Xfinity Mobile Arena · Neutral site · NCAA Tournament
Closing line
CONN -5.5✓ CONN covered by 10.5
CONN -5.5✓ CONN covered by 10.5Closing total135.5Under by 5.5
 UCLA | This season | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| 24-11 | Record | 30-5 |
| 17-18 | ATS | 12-23 |
| 17-18 | O/U | 18-17 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: UCLA 68–73 CONN · ✓ CONN (66%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UCLA | 33 | 24 | 57 |
| CONN | 38 | 35 | 73 |
1st half: UCLA 33, CONN 38 (CONN by 5). The model had CONN by 2.6 and a total of 66.1 (actual 71).
Team stats
| UCLA | CONN | |
|---|---|---|
| 19-49 39% | Field goals | 23-49 47% |
| 5-13 38% | 3-pointers | 8-24 33% |
| 14-21 67% | Free throws | 19-21 90% |
| 24 8 off | Rebounds | 36 11 off |
| 14 | Assists | 16 |
| 4 | Steals | 7 |
| 1 | Blocks | 5 |
| 11 | Turnovers | 16 |
| 17 | Fouls | 20 |
| 20 | Points in paint | 30 |
| 8 | Fast-break points | 8 |
Players
| UCLA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan Dent G | 37 | 11 | 2 | 10 | 2-9 | 1-3 |
| Skyy Clark G | 34 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 5-8 | 1-3 |
| Xavier Booker C | 33 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 4-7 | 2-3 |
| Trent Perry G | 32 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2-8 | 0-2 |
| Eric Dailey Jr. F | 27 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 5-12 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Eric Freeny G | 12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Brandon Williams F | 10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Steven Jamerson II F | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Jamar Brown G | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Jack Seidler G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Evan Manjikian, Tyler Bilodeau, Christian Horry, Anthony Peoples Jr., Markell Alston
| CONN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Karaban F | 36 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 9-16 | 4-8 |
| Malachi Smith G | 32 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Braylon Mullins G | 32 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 5-9 | 2-6 |
| Tarris Reed Jr. C | 29 | 10 | 13 | 2 | 3-8 | 0-0 |
| Solo Ball G | 13 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jayden Ross F | 22 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 3-4 | 2-3 |
| Silas Demary Jr. G | 21 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Eric Reibe C | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Dwayne Koroma F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Alec Millender G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jacob Furphy G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Uros Paunovic G | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jacob Ross, Jaylin Stewart, Rrezon Elezaj
