNIL 66-75
+1.5
4
@DRKE
DRKEL 72-74
+4.5
10
vsEVAN
EVANL 69-72
−10.5
14
vsILST
ILSTW 94-89
+11.5
17
@MUR
MURL 81-85
+7.5
21
@BRAD
BRADL 68-75
+1.5
24
vsDRKE
DRKEL 62-76
−17.5
27
@UIC
UICL 74-76
+3.5
31
vsVAL
VALL 72-76
−6.5
3
@EVAN
EVANW 84-63
+19.5
9
vsSIU
SIUL 65-80
−13.5
12
vsMUR
MURL 72-74
+1.5
covered 15didn’t cover 9avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@CLT
CLTL 76-92
+15.5
10
@SIUE
SIUEW 64-55
−40.5
14
@DUKE
DUKEL 62-100
−1.5
19
vsLT
LTW 60-51
−36.5
22
vsBALL
BALLW 70-52
−32.5
26
@LT
LTL 73-75
+6.5
28
vsALCN
ALCNL 74-81
+2.5
7
vsUSI
USIW 77-55
−26.5
14
@MILW
MILWW 70-68
−21.5
18
vsBRAD
BRADL 99-108
+56.5
21
@ILST
ILSTL 65-85
−2.5
29
vsBEL
BELW 81-80
+1.5
1
@UNI
UNIL 66-75
+5.5
4
@DRKE
DRKEL 72-74
−3.5
10
vsEVAN
EVANL 69-72
−4.5
14
vsILST
ILSTW 94-89
+34.5
17
@MUR
MURL 81-85
−1.5
21
@BRAD
BRADL 68-75
−12.5
24
vsDRKE
DRKEL 62-76
−13.5
27
@UIC
UICL 74-76
+2.5
31
vsVAL
VALL 72-76
+2.5
3
@EVAN
EVANW 84-63
+1.5
9
vsSIU
SIUL 65-80
−1.5
12
vsMUR
MURL 72-74
−17.5
over 10under 14avg −3.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Valparaiso
25 games played
Straight up
12-13
48% wins
Against the spread
16-9
64% covers · avg +3.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-12
52% overs · avg −3.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs EIU | W 66-63 | -5.5 | L −2.5 | 144.5 | U 129 |
| Nov 7 | @ UK | L 59-107 | +32.5 | L −15.5 | 157.5 | O 166 |
| Nov 12 | vs NICH | W 68-63 | -2.5 | W +2.5 | 144.5 | U 131 |
| Nov 16 | vs BRY | W 68-50 | -6.5 | W +11.5 | 143.5 | U 118 |
| Nov 19 | @ CLE | W 90-75 | +2.5 | W +17.5 | 158.5 | O 165 |
| Nov 26 | vsUSI | L 56-64 | -9.5 | L −17.5 | 150.5 | U 120 |
| Nov 29 | vs WMU | W 84-55 | -4.5 | W +24.5 | 146.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 2 | @ MARQ | L 72-75 | +17.5 | W +14.5 | 146.5 | O 147 |
| Dec 13 | vs UNCW | L 70-73 | +4.5 | W +1.5 | 136.5 | O 143 |
| Dec 16 | @ NU | L 70-86 | +14.5 | L −1.5 | 145.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 21 | vsMUR | L 79-85 | +5.5 | L −0.5 | 155.5 | O 164 |
| Dec 29 | @UNI | L 48-58 | +8.5 | L −1.5 | 131.5 | U 106 |
| Jan 1 | @SIU | L 70-75 | +7.5 | W +2.5 | 145.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 4 | vsUIC | W 66-59 | -2.5 | W +4.5 | 144.5 | U 125 |
| Jan 7 | vsILST | W 77-71 | +6.5 | W +12.5 | 138.5 | O 148 |
| Jan 10 | @MUR | L 79-92 | +12.5 | L −0.5 | 152.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 13 | @BEL | L 74-78 | +11.5 | W +7.5 | 146.5 | O 152 |
