Mackey Arena · at Purdue · Conference game
Closing line
MICH -2.5✓ MICH covered by 8.5
MICH -2.5✓ MICH covered by 8.5Closing total156.5Over by 14.5
| MICH | This season | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| 24-1 | Record | 21-4 |
| 13-12 | ATS | 12-13 |
| 10-15 | O/U | 10-15 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MICH 80–78 PUR · ✓ MICH (59%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MICH | 48 | 43 | 91 |
| PUR | 32 | 48 | 80 |
1st half: MICH 48, PUR 32 (MICH by 16). The model had MICH by 1.7 and a total of 74.0 (actual 80).
Team stats
| MICH | PUR | |
|---|---|---|
| 30-57 53% | Field goals | 27-69 39% |
| 13-23 57% | 3-pointers | 8-26 31% |
| 18-23 78% | Free throws | 18-20 90% |
| 39 13 off | Rebounds | 31 14 off |
| 24 | Assists | 12 |
| 3 | Steals | 10 |
| 5 | Blocks | 3 |
| 14 | Turnovers | 6 |
| 17 | Fouls | 17 |
| 28 | Points in paint | 32 |
| 10 | Fast-break points | 9 |
Players
| MICH | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yaxel Lendeborg F | 36 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 5-12 | 3-7 |
| Elliot Cadeau G | 34 | 17 | 4 | 7 | 6-12 | 3-5 |
| Morez Johnson Jr. F | 32 | 12 | 11 | 2 | 3-7 | 0-1 |
| Aday Mara C | 18 | 10 | 11 | 3 | 4-6 | 0-0 |
| Nimari Burnett G | 17 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2-4 | 1-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Trey McKenney G | 21 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 4-7 | 3-4 |
| L.J. Cason G | 18 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 3-3 | 1-1 |
| Roddy Gayle Jr. G | 17 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2-5 | 1-1 |
| Will Tschetter F | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
Did not play: Harrison Hochberg, Winters Grady, Charlie May, Howard Eisley Jr., Oscar Goodman, Ricky Liburd, Malick Kordel
| PUR | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Kaufman-Renn F | 36 | 27 | 12 | 0 | 12-26 | 0-2 |
| Braden Smith G | 35 | 20 | 1 | 6 | 4-13 | 2-6 |
| Fletcher Loyer G | 32 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 3-6 | 2-5 |
| C.J. Cox G | 22 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Oscar Cluff C | 21 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Gicarri Harris G | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Omer Mayer G | 15 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 3-6 | 2-4 |
| Daniel Jacobsen C | 14 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| Jack Benter G | 9 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
Did not play: Antione West Jr, Jace Rayl, Sam King, Raleigh Burgess, Liam Murphy, Aaron Fine, Jack Lusk
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketMICH -2.5
ModelMICH -2.6
Model edgeMICH +0.1
W MICH covered
Total
Market156.5
Model158.2
Model edgeOver 1.7
W Over
Projected score
MICH 80.4 · PUR 77.8
MICH 91 · PUR 80
Win probability
MICH 59%
1st half
Spread
MICH -1.7
MICH -16.0
Total
74.0
80 points