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketCONN -5.5
ModelCONN -4.6
Model edgeUCLA +0.9
L CONN covered
Total
Market135.5
Model141.2
Model edgeOver 5.7
L Under
Projected score
UCLA 68.3 · CONN 72.9
UCLA 57 · CONN 73
Win probability
CONN 66%
1st half
Spread
CONN -2.6
CONN -5.0
Total
66.1
71 points
Projected score
UCLA 31.7 · CONN 34.3
UCLA 33 · CONN 38
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenCONN -4.5
1 → CONN
CloseCONN -5.5
1 pt toward CONN
Total
Open139.5
▼ 4
Close135.5
Down 4 since the open
Moneyline
UCLA +190 · CONN -230
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened CONN -4.5 · closed CONN -5.5 · moved 1 toward CONNmodel CONN -4.5
model CONN -4.5
Opened 139.5 · closed 135.5 · moved 4 downmodel 141
model 141
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UCLA | 7-3 70% | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% |
| CONN | 7-3 70% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
UCLA
35 games played
Straight up
24-11
69% wins
Against the spread
17-18
49% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
17-18
49% overs · avg +2.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs EWU | W 80-74 | -29.5 | L −23.5 | 149.5 | O 154 |
| Nov 7 | vs PEPP | W 74-63 | -29.5 | L −18.5 | 152.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 10 | vs WGA | W 83-62 | -30.5 | L −9.5 | 146.5 | U 145 |
| Nov 14 | vs ARIZ | L 65-69 | +1.5 | L −2.5 | 153.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 18 | vs SAC | W 79-48 | -27.5 | W +3.5 | 146.5 | U 127 |
| Nov 21 | vs PRES | W 86-46 | -25.5 | W +14.5 | 131.5 | O 132 |
| Nov 25 | vs CAL | L 72-80 | -7.5 | L −15.5 | 143.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 3 | @ WASH | W 82-80 | -2.5 | L −0.5 | 141.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 6 | vs ORE | W 74-63 | -8.5 | W +2.5 | 146.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 13 | vs GONZ | L 72-82 | +10.5 | W +0.5 | 147.5 | O 154 |
| Dec 17 | vs ASU | W 90-77 | -9.5 | W +3.5 | 142.5 | O 167 |
| Dec 19 | vs CP | W 108-87 | -24.5 | L −3.5 | 161.5 | O 195 |
| Dec 23 | vs UCR | W 97-65 | -24.5 | W +7.5 | 148.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 3 | @ IOWA | L 61-74 | +6.5 | L −6.5 | 140.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 6 | @ WIS | L 72-80 | +3.5 | L −4.5 | 152.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 10 | vs MD | W 67-55 | -13.5 | L −1.5 | 147.5 | U 122 |
| Jan 14 | @ PSU | W 71-60 | -4.5 | W +6.5 | 148.5 | U 131 |
