KFC Yum! Center · at Louisville · Conference game
Closing line
LOU -6.5✓ LOU covered by 34.5
LOU -6.5✓ LOU covered by 34.5Closing total161.5Over by 33.5
 NCSU | This season | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| 18-6 | Record | 17-6 |
| 13-11 | ATS | 11-12 |
| 15-9 | O/U | 9-14 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: NCSU 77–83 LOU · ✓ LOU (72%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NCSU | 36 | 41 | 77 |
| LOU | 56 | 62 | 118 |
1st half: NCSU 36, LOU 56 (LOU by 20). The model had LOU by 3.8 and a total of 74.8 (actual 92).
Team stats
| NCSU | LOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 28-68 41% | Field goals | 39-65 60% |
| 4-22 18% | 3-pointers | 18-30 60% |
| 17-19 89% | Free throws | 22-27 81% |
| 28 6 off | Rebounds | 42 8 off |
| 10 | Assists | 21 |
| 6 | Steals | 6 |
| 2 | Blocks | 3 |
| 10 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 17 | Fouls | 16 |
| 46 | Points in paint | 40 |
| 5 | Fast-break points | 9 |
Players
| NCSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Holloman G | 30 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 7-13 | 1-5 |
| Darrion Williams F | 28 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 3-13 | 2-7 |
| Ven-Allen Lubin F | 26 | 20 | 6 | 0 | 7-10 | 0-1 |
| Paul McNeil Jr. G | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-5 | 0-2 |
| Quadir Copeland G | 21 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 4-10 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Matt Able G | 28 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 2-6 | 1-2 |
| Terrance Arceneaux G | 17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Musa Sagnia C | 14 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2-5 | 0-1 |
| Alyn Breed G | 6 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Scottie Ebube C | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Colt Langdon, Jerry Deng, Jordan Snell, Zymicah Wilkins, Jayme Kontuniemi
| LOU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikel Brown Jr. G | 34 | 45 | 9 | 2 | 14-23 | 10-16 |
| Ryan Conwell G | 29 | 31 | 7 | 6 | 10-14 | 5-6 |
| Isaac McKneely G | 26 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2-6 | 2-5 |
| J'Vonne Hadley G | 22 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 4-5 | 0-0 |
| Sananda Fru F | 18 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Khani Rooths F | 15 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Aly Khalifa C | 12 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Adrian Wooley G | 11 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Kobe Rodgers G | 11 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Vangelis Zougris F | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Kasean Pryor F | 9 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Cole Sherman G | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Spencer Legg G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Will Hanke G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: London Johnson, Mouhamed Camara
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketLOU -6.5
ModelLOU -6.6
Model edgeLOU +0.1
W LOU covered
Total
Market161.5
Model159.9
Model edgeUnder 1.6
L Over
Projected score
NCSU 76.7 · LOU 83.3
NCSU 77 · LOU 118
Win probability
LOU 72%
1st half
Spread
LOU -3.8
LOU -20.0
Total
74.8
92 points
Projected score
NCSU 35.5 · LOU 39.3
NCSU 36 · LOU 56
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenLOU -5.5
1 → LOU
CloseLOU -6.5
1 pt toward LOU
Total
Open162.5
▼ 1
Close161.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
NCSU +260 · LOU -325
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened LOU -5.5 · closed LOU -6.5 · moved 1 toward LOUmodel LOU -6.5 matches the line
model LOU -6.5 = line ✓
Opened 162.5 · closed 161.5 · moved 1 downmodel 160
model 160
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NCSU | 8-2 80% | 5-5 50% | 8-2 80% |
| LOU | 6-4 60% | 2-8 20% | 2-8 20% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22
