Dickies Arena · Neutral site
Closing line
LOU -7.5✓ LOU covered by 3.5
LOU -7.5✓ LOU covered by 3.5Closing total162.5Under by 9.5
| LOU | This season | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| 18-6 | Record | 12-11 |
| 12-12 | ATS | 10-13 |
| 10-14 | O/U | 13-10 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: LOU 85–78 BAY · ✓ LOU (73%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOU | 34 | 48 | 82 |
| BAY | 34 | 37 | 71 |
1st half: LOU 34, BAY 34 (tied). The model had LOU by 4.4 and a total of 76.5 (actual 68).
Team stats
| LOU | BAY | |
|---|---|---|
| 28-50 56% | Field goals | 22-60 37% |
| 8-18 44% | 3-pointers | 2-22 9% |
| 18-20 90% | Free throws | 25-30 83% |
| 29 6 off | Rebounds | 30 15 off |
| 18 | Assists | 10 |
| 6 | Steals | 7 |
| 4 | Blocks | 5 |
| 14 | Turnovers | 9 |
| 20 | Fouls | 17 |
| 40 | Points in paint | 36 |
| 18 | Fast-break points | 7 |
Players
| LOU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikel Brown Jr. G | 35 | 29 | 3 | 6 | 8-14 | 4-5 |
| J'Vonne Hadley G | 31 | 20 | 5 | 3 | 7-10 | 2-2 |
| Ryan Conwell G | 31 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 4-10 | 1-5 |
| Sananda Fru F | 27 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| Isaac McKneely G | 19 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Khani Rooths F | 24 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Aly Khalifa C | 13 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Adrian Wooley G | 10 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 3-4 | 1-2 |
| Kasean Pryor F | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Kobe Rodgers G | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Vangelis Zougris, Will Hanke, Mouhamed Camara, London Johnson, Spencer Legg, Cole Sherman
| BAY | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tounde Yessoufou G | 36 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 5-16 | 1-7 |
| Cameron Carr G | 35 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1-11 | 1-7 |
| Obi Agbim G | 33 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0-7 | 0-4 |
| Isaac Williams IV G | 29 | 20 | 2 | 3 | 8-12 | 0-3 |
| Caden Powell C | 22 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Michael Rataj G | 27 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 5-9 | 0-1 |
| James Nnaji C | 18 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
Did not play: JJ White, Maikcol Perez, Mayo Soyoye, Drew Perry, Andre Iguodala II, Juslin Bodo Bodo, Will Kuykendall, James Goodis, Dan Skillings Jr.
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenLOU -7.5
no move
CloseLOU -7.5
No change since the open
Total
Open164.5
▼ 2
Close162.5
Down 2 since the open
Moneyline
LOU -340 · BAY +270
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened LOU -7.5 · unchangedmodel LOU -7
model LOU -7
Opened 164.5 · closed 162.5 · moved 2 downmodel 163.5
model 163.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | LOU -7.5 | LOU -7.1 | BAY +0.4 | L LOU covered |
| Total | 162.5 | 163.7 | Over 1.2 | L Under |
| Projected score | — | LOU 85.4 · BAY 78.3 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | LOU -4.4 | PK |
| 1H total | 76.5 | 68 |
| 1H projected score | LOU 40.4 · BAY 36.1 | LOU 34 · BAY 34 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOU | 7-3 70% | 3-7 30% | 3-7 30% |
| BAY | 3-7 30% | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Louisville
24 games played
Straight up
18-6
75% wins
Against the spread
12-12
50% covers · avg +1.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-14
