Lenovo Center · at NC State · Conference game
Closing line
DUKE -8.5✓ DUKE covered by 20.5
DUKE -8.5✓ DUKE covered by 20.5Closing total150.5Over by 6.5
| DUKE | This season | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| 27-2 | Record | 19-10 |
| 18-11 | ATS | 14-15 |
| 9-20 | O/U | 17-12 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: DUKE 80–70 NCSU · ✓ DUKE (81%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DUKE | 47 | 46 | 93 |
| NCSU | 30 | 34 | 64 |
1st half: DUKE 47, NCSU 30 (DUKE by 17). The model had DUKE by 6.0 and a total of 70.5 (actual 77).
Team stats
| DUKE | NCSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 32-59 54% | Field goals | 23-65 35% |
| 11-28 39% | 3-pointers | 7-29 24% |
| 18-27 67% | Free throws | 11-17 65% |
| 44 14 off | Rebounds | 32 15 off |
| 24 | Assists | 12 |
| 3 | Steals | 6 |
| 3 | Blocks | 4 |
| 7 | Turnovers | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 22 |
| 42 | Points in paint | 28 |
| 10 | Fast-break points | 2 |
Players
| DUKE | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Boozer F | 32 | 26 | 9 | 6 | 8-10 | 1-2 |
| Isaiah Evans G | 26 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 4-8 | 4-8 |
| Caleb Foster G | 25 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 2-8 | 1-5 |
| Dame Sarr F | 22 | 16 | 9 | 1 | 5-10 | 3-6 |
| Patrick Ngongba II C | 19 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 4-6 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Maliq Brown F | 20 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Cayden Boozer G | 19 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Nik Khamenia F | 17 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 3-7 | 1-3 |
| Darren Harris G | 14 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Jack Scott G | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Cameron Sheffield G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Ifeanyi Ufochukwu, Sebastian Wilkins
| NCSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul McNeil Jr. G | 34 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 2-8 | 2-7 |
| Darrion Williams F | 29 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 6-17 | 3-11 |
| Quadir Copeland G | 26 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 3-10 | 1-3 |
| Ven-Allen Lubin F | 12 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Tre Holloman G | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Matt Able G | 32 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 4-12 | 1-6 |
| Terrance Arceneaux G | 18 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Musa Sagnia C | 17 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Alyn Breed G | 16 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2-8 | 0-1 |
| Scottie Ebube C | 11 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jordan Snell, Zymicah Wilkins, Colt Langdon, Jerry Deng, Jayme Kontuniemi
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketDUKE -8.5
ModelDUKE -9.9
Model edgeDUKE +1.4
W DUKE covered
Total
Market150.5
Model150.7
Model edgeOver 0.2
W Over
Projected score
DUKE 80.3 · NCSU 70.4
DUKE 93 · NCSU 64
Win probability
DUKE 81%
1st half
Spread
DUKE -6.0
DUKE -17.0
Total
70.5
77 points
Projected score
DUKE 38.2 · NCSU 32.2
DUKE 47 · NCSU 30