NCSU 4–2 LOUNCSU leads · 6 games since 2021-22 · NCSU 1-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 12, 2024-25 | LOU 91 @ NCSU 66 | NCSU +7.5 | LOU W |
| Mar 12, 2023-24 | LOU 85 vs NCSU 94 | NCSU -9.5 | LOU W |
| Jan 13, 2023-24 | NCSU 89 @ LOU 83 | LOU +7.5 | LOU W |
| Dec 22, 2022-23 | LOU 64 @ NCSU 76 | NCSU -18.5 | LOU W |
| Jan 12, 2021-22 | NCSU 79 @ LOU 63 | LOU -6 | NCSU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
NC State
24 games played
Straight up
18-6
75% wins
Against the spread
13-11
54% covers · avg +2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
15-9
63% overs · avg +4.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs NCCU | W 114-66 | -31.5 | W +16.5 | 145.5 | O 180 |
| Nov 7 | vs UAB | W 94-70 | -19.5 | W +4.5 | 162.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 12 | vs UNCG | W 110-64 | -30.5 | W +15.5 | 153.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 17 | vs VCU | W 85-79 | -11.5 | L −5.5 | 164.5 | U 164 |
| Nov 24 | vs HALL | L 74-85 | -7.5 | L −18.5 | 143.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 25 | vs BOIS | W 81-70 | -6.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 26 | vs TEX | L 97-102 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 161.5 | O 199 |
| Dec 3 | @ AUB | L 73-83 | +5.5 | L −4.5 | 162.5 | U 156 |
| Dec 6 | vs UNCA | W 75-63 | -28.5 | L −16.5 | 155.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 10 | vs LIB | W 85-45 | -12.5 | W +27.5 | 149.5 | U 130 |
| Dec 13 | vs KU | L 76-77 | -1.5 | L −2.5 | 148.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 17 | vs TXSO | W 108-72 | -34.5 | W +1.5 | 152.5 | O 180 |
| Dec 21 | vs MISS | W 76-62 | -7.5 | W +6.5 | 148.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 31 | vs WAKE | W 70-57 | -10.5 | W +2.5 | 159.5 | U 127 |
| Jan 3 | vs UVA | L 61-76 | -4.5 | L −19.5 | 151.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 6 | @ BC | W 79-71 | -11.5 | L −3.5 | 141.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 10 | @ FSU | W 113-69 | -4.5 | W +39.5 | 160.5 | O 182 |
| Jan 17 | vs GT | L 74-78 | -17.5 | L −21.5 | 154.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 20 | @ CLEM | W 80-76 | +2.5 | W +6.5 | 142.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 24 | @ PITT | W 81-72 | -6.5 | W +2.5 | 144.5 | O 153 |
| Jan 27 | vs SYR | W 88-68 | -10.5 | W +9.5 | 151.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 31 | @WAKE | W 96-78 | -5.5 | W +12.5 | 156.5 | O 174 |
| Feb 3 | @ SMU | W 84-83 | -1.5 | L −0.5 | 159.5 | O 167 |
| Feb 7 | vs VT | W 82-73 | -10.5 | L −1.5 | 154.5 | O 155 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsNCCU
NCCUW 114-66
+16.5
7
vsUAB
UABW 94-70
+4.5
12
vsUNCG
UNCGW 110-64
+15.5
17
vsVCU
VCUW 85-79
−5.5
24
vsHALL
HALLL 74-85
−18.5
25
vsBOIS
BOISW 81-70
+4.5
26
vsTEX
TEXL 97-102
−6.5
3
@AUB
AUBL 73-83
−4.5
6
vsUNCA
UNCAW 75-63
−16.5
10
vsLIB
LIBW 85-45
+27.5
13
vsKU
KUL 76-77
−2.5
17
vsTXSO
TXSOW 108-72
+1.5
21
vsMISS
MISSW 76-62
+6.5
31
vsWAKE
WAKEW 70-57
+2.5
3
vsUVA
UVAL 61-76
−19.5
6
@BC
BCW 79-71
−3.5
10
@FSU
FSUW 113-69
+39.5
17
vsGT
GTL 74-78
−21.5
20
@CLEM
CLEMW 80-76
+6.5
24
@PITT
PITTW 81-72
+2.5
27
vsSYR
SYRW 88-68
+9.5
31
@WAKE
WAKEW 96-78
+12.5
3
@SMU
SMUW 84-83
−0.5
7
vsVT
VTW 82-73
−1.5
covered 13didn’t cover 11avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsNCCU
NCCUW 114-66
+34.5
7
vsUAB
UABW 94-70
+1.5
12
vsUNCG
UNCGW 110-64
+20.5
17
vsVCU
VCUW 85-79
−0.5
24
vsHALL
HALLL 74-85
+15.5
25
vsBOIS
BOISW 81-70
−1.5
26
vsTEX
TEXL 97-102
+37.5
3
@AUB
AUBL 73-83
−6.5
6
vsUNCA
UNCAW 75-63
−17.5
10
vsLIB
LIBW 85-45
−19.5
13
vsKU
KUL 76-77
+4.5
17
vsTXSO
TXSOW 108-72
+27.5
21
vsMISS
MISSW 76-62
−10.5
31
vsWAKE
WAKEW 70-57
−32.5
3
vsUVA
UVAL 61-76
−14.5
6
@BC
BCW 79-71
+8.5
10
@FSU
FSUW 113-69
+21.5
17
vsGT
GTL 74-78
−2.5
20
@CLEM
CLEMW 80-76
+13.5
24
@PITT
PITTW 81-72
+8.5
27
vsSYR
SYRW 88-68
+4.5
31
@WAKE
WAKEW 96-78
+17.5
3
@SMU
SMUW 84-83
+7.5
7
vsVT
VTW 82-73
+0.5
over 15under 9avg +4.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Louisville
23 games played
Straight up
17-6
74% wins
Against the spread
11-12
48% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-14
39% overs · avg −4.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs SCST | W 104-45 | -35.5 | W +23.5 | 159.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 6 | vs JKST | W 106-70 | -38.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 11 | vs UK | W 96-88 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 173.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 15 | vs OHIO | W 106-81 | -31.5 | L −6.5 | 174.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 21 | vs CIN | W 74-64 | -8.5 | W +1.5 | 163.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 24 | vs EMU | W 87-46 | -33.5 | W +7.5 | 162.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 26 | vs NJIT | W 104-47 | -44.5 | W +12.5 | 158.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 3 | @ ARK | L 80-89 | -1.5 | L −10.5 | 166.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 6 | vs IU | W 87-78 | -3.5 | W +5.5 | 162.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 13 | vs MEM | W 99-73 | -16.5 | W +9.5 | 162.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 16 | @ TENN | L 62-83 | +4.5 | L −16.5 | 156.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 20 | vs MONT | W 94-54 | -30.5 | W +9.5 | 166.5 | U 148 |
| Dec 30 | @ CAL | W 90-70 | -7.5 | W +12.5 | 159.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 2 | @ STAN | L 76-80 | -7.5 | L −11.5 | 157.5 | U 156 |
| Jan 6 | vs DUKE | L 73-84 | +1.5 | L −9.5 | 161.5 | U 157 |
| Jan 10 | vsBC | W 75-62 | -21.5 | L −8.5 | 150.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 13 | vsUVA | L 70-79 | -4.5 | L −13.5 | 154.5 | U 149 |
| Jan 17 | @PITT | W 100-59 | -7.5 | W +33.5 | 152.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 24 | vsVT | W 85-71 | -14.5 | L −0.5 | 160.5 | U 156 |
| Jan 26 | @DUKE | L 52-83 | +8.5 | L −22.5 | 157.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 31 | vsSMU | W 88-74 | -9.5 | W +4.5 | 163.5 | U 162 |
| Feb 4 | vs ND | W 76-65 | -19.5 | L −8.5 | 155.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 7 | @WAKE | W 88-80 | -9.5 | L −1.5 | 162.5 | O 168 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsSCST
SCSTW 104-45
+23.5
6
vsJKST
JKSTW 106-70
−2.5
11
vsUK
UKW 96-88
+2.5
15
vsOHIO
OHIOW 106-81
−6.5
21
vsCIN
CINW 74-64
+1.5
24
vsEMU
EMUW 87-46
+7.5
26
vsNJIT
NJITW 104-47
+12.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 80-89
−10.5
6
vsIU
IUW 87-78
+5.5
13
vsMEM
MEMW 99-73
+9.5
16
@TENN
TENNL 62-83
−16.5
20
vsMONT
MONTW 94-54
+9.5
30
@CAL
CALW 90-70
+12.5
2
@STAN
STANL 76-80
−11.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 73-84
−9.5
10
vsBC
BCW 75-62
−8.5
13
vsUVA
UVAL 70-79
−13.5
17
@PITT
PITTW 100-59
+33.5
24
vsVT
VTW 85-71
−0.5
26
@DUKE
DUKEL 52-83
−22.5
31
vsSMU
SMUW 88-74
+4.5
4
vsND
NDW 76-65
−8.5
7
@WAKE
WAKEW 88-80
−1.5
covered 11didn’t cover 12avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsSCST
SCSTW 104-45
−10.5
6
vsJKST
JKSTW 106-70
+10.5
11
vsUK
UKW 96-88
+10.5
15
vsOHIO
OHIOW 106-81
+12.5
21
vsCIN
CINW 74-64
−25.5
24
vsEMU
EMUW 87-46
−29.5
26
vsNJIT
NJITW 104-47
−7.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 80-89
+2.5
6
vsIU
IUW 87-78
+2.5
13
vsMEM
MEMW 99-73
+9.5
16
@TENN
TENNL 62-83
−11.5
20
vsMONT
MONTW 94-54
−18.5
30
@CAL
CALW 90-70
+0.5
2
@STAN
STANL 76-80
−1.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 73-84
−4.5
10
vsBC
BCW 75-62
−13.5
13
vsUVA
UVAL 70-79
−5.5
17
@PITT
PITTW 100-59
+6.5
24
vsVT
VTW 85-71
−4.5
26
@DUKE
DUKEL 52-83
−22.5
31
vsSMU
SMUW 88-74
−1.5
4
vsND
NDW 76-65
−14.5
7
@WAKE
WAKEW 88-80
+5.5
over 9under 14avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
NC State
18-6 overall · 9-2 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Virginia Tech82–73
- W@ SMU84–83
- W@ Wake Forest96–78
- Wvs Syracuse88–68
- W@ Pitt81–72
2 days since their last game.
Louisville
17-6 overall · 7-4 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Wake Forest88–80
- Wvs Notre Dame76–65
- Wvs SMU88–74
- L@ Duke52–83
- Wvs Virginia Tech85–71
2 days since their last game.