Pensacola Bay Center · Neutral site · Conference game · Conference tournament
Closing line
TXST -1.5✓ USM covered by 5.5
TXST -1.5✓ USM covered by 5.5Closing total140.5Over by 17.5
 USM | This season | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| 15-15 | Record | 17-12 |
| 15-15 | ATS | 14-15 |
| 17-13 | O/U | 15-14 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: USM 72–72 TXST · ✓ USM (51%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USM | 37 | 44 | 81 |
| TXST | 33 | 44 | 77 |
1st half: USM 37, TXST 33 (USM by 4). The model had USM by 0.3 and a total of 67.6 (actual 70).
Team stats
| USM | TXST | |
|---|---|---|
| 25-47 53% | Field goals | 29-59 49% |
| 3-8 38% | 3-pointers | 2-6 33% |
| 28-37 76% | Free throws | 17-20 85% |
| 26 6 off | Rebounds | 32 12 off |
| 7 | Assists | 11 |
| 5 | Steals | 5 |
| 3 | Blocks | 0 |
| 11 | Turnovers | 12 |
| 15 | Fouls | 25 |
| 40 | Points in paint | 52 |
| 8 | Fast-break points | 8 |
Players
| USM | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Brumfield G | 39 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 2-7 | 0-1 |
| Tylik Weeks F | 36 | 32 | 1 | 2 | 9-18 | 0-1 |
| Djahi Binet F | 31 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 4-7 | 0-1 |
| Israel Hart G | 24 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Isaac Taveras G | 19 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Curt Lewis G | 23 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Chiante' Tramble G | 16 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 3-5 | 0-1 |
| Tegra Izay C | 9 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Dalyn Brandon G | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
Did not play: EJ Paymon, Brewer Carruth, Jett Montgomery, Blake Lander, Fallou Diagne, Robert Cowherd, Chandler Watts, Felipe Patino, IJ Ezuma
| TXST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Drone G | 36 | 19 | 1 | 2 | 6-17 | 0-2 |
| DJ Hall F | 35 | 25 | 11 | 2 | 10-18 | 0-0 |
| Kaden Gumbs G | 29 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| Tay Knox C | 21 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Kyndall Davis G | 18 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1-6 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Franck Emmou G | 29 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Makai Willis C | 12 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Jalen Bolden G | 11 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Robert Fields C | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Cameron Simpson, Jaelyn Lee, Isaiah Barganier, Ky Pernell, Dimp Pernell, Deke Thompson
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketTXST -1.5
ModelUSM -0.4
Model edgeUSM +1.9
W USM covered
Total
Market140.5
Model144.4
Model edgeOver 3.9
W Over
Projected score
USM 72.4 · TXST 72
USM 81 · TXST 77
Win probability
USM 51%
1st half
Spread
USM -0.3
USM -4.0
Total
67.6
70 points
Projected score
USM 34 · TXST 33.6
USM 37 · TXST 33
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUSM -1.5
3 → TXST
CloseTXST -1.5
3 pts toward TXST
Total
Open141.5
▼ 1
Close140.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
USM +110 · TXST -130
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened USM -1.5 · closed TXST -1.5 · moved 3 toward TXSTmodel USM -0.5
model USM -0.5
Opened 141.5 · closed 140.5 · moved 1 downmodel 144.5
model 144.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USM | 6-4 60% | 8-2 80% | 5-5 50% |
| TXST | 8-2 80% | 7-3 70% | 3-7 30% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
USM 5–4 TXSTUSM leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · USM 6-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2025-26 | USM 67 @ TXST 74 | TXST -2.5 | TXST W |
