Amica Mutual Pavilion · at Providence · Conference game
Closing line
PROV -5.5✓ PROV covered by 4.5
PROV -5.5✓ PROV covered by 4.5Closing total170.5Over by 7.5
 XAV | This season | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| 13-14 | Record | 12-15 |
| 14-13 | ATS | 15-12 |
| 18-9 | O/U | 19-8 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: XAV 85–90 PROV · ✓ PROV (69%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| XAV | 34 | 50 | 84 |
| PROV | 47 | 47 | 94 |
1st half: XAV 34, PROV 47 (PROV by 13). The model had PROV by 3.3 and a total of 81.6 (actual 81).
Team stats
| XAV | PROV | |
|---|---|---|
| 34-68 50% | Field goals | 33-61 54% |
| 5-22 23% | 3-pointers | 9-18 50% |
| 11-15 73% | Free throws | 19-25 76% |
| 33 10 off | Rebounds | 34 8 off |
| 6 | Assists | 8 |
| 1 | Steals | 2 |
| 2 | Blocks | 3 |
| 5 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 14 |
| 50 | Points in paint | 44 |
| 5 | Fast-break points | 4 |
Players
| XAV | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jovan Milicevic F | 37 | 17 | 8 | 0 | 7-14 | 3-6 |
| Filip Borovicanin F | 36 | 19 | 9 | 1 | 7-14 | 1-3 |
| Malik Messina-Moore G | 36 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0-6 | 0-5 |
| Tre Carroll F | 29 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 7-12 | 0-3 |
| All Wright G | 14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-6 | 0-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Roddie Anderson G | 32 | 27 | 6 | 0 | 11-15 | 1-2 |
| Isaiah Walker G | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Anthony Robinson F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Pape N'Diaye F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Ian Sabourin, Mier Panoam, Michael Wolf, Henry Thole, Luke Naser, Gabriel Pozzato, Kason Westphal
| PROV | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylin Sellers G | 37 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 10-14 | 4-6 |
| Jamier Jones G | 36 | 19 | 7 | 1 | 6-15 | 0-2 |
| Ryan Mela G | 30 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 4-9 | 0-1 |
| Oswin Erhunmwunse F | 30 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 4-6 | 0-0 |
| Nilavan Daniels G | 23 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jason Edwards G | 31 | 24 | 2 | 3 | 7-14 | 4-7 |
| Cole Hargrove F | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Peteris Pinnis F | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jaylen Harrell, Duncan Powell, Rich Barron, Daquan Davis, Stefan Vaaks, Jack Williams, Corey Floyd Jr.
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketPROV -5.5
ModelPROV -5.8
Model edgePROV +0.3
W PROV covered
Total
Market170.5
Model174.8
Model edgeOver 4.3
W Over
Projected score
XAV 84.5 · PROV 90.3
XAV 84 · PROV 94
Win probability
PROV 69%
1st half
Spread
PROV -3.3
PROV -13.0
Total
81.6
81 points
Projected score
XAV 39.2 · PROV 42.5
XAV 34 · PROV 47
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenPROV -6.5
1 → XAV
ClosePROV -5.5
1 pt toward XAV
Total
Open175.5
▼ 5
