Reed Green Coliseum · at Southern Miss · Conference game
Closing line
TROY -5.5✓ USM covered by 9.5
TROY -5.5✓ USM covered by 9.5Closing total144.5Under by 10.5
| TROY | This season | USM |
|---|---|---|
| 15-9 | Record | 11-14 |
| 15-9 | ATS | 10-15 |
| 12-12 | O/U | 14-11 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: TROY 78–74 USM · ✗ TROY (62%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TROY | 26 | 39 | 65 |
| USM | 26 | 43 | 69 |
1st half: TROY 26, USM 26 (tied). The model had TROY by 2.3 and a total of 71.2 (actual 52).
Team stats
| TROY | USM | |
|---|---|---|
| 25-56 45% | Field goals | 27-67 40% |
| 6-22 27% | 3-pointers | 2-12 17% |
| 9-16 56% | Free throws | 13-16 81% |
| 38 13 off | Rebounds | 40 18 off |
| 15 | Assists | 10 |
| 4 | Steals | 10 |
| 7 | Blocks | 8 |
| 15 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 17 | Fouls | 13 |
| 38 | Points in paint | 46 |
| 3 | Fast-break points | 21 |
Players
| TROY | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Dowd F | 38 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 4-11 | 1-5 |
| Cooper Campbell G | 34 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 3-9 | 0-2 |
| Victor Valdes F | 30 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 4-9 | 0-2 |
| Cobi Campbell G | 22 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Theo Seng F | 20 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 4-7 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jerrell Bellamy C | 22 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 4-7 | 0-1 |
| Austin Cross G | 22 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 3-7 | 3-7 |
| Kerrington Kiel F | 12 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
Did not play: Hikaru Awata, Emmanuel Clarton, Javen Colbert, Javier Gilgeous-Glasgow, Evan Griffin, Kameryn Mitchell, Corbin Green
| USM | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tylik Weeks F | 39 | 32 | 4 | 0 | 11-20 | 0-1 |
| Dylan Brumfield G | 38 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Isaac Taveras G | 33 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 5-16 | 0-1 |
| Djahi Binet F | 32 | 14 | 18 | 1 | 7-13 | 0-0 |
| Israel Hart G | 19 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0-4 | 0-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Curt Lewis G | 21 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 3-8 | 2-5 |
| Dalyn Brandon G | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Tegra Izay C | 8 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Chiante' Tramble G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Chandler Watts, Felipe Patino, Jett Montgomery, Brewer Carruth, EJ Paymon, Blake Lander, Fallou Diagne, Robert Cowherd, IJ Ezuma
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenTROY -4.5
1 → TROY
CloseTROY -5.5
1 pt toward TROY
Total
Open144.5
no move
Close144.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
TROY -218 · USM +180
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened TROY -4.5 · closed TROY -5.5 · moved 1 toward TROYmodel TROY -3.5
model TROY -3.5
Opened 144.5 · unchangedmodel 152
model 152
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | TROY -5.5 | TROY -3.6 | USM +1.9 | W USM covered |
| Total | 144.5 | 152.2 | Over 7.7 | L Under |
| Projected score | — | TROY 77.9 · USM 74.3 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | TROY -2.3 | PK |
| 1H total | 71.2 | 52 |
| 1H projected score | TROY 36.7 · USM 34.5 | TROY 26 · USM 26 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TROY | 7-3 70% | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% |
| USM | 3-7 30% | 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22
TROY 4–3 USMTROY leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · TROY has won the last 3 meetings · TROY 3-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2025-26 | USM 65 @ TROY 91 | TROY -8.5 | TROY W |