| Jan 8, 2025-26 | TXST 70 @ USM 80 | USM -2.5 | USM W |
| Jan 18, 2024-25 | USM 82 @ TXST 85 | TXST -9.5 | USM W |
| Jan 11, 2024-25 | TXST 88 @ USM 92 | USM +3.5 | USM W |
| Mar 7, 2023-24 | TXST 75 vs USM 59 | USM -2.5 | TXST W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Southern Miss
30 games played
Straight up
15-15
50% wins
Against the spread
15-15
50% covers · avg +1.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
17-13
57% overs · avg +2.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ BUF | L 79-85 | +3.5 | L −2.5 | 153.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 9 | @ SC | L 79-83 | +17.5 | W +13.5 | 147.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 13 | @ GRAM | L 70-75 | +2.5 | L −2.5 | 148.5 | U 145 |
| Nov 22 | vs UNF | W 92-83 | -9.5 | L −0.5 | 154.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 23 | vs UTM | W 70-60 | +1.5 | W +11.5 | 146.5 | U 130 |
| Dec 3 | @ RAD | W 82-75 | +3.5 | W +10.5 | 152.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 6 | @ MIA | L 64-88 | +19.5 | L −4.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 8 | vsGRAM | W 68-60 | -8.5 | L −0.5 | 142.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 13 | vs MISS | L 67-71 | +12.5 | W +8.5 | 138.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 18 | vs UL | W 62-54 | -11.5 | L −3.5 | 132.5 | U 116 |
| Dec 20 | vs ARST | L 86-93 | +1.5 | L −5.5 | 155.5 | O 179 |
| Dec 29 | @ LSU | L 62-90 | +21.5 | L −6.5 | 154.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 1 | @ ULM | W 87-73 | -9.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 3 | @UL | W 74-67 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 129.5 | O 141 |
| Jan 8 | vsTXST | W 80-70 | -2.5 | W +7.5 | 144.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 10 | vsULM | W 70-60 | -14.5 | L −4.5 | 155.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 14 | @ TROY | L 65-91 | +8.5 | L −17.5 | 145.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 17 | @TXST | L 67-74 | +2.5 | L −4.5 | 140.5 | O 141 |
| Jan 22 | @ GAST | L 62-69 | +1.5 | L −5.5 | 144.5 | U 131 |
| Jan 24 | @ CCU | L 67-85 | +2.5 | L −15.5 | 141.5 | O 152 |
| Jan 29 | vs APP | L 63-70 | +1.5 | L −5.5 | 134.5 | U 133 |
| Jan 31 | vs JMU | W 73-65 | -1.5 | W +6.5 | 143.5 | U 138 |
| Feb 4 | @ MRSH | L 77-81 | +10.5 | W +6.5 | 148.5 | O 158 |
| Feb 7 | vs KENT | W 66-65 | +4.5 | W +5.5 | 150.5 | U 131 |
| Feb 12 | vs USA | L 78-84 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 135.5 | O 162 |
| Feb 14 | vsTROY | W 69-65 | +5.5 | W +9.5 | 144.5 | U 134 |
| Feb 21 | vs ODU | W 86-81 | -4.5 | W +0.5 | 147.5 | O 167 |
| Feb 24 | @ARST | L 84-89 | +9.5 | W +4.5 | 158.5 | O 173 |
| Feb 27 | @USA | W 68-55 | +4.5 | W +17.5 | 141.5 | U 123 |
| Mar 5 | vsJMU | W 86-80 | +2.5 | W +8.5 | 143.5 | O 166 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@BUF
BUFL 79-85
−2.5
9
@SC
SCL 79-83
+13.5
13
@GRAM
GRAML 70-75
−2.5
22
vsUNF
UNFW 92-83
−0.5
23
vsUTM
UTMW 70-60
+11.5
3
@RAD
RADW 82-75
+10.5
6
@MIA
MIAL 64-88
−4.5
8
vsGRAM
GRAMW 68-60
−0.5
13
vsMISS
MISSL 67-71
+8.5
18
vsUL
ULW 62-54
−3.5
20
vsARST
ARSTL 86-93
−5.5
29
@LSU
LSUL 62-90
−6.5
1
@ULM
ULMW 87-73
+4.5
3
@UL
ULW 74-67
+3.5
8
vsTXST
TXSTW 80-70
+7.5
10
vsULM
ULMW 70-60
−4.5
14
@TROY
TROYL 65-91
−17.5
17
@TXST
TXSTL 67-74
−4.5
22
@GAST
GASTL 62-69
−5.5
24
@CCU
CCUL 67-85
−15.5
29
vsAPP
APPL 63-70
−5.5
31
vsJMU
JMUW 73-65
+6.5
4
@MRSH
MRSHL 77-81
+6.5
7
vsKENT
KENTW 66-65
+5.5
12
vsUSA
USAL 78-84
−7.5
14
vsTROY
TROYW 69-65
+9.5
21
vsODU
ODUW 86-81
+0.5
24
@ARST
ARSTL 84-89
+4.5
27
@USA
USAW 68-55
+17.5
5
vsJMU
JMUW 86-80
+8.5