Close170.5
Down 5 since the open
Moneyline
XAV +200 · PROV -245
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened PROV -6.5 · closed PROV -5.5 · moved 1 toward XAVmodel PROV -6
model PROV -6
Opened 175.5 · closed 170.5 · moved 5 downmodel 175
model 175
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| XAV | 3-7 30% | 6-4 60% | 8-2 80% |
| PROV | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% | 7-3 70% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
XAV 6–3 PROVXAV leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · XAV has won the last 3 meetings · XAV 4-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2025-26 | PROV 84 @ XAV 97 | XAV +1.5 | XAV W |
| Mar 8, 2024-25 | PROV 68 @ XAV 76 | XAV -11.5 | PROV W |
| Feb 12, 2024-25 | XAV 91 @ PROV 82 | PROV +2.5 | XAV W |
| Feb 21, 2023-24 | PROV 79 @ XAV 75 | XAV -4.5 | PROV W |
| Jan 13, 2023-24 | XAV 85 @ PROV 65 | PROV -2.5 | XAV W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Xavier
27 games played
Straight up
13-14
48% wins
Against the spread
14-13
52% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
18-9
67% overs · avg +4.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs MRST | W 66-62 | -12.5 | L −8.5 | 139.5 | U 128 |
| Nov 6 | vs LEM | W 74-69 | -24.5 | L −19.5 | 156.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 10 | vs SCU | L 68-87 | -3.5 | L −22.5 | 155.5 | U 155 |
| Nov 14 | @ IOWA | L 62-81 | +15.5 | L −3.5 | 143.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 18 | vs ODU | W 99-69 | -10.5 | W +19.5 | 150.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 21 | vs UGA | L 77-78 | +10.5 | W +9.5 | 165.5 | U 155 |
| Nov 23 | vs WVU | W 78-68 | +5.5 | W +15.5 | 140.5 | O 146 |
| Nov 28 | vs AMCC | W 88-67 | -13.5 | W +7.5 | 146.5 | O 155 |
| Dec 1 | vs SFPA | W 96-74 | -27.5 | L −5.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 5 | vs CIN | W 79-74 | +1.5 | W +6.5 | 147.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 12 | vs MOST | W 75-57 | -18.5 | L −0.5 | 151.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 17 | vs CREI | L 57-98 | -2.5 | L −43.5 | 151.5 | O 155 |
| Dec 20 | @ GTWN | W 80-77 | +4.5 | W +7.5 | 149.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 31 | vs CONN | L 67-90 | +11.5 | L −11.5 | 144.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 3 | @ DEP | L 77-86 | +2.5 | L −6.5 | 149.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 7 | @ MARQ | L 65-66 | +5.5 | W +4.5 | 157.5 | U 131 |
| Jan 10 | vsPROV | W 97-84 | +1.5 | W +14.5 | 165.5 | O 181 |
| Jan 14 | vs BTLR | W 89-75 | +1.5 | W +15.5 | 161.5 | O 164 |
| Jan 21 | @CREI | L 93-94 | +8.5 | W +7.5 | 155.5 | O 187 |
| Jan 24 | vs SJU | L 83-88 | +8.5 | W +3.5 | 159.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 28 | @ HALL | L 68-86 | +5.5 | L −12.5 | 145.5 | O 154 |
| Jan 31 | vsDEP | W 68-66 | -4.5 | L −2.5 | 150.5 | U 134 |
| Feb 3 | @CONN | L 60-92 | +16.5 | L −15.5 | 147.5 | O 152 |
| Feb 9 | @SJU | L 82-87 | +16.5 | W +11.5 | 159.5 | O 169 |