Projected score
MICH 37.8 · PUR 36.1
MICH 48 · PUR 32
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMICH -2.5
no move
CloseMICH -2.5
No change since the open
Total
Open153.5
▲ 3
Close156.5
Up 3 since the open
Moneyline
MICH -148 · PUR +124
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MICH -2.5 · unchangedmodel MICH -2.5 matches the line
model MICH -2.5 = line ✓
Opened 153.5 · closed 156.5 · moved 3 upmodel 158
model 158
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MICH | 10-0 100% | 4-6 40% | 3-7 30% |
| PUR | 7-3 70% | 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22
MICH 3–5 PURPUR leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · MICH has won the last 2 meetings · MICH 5-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2024-25 | PUR 68 vs MICH 86 | MICH +2.5 | MICH W |
| Feb 11, 2024-25 | PUR 73 @ MICH 75 | MICH -2.5 | PUR W |
| Jan 24, 2024-25 | MICH 64 @ PUR 91 | PUR -4.5 | PUR W |
| Feb 25, 2023-24 | PUR 84 @ MICH 76 | MICH +13.5 | MICH W |
| Jan 23, 2023-24 | MICH 67 @ PUR 99 | PUR -17.5 | PUR W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Michigan
25 games played
Straight up
24-1
96% wins
Against the spread
13-12
52% covers · avg +5.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-15
40% overs · avg −1.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs OAK | W 121-78 | -24.5 | W +18.5 | 156.5 | O 199 |
| Nov 11 | vs WAKE | W 85-84 | -15.5 | L −14.5 | 168.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 14 | @ TCU | W 67-63 | -7.5 | L −3.5 | 164.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 19 | vs MTSU | W 86-61 | -27.5 | L −2.5 | 159.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 24 | vs SDSU | W 94-54 | -6.5 | W +33.5 | 148.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 25 | vs AUB | W 102-72 | -4.5 | W +25.5 | 163.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 26 | vs GONZ | W 101-61 | +3.5 | W +43.5 | 165.5 | U 162 |
| Dec 6 | vs RUTG | W 101-60 | -25.5 | W +15.5 | 153.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 9 | vs VILL | W 89-61 | -17.5 | W +10.5 | 156.5 | U 150 |
| Dec 13 | @ MD | W 101-83 | -19.5 | L −1.5 | 163.5 | O 184 |
| Dec 21 | vs LAS | W 102-50 | -40.5 | W +11.5 | 155.5 | U 152 |
| Dec 29 | vs MCN | W 112-71 | -24.5 | W +16.5 | 161.5 | O 183 |
| Jan 2 | vs USC | W 96-66 | -22.5 | W +7.5 | 173.5 | U 162 |
| Jan 6 | @ PSU | W 74-72 | -24.5 | L −22.5 | 169.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 10 | vs WIS | L 88-91 | -19.5 | L −22.5 | 169.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 14 | @ WASH | W 82-72 | -12.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | U 154 |
| Jan 17 | @ ORE | W 81-71 | -18.5 | L −8.5 | 157.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 20 | vs IU | W 86-72 | -15.5 | L −1.5 | 163.5 | U 158 |
| Jan 23 | vs OSU | W 74-62 | -16.5 | L −4.5 | 165.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 27 | vs NEB | W 75-72 | -11.5 | L −8.5 | 157.5 | U 147 |
