Maples Pavilion · at Stanford · Conference game
Closing line
UNC -4.5✓ STAN covered by 9.5
UNC -4.5✓ STAN covered by 9.5Closing total147.5Over by 37.5
| UNC | This season | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| 14-2 | Record | 13-4 |
| 9-7 | ATS | 9-8 |
| 6-10 | O/U | 6-11 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: UNC 76–71 STAN · ✗ UNC (68%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNC | 47 | 43 | 90 |
| STAN | 45 | 50 | 95 |
1st half: UNC 47, STAN 45 (UNC by 2). The model had UNC by 3.4 and a total of 68.8 (actual 92).
Team stats
| UNC | STAN | |
|---|---|---|
| 32-55 58% | Field goals | 32-56 57% |
| 6-16 38% | 3-pointers | 16-28 57% |
| 20-32 63% | Free throws | 15-23 65% |
| 33 8 off | Rebounds | 23 2 off |
| 7 | Assists | 20 |
| 4 | Steals | 6 |
| 2 | Blocks | 0 |
| 11 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 17 | Fouls | 21 |
| 38 | Points in paint | 28 |
| 7 | Fast-break points | 16 |
Players
| UNC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seth Trimble G | 36 | 13 | 6 | 0 | 5-9 | 1-3 |
| Caleb Wilson F | 36 | 26 | 9 | 2 | 11-16 | 0-0 |
| Henri Veesaar C | 32 | 26 | 6 | 1 | 9-12 | 2-2 |
| Kyan Evans G | 28 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1-5 | 1-4 |
| Jarin Stevenson F | 27 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Luka Bogavac G | 19 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 4-9 | 1-4 |
| Derek Dixon G | 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Jaydon Young G | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jonathan Powell G | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Zayden High F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Elijah Davis, Isaiah Denis, John Holbrook, Ivan Matlekovic, Evan Smith, James Brown
| STAN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebuka Okorie G | 36 | 36 | 3 | 9 | 12-20 | 3-5 |
| Ryan Agarwal G | 34 | 20 | 6 | 1 | 7-11 | 5-9 |
| Benny Gealer G | 23 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Oskar Giltay C | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Donavin Young F | 9 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| AJ Rohosy F | 24 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 2-6 | 0-0 |
| Aidan Cammann F | 24 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Jeremy Dent-Smith G | 21 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 7-8 | 6-7 |
| Cameron Grant G | 16 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
Did not play: Evan Stinson, Tallis Toure, Anthony Batson Jr., Jaylen Thompson, Ethan Kitch, Myles Jones, Kristers Skrinda, Chisom Okpara
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUNC -4.5
ModelUNC -5.5
Model edgeUNC +1.0
L STAN covered
Total
Market147.5
Model146.8
Model edgeUnder 0.7
L Over
Projected score
UNC 76.2 · STAN 70.7
UNC 90 · STAN 95
Win probability
UNC 68%
1st half
Spread
UNC -3.4
UNC -2.0
Total
68.8
92 points
Projected score
UNC 36.1 · STAN 32.7
UNC 47 · STAN 45
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUNC -2.5
2 → UNC
CloseUNC -4.5
2 pts toward UNC
Total
Open145.5
▲ 2
Close147.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
UNC -198 · STAN +164
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UNC -2.5 · closed UNC -4.5 · moved 2 toward UNCmodel UNC -5.5
model UNC -5.5
Opened 145.5 · closed 147.5 · moved 2 upmodel 147
model 147
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNC | 8-2 80% | 5-5 50% | 3-7 30% |
| STAN | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% | 3-7 30% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
UNC 0–1 STANSTAN leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · UNC 0-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2024-25 | STAN 72 @ UNC 71 | UNC -12.5 | STAN W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
North Carolina
16 games played
Straight up
14-2
88% wins
Against the spread
9-7
56% covers · avg +0.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-10
38% overs · avg −7.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs CARK | W 94-54 | -31.5 | W +8.5 | 157.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 7 | vs KU | W 87-74 | -2.5 | W +10.5 | 159.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 11 | vs RAD | W 89-74 | -20.5 | L −5.5 | 162.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 14 | vs NCCU | W 97-53 | -34.5 | W +9.5 | 159.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 18 | vs NAVY | W 73-61 | -26.5 | L −14.5 | 160.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 25 | vs SBU | W 85-70 | -10.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | O 155 |
| Nov 27 | vs MSU | L 58-74 | +1.5 | L −14.5 | 152.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 2 | @ UK | W 67-64 | +7.5 | W +10.5 | 163.5 | U 131 |
