Mott Athletics Center · at Cal Poly · Conference game
Closing line
UCSB -3.5✓ CP covered by 13.5
UCSB -3.5✓ CP covered by 13.5Closing total159.5Over by 8.5
| UCSB | This season | CP |
|---|---|---|
| 15-8 | Record | 8-16 |
| 10-13 | ATS | 12-12 |
| 12-11 | O/U | 13-11 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: UCSB 83–79 CP · ✗ UCSB (63%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UCSB | 46 | 33 | 79 |
| CP | 37 | 52 | 89 |
1st half: UCSB 46, CP 37 (UCSB by 9). The model had UCSB by 2.4 and a total of 76.0 (actual 83).
Team stats
| UCSB | CP | |
|---|---|---|
| 26-59 44% | Field goals | 29-55 53% |
| 13-34 38% | 3-pointers | 10-27 37% |
| 14-19 74% | Free throws | 21-26 81% |
| 31 10 off | Rebounds | 35 8 off |
| 11 | Assists | 12 |
| 3 | Steals | 3 |
| 1 | Blocks | 4 |
| 8 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 21 | Fouls | 17 |
| 18 | Points in paint | 38 |
| 8 | Fast-break points | 21 |
Players
| UCSB | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ Shaw G | 36 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 4-14 | 2-6 |
| Zion Sensley G | 35 | 21 | 9 | 0 | 8-16 | 4-10 |
| Colin Smith F | 34 | 17 | 6 | 3 | 4-9 | 3-7 |
| Aidan Mahaney G | 33 | 21 | 0 | 2 | 8-13 | 3-8 |
| Hosana Kitenge F | 22 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Marvin McGhee IV G | 25 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Luke Zuffelato G | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Michael Simcoe F | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| ZZ Clark G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Koat Keat Tong F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: John Simcoe, Kyle Haughy, Bryce Bedgood, Jason Fontenet II, Isaac Shingange, Evans Kipruto, Miro Little
| CP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Bandelj G | 35 | 18 | 4 | 2 | 5-11 | 2-6 |
| Cayden Ward G | 33 | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4-10 | 1-5 |
| Hamad Mousa G | 32 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 6-10 | 1-3 |
| Guzman Vasilic G | 28 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 4-5 | 2-3 |
| Austin Goode F | 23 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2-4 | 1-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jackson Mosley PG | 14 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2-5 | 1-3 |
| Troy Plumtree F | 13 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Jess Esso Essis G | 11 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Ali Assran F | 9 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Jake Davis G | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
Did not play: Braden Freeman, Jason Scott, Kieran Elliott, Eric Brown, Aaron Price Jr., Luka Tarlac
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUCSB -3.5
ModelUCSB -3.8
Model edgeUCSB +0.3
L CP covered
Total
Market159.5
Model162.7
Model edgeOver 3.2
W Over
Projected score
UCSB 83.2 · CP 79.4
UCSB 79 · CP 89
Win probability
UCSB 63%
1st half
Spread
UCSB -2.4
UCSB -9.0
Total
76.0
83 points
Projected score
UCSB 39.2 · CP 36.8
UCSB 46 · CP 37
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUCSB -4.5
1 → CP
CloseUCSB -3.5
1 pt toward CP
Total
Open159.5
no move
Close159.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
UCSB -185 · CP +154
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UCSB -4.5 · closed UCSB -3.5 · moved 1 toward CPmodel UCSB -4
model UCSB -4
Opened 159.5 · unchangedmodel 162.5
model 162.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UCSB | 8-2 80% | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% |
| CP | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
UCSB 9–0 CPUCSB leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · UCSB has won the last 9 meetings · UCSB 3-6 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2025-26 | CP 67 @ UCSB 107 | UCSB -8.5 | UCSB W |