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenNCSU -9.5
18 → DUKE
CloseDUKE -8.5
18 pts toward DUKE
Total
Open148.5
▲ 2
Close150.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
DUKE -550 · NCSU +410
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened NCSU -9.5 · closed DUKE -8.5 · moved 18 toward DUKEmodel DUKE -10
model DUKE -10
Opened 148.5 · closed 150.5 · moved 2 upmodel 150.5 matches the line
model 150.5 = line ✓
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DUKE | 9-1 90% | 7-3 70% | 2-8 20% |
| NCSU | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% | 7-3 70% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22
DUKE 4–3 NCSUDUKE leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · DUKE 2-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2024-25 | NCSU 64 @ DUKE 74 | DUKE -22.5 | NCSU W |
| Mar 31, 2023-24 | NCSU 76 vs DUKE 64 | DUKE -7.5 | NCSU W |
| Mar 14, 2023-24 | NCSU 74 vs DUKE 69 | DUKE -10.5 | NCSU W |
| Mar 4, 2023-24 | DUKE 79 @ NCSU 64 | NCSU +6.5 | DUKE W |
| Feb 28, 2022-23 | NCSU 67 @ DUKE 71 | DUKE -6.5 | NCSU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Duke
29 games played
Straight up
27-2
93% wins
Against the spread
18-11
62% covers · avg +2.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-20
31% overs · avg −5.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs TEX | W 75-60 | -10.5 | W +4.5 | 153.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 8 | vs WCU | W 95-54 | -36.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 11 | @ ARMY | W 114-59 | -33.5 | W +21.5 | 152.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 14 | vs INST | W 100-62 | -37.5 | W +0.5 | 163.5 | U 162 |
| Nov 18 | vs KU | W 78-66 | -10.5 | W +1.5 | 149.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 21 | vs NIA | W 100-42 | -39.5 | W +18.5 | 146.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 23 | vs HOW | W 93-56 | -43.5 | L −6.5 | 154.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 27 | vs ARK | W 80-71 | -12.5 | L −3.5 | 159.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 2 | vs FLA | W 67-66 | -9.5 | L −8.5 | 157.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 6 | @ MSU | W 66-60 | -1.5 | W +4.5 | 141.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 16 | vs LIP | W 97-73 | -32.5 | L −8.5 | 151.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 20 | vs TTU | L 81-82 | -9.5 | L −10.5 | 152.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 31 | vs GT | W 85-79 | -27.5 | L −21.5 | 153.5 | O 164 |
| Jan 3 | @ FSU | W 91-87 | -16.5 | L −12.5 | 163.5 | O 178 |
| Jan 6 | @ LOU | W 84-73 | -1.5 | W +9.5 | 161.5 | U 157 |
| Jan 10 | vs SMU | W 82-75 | -15.5 | L −8.5 | 155.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 14 | @ CAL | W 71-56 | -14.5 | W +0.5 | 149.5 | U 127 |
| Jan 17 | @ STAN | W 80-50 | -11.5 | W +18.5 | 148.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 24 | vs WAKE | W 90-69 | -19.5 | W +1.5 | 153.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 26 | vsLOU | W 83-52 | -8.5 | W +22.5 | 157.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 31 | @ VT | W 72-58 | -13.5 | W +0.5 | 148.5 | U 130 |
| Feb 3 | vs BC | W 67-49 | -26.5 | L −8.5 | 141.5 | U 116 |
| Feb 7 | @ UNC | L 68-71 | -6.5 | L −9.5 | 152.5 | U 139 |