| Jan 30 | @ MSU | W 83-71 | -2.5 | W +9.5 | 149.5 | O 154 |
| Feb 5 | vsPSU | W 110-69 | -26.5 | W +14.5 | 161.5 | O 179 |
| Feb 8 | @OSU | W 82-61 | -8.5 | W +12.5 | 161.5 | U 143 |
| Feb 11 | @ NU | W 87-75 | -15.5 | L −3.5 | 153.5 | O 162 |
| Feb 14 | vs UCLA | W 86-56 | -15.5 | W +14.5 | 156.5 | U 142 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsOAK
OAKW 121-78
+18.5
11
vsWAKE
WAKEW 85-84
−14.5
14
@TCU
TCUW 67-63
−3.5
19
vsMTSU
MTSUW 86-61
−2.5
24
vsSDSU
SDSUW 94-54
+33.5
25
vsAUB
AUBW 102-72
+25.5
26
vsGONZ
GONZW 101-61
+43.5
6
vsRUTG
RUTGW 101-60
+15.5
9
vsVILL
VILLW 89-61
+10.5
13
@MD
MDW 101-83
−1.5
21
vsLAS
LASW 102-50
+11.5
29
vsMCN
MCNW 112-71
+16.5
2
vsUSC
USCW 96-66
+7.5
6
@PSU
PSUW 74-72
−22.5
10
vsWIS
WISL 88-91
−22.5
14
@WASH
WASHW 82-72
−2.5
17
@ORE
OREW 81-71
−8.5
20
vsIU
IUW 86-72
−1.5
23
vsOSU
OSUW 74-62
−4.5
27
vsNEB
NEBW 75-72
−8.5
30
@MSU
MSUW 83-71
+9.5
5
vsPSU
PSUW 110-69
+14.5
8
@OSU
OSUW 82-61
+12.5
11
@NU
NUW 87-75
−3.5
14
vsUCLA
UCLAW 86-56
+14.5
covered 13didn’t cover 12avg +5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsOAK
OAKW 121-78
+42.5
11
vsWAKE
WAKEW 85-84
+0.5
14
@TCU
TCUW 67-63
−34.5
19
vsMTSU
MTSUW 86-61
−12.5
24
vsSDSU
SDSUW 94-54
−0.5
25
vsAUB
AUBW 102-72
+10.5
26
vsGONZ
GONZW 101-61
−3.5
6
vsRUTG
RUTGW 101-60
+7.5
9
vsVILL
VILLW 89-61
−6.5
13
@MD
MDW 101-83
+20.5
21
vsLAS
LASW 102-50
−3.5
29
vsMCN
MCNW 112-71
+21.5
2
vsUSC
USCW 96-66
−11.5
6
@PSU
PSUW 74-72
−23.5
10
vsWIS
WISL 88-91
+9.5
14
@WASH
WASHW 82-72
−11.5
17
@ORE
OREW 81-71
−5.5
20
vsIU
IUW 86-72
−5.5
23
vsOSU
OSUW 74-62
−29.5
27
vsNEB
NEBW 75-72
−10.5
30
@MSU
MSUW 83-71
+4.5
5
vsPSU
PSUW 110-69
+17.5
8
@OSU
OSUW 82-61
−18.5
11
@NU
NUW 87-75
+8.5
14
vsUCLA
UCLAW 86-56
−14.5
over 10under 15avg −1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Purdue
25 games played
Straight up
21-4
84% wins
Against the spread
12-13
48% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-15
40% overs · avg −0.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs EVAN | W 82-51 | -33.5 | L −2.5 | 150.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 7 | vsOAK | W 87-77 | -31.5 | L −21.5 | 158.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 13 | @ ALA | W 87-80 | +3.5 | W +10.5 | 172.5 | U 167 |
| Nov 16 | vs AKR | W 97-79 | -18.5 | L −0.5 | 163.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 20 | vs MEM | W 80-71 | -14.5 | L −5.5 | 156.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 21 | vs TTU | W 86-56 | -3.5 | W +26.5 | 153.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 28 | vs EIU | W 109-62 | -40.5 | W +6.5 | 141.5 | O 171 |
| Dec 2 | @RUTG | W 81-65 | -13.5 | W +2.5 | 146.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 6 | vs ISU | L 58-81 | -4.5 | L −27.5 | 154.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 10 | vs MINN | W 85-57 | -19.5 | W +8.5 | 143.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 13 | vs MARQ | W 79-59 | -16.5 | W +3.5 | 154.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 20 | vsAUB | W 88-60 | -7.5 | W +20.5 | 152.5 | U 148 |