| Feb 27, 2024-25 | CP 77 @ UCSB 96 | UCSB -6.5 | UCSB W |
| Jan 11, 2024-25 | UCSB 75 @ CP 72 | CP +4.5 | CP W |
| Feb 29, 2023-24 | CP 75 @ UCSB 83 | UCSB -13.5 | CP W |
| Jan 6, 2023-24 | UCSB 61 @ CP 52 | CP +6.5 | UCSB W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Santa Barbara
23 games played
Straight up
15-8
65% wins
Against the spread
10-13
43% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
12-11
52% overs · avg +4.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | vs SJSU | W 85-74 | -9.5 | W +1.5 | 146.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 11 | @ SAC | W 92-87 | -7.5 | L −2.5 | 161.5 | O 179 |
| Nov 17 | vs LMU | L 74-78 | -3.5 | L −7.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 22 | @ NEV | L 64-77 | +5.5 | L −7.5 | 147.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 28 | vs LEH | W 72-70 | -10.5 | L −8.5 | 146.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 29 | vs SEA | W 74-71 | +2.5 | W +5.5 | 142.5 | O 145 |
| Dec 4 | vs LBSU | W 84-77 | -13.5 | L −6.5 | 141.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 6 | vs CSUB | W 109-84 | -12.5 | W +12.5 | 145.5 | O 193 |
| Dec 13 | vs UVU | L 53-68 | +5.5 | L −9.5 | 146.5 | U 121 |
| Dec 17 | @ GB | L 64-67 | -7.5 | L −10.5 | 140.5 | U 131 |
| Dec 22 | vs PORT | W 79-61 | -9.5 | W +8.5 | 147.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 1 | @ CSUF | L 84-95 | -3.5 | L −14.5 | 155.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 3 | @ CSUN | L 65-74 | +2.5 | L −6.5 | 156.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 8 | vs UCD | L 86-93 | -4.5 | L −11.5 | 147.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 15 | @CSUB | W 75-69 | -7.5 | L −1.5 | 144.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 17 | vs HAW | W 77-62 | +2.5 | W +17.5 | 143.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 22 | vsCP | W 107-67 | -8.5 | W +31.5 | 159.5 | O 174 |
| Jan 24 | @LBSU | W 74-71 | -4.5 | L −1.5 | 144.5 | O 145 |
| Jan 29 | @ UCSD | W 62-48 | +4.5 | W +18.5 | 145.5 | U 110 |
| Jan 31 | vsCSUF | W 83-69 | -8.5 | W +5.5 | 153.5 | U 152 |
| Feb 5 | @UCD | L 75-85 | -3.5 | L −13.5 | 147.5 | O 160 |
| Feb 7 | vs UCI | W 84-79 | -2.5 | W +2.5 | 141.5 | O 163 |
| Feb 12 | @ UCR | W 76-68 | -6.5 | W +1.5 | 145.5 | U 144 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
8
vsSJSU
SJSUW 85-74
+1.5
11
@SAC
SACW 92-87
−2.5
17
vsLMU
LMUL 74-78
−7.5
22
@NEV
NEVL 64-77
−7.5
28
vsLEH
LEHW 72-70
−8.5
29
vsSEA
SEAW 74-71
+5.5
4
vsLBSU
LBSUW 84-77
−6.5
6
vsCSUB
CSUBW 109-84
+12.5
13
vsUVU
UVUL 53-68
−9.5
17
@GB
GBL 64-67
−10.5
22
vsPORT
PORTW 79-61
+8.5
1
@CSUF
CSUFL 84-95
−14.5
3
@CSUN
CSUNL 65-74
−6.5
8
vsUCD
UCDL 86-93
−11.5
15
@CSUB
CSUBW 75-69
−1.5
17
vsHAW
HAWW 77-62
+17.5
22
vsCP
CPW 107-67
+31.5
24
@LBSU
LBSUW 74-71
−1.5
29
@UCSD
UCSDW 62-48
+18.5
31
vsCSUF
CSUFW 83-69
+5.5
5
@UCD
UCDL 75-85
−13.5
7
vsUCI
UCIW 84-79
+2.5
12
@UCR
UCRW 76-68
+1.5
covered 10didn’t cover 13avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
8
vsSJSU
SJSUW 85-74
+12.5
11
@SAC
SACW 92-87
+17.5
17
vsLMU
LMUL 74-78
+6.5
22
@NEV
NEVL 64-77
−6.5
28
vsLEH
LEHW 72-70
−4.5
29
vsSEA
SEAW 74-71
+2.5
4
vsLBSU
LBSUW 84-77
+19.5
6
vsCSUB
CSUBW 109-84
+47.5
13
vsUVU
UVUL 53-68
−25.5
17
@GB
GBL 64-67
−9.5
22
vsPORT
PORTW 79-61
−7.5
1
@CSUF
CSUFL 84-95
+23.5
3
@CSUN
CSUNL 65-74
−17.5
8
vsUCD
UCDL 86-93
+31.5
15
@CSUB
CSUBW 75-69
−0.5
17
vsHAW
HAWW 77-62
−4.5
22
vsCP
CPW 107-67
+14.5
24
@LBSU
LBSUW 74-71
+0.5
29
@UCSD
UCSDW 62-48
−35.5
31
vsCSUF
CSUFW 83-69
−1.5
5
@UCD
UCDL 75-85
+12.5
7
vsUCI
UCIW 84-79
+21.5
12
@UCR
UCRW 76-68
−1.5
over 12under 11avg +4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Cal Poly
24 games played
Straight up
8-16
33% wins
Against the spread
12-12
50% covers · avg +0.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-11