| Jan 17 | @ OSU | L 74-86 | +4.5 | L −7.5 | 146.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 20 | vs PUR | W 69-67 | +5.5 | W +7.5 | 147.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 24 | vs NU | W 71-64 | -7.5 | L −0.5 | 143.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 28 | @ORE | W 73-57 | -4.5 | W +11.5 | 136.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 31 | vs IU | L 97-98 | -3.5 | L −4.5 | 144.5 | O 195 |
| Feb 3 | vs RUTG | W 98-66 | -13.5 | W +18.5 | 142.5 | O 164 |
| Feb 7 | vsWASH | W 77-73 | -4.5 | L −0.5 | 144.5 | O 150 |
| Feb 14 | @ MICH | L 56-86 | +15.5 | L −14.5 | 156.5 | U 142 |
| Feb 17 | @ MSU | L 59-82 | +8.5 | L −14.5 | 139.5 | O 141 |
| Feb 21 | vs ILL | W 95-94 | +6.5 | W +7.5 | 146.5 | O 189 |
| Feb 24 | vs USC | W 81-62 | -6.5 | W +12.5 | 150.5 | U 143 |
| Feb 28 | @ MINN | L 73-78 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 136.5 | O 151 |
| Mar 3 | vs NEB | W 72-52 | -1.5 | W +18.5 | 144.5 | U 124 |
| Mar 7 | @USC | W 89-68 | -4.5 | W +16.5 | 151.5 | O 157 |
| Mar 12 | vsRUTG | W 72-59 | -10.5 | W +2.5 | 141.5 | U 131 |
| Mar 13 | vsMSU | W 88-84 | +5.5 | W +9.5 | 141.5 | O 172 |
| Mar 14 | vsPUR | L 66-73 | +7.5 | W +0.5 | 143.5 | U 139 |
| Mar 20 | vs UCF | W 75-71 | -5.5 | L −1.5 | 151.5 | U 146 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsEWU
EWUW 80-74
−23.5
7
vsPEPP
PEPPW 74-63
−18.5
10
vsWGA
WGAW 83-62
−9.5
14
vsARIZ
ARIZL 65-69
−2.5
18
vsSAC
SACW 79-48
+3.5
21
vsPRES
PRESW 86-46
+14.5
25
vsCAL
CALL 72-80
−15.5
3
@WASH
WASHW 82-80
−0.5
6
vsORE
OREW 74-63
+2.5
13
vsGONZ
GONZL 72-82
+0.5
17
vsASU
ASUW 90-77
+3.5
19
vsCP
CPW 108-87
−3.5
23
vsUCR
UCRW 97-65
+7.5
3
@IOWA
IOWAL 61-74
−6.5
6
@WIS
WISL 72-80
−4.5
10
vsMD
MDW 67-55
−1.5
14
@PSU
PSUW 71-60
+6.5
17
@OSU
OSUL 74-86
−7.5
20
vsPUR
PURW 69-67
+7.5
24
vsNU
NUW 71-64
−0.5
28
@ORE
OREW 73-57
+11.5
31
vsIU
IUL 97-98
−4.5
3
vsRUTG
RUTGW 98-66
+18.5
7
vsWASH
WASHW 77-73
−0.5
14
@MICH
MICHL 56-86
−14.5
17
@MSU
MSUL 59-82
−14.5
21
vsILL
ILLW 95-94
+7.5
24
vsUSC
USCW 81-62
+12.5
28
@MINN
MINNL 73-78
−6.5
3
vsNEB
NEBW 72-52
+18.5
7
@USC
USCW 89-68
+16.5
12
vsRUTG
RUTGW 72-59
+2.5
13
vsMSU
MSUW 88-84
+9.5
14
vsPUR
PURL 66-73
+0.5
20
vsUCF
UCFW 75-71
−1.5
covered 17didn’t cover 18avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsEWU
EWUW 80-74
+4.5
7
vsPEPP
PEPPW 74-63
−15.5
10
vsWGA
WGAW 83-62
−1.5
14
vsARIZ
ARIZL 65-69
−19.5
18
vsSAC
SACW 79-48
−19.5
21
vsPRES
PRESW 86-46
+0.5
25
vsCAL
CALL 72-80
+8.5
3
@WASH
WASHW 82-80
+20.5
6
vsORE
OREW 74-63
−9.5
13
vsGONZ
GONZL 72-82
+6.5
17
vsASU
ASUW 90-77
+24.5
19
vsCP
CPW 108-87
+33.5
23
vsUCR
UCRW 97-65
+13.5
3
@IOWA
IOWAL 61-74
−5.5
6
@WIS
WISL 72-80
−0.5
10
vsMD
MDW 67-55
−25.5
14
@PSU
PSUW 71-60
−17.5
17
@OSU
OSUL 74-86
+13.5
20
vsPUR
PURW 69-67
−11.5
24
vsNU
NUW 71-64
−8.5
28
@ORE
OREW 73-57
−6.5
31
vsIU
IUL 97-98
+50.5
3
vsRUTG
RUTGW 98-66
+21.5
7
vsWASH
WASHW 77-73
+5.5
14
@MICH
MICHL 56-86
−14.5
17
@MSU
MSUL 59-82
+1.5
21
vsILL