| Jan 17 | vsUNI | W 54-44 | +1.5 | W +11.5 | 130.5 | U 98 |
| Jan 21 | vsSIU | W 69-63 | -1.5 | W +4.5 | 142.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 28 | vsBEL | L 77-78 | +5.5 | W +4.5 | 145.5 | O 155 |
| Jan 31 | @INST | W 76-72 | +2.5 | W +6.5 | 145.5 | O 148 |
| Feb 3 | @BRAD | L 65-72 | +7.5 | W +0.5 | 144.5 | U 137 |
| Feb 6 | vsEVAN | W 70-63 | -8.5 | L −1.5 | 136.5 | U 133 |
| Feb 9 | @DRKE | W 81-76 | +3.5 | W +8.5 | 144.5 | O 157 |
| Feb 12 | @ILST | L 64-86 | +8.5 | L −13.5 | 138.5 | O 150 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsEIU
EIUW 66-63
−2.5
7
@UK
UKL 59-107
−15.5
12
vsNICH
NICHW 68-63
+2.5
16
vsBRY
BRYW 68-50
+11.5
19
@CLE
CLEW 90-75
+17.5
26
vsUSI
USIL 56-64
−17.5
29
vsWMU
WMUW 84-55
+24.5
2
@MARQ
MARQL 72-75
+14.5
13
vsUNCW
UNCWL 70-73
+1.5
16
@NU
NUL 70-86
−1.5
21
vsMUR
MURL 79-85
−0.5
29
@UNI
UNIL 48-58
−1.5
1
@SIU
SIUL 70-75
+2.5
4
vsUIC
UICW 66-59
+4.5
7
vsILST
ILSTW 77-71
+12.5
10
@MUR
MURL 79-92
−0.5
13
@BEL
BELL 74-78
+7.5
17
vsUNI
UNIW 54-44
+11.5
21
vsSIU
SIUW 69-63
+4.5
28
vsBEL
BELL 77-78
+4.5
31
@INST
INSTW 76-72
+6.5
3
@BRAD
BRADL 65-72
+0.5
6
vsEVAN
EVANW 70-63
−1.5
9
@DRKE
DRKEW 81-76
+8.5
12
@ILST
ILSTL 64-86
−13.5
covered 16didn’t cover 9avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsEIU
EIUW 66-63
−15.5
7
@UK
UKL 59-107
+8.5
12
vsNICH
NICHW 68-63
−13.5
16
vsBRY
BRYW 68-50
−25.5
19
@CLE
CLEW 90-75
+6.5
26
vsUSI
USIL 56-64
−30.5
29
vsWMU
WMUW 84-55
−7.5
2
@MARQ
MARQL 72-75
+0.5
13
vsUNCW
UNCWL 70-73
+6.5
16
@NU
NUL 70-86
+10.5
21
vsMUR
MURL 79-85
+8.5
29
@UNI
UNIL 48-58
−25.5
1
@SIU
SIUL 70-75
−0.5
4
vsUIC
UICW 66-59
−19.5
7
vsILST
ILSTW 77-71
+9.5
10
@MUR
MURL 79-92
+18.5
13
@BEL
BELL 74-78
+5.5
17
vsUNI
UNIW 54-44
−32.5
21
vsSIU
SIUW 69-63
−10.5
28
vsBEL
BELL 77-78
+9.5
31
@INST
INSTW 76-72
+2.5
3
@BRAD
BRADL 65-72
−7.5
6
vsEVAN
EVANW 70-63
−3.5
9
@DRKE
DRKEW 81-76
+12.5
12
@ILST
ILSTL 64-86
+11.5
over 13under 12avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Indiana St
8-16 overall · 3-12 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Murray St72–74
- Lvs S Illinois65–80
- W@ Evansville84–63
- Lvs Valparaiso72–76
- L@ UIC74–76
3 days since their last game.
Valparaiso
12-13 overall · 7-8 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Illinois St64–86
- W@ Drake81–76
- Wvs Evansville70–63
- L@ Bradley65–72
- W@ Indiana St76–72
3 days since their last game.