42% overs · avg −3.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs SCST | W 104-45 | -35.5 | W +23.5 | 159.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 6 | vs JKST | W 106-70 | -38.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 11 | vs UK | W 96-88 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 173.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 15 | vs OHIO | W 106-81 | -31.5 | L −6.5 | 174.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 21 | vs CIN | W 74-64 | -8.5 | W +1.5 | 163.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 24 | vs EMU | W 87-46 | -33.5 | W +7.5 | 162.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 26 | vs NJIT | W 104-47 | -44.5 | W +12.5 | 158.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 3 | @ ARK | L 80-89 | -1.5 | L −10.5 | 166.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 6 | vs IU | W 87-78 | -3.5 | W +5.5 | 162.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 13 | vs MEM | W 99-73 | -16.5 | W +9.5 | 162.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 16 | @ TENN | L 62-83 | +4.5 | L −16.5 | 156.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 20 | vs MONT | W 94-54 | -30.5 | W +9.5 | 166.5 | U 148 |
| Dec 30 | @ CAL | W 90-70 | -7.5 | W +12.5 | 159.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 2 | @ STAN | L 76-80 | -7.5 | L −11.5 | 157.5 | U 156 |
| Jan 6 | vs DUKE | L 73-84 | +1.5 | L −9.5 | 161.5 | U 157 |
| Jan 10 | vs BC | W 75-62 | -21.5 | L −8.5 | 150.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 13 | vs UVA | L 70-79 | -4.5 | L −13.5 | 154.5 | U 149 |
| Jan 17 | @ PITT | W 100-59 | -7.5 | W +33.5 | 152.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 24 | vs VT | W 85-71 | -14.5 | L −0.5 | 160.5 | U 156 |
| Jan 26 | @DUKE | L 52-83 | +8.5 | L −22.5 | 157.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 31 | vs SMU | W 88-74 | -9.5 | W +4.5 | 163.5 | U 162 |
| Feb 4 | vs ND | W 76-65 | -19.5 | L −8.5 | 155.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 7 | @ WAKE | W 88-80 | -9.5 | L −1.5 | 162.5 | O 168 |
| Feb 9 | vs NCSU | W 118-77 | -6.5 | W +34.5 | 161.5 | O 195 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsSCST
SCSTW 104-45
+23.5
6
vsJKST
JKSTW 106-70
−2.5
11
vsUK
UKW 96-88
+2.5
15
vsOHIO
OHIOW 106-81
−6.5
21
vsCIN
CINW 74-64
+1.5
24
vsEMU
EMUW 87-46
+7.5
26
vsNJIT
NJITW 104-47
+12.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 80-89
−10.5
6
vsIU
IUW 87-78
+5.5
13
vsMEM
MEMW 99-73
+9.5
16
@TENN
TENNL 62-83
−16.5
20
vsMONT
MONTW 94-54
+9.5
30
@CAL
CALW 90-70
+12.5
2
@STAN
STANL 76-80
−11.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 73-84
−9.5
10
vsBC
BCW 75-62
−8.5
13
vsUVA
UVAL 70-79
−13.5
17
@PITT
PITTW 100-59
+33.5
24
vsVT
VTW 85-71
−0.5
26
@DUKE
DUKEL 52-83
−22.5
31
vsSMU
SMUW 88-74
+4.5
4
vsND
NDW 76-65
−8.5
7
@WAKE
WAKEW 88-80
−1.5
9
vsNCSU
NCSUW 118-77
+34.5
covered 12didn’t cover 12avg +1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsSCST
SCSTW 104-45
−10.5
6
vsJKST
JKSTW 106-70
+10.5
11
vsUK
UKW 96-88
+10.5
15
vsOHIO
OHIOW 106-81
+12.5
21
vsCIN
CINW 74-64
−25.5
24
vsEMU
EMUW 87-46
−29.5
26
vsNJIT
NJITW 104-47
−7.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 80-89
+2.5
6
vsIU
IUW 87-78
+2.5
13
vsMEM
MEMW 99-73
+9.5
16
@TENN
TENNL 62-83
−11.5
20
vsMONT
MONTW 94-54
−18.5
30
@CAL
CALW 90-70
+0.5
2
@STAN
STANL 76-80
−1.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 73-84
−4.5
10
vsBC
BCW 75-62
−13.5
13
vsUVA
UVAL 70-79
−5.5
17
@PITT
PITTW 100-59
+6.5
24
vsVT
VTW 85-71
−4.5
26
@DUKE
DUKEL 52-83
−22.5
31
vsSMU
SMUW 88-74
−1.5
4
vsND
NDW 76-65
−14.5
7
@WAKE
WAKEW 88-80
+5.5
9
vsNCSU
NCSUW 118-77
+33.5
over 10under 14avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Baylor
23 games played
Straight up
12-11
52% wins
Against the spread
10-13
43% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-10