| Feb 28, 2024-25 | TROY 70 @ USM 58 | USM +9.5 | TROY W |
| Jan 27, 2024-25 | USM 61 @ TROY 70 | TROY -11.5 | USM W |
| Jan 20, 2023-24 | TROY 63 @ USM 64 | USM +1.5 | USM W |
| Jan 13, 2023-24 | USM 56 @ TROY 82 | TROY -5 | TROY W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Troy
24 games played
Straight up
15-9
63% wins
Against the spread
15-9
63% covers · avg +0.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
12-12
50% overs · avg +6.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ KENT | W 103-97 | +3.5 | W +9.5 | 142.5 | O 200 |
| Nov 7 | @ FUR | W 64-61 | +2.5 | W +5.5 | 152.5 | U 125 |
| Nov 14 | @ LMU | L 63-74 | +4.5 | L −6.5 | 140.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 16 | @ CSUN | L 85-94 | -4.5 | L −13.5 | 157.5 | O 179 |
| Nov 18 | @ SDSU | W 108-107 | +14.5 | W +15.5 | 137.5 | O 215 |
| Nov 20 | @ USC | L 106-107 | +18.5 | W +17.5 | 159.5 | O 213 |
| Nov 24 | vs TOL | L 68-75 | -2.5 | L −9.5 | 159.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 26 | vs SFPA | W 74-64 | -21.5 | L −11.5 | 151.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 1 | vs WGA | L 89-93 | -17.5 | L −21.5 | 150.5 | O 182 |
| Dec 14 | @ UAB | W 86-85 | +6.5 | W +7.5 | 155.5 | O 171 |
| Dec 20 | vs MRSH | W 70-63 | -4.5 | W +2.5 | 155.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 31 | vs TXST | W 100-80 | -8.5 | W +11.5 | 145.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 3 | vs USA | W 59-49 | -9.5 | W +0.5 | 148.5 | U 108 |
| Jan 7 | @ ARST | L 74-86 | +4.5 | L −7.5 | 160.5 | U 160 |
| Jan 10 | @ UL | W 90-70 | -9.5 | W +10.5 | 136.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 14 | vsUSM | W 91-65 | -8.5 | W +17.5 | 145.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 17 | vsARST | W 99-74 | -3.5 | W +21.5 | 165.5 | O 173 |
| Jan 21 | @ ODU | W 83-77 | -5.5 | W +0.5 | 152.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 24 | @ GASO | W 83-78 | -4.5 | W +0.5 | 159.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 29 | vs JMU | L 64-73 | -9.5 | L −18.5 | 147.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 31 | vs APP | L 44-66 | -7.5 | L −29.5 | 137.5 | U 110 |
| Feb 4 | @ GAST | W 74-63 | -6.5 | W +4.5 | 144.5 | U 137 |
| Feb 7 | vs AKR | W 79-69 | +2.5 | W +12.5 | 157.5 | U 148 |
| Feb 11 | @TXST | L 62-74 | -5.5 | L −17.5 | 140.5 | U 136 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@KENT
KENTW 103-97
+9.5
7
@FUR
FURW 64-61
+5.5
14
@LMU
LMUL 63-74
−6.5
16
@CSUN
CSUNL 85-94
−13.5
18
@SDSU
SDSUW 108-107
+15.5
20
@USC
USCL 106-107
+17.5
24
vsTOL
TOLL 68-75
−9.5
26
vsSFPA
SFPAW 74-64
−11.5
1
vsWGA
WGAL 89-93
−21.5
14
@UAB
UABW 86-85
+7.5
20
vsMRSH
MRSHW 70-63
+2.5
31
vsTXST
TXSTW 100-80
+11.5
3
vsUSA
USAW 59-49
+0.5
7
@ARST
ARSTL 74-86
−7.5
10
@UL
ULW 90-70
+10.5
14
vsUSM
USMW 91-65
+17.5
17
vsARST
ARSTW 99-74
+21.5
21
@ODU
ODUW 83-77
+0.5
24
@GASO
GASOW 83-78
+0.5
29
vsJMU
JMUL 64-73
−18.5
31
vsAPP
APPL 44-66
−29.5
4
@GAST
GASTW 74-63
+4.5
7
vsAKR
AKRW 79-69
+12.5
11
@TXST
TXSTL 62-74
−17.5
covered 15didn’t cover 9avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@KENT
KENTW 103-97
+57.5
7
@FUR
FURW 64-61
−27.5
14
@LMU
LMUL 63-74
−3.5
16
@CSUN
CSUNL 85-94
+21.5
18
@SDSU
SDSUW 108-107
+77.5
20
@USC
USCL 106-107
+53.5
24
vsTOL
TOLL 68-75
−16.5
26
vsSFPA
SFPAW 74-64
−13.5
1
vsWGA
WGAL 89-93
+31.5
14
@UAB
UABW 86-85
+15.5
20
vsMRSH
MRSHW 70-63
−22.5
31
vsTXST
TXSTW 100-80
+34.5
3
vsUSA
USAW 59-49
−40.5
7
@ARST
ARSTL 74-86
−0.5
10
@UL
ULW 90-70
+23.5
14
vsUSM
USMW 91-65
+10.5
17
vsARST
ARSTW 99-74
+7.5
21
@ODU
ODUW 83-77
+7.5
24
@GASO
GASOW 83-78
+1.5
29
vsJMU
JMUL 64-73
−10.5
31
vsAPP
APPL 44-66
−27.5
4
@GAST
GASTW 74-63
−7.5
7
vsAKR
AKRW 79-69
−9.5
11
@TXST
TXSTL 62-74
−4.5
over 12under 12avg +6.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Southern Miss
25 games played
Straight up
11-14
44% wins
Against the spread
10-15
40% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
14-11