| Feb 10 | @ PITT | W 70-54 | -17.5 | L −1.5 | 136.5 | U 124 |
| Feb 14 | vs CLEM | W 67-54 | -12.5 | W +0.5 | 134.5 | U 121 |
| Feb 16 | vs SYR | W 101-64 | -20.5 | W +16.5 | 144.5 | O 165 |
| Feb 21 | vs MICH | W 68-63 | +3.5 | W +8.5 | 151.5 | U 131 |
| Feb 24 | @ ND | W 100-56 | -16.5 | W +27.5 | 141.5 | O 156 |
| Feb 28 | vs UVA | W 77-51 | -9.5 | W +16.5 | 143.5 | U 128 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsTEX
TEXW 75-60
+4.5
8
vsWCU
WCUW 95-54
+4.5
11
@ARMY
ARMYW 114-59
+21.5
14
vsINST
INSTW 100-62
+0.5
18
vsKU
KUW 78-66
+1.5
21
vsNIA
NIAW 100-42
+18.5
23
vsHOW
HOWW 93-56
−6.5
27
vsARK
ARKW 80-71
−3.5
2
vsFLA
FLAW 67-66
−8.5
6
@MSU
MSUW 66-60
+4.5
16
vsLIP
LIPW 97-73
−8.5
20
vsTTU
TTUL 81-82
−10.5
31
vsGT
GTW 85-79
−21.5
3
@FSU
FSUW 91-87
−12.5
6
@LOU
LOUW 84-73
+9.5
10
vsSMU
SMUW 82-75
−8.5
14
@CAL
CALW 71-56
+0.5
17
@STAN
STANW 80-50
+18.5
24
vsWAKE
WAKEW 90-69
+1.5
26
vsLOU
LOUW 83-52
+22.5
31
@VT
VTW 72-58
+0.5
3
vsBC
BCW 67-49
−8.5
7
@UNC
UNCL 68-71
−9.5
10
@PITT
PITTW 70-54
−1.5
14
vsCLEM
CLEMW 67-54
+0.5
16
vsSYR
SYRW 101-64
+16.5
21
vsMICH
MICHW 68-63
+8.5
24
@ND
NDW 100-56
+27.5
28
vsUVA
UVAW 77-51
+16.5
covered 18didn’t cover 11avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsTEX
TEXW 75-60
−18.5
8
vsWCU
WCUW 95-54
−3.5
11
@ARMY
ARMYW 114-59
+20.5
14
vsINST
INSTW 100-62
−1.5
18
vsKU
KUW 78-66
−5.5
21
vsNIA
NIAW 100-42
−4.5
23
vsHOW
HOWW 93-56
−5.5
27
vsARK
ARKW 80-71
−8.5
2
vsFLA
FLAW 67-66
−24.5
6
@MSU
MSUW 66-60
−15.5
16
vsLIP
LIPW 97-73
+18.5
20
vsTTU
TTUL 81-82
+10.5
31
vsGT
GTW 85-79
+10.5
3
@FSU
FSUW 91-87
+14.5
6
@LOU
LOUW 84-73
−4.5
10
vsSMU
SMUW 82-75
+1.5
14
@CAL
CALW 71-56
−22.5
17
@STAN
STANW 80-50
−18.5
24
vsWAKE
WAKEW 90-69
+5.5
26
vsLOU
LOUW 83-52
−22.5
31
@VT
VTW 72-58
−18.5
3
vsBC
BCW 67-49
−25.5
7
@UNC
UNCL 68-71
−13.5
10
@PITT
PITTW 70-54
−12.5
14
vsCLEM
CLEMW 67-54
−13.5
16
vsSYR
SYRW 101-64
+20.5
21
vsMICH
MICHW 68-63
−20.5
24
@ND
NDW 100-56
+14.5
28
vsUVA
UVAW 77-51
−15.5
over 9under 20avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
NC State
29 games played
Straight up
19-10
66% wins
Against the spread
14-15
48% covers · avg −0.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
17-12
59% overs · avg +5.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs NCCU | W 114-66 | -31.5 | W +16.5 | 145.5 | O 180 |
| Nov 7 | vs UAB | W 94-70 | -19.5 | W +4.5 | 162.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 12 | vs UNCG | W 110-64 | -30.5 | W +15.5 | 153.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 17 | vs VCU | W 85-79 | -11.5 | L −5.5 | 164.5 | U 164 |
| Nov 24 | vs HALL | L 74-85 | -7.5 | L −18.5 | 143.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 25 | vs BOIS | W 81-70 | -6.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 26 | vsTEX | L 97-102 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 161.5 | O 199 |
| Dec 3 | @ AUB | L 73-83 | +5.5 | L −4.5 | 162.5 | U 156 |
| Dec 6 | vs UNCA | W 75-63 | -28.5 | L −16.5 | 155.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 10 | vs LIB | W 85-45 | -12.5 | W +27.5 | 149.5 | U 130 |
| Dec 13 | vsKU | L 76-77 | -1.5 | L −2.5 | 148.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 17 | vs TXSO | W 108-72 | -34.5 | W +1.5 | 152.5 | O 180 |