57% overs · avg +4.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs RGV | W 96-81 | -24.5 | L −9.5 | 154.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 9 | vs WASH | W 78-69 | -6.5 | W +2.5 | 156.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 14 | vs TAR | W 94-81 | -23.5 | L −10.5 | 149.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 24 | vs CREI | W 81-74 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 154.5 | O 155 |
| Nov 25 | vs SJU | L 81-96 | +5.5 | L −9.5 | 159.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 26 | vs SDSU | W 91-81 | -2.5 | W +7.5 | 148.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 2 | vs SAC | W 110-88 | -29.5 | L −7.5 | 158.5 | O 198 |
| Dec 6 | @MEM | L 71-78 | -3.5 | L −10.5 | 158.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 10 | vs NORF | W 97-67 | -26.5 | W +3.5 | 148.5 | O 164 |
| Dec 19 | vs ALCN | W 113-56 | -35.5 | W +21.5 | 160.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 21 | vs SOU | W 111-67 | -26.5 | W +17.5 | 169.5 | O 178 |
| Jan 3 | @ TCU | L 63-69 | +2.5 | L −3.5 | 154.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 7 | vs ISU | L 60-70 | +3.5 | L −6.5 | 155.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 10 | vs HOU | L 55-77 | +2.5 | L −19.5 | 142.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 13 | @ OKST | W 94-79 | -1.5 | W +13.5 | 165.5 | O 173 |
| Jan 16 | @ KU | L 62-80 | +7.5 | L −10.5 | 156.5 | U 142 |
| Jan 20 | vs TTU | L 73-92 | +1.5 | L −17.5 | 154.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 24 | vsTCU | L 90-97 | -4.5 | L −11.5 | 147.5 | O 187 |
| Jan 28 | @CIN | L 57-67 | +3.5 | L −6.5 | 145.5 | U 124 |
| Jan 31 | @ WVU | W 63-53 | +2.5 | W +12.5 | 139.5 | U 116 |
| Feb 4 | vs COLO | W 86-67 | -7.5 | W +11.5 | 155.5 | U 153 |
| Feb 7 | @ISU | L 69-72 | +14.5 | W +11.5 | 151.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 10 | vs BYU | L 94-99 | +3.5 | L −1.5 | 158.5 | O 193 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsRGV
RGVW 96-81
−9.5
9
vsWASH
WASHW 78-69
+2.5
14
vsTAR
TARW 94-81
−10.5
24
vsCREI
CREIW 81-74
+3.5
25
vsSJU
SJUL 81-96
−9.5
26
vsSDSU
SDSUW 91-81
+7.5
2
vsSAC
SACW 110-88
−7.5
6
@MEM
MEML 71-78
−10.5
10
vsNORF
NORFW 97-67
+3.5
19
vsALCN
ALCNW 113-56
+21.5
21
vsSOU
SOUW 111-67
+17.5
3
@TCU
TCUL 63-69
−3.5
7
vsISU
ISUL 60-70
−6.5
10
vsHOU
HOUL 55-77
−19.5
13
@OKST
OKSTW 94-79
+13.5
16
@KU
KUL 62-80
−10.5
20
vsTTU
TTUL 73-92
−17.5
24
vsTCU
TCUL 90-97
−11.5
28
@CIN
CINL 57-67
−6.5
31
@WVU
WVUW 63-53
+12.5
4
vsCOLO
COLOW 86-67
+11.5
7
@ISU
ISUL 69-72
+11.5
10
vsBYU
BYUL 94-99
−1.5
covered 10didn’t cover 13avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsRGV
RGVW 96-81
+22.5
9
vsWASH
WASHW 78-69
−9.5
14
vsTAR
TARW 94-81
+25.5
24
vsCREI
CREIW 81-74
+0.5
25
vsSJU
SJUL 81-96
+17.5
26
vsSDSU
SDSUW 91-81
+23.5
2
vsSAC
SACW 110-88
+39.5
6
@MEM
MEML 71-78
−9.5
10
vsNORF
NORFW 97-67
+15.5
19
vsALCN
ALCNW 113-56
+8.5
21
vsSOU
SOUW 111-67
+8.5
3
@TCU
TCUL 63-69
−22.5
7
vsISU
ISUL 60-70
−25.5
10
vsHOU
HOUL 55-77
−10.5
13
@OKST
OKSTW 94-79
+7.5
16
@KU
KUL 62-80
−14.5
20
vsTTU
TTUL 73-92
+10.5
24
vsTCU
TCUL 90-97
+39.5
28
@CIN
CINL 57-67
−21.5
31
@WVU
WVUW 63-53
−23.5
4
vsCOLO
COLOW 86-67
−2.5
7
@ISU
ISUL 69-72
−10.5
10
vsBYU
BYUL 94-99
+34.5
over 13under 10avg +4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Louisville
18-6 overall · 8-4 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs NC State118–77
- W@ Wake Forest88–80
- Wvs Notre Dame76–65
- Wvs SMU88–74
- L@ Duke52–83
5 days since their last game.
Baylor
12-11 overall · 3-9 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs BYU94–99
- L@ Iowa State69–72
- Wvs Colorado86–67
- W@ West Virginia63–53
- L@ Cincinnati57–67
4 days since their last game.