56% overs · avg +1.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ BUF | L 79-85 | +3.5 | L −2.5 | 153.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 9 | @ SC | L 79-83 | +17.5 | W +13.5 | 147.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 13 | @ GRAM | L 70-75 | +2.5 | L −2.5 | 148.5 | U 145 |
| Nov 22 | vs UNF | W 92-83 | -9.5 | L −0.5 | 154.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 23 | vs UTM | W 70-60 | +1.5 | W +11.5 | 146.5 | U 130 |
| Dec 3 | @ RAD | W 82-75 | +3.5 | W +10.5 | 152.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 6 | @ MIA | L 64-88 | +19.5 | L −4.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 8 | vsGRAM | W 68-60 | -8.5 | L −0.5 | 142.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 13 | vs MISS | L 67-71 | +12.5 | W +8.5 | 138.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 18 | vsUL | W 62-54 | -11.5 | L −3.5 | 132.5 | U 116 |
| Dec 20 | vsARST | L 86-93 | +1.5 | L −5.5 | 155.5 | O 179 |
| Dec 29 | @ LSU | L 62-90 | +21.5 | L −6.5 | 154.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 1 | @ ULM | W 87-73 | -9.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 3 | @UL | W 74-67 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 129.5 | O 141 |
| Jan 8 | vsTXST | W 80-70 | -2.5 | W +7.5 | 144.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 10 | vsULM | W 70-60 | -14.5 | L −4.5 | 155.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 14 | @TROY | L 65-91 | +8.5 | L −17.5 | 145.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 17 | @TXST | L 67-74 | +2.5 | L −4.5 | 140.5 | O 141 |
| Jan 22 | @GAST | L 62-69 | +1.5 | L −5.5 | 144.5 | U 131 |
| Jan 24 | @ CCU | L 67-85 | +2.5 | L −15.5 | 141.5 | O 152 |
| Jan 29 | vsAPP | L 63-70 | +1.5 | L −5.5 | 134.5 | U 133 |
| Jan 31 | vsJMU | W 73-65 | -1.5 | W +6.5 | 143.5 | U 138 |
| Feb 4 | @MRSH | L 77-81 | +10.5 | W +6.5 | 148.5 | O 158 |
| Feb 7 | vsKENT | W 66-65 | +4.5 | W +5.5 | 150.5 | U 131 |
| Feb 12 | vsUSA | L 78-84 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 135.5 | O 162 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@BUF
BUFL 79-85
−2.5
9
@SC
SCL 79-83
+13.5
13
@GRAM
GRAML 70-75
−2.5
22
vsUNF
UNFW 92-83
−0.5
23
vsUTM
UTMW 70-60
+11.5
3
@RAD
RADW 82-75
+10.5
6
@MIA
MIAL 64-88
−4.5
8
vsGRAM
GRAMW 68-60
−0.5
13
vsMISS
MISSL 67-71
+8.5
18
vsUL
ULW 62-54
−3.5
20
vsARST
ARSTL 86-93
−5.5
29
@LSU
LSUL 62-90
−6.5
1
@ULM
ULMW 87-73
+4.5
3
@UL
ULW 74-67
+3.5
8
vsTXST
TXSTW 80-70
+7.5
10
vsULM
ULMW 70-60
−4.5
14
@TROY
TROYL 65-91
−17.5
17
@TXST
TXSTL 67-74
−4.5
22
@GAST
GASTL 62-69
−5.5
24
@CCU
CCUL 67-85
−15.5
29
vsAPP
APPL 63-70
−5.5
31
vsJMU
JMUW 73-65
+6.5
4
@MRSH
MRSHL 77-81
+6.5
7
vsKENT
KENTW 66-65
+5.5
12
vsUSA
USAL 78-84
−7.5
covered 10didn’t cover 15avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@BUF
BUFL 79-85
+10.5
9
@SC
SCL 79-83
+14.5
13
@GRAM
GRAML 70-75
−3.5
22
vsUNF
UNFW 92-83
+20.5
23
vsUTM
UTMW 70-60
−16.5
3
@RAD
RADW 82-75
+4.5
6
@MIA
MIAL 64-88
+6.5
8
vsGRAM
GRAMW 68-60
−14.5
13
vsMISS
MISSL 67-71
−0.5
18
vsUL
ULW 62-54
−16.5
20
vsARST
ARSTL 86-93
+23.5
29
@LSU
LSUL 62-90
−2.5
1
@ULM
ULMW 87-73
+7.5
3
@UL
ULW 74-67
+11.5
8
vsTXST
TXSTW 80-70
+5.5
10
vsULM
ULMW 70-60
−25.5
14
@TROY
TROYL 65-91
+10.5
17
@TXST
TXSTL 67-74
+0.5
22
@GAST
GASTL 62-69
−13.5
24
@CCU
CCUL 67-85
+10.5
29
vsAPP
APPL 63-70
−1.5
31
vsJMU
JMUW 73-65
−5.5
4
@MRSH
MRSHL 77-81
+9.5
7
vsKENT
KENTW 66-65
−19.5
12
vsUSA
USAL 78-84
+26.5
over 14under 11avg +1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Troy
15-9 overall · 9-4 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Texas St62–74
- Wvs Akron79–69
- W@ Georgia St74–63
- Lvs App State44–66
- Lvs James Madison64–73
3 days since their last game.
Southern Miss
11-14 overall · 6-8 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs South Alabama78–84
- Wvs Kent State66–65
- L@ Marshall77–81
- Wvs James Madison73–65
- Lvs App State63–70
2 days since their last game.