| Dec 7 | vs GTWN | W 81-61 | -10.5 | W +9.5 | 149.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 13 | vs UPST | W 80-62 | -29.5 | L −11.5 | 151.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 16 | vs ETSU | W 77-58 | -17.5 | W +1.5 | 150.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 20 | vs OSU | W 71-70 | -2.5 | L −1.5 | 157.5 | U 141 |
| Dec 22 | vs ECU | W 99-51 | -25.5 | W +22.5 | 144.5 | O 150 |
| Dec 30 | vs FSU | W 79-66 | -12.5 | W +0.5 | 166.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 3 | @ SMU | L 83-97 | +1.5 | L −12.5 | 155.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 10 | vs WAKE | W 87-84 | -10.5 | L −7.5 | 154.5 | O 171 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCARK
CARKW 94-54
+8.5
7
vsKU
KUW 87-74
+10.5
11
vsRAD
RADW 89-74
−5.5
14
vsNCCU
NCCUW 97-53
+9.5
18
vsNAVY
NAVYW 73-61
−14.5
25
vsSBU
SBUW 85-70
+4.5
27
vsMSU
MSUL 58-74
−14.5
2
@UK
UKW 67-64
+10.5
7
vsGTWN
GTWNW 81-61
+9.5
13
vsUPST
UPSTW 80-62
−11.5
16
vsETSU
ETSUW 77-58
+1.5
20
vsOSU
OSUW 71-70
−1.5
22
vsECU
ECUW 99-51
+22.5
30
vsFSU
FSUW 79-66
+0.5
3
@SMU
SMUL 83-97
−12.5
10
vsWAKE
WAKEW 87-84
−7.5
covered 9didn’t cover 7avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCARK
CARKW 94-54
−9.5
7
vsKU
KUW 87-74
+1.5
11
vsRAD
RADW 89-74
+0.5
14
vsNCCU
NCCUW 97-53
−9.5
18
vsNAVY
NAVYW 73-61
−26.5
25
vsSBU
SBUW 85-70
+2.5
27
vsMSU
MSUL 58-74
−20.5
2
@UK
UKW 67-64
−32.5
7
vsGTWN
GTWNW 81-61
−7.5
13
vsUPST
UPSTW 80-62
−9.5
16
vsETSU
ETSUW 77-58
−15.5
20
vsOSU
OSUW 71-70
−16.5
22
vsECU
ECUW 99-51
+5.5
30
vsFSU
FSUW 79-66
−21.5
3
@SMU
SMUL 83-97
+24.5
10
vsWAKE
WAKEW 87-84
+16.5
over 6under 10avg −7.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Stanford
17 games played
Straight up
13-4
76% wins
Against the spread
9-8
53% covers · avg −0.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-11
35% overs · avg −2.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs PRST | W 89-79 | -11.5 | L −1.5 | 144.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 8 | vs MONT | W 91-68 | -12.5 | W +10.5 | 150.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 12 | vs MTST | W 77-68 | -14.5 | L −5.5 | 148.5 | U 145 |
| Nov 18 | vs UL | W 93-66 | -20.5 | W +6.5 | 139.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 21 | vs SEA | L 69-77 | -10.5 | L −18.5 | 152.5 | U 146 |
| Nov 27 | vs MINN | W 72-68 | -2.5 | W +1.5 | 142.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 28 | vs SLU | W 78-77 | +1.5 | W +2.5 | 160.5 | U 155 |
| Dec 1 | vs PORT | W 94-72 | -19.5 | W +2.5 | 156.5 | O 166 |
| Dec 7 | vs UNLV | L 74-75 | -9.5 | L −10.5 | 164.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 13 | @ SJSU | W 86-82 | -8.5 | L −4.5 | 145.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 17 | vs UTA | W 76-60 | -10.5 | W +5.5 | 139.5 | U 136 |
| Dec 20 | vs COLO | W 77-68 | +2.5 | W +11.5 | 154.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 27 | vs CSUN | W 88-80 | -15.5 | L −7.5 | 160.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 30 | vs ND | L 40-47 | -6.5 | L −13.5 | 143.5 | U 87 |
| Jan 2 | vs LOU | W 80-76 | +7.5 | W +11.5 | 157.5 | U 156 |
| Jan 7 | @ VT | W 69-68 | +3.5 | W +4.5 | 148.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 10 | @ UVA | L 55-70 | +12.5 | L −2.5 | 143.5 | U 125 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsPRST
PRSTW 89-79
−1.5
8
vsMONT
MONTW 91-68
+10.5
12
vsMTST
MTSTW 77-68
−5.5
18
vsUL
ULW 93-66
+6.5
21
vsSEA
SEAL 69-77
−18.5
27
vsMINN
MINNW 72-68
+1.5
28
vsSLU
SLUW 78-77
+2.5
1
vsPORT
PORTW 94-72
+2.5
7
vsUNLV
UNLVL 74-75
−10.5
13
@SJSU
SJSUW 86-82
−4.5
17
vsUTA
UTAW 76-60
+5.5
20
vsCOLO
COLOW 77-68
+11.5
27
vsCSUN
CSUNW 88-80
−7.5
30
vsND
NDL 40-47
−13.5
2
vsLOU
LOUW 80-76
+11.5
7
@VT
VTW 69-68
+4.5
10
@UVA
UVAL 55-70
−2.5
covered 9didn’t cover 8avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsPRST
PRSTW 89-79
+23.5
8
vsMONT
MONTW 91-68
+8.5
12
vsMTST
MTSTW 77-68
−3.5
18
vsUL
ULW 93-66
+19.5
21
vsSEA
SEAL 69-77
−6.5
27
vsMINN
MINNW 72-68
−2.5
28
vsSLU
SLUW 78-77
−5.5
1
vsPORT
PORTW 94-72
+9.5
7
vsUNLV
UNLVL 74-75
−15.5
13
@SJSU
SJSUW 86-82
+22.5
17
vsUTA
UTAW 76-60
−3.5
20
vsCOLO
COLOW 77-68
−9.5
27
vsCSUN
CSUNW 88-80
+7.5
30
vsND
NDL 40-47
−56.5
2
vsLOU
LOUW 80-76
−1.5
7
@VT
VTW 69-68
−11.5
10
@UVA
UVAL 55-70
−18.5
over 6under 11avg −2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
North Carolina
14-2 overall · 2-1 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Wake Forest87–84
- L@ SMU83–97
- Wvs Florida St79–66
- Wvs East Carolina99–51
- Wvs Ohio State71–70
4 days since their last game.
Stanford
13-4 overall · 2-2 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Virginia55–70
- W@ Virginia Tech69–68
- Wvs Louisville80–76
- Lvs Notre Dame40–47
- Wvs CSU Northridge88–80
4 days since their last game.