ILLW 95-94
+42.5
24
vsUSC
USCW 81-62
−7.5
28
@MINN
MINNL 73-78
+14.5
3
vsNEB
NEBW 72-52
−20.5
7
@USC
USCW 89-68
+5.5
12
vsRUTG
RUTGW 72-59
−10.5
13
vsMSU
MSUW 88-84
+30.5
14
vsPUR
PURL 66-73
−4.5
20
vsUCF
UCFW 75-71
−5.5
over 17under 18avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
UConn
35 games played
Straight up
30-5
86% wins
Against the spread
12-23
34% covers · avg −2.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
18-17
51% overs · avg −1.1 pts vs the total
Against the spread
12-2334%
2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs NHVN | W 79-55 | -42.5 | L −18.5 | 145.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 7 | vs UML | W 110-47 | -36.5 | W +26.5 | 151.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 10 | vs COLU | W 89-62 | -32.5 | L −5.5 | 155.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 15 | vs BYU | W 86-84 | -6.5 | L −4.5 | 156.5 | O 170 |
| Nov 19 | vsARIZ | L 67-71 | -4.5 | L −8.5 | 156.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 23 | vs BRY | W 72-49 | -36.5 | L −13.5 | 147.5 | U 121 |
| Nov 28 | vsILL | W 74-61 | -4.5 | W +8.5 | 150.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 2 | @ KU | W 61-56 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 141.5 | U 117 |
| Dec 5 | vs ETAM | W 83-59 | -36.5 | L −12.5 | 141.5 | O 142 |
| Dec 9 | vs FLA | W 77-73 | -4.5 | L −0.5 | 145.5 | O 150 |
| Dec 12 | vs TEX | W 71-63 | -11.5 | L −3.5 | 145.5 | U 134 |
| Dec 16 | vs BTLR | W 79-60 | -15.5 | W +3.5 | 144.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 21 | @ DEP | W 72-54 | -12.5 | W +5.5 | 133.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 31 | @ XAV | W 90-67 | -11.5 | W +11.5 | 144.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 4 | vs MARQ | W 73-57 | -17.5 | L −1.5 | 144.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 7 | @ PROV | W 103-98 | -9.5 | L −4.5 | 152.5 | O 201 |
| Jan 10 | vsDEP | W 72-60 | -19.5 | L −7.5 | 137.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 13 | @ HALL | W 69-64 | -6.5 | L −1.5 | 132.5 | O 133 |
| Jan 17 | @ GTWN | W 64-62 | -11.5 | L −9.5 | 141.5 | U 126 |
| Jan 24 | vs VILL | W 75-67 | -11.5 | L −3.5 | 137.5 | O 142 |
| Jan 27 | vsPROV | W 87-81 | -15.5 | L −9.5 | 152.5 | O 168 |
| Jan 31 | @ CREI | W 85-58 | -6.5 | W +20.5 | 142.5 | O 143 |
| Feb 3 | vsXAV | W 92-60 | -16.5 | W +15.5 | 147.5 | O 152 |
| Feb 6 | @ SJU | L 72-81 | -1.5 | L −10.5 | 143.5 | O 153 |
| Feb 11 | @BTLR | W 80-70 | -11.5 | L −1.5 | 143.5 | O 150 |
| Feb 14 | vsGTWN | W 79-75 | -16.5 | L −12.5 | 138.5 | O 154 |
| Feb 18 | vsCREI | L 84-91 | -15.5 | L −22.5 | 143.5 | O 175 |
| Feb 21 | @VILL | W 73-63 | -3.5 | W +6.5 | 141.5 | U 136 |
| Feb 25 | vsSJU | W 72-40 | -5.5 | W +26.5 | 145.5 | U 112 |