| Dec 21 | vs MISS | W 76-62 | -7.5 | W +6.5 | 148.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 31 | vsWAKE | W 70-57 | -10.5 | W +2.5 | 159.5 | U 127 |
| Jan 3 | vsUVA | L 61-76 | -4.5 | L −19.5 | 151.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 6 | @BC | W 79-71 | -11.5 | L −3.5 | 141.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 10 | @FSU | W 113-69 | -4.5 | W +39.5 | 160.5 | O 182 |
| Jan 17 | vsGT | L 74-78 | -17.5 | L −21.5 | 154.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 20 | @CLEM | W 80-76 | +2.5 | W +6.5 | 142.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 24 | @PITT | W 81-72 | -6.5 | W +2.5 | 144.5 | O 153 |
| Jan 27 | vsSYR | W 88-68 | -10.5 | W +9.5 | 151.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 31 | @WAKE | W 96-78 | -5.5 | W +12.5 | 156.5 | O 174 |
| Feb 3 | @SMU | W 84-83 | -1.5 | L −0.5 | 159.5 | O 167 |
| Feb 7 | vsVT | W 82-73 | -10.5 | L −1.5 | 154.5 | O 155 |
| Feb 9 | @LOU | L 77-118 | +6.5 | L −34.5 | 161.5 | O 195 |
| Feb 14 | vs MIA | L 76-77 | -5.5 | L −6.5 | 157.5 | U 153 |
| Feb 17 | vsUNC | W 82-58 | -8.5 | W +15.5 | 156.5 | U 140 |
| Feb 24 | @UVA | L 61-90 | +6.5 | L −22.5 | 151.5 | U 151 |
| Feb 28 | @ND | L 90-96 | -6.5 | L −12.5 | 153.5 | O 186 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsNCCU
NCCUW 114-66
+16.5
7
vsUAB
UABW 94-70
+4.5
12
vsUNCG
UNCGW 110-64
+15.5
17
vsVCU
VCUW 85-79
−5.5
24
vsHALL
HALLL 74-85
−18.5
25
vsBOIS
BOISW 81-70
+4.5
26
vsTEX
TEXL 97-102
−6.5
3
@AUB
AUBL 73-83
−4.5
6
vsUNCA
UNCAW 75-63
−16.5
10
vsLIB
LIBW 85-45
+27.5
13
vsKU
KUL 76-77
−2.5
17
vsTXSO
TXSOW 108-72
+1.5
21
vsMISS
MISSW 76-62
+6.5
31
vsWAKE
WAKEW 70-57
+2.5
3
vsUVA
UVAL 61-76
−19.5
6
@BC
BCW 79-71
−3.5
10
@FSU
FSUW 113-69
+39.5
17
vsGT
GTL 74-78
−21.5
20
@CLEM
CLEMW 80-76
+6.5
24
@PITT
PITTW 81-72
+2.5
27
vsSYR
SYRW 88-68
+9.5
31
@WAKE
WAKEW 96-78
+12.5
3
@SMU
SMUW 84-83
−0.5
7
vsVT
VTW 82-73
−1.5
9
@LOU
LOUL 77-118
−34.5
14
vsMIA
MIAL 76-77
−6.5
17
vsUNC
UNCW 82-58
+15.5
24
@UVA
UVAL 61-90
−22.5
28
@ND
NDL 90-96
−12.5
covered 14didn’t cover 15avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsNCCU
NCCUW 114-66
+34.5
7
vsUAB
UABW 94-70
+1.5
12
vsUNCG
UNCGW 110-64
+20.5
17
vsVCU
VCUW 85-79
−0.5
24
vsHALL
HALLL 74-85
+15.5
25
vsBOIS
BOISW 81-70
−1.5
26
vsTEX
TEXL 97-102
+37.5
3
@AUB
AUBL 73-83
−6.5
6
vsUNCA
UNCAW 75-63
−17.5
10
vsLIB
LIBW 85-45
−19.5
13
vsKU
KUL 76-77
+4.5
17
vsTXSO
TXSOW 108-72
+27.5
21
vsMISS
MISSW 76-62
−10.5
31
vsWAKE
WAKEW 70-57
−32.5
3
vsUVA
UVAL 61-76
−14.5
6
@BC
BCW 79-71
+8.5
10
@FSU
FSUW 113-69
+21.5
17
vsGT
GTL 74-78
−2.5
20
@CLEM
CLEMW 80-76
+13.5
24
@PITT
PITTW 81-72
+8.5
27
vsSYR
SYRW 88-68
+4.5
31
@WAKE
WAKEW 96-78
+17.5
3
@SMU
SMUW 84-83
+7.5
7
vsVT
VTW 82-73
+0.5
9
@LOU
LOUL 77-118
+33.5
14
vsMIA
MIAL 76-77
−4.5
17
vsUNC
UNCW 82-58
−16.5
24
@UVA
UVAL 61-90
−0.5
28
@ND
NDL 90-96
+32.5
over 17under 12avg +5.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Duke
27-2 overall · 15-1 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Virginia77–51
- W@ Notre Dame100–56
- Wvs Michigan68–63
- Wvs Syracuse101–64
- Wvs Clemson67–54
2 days since their last game.
NC State
19-10 overall · 10-6 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Notre Dame90–96
- L@ Virginia61–90
- Wvs North Carolina82–58
- Lvs Miami76–77
- L@ Louisville77–118
2 days since their last game.