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NCAAB · Sat, Nov 21

W Carolina @ Wake Forest

LJVM Coliseum · at Wake Forest
#215WCUW Carolina
@
#89WAKEWake Forest
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
WCUThis seasonWAKE
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects WAKE 84–69 · win probability WAKE 91%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 153.4
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: WAKE has more of the edges

WCU 1, WAKE 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
WCUBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: WCU 35.4%, WAKE 30.1%. Defensive: WCU 73.7%, WAKE 67.0%
WAKEBig
WAKE offense vs WCU defense
Offense 80th of 366 against a defense 256th, on the model’s ratings
WAKEBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: WCU 16.7%, WAKE 15.5%. Forced: WCU 14.6%, WAKE 17.7%
WAKEBig
Three-pointers
WCU hits 33.5% and allows 36.7%; WAKE hits 34.1% and allows 32.9%. Threes are 40.9% and 43.6% of their shots
WAKEBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: WCU 50.5 and allows 54.9; WAKE 52.7 and allows 51.8
Context
Schedule so far
WCU has played the 177th-hardest schedule, WAKE the 64th. A record against a soft schedule means less
WAKESmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: WCU 31.3, WAKE 35.2. Allowed: WCU 37.8, WAKE 35.7
WAKESmall
WCU offense vs WAKE defense
Offense 171st of 366 against a defense 96th, on the model’s ratings
WAKESmall
Home court
WAKE at home. This season: WAKE 0-0 at home, WCU 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: WCU plays 69.3 a game (162nd fastest), WAKE 70.2 (112th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: WCU 16%, WAKE 9%. Transfers in: WCU 6, WAKE 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—WAKE -15.3—
Total—153.4—
Projected score—WCU 69 · WAKE 84.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadWAKE -9.0—
1H total71.7—
1H projected scoreWCU 31.4 · WAKE 40.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

W Carolina has the better starters

Position by position: W Carolina 2, Wake Forest 1, even 2
W CarolinaBetterWake Forest
G M. Brown TR11.9 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.9 ast Score 48
WAKEBig
G K. Kennedy TR18.4 pts · 4.6 reb · 4.2 ast Score 91
G I. Manning TR9.6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 64
Even
G J. Ray TR11.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 56
G T. Bryson TR8.6 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 70
WCUSmall
G J. McDowell TR3.3 pts · 1.6 reb · 1.1 ast Score 40
G J. Prunty TR3.9 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.9 ast Score 20
Even
F R. Nyeri TR8.4 pts · 6.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 34
F S. Dada6.2 pts · 7.4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 77
WCUSmall
F X. Pintelon TR5.9 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 47
W CarolinaBetterWake Forest
WCU offense171st of 366 · -5.2
WAKESmall
WAKE defense96th of 366 · -0.5
WCU defense256th of 366 · -6.7
WAKEBig
WAKE offense80th of 366 · +0.5
Backcourt-1.7 · 4 players
WAKEBig
Backcourt+2.2 · 3 players
Frontcourt+1.1 · 1 player
WCUSmall
Frontcourt-1.6 · 2 players
Bench-1.5 · 4 players
Even
Bench-1.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestWCU betterWAKE betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
W Carolina
Guards
M. Brown31 min · TRI. Manning20 min · TRT. Bryson18 min · TRJ. Prunty16 min · TRJ. Roberts8 min · TRD. Hollifield2 min
Forwards
S. Dada20 minT. Smith10 minD. Raymond6 min · TRF. SodipoNew
Wake Forest
Guards
K. Kennedy37 min · TRJ. Ray29 min · TRJ. McDowell17 min · TRI. Carr13 minA. Beard2 minW. Underwood2 min
Forwards
R. Nyeri26 min · TRX. Pintelon18 min · TRV. Ricchiuti2 minJ. AbsonNewV. ChaudhriNewG. PlacideNew
Centers
A. Dorn9 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
WCUWAKE
Scoring
76.3 #134Points per game78.8 #83
1.10 #140Points per possession1.12 #94
69.3 #162Pace (possessions)70.2 #112
Shooting
50.5 #218Effective FG%52.7 #117
33.5 #1983-point %34.1 #166
40.9 #1473-point attempt rate43.6 #99
31.3 #274Free throw rate35.2 #170
Possessions
16.7 #179Turnover rate15.5 #107
35.4 #36Offensive rebound rate30.1 #196
12.0 #286Assists per game14.4 #123
Defense
79.0 #299Points allowed76.9 #239
1.14 #307Points allowed per possession1.10 #214
54.9 #327Opponent effective FG%51.8 #202
36.7 #337Opponent 3-point %32.9 #117
14.6 #318Turnovers forced17.7 #114
73.7 #22Defensive rebound rate67.0 #298
5.8 #266Steals per game7.7 #59
2.4 #315Blocks per game3.5 #136
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

W Carolina

13-16 in 2025-26 overall · 11-9 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs ETSU67–69
  • Wvs Mercer77–73
  • Wvs Furman86–67
  • Wvs Mercer78–74
  • W@ VMI81–62

A week or more of rest.

Wake Forest

18-17 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Illinois St75–78
  • Wvs Navy82–72
  • Lvs Clemson62–71
  • Wvs Virginia Tech95–89
  • Wvs California80–73

A week or more of rest.