| Feb 28 | vsHALL | W 71-67 | -12.5 | L −8.5 | 130.5 | O 138 |
| Mar 7 | @MARQ | L 62-68 | -9.5 | L −15.5 | 143.5 | U 130 |
| Mar 12 | vsXAV | W 93-68 | -17.5 | W +7.5 | 150.5 | O 161 |
| Mar 13 | vsGTWN | W 67-51 | -14.5 | W +1.5 | 138.5 | U 118 |
| Mar 14 | @SJU | L 52-72 | -2.5 | L −22.5 | 139.5 | U 124 |
| Mar 20 | vs FUR | W 82-71 | -20.5 | L −9.5 | 133.5 | O 153 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsNHVN
NHVNW 79-55
−18.5
7
vsUML
UMLW 110-47
+26.5
10
vsCOLU
COLUW 89-62
−5.5
15
vsBYU
BYUW 86-84
−4.5
19
vsARIZ
ARIZL 67-71
−8.5
23
vsBRY
BRYW 72-49
−13.5
28
vsILL
ILLW 74-61
+8.5
2
@KU
KUW 61-56
+1.5
5
vsETAM
ETAMW 83-59
−12.5
9
vsFLA
FLAW 77-73
−0.5
12
vsTEX
TEXW 71-63
−3.5
16
vsBTLR
BTLRW 79-60
+3.5
21
@DEP
DEPW 72-54
+5.5
31
@XAV
XAVW 90-67
+11.5
4
vsMARQ
MARQW 73-57
−1.5
7
@PROV
PROVW 103-98
−4.5
10
vsDEP
DEPW 72-60
−7.5
13
@HALL
HALLW 69-64
−1.5
17
@GTWN
GTWNW 64-62
−9.5
24
vsVILL
VILLW 75-67
−3.5
27
vsPROV
PROVW 87-81
−9.5
31
@CREI
CREIW 85-58
+20.5
3
vsXAV
XAVW 92-60
+15.5
6
@SJU
SJUL 72-81
−10.5
11
@BTLR
BTLRW 80-70
−1.5
14
vsGTWN
GTWNW 79-75
−12.5
18
vsCREI
CREIL 84-91
−22.5
21
@VILL
VILLW 73-63
+6.5
25
vsSJU
SJUW 72-40
+26.5
28
vsHALL
HALLW 71-67
−8.5
7
@MARQ
MARQL 62-68
−15.5
12
vsXAV
XAVW 93-68
+7.5
13
vsGTWN
GTWNW 67-51
+1.5
14
@SJU
SJUL 52-72
−22.5
20
vsFUR
FURW 82-71
−9.5
covered 12didn’t cover 23avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsNHVN
NHVNW 79-55
−11.5
7
vsUML
UMLW 110-47
+5.5
10
vsCOLU
COLUW 89-62
−4.5
15
vsBYU
BYUW 86-84
+13.5
19
vsARIZ
ARIZL 67-71
−18.5
23
vsBRY
BRYW 72-49
−26.5
28
vsILL
ILLW 74-61
−15.5
2
@KU
KUW 61-56
−24.5
5
vsETAM
ETAMW 83-59
+0.5
9
vsFLA
FLAW 77-73
+4.5
12
vsTEX
TEXW 71-63
−11.5
16
vsBTLR
BTLRW 79-60
−5.5
21
@DEP
DEPW 72-54
−7.5
31
@XAV
XAVW 90-67
+12.5
4
vsMARQ
MARQW 73-57
−14.5
7
@PROV
PROVW 103-98
+48.5
10
vsDEP
DEPW 72-60
−5.5
13
@HALL
HALLW 69-64
+0.5
17
@GTWN
GTWNW 64-62
−15.5
24
vsVILL
VILLW 75-67
+4.5
27
vsPROV
PROVW 87-81
+15.5
31
@CREI
CREIW 85-58
+0.5
3
vsXAV
XAVW 92-60
+4.5
6
@SJU
SJUL 72-81
+9.5
11
@BTLR
BTLRW 80-70
+6.5
14
vsGTWN
GTWNW 79-75
+15.5
18
vsCREI
CREIL 84-91
+31.5
21
@VILL
VILLW 73-63
−5.5
25
vsSJU
SJUW 72-40
−33.5
28
vsHALL
HALLW 71-67
+7.5
7
@MARQ
MARQL 62-68
−13.5
12
vsXAV
XAVW 93-68
+10.5
13
vsGTWN
GTWNW 67-51
−20.5
14
@SJU
SJUL 52-72
−15.5
20
vsFUR
FURW 82-71
+19.5
over 18under 17avg −1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
UCLA
24-11 overall · 15-8 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs UCF75–71
- Lvs Purdue66–73
- Wvs Michigan St88–84
- Wvs Rutgers72–59
- W@ USC89–68
2 days since their last game.
UConn
30-5 overall · 19-4 in conference · Big East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Furman82–71
- L@ St John's52–72
- Wvs Georgetown67–51
- Wvs Xavier93–68
- L@ Marquette62–68
2 days since their last game.