| Feb 14 | vsMARQ | W 96-88 | -1.5 | W +6.5 | 157.5 | O 184 |
| Feb 17 | vs VILL | L 89-92 | +4.5 | W +1.5 | 152.5 | O 181 |
| Feb 21 | @BTLR | L 75-80 | +4.5 | L −0.5 | 159.5 | U 155 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsMRST
MRSTW 66-62
−8.5
6
vsLEM
LEMW 74-69
−19.5
10
vsSCU
SCUL 68-87
−22.5
14
@IOWA
IOWAL 62-81
−3.5
18
vsODU
ODUW 99-69
+19.5
21
vsUGA
UGAL 77-78
+9.5
23
vsWVU
WVUW 78-68
+15.5
28
vsAMCC
AMCCW 88-67
+7.5
1
vsSFPA
SFPAW 96-74
−5.5
5
vsCIN
CINW 79-74
+6.5
12
vsMOST
MOSTW 75-57
−0.5
17
vsCREI
CREIL 57-98
−43.5
20
@GTWN
GTWNW 80-77
+7.5
31
vsCONN
CONNL 67-90
−11.5
3
@DEP
DEPL 77-86
−6.5
7
@MARQ
MARQL 65-66
+4.5
10
vsPROV
PROVW 97-84
+14.5
14
vsBTLR
BTLRW 89-75
+15.5
21
@CREI
CREIL 93-94
+7.5
24
vsSJU
SJUL 83-88
+3.5
28
@HALL
HALLL 68-86
−12.5
31
vsDEP
DEPW 68-66
−2.5
3
@CONN
CONNL 60-92
−15.5
9
@SJU
SJUL 82-87
+11.5
14
vsMARQ
MARQW 96-88
+6.5
17
vsVILL
VILLL 89-92
+1.5
21
@BTLR
BTLRL 75-80
−0.5
covered 14didn’t cover 13avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsMRST
MRSTW 66-62
−11.5
6
vsLEM
LEMW 74-69
−13.5
10
vsSCU
SCUL 68-87
−0.5
14
@IOWA
IOWAL 62-81
−0.5
18
vsODU
ODUW 99-69
+17.5
21
vsUGA
UGAL 77-78
−10.5
23
vsWVU
WVUW 78-68
+5.5
28
vsAMCC
AMCCW 88-67
+8.5
1
vsSFPA
SFPAW 96-74
+17.5
5
vsCIN
CINW 79-74
+5.5
12
vsMOST
MOSTW 75-57
−19.5
17
vsCREI
CREIL 57-98
+3.5
20
@GTWN
GTWNW 80-77
+7.5
31
vsCONN
CONNL 67-90
+12.5
3
@DEP
DEPL 77-86
+13.5
7
@MARQ
MARQL 65-66
−26.5
10
vsPROV
PROVW 97-84
+15.5
14
vsBTLR
BTLRW 89-75
+2.5
21
@CREI
CREIL 93-94
+31.5
24
vsSJU
SJUL 83-88
+11.5
28
@HALL
HALLL 68-86
+8.5
31
vsDEP
DEPW 68-66
−16.5
3
@CONN
CONNL 60-92
+4.5
9
@SJU
SJUL 82-87
+9.5
14
vsMARQ
MARQW 96-88
+26.5
17
vsVILL
VILLL 89-92
+28.5
21
@BTLR
BTLRL 75-80
−4.5
over 18under 9avg +4.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Providence
27 games played
Straight up
12-15
44% wins
Against the spread
15-12
56% covers · avg +0.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
19-8
70% overs · avg +11.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs HC | W 89-79 | -23.5 | L −13.5 | 152.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 8 | vs VT | L 101-107 | -2.5 | L −8.5 | 157.5 | O 208 |
| Nov 11 | vs PENN | W 106-81 | -19.5 | W +5.5 | 172.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 14 | @ COLO | L 88-97 | +1.5 | L −7.5 | 163.5 | O 185 |
| Nov 18 | vs UNH | W 98-66 | -29.5 | W +2.5 | 161.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 22 | vs PSU | W 77-65 | -3.5 | W +8.5 | 165.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 27 | vs WIS | L 83-104 | +6.5 | L −14.5 | 166.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 28 | vs FLA | L 78-90 | +12.5 | W +0.5 | 169.5 | U 168 |
| Dec 2 | vs FDU | W 94-64 | -26.5 | W +3.5 | 162.5 | U 158 |
| Dec 6 | vs URI | W 90-71 | -7.5 | W +11.5 | 159.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 9 | vs BRWN | W 86-79 | -19.5 | L −12.5 | 145.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 13 | @BTLR | L 110-113 | +3.5 | W +0.5 | 164.5 | O 223 |