| Dec 29 | vs KENT | W 101-60 | -24.5 | W +16.5 | 155.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 3 | @WIS | W 89-73 | -5.5 | W +10.5 | 153.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 7 | vsWASH | W 81-73 | -16.5 | L −8.5 | 154.5 | U 154 |
| Jan 10 | vsPSU | W 93-85 | -22.5 | L −14.5 | 152.5 | O 178 |
| Jan 14 | vs IOWA | W 79-72 | -10.5 | L −3.5 | 145.5 | O 151 |
| Jan 17 | @USC | W 69-64 | -9.5 | L −4.5 | 155.5 | U 133 |
| Jan 20 | @UCLA | L 67-69 | -5.5 | L −7.5 | 147.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 24 | vs ILL | L 82-88 | -5.5 | L −11.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
| Jan 27 | @IU | L 67-72 | -4.5 | L −9.5 | 150.5 | U 139 |
| Feb 1 | @MD | W 93-63 | -15.5 | W +14.5 | 148.5 | O 156 |
| Feb 7 | vsORE | W 68-64 | -19.5 | L −15.5 | 144.5 | U 132 |
| Feb 10 | @NEB | W 80-77 | +2.5 | W +5.5 | 146.5 | O 157 |
| Feb 14 | @IOWA | W 78-57 | -2.5 | W +18.5 | 142.5 | U 135 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsEVAN
EVANW 82-51
−2.5
7
vsOAK
OAKW 87-77
−21.5
13
@ALA
ALAW 87-80
+10.5
16
vsAKR
AKRW 97-79
−0.5
20
vsMEM
MEMW 80-71
−5.5
21
vsTTU
TTUW 86-56
+26.5
28
vsEIU
EIUW 109-62
+6.5
2
@RUTG
RUTGW 81-65
+2.5
6
vsISU
ISUL 58-81
−27.5
10
vsMINN
MINNW 85-57
+8.5
13
vsMARQ
MARQW 79-59
+3.5
20
vsAUB
AUBW 88-60
+20.5
29
vsKENT
KENTW 101-60
+16.5
3
@WIS
WISW 89-73
+10.5
7
vsWASH
WASHW 81-73
−8.5
10
vsPSU
PSUW 93-85
−14.5
14
vsIOWA
IOWAW 79-72
−3.5
17
@USC
USCW 69-64
−4.5
20
@UCLA
UCLAL 67-69
−7.5
24
vsILL
ILLL 82-88
−11.5
27
@IU
IUL 67-72
−9.5
1
@MD
MDW 93-63
+14.5
7
vsORE
OREW 68-64
−15.5
10
@NEB
NEBW 80-77
+5.5
14
@IOWA
IOWAW 78-57
+18.5
covered 12didn’t cover 13avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsEVAN
EVANW 82-51
−17.5
7
vsOAK
OAKW 87-77
+5.5
13
@ALA
ALAW 87-80
−5.5
16
vsAKR
AKRW 97-79
+12.5
20
vsMEM
MEMW 80-71
−5.5
21
vsTTU
TTUW 86-56
−11.5
28
vsEIU
EIUW 109-62
+29.5
2
@RUTG
RUTGW 81-65
−0.5
6
vsISU
ISUL 58-81
−15.5
10
vsMINN
MINNW 85-57
−1.5
13
vsMARQ
MARQW 79-59
−16.5
20
vsAUB
AUBW 88-60
−4.5
29
vsKENT
KENTW 101-60
+5.5
3
@WIS
WISW 89-73
+8.5
7
vsWASH
WASHW 81-73
−0.5
10
vsPSU
PSUW 93-85
+25.5
14
vsIOWA
IOWAW 79-72
+5.5
17
@USC
USCW 69-64
−22.5
20
@UCLA
UCLAL 67-69
−11.5
24
vsILL
ILLL 82-88
+17.5
27
@IU
IUL 67-72
−11.5
1
@MD
MDW 93-63
+7.5
7
vsORE
OREW 68-64
−12.5
10
@NEB
NEBW 80-77
+10.5
14
@IOWA
IOWAW 78-57
−7.5
over 10under 15avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Michigan
24-1 overall · 14-1 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs UCLA86–56
- W@ Northwestern87–75
- W@ Ohio State82–61
- Wvs Penn State110–69
- W@ Michigan St83–71
3 days since their last game.
Purdue
21-4 overall · 11-3 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Iowa78–57
- W@ Nebraska80–77
- Wvs Oregon68–64
- W@ Maryland93–63
- L@ Indiana67–72
3 days since their last game.