54% overs · avg −0.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ USC | L 64-94 | +24.5 | L −5.5 | 163.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 8 | @SEA | W 73-71 | +10.5 | W +12.5 | 164.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 12 | @ CSU | L 79-93 | +18.5 | W +4.5 | 165.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 14 | @ MONT | L 82-90 | +7.5 | L −0.5 | 168.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 20 | @ UTAH | W 92-85 | +14.5 | W +21.5 | 167.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 24 | @ NAU | L 87-93 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 164.5 | O 180 |
| Nov 25 | vs SEMO | L 68-84 | +1.5 | L −14.5 | 170.5 | U 152 |
| Dec 4 | @CSUF | W 94-91 | +1.5 | W +4.5 | 177.5 | O 185 |
| Dec 6 | vsUCR | L 84-88 | -5.5 | L −9.5 | 162.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 16 | vs MTST | L 80-83 | +2.5 | L −0.5 | 159.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 19 | @ UCLA | L 87-108 | +24.5 | W +3.5 | 161.5 | O 195 |
| Dec 21 | vs IDHO | L 80-83 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 167.5 | U 163 |
| Jan 1 | vsUCSD | W 67-65 | +8.5 | W +10.5 | 174.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 3 | @LBSU | L 66-74 | +2.5 | L −5.5 | 162.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 8 | @CSUN | L 90-95 | +6.5 | W +1.5 | 175.5 | O 185 |
| Jan 10 | vsUCD | W 84-78 | +1.5 | W +7.5 | 168.5 | U 162 |
| Jan 15 | vsHAW | L 66-86 | +5.5 | L −14.5 | 160.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 22 | @UCSB | L 67-107 | +8.5 | L −31.5 | 159.5 | O 174 |
| Jan 24 | vsCSUF | L 78-93 | +1.5 | L −13.5 | 173.5 | U 171 |
| Jan 29 | @CSUB | W 104-79 | -1.5 | W +23.5 | 161.5 | O 183 |
| Jan 31 | @UCR | W 94-87 | +1.5 | W +8.5 | 162.5 | O 181 |
| Feb 5 | vsCSUN | L 96-97 | +2.5 | W +1.5 | 177.5 | O 193 |
| Feb 7 | @UCD | L 58-67 | +5.5 | L −3.5 | 169.5 | U 125 |
| Feb 12 | vsUCI | W 79-73 | +5.5 | W +11.5 | 161.5 | U 152 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@USC
USCL 64-94
−5.5
8
@SEA
SEAW 73-71
+12.5
12
@CSU
CSUL 79-93
+4.5
14
@MONT
MONTL 82-90
−0.5
20
@UTAH
UTAHW 92-85
+21.5
24
@NAU
NAUL 87-93
−7.5
25
vsSEMO
SEMOL 68-84
−14.5
4
@CSUF
CSUFW 94-91
+4.5
6
vsUCR
UCRL 84-88
−9.5
16
vsMTST
MTSTL 80-83
−0.5
19
@UCLA
UCLAL 87-108
+3.5
21
vsIDHO
IDHOL 80-83
−1.5
1
vsUCSD
UCSDW 67-65
+10.5
3
@LBSU
LBSUL 66-74
−5.5
8
@CSUN
CSUNL 90-95
+1.5
10
vsUCD
UCDW 84-78
+7.5
15
vsHAW
HAWL 66-86
−14.5
22
@UCSB
UCSBL 67-107
−31.5
24
vsCSUF
CSUFL 78-93
−13.5
29
@CSUB
CSUBW 104-79
+23.5
31
@UCR
UCRW 94-87
+8.5
5
vsCSUN
CSUNL 96-97
+1.5
7
@UCD
UCDL 58-67
−3.5
12
vsUCI
UCIW 79-73
+11.5
covered 12didn’t cover 12avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@USC
USCL 64-94
−5.5
8
@SEA
SEAW 73-71
−20.5
12
@CSU
CSUL 79-93
+6.5
14
@MONT
MONTL 82-90
+3.5
20
@UTAH
UTAHW 92-85
+9.5
24
@NAU
NAUL 87-93
+15.5
25
vsSEMO
SEMOL 68-84
−18.5
4
@CSUF
CSUFW 94-91
+7.5
6
vsUCR
UCRL 84-88
+9.5
16
vsMTST
MTSTL 80-83
+3.5
19
@UCLA
UCLAL 87-108
+33.5
21
vsIDHO
IDHOL 80-83
−4.5
1
vsUCSD
UCSDW 67-65
−42.5
3
@LBSU
LBSUL 66-74
−22.5
8
@CSUN
CSUNL 90-95
+9.5
10
vsUCD
UCDW 84-78
−6.5
15
vsHAW
HAWL 66-86
−8.5
22
@UCSB
UCSBL 67-107
+14.5
24
vsCSUF
CSUFL 78-93
−2.5
29
@CSUB
CSUBW 104-79
+21.5
31
@UCR
UCRW 94-87
+18.5
5
vsCSUN
CSUNL 96-97
+15.5
7
@UCD
UCDL 58-67
−44.5
12
vsUCI
UCIW 79-73
−9.5
over 13under 11avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Santa Barbara
15-8 overall · 10-4 in conference · Big West Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ UC Riverside76–68
- Wvs UC Irvine84–79
- L@ UC Davis75–85
- Wvs Fullerton83–69
- W@ UC San Diego62–48
2 days since their last game.
Cal Poly
8-16 overall · 6-8 in conference · Big West Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs UC Irvine79–73
- L@ UC Davis58–67
- Lvs CSU Northridge96–97
- W@ UC Riverside94–87
- W@ Bakersfield104–79
2 days since their last game.