| Dec 19 | vsHALL | L 67-72 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 152.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 3 | @SJU | W 77-71 | +14.5 | W +20.5 | 166.5 | U 148 |
| Jan 7 | vsCONN | L 98-103 | +9.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | O 201 |
| Jan 10 | @XAV | L 84-97 | -1.5 | L −14.5 | 165.5 | O 181 |
| Jan 13 | vsVILL | L 82-88 | +2.5 | L −3.5 | 156.5 | O 170 |
| Jan 16 | vsCREI | W 93-88 | +2.5 | W +7.5 | 161.5 | O 181 |
| Jan 19 | @MARQ | L 104-105 | +2.5 | W +1.5 | 167.5 | O 209 |
| Jan 24 | vsGTWN | L 78-81 | -5.5 | L −8.5 | 159.5 | U 159 |
| Jan 27 | @CONN | L 81-87 | +15.5 | W +9.5 | 152.5 | O 168 |
| Jan 30 | @VILL | L 73-87 | +8.5 | L −5.5 | 157.5 | O 160 |
| Feb 4 | vsBTLR | W 97-87 | -2.5 | W +7.5 | 168.5 | O 184 |
| Feb 7 | vsDEP | W 90-72 | -4.5 | W +13.5 | 153.5 | O 162 |
| Feb 11 | @HALL | L 80-87 | +4.5 | L −2.5 | 150.5 | O 167 |
| Feb 14 | vsSJU | L 69-79 | +6.5 | L −3.5 | 167.5 | U 148 |
| Feb 21 | @DEP | W 71-68 | +2.5 | W +5.5 | 152.5 | U 139 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsHC
HCW 89-79
−13.5
8
vsVT
VTL 101-107
−8.5
11
vsPENN
PENNW 106-81
+5.5
14
@COLO
COLOL 88-97
−7.5
18
vsUNH
UNHW 98-66
+2.5
22
vsPSU
PSUW 77-65
+8.5
27
vsWIS
WISL 83-104
−14.5
28
vsFLA
FLAL 78-90
+0.5
2
vsFDU
FDUW 94-64
+3.5
6
vsURI
URIW 90-71
+11.5
9
vsBRWN
BRWNW 86-79
−12.5
13
@BTLR
BTLRL 110-113
+0.5
19
vsHALL
HALLL 67-72
−6.5
3
@SJU
SJUW 77-71
+20.5
7
vsCONN
CONNL 98-103
+4.5
10
@XAV
XAVL 84-97
−14.5
13
vsVILL
VILLL 82-88
−3.5
16
vsCREI
CREIW 93-88
+7.5
19
@MARQ
MARQL 104-105
+1.5
24
vsGTWN
GTWNL 78-81
−8.5
27
@CONN
CONNL 81-87
+9.5
30
@VILL
VILLL 73-87
−5.5
4
vsBTLR
BTLRW 97-87
+7.5
7
vsDEP
DEPW 90-72
+13.5
11
@HALL
HALLL 80-87
−2.5
14
vsSJU
SJUL 69-79
−3.5
21
@DEP
DEPW 71-68
+5.5
covered 15didn’t cover 12avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsHC
HCW 89-79
+15.5
8
vsVT
VTL 101-107
+50.5
11
vsPENN
PENNW 106-81
+14.5
14
@COLO
COLOL 88-97
+21.5
18
vsUNH
UNHW 98-66
+2.5
22
vsPSU
PSUW 77-65
−23.5
27
vsWIS
WISL 83-104
+20.5
28
vsFLA
FLAL 78-90
−1.5
2
vsFDU
FDUW 94-64
−4.5
6
vsURI
URIW 90-71
+1.5
9
vsBRWN
BRWNW 86-79
+19.5
13
@BTLR
BTLRL 110-113
+58.5
19
vsHALL
HALLL 67-72
−13.5
3
@SJU
SJUW 77-71
−18.5
7
vsCONN
CONNL 98-103
+48.5
10
@XAV
XAVL 84-97
+15.5
13
vsVILL
VILLL 82-88
+13.5
16
vsCREI
CREIW 93-88
+19.5
19
@MARQ
MARQL 104-105
+41.5
24
vsGTWN
GTWNL 78-81
−0.5
27
@CONN
CONNL 81-87
+15.5
30
@VILL
VILLL 73-87
+2.5
4
vsBTLR
BTLRW 97-87
+15.5
7
vsDEP
DEPW 90-72
+8.5
11
@HALL
HALLL 80-87
+16.5
14
vsSJU
SJUL 69-79
−19.5
21
@DEP
DEPW 71-68
−13.5
over 19under 8avg +11.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Xavier
13-14 overall · 5-11 in conference · Big East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Butler75–80
- Lvs Villanova89–92
- Wvs Marquette96–88
- L@ St John's82–87
- L@ UConn60–92
4 days since their last game.
Providence
12-15 overall · 5-11 in conference · Big East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ DePaul71–68
- Lvs St John's69–79
- L@ Seton Hall80–87
- Wvs DePaul90–72
- Wvs Butler97–87
4 days since their last game.