covered 15didn’t cover 15avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@BUF
BUFL 79-85
+10.5
9
@SC
SCL 79-83
+14.5
13
@GRAM
GRAML 70-75
−3.5
22
vsUNF
UNFW 92-83
+20.5
23
vsUTM
UTMW 70-60
−16.5
3
@RAD
RADW 82-75
+4.5
6
@MIA
MIAL 64-88
+6.5
8
vsGRAM
GRAMW 68-60
−14.5
13
vsMISS
MISSL 67-71
−0.5
18
vsUL
ULW 62-54
−16.5
20
vsARST
ARSTL 86-93
+23.5
29
@LSU
LSUL 62-90
−2.5
1
@ULM
ULMW 87-73
+7.5
3
@UL
ULW 74-67
+11.5
8
vsTXST
TXSTW 80-70
+5.5
10
vsULM
ULMW 70-60
−25.5
14
@TROY
TROYL 65-91
+10.5
17
@TXST
TXSTL 67-74
+0.5
22
@GAST
GASTL 62-69
−13.5
24
@CCU
CCUL 67-85
+10.5
29
vsAPP
APPL 63-70
−1.5
31
vsJMU
JMUW 73-65
−5.5
4
@MRSH
MRSHL 77-81
+9.5
7
vsKENT
KENTW 66-65
−19.5
12
vsUSA
USAL 78-84
+26.5
14
vsTROY
TROYW 69-65
−10.5
21
vsODU
ODUW 86-81
+19.5
24
@ARST
ARSTL 84-89
+14.5
27
@USA
USAW 68-55
−18.5
5
vsJMU
JMUW 86-80
+22.5
over 17under 13avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Texas St
29 games played
Straight up
17-12
59% wins
Against the spread
14-15
48% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
15-14
52% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ BGSU | L 48-83 | +5.5 | L −29.5 | 146.5 | U 131 |
| Nov 8 | @ TULN | L 71-79 | +12.5 | W +4.5 | 146.5 | O 150 |
| Nov 12 | vs UTSA | W 80-69 | -2.5 | W +8.5 | 147.5 | O 149 |
| Nov 15 | vs TXSO | W 77-67 | -4.5 | W +5.5 | 144.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 18 | vs ACU | W 63-49 | -1.5 | W +12.5 | 138.5 | U 112 |
| Nov 21 | vs LR | W 65-56 | -5.5 | W +3.5 | 131.5 | U 121 |
| Nov 28 | vs SEA | L 52-66 | +7.5 | L −6.5 | 136.5 | U 118 |
| Nov 29 | vs LEH | L 74-78 | -6.5 | L −10.5 | 135.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 3 | @ RICE | L 72-77 | +3.5 | L −1.5 | 133.5 | O 149 |
| Dec 10 | vs SOU | W 86-83 | -3.5 | L −0.5 | 142.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 17 | vsARST | L 70-89 | +4.5 | L −14.5 | 151.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 20 | vsUSA | W 67-65 | -3.5 | L −1.5 | 136.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 31 | @TROY | L 80-100 | +8.5 | L −11.5 | 145.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 3 | @ULM | W 84-79 | -10.5 | L −5.5 | 150.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 8 | @USM | L 70-80 | +2.5 | L −7.5 | 144.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 10 | @ARST | L 82-83 | +11.5 | W +10.5 | 156.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 14 | vsUL | W 59-54 | -8.5 | L −3.5 | 133.5 | U 113 |
| Jan 17 | vsUSM | W 74-67 | -2.5 | W +4.5 | 140.5 | O 141 |
| Jan 22 | @CCU | L 70-72 | +1.5 | L −0.5 | 140.5 | O 142 |
| Jan 24 | @JMU | L 57-82 | +5.5 | L −19.5 | 143.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 28 | vsMRSH | W 72-68 | +3.5 | W +7.5 | 147.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 31 | vsODU | W 81-64 | -2.5 | W +14.5 | 143.5 | O 145 |
| Feb 4 | @ GASO | W 77-71 | +4.5 | W +10.5 | 151.5 | U 148 |
| Feb 7 | vs WMU | W 77-61 | -6.5 | W +9.5 | 146.5 | U 138 |
| Feb 11 | vsTROY | W 74-62 | +5.5 | W +17.5 | 140.5 | U 136 |
| Feb 14 | vsULM | W 95-84 | -14.5 | L −3.5 | 149.5 | O 179 |
| Feb 19 | @USA | W 90-82 | +3.5 | W +11.5 | 137.5 | O 172 |
| Feb 21 | @UL | L 54-67 | -3.5 | L −16.5 | 134.5 | U 121 |
| Feb 27 | vsAPP | W 60-57 | +1.5 | W +4.5 | 135.5 | U 117 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@BGSU
BGSUL 48-83
−29.5
8
@TULN
TULNL 71-79
+4.5
12
vsUTSA
UTSAW 80-69
+8.5
15
vsTXSO
TXSOW 77-67
+5.5
18
vsACU
ACUW 63-49
+12.5
21
vsLR
LRW 65-56
+3.5
28
vsSEA
SEAL 52-66
−6.5
29
vsLEH
LEHL 74-78
−10.5
3
@RICE
RICEL 72-77
−1.5
10
vsSOU
SOUW 86-83
−0.5
17
vsARST
ARSTL 70-89
−14.5
20
vsUSA
USAW 67-65
−1.5
31
@TROY
TROYL 80-100
−11.5
3
@ULM
ULMW 84-79
−5.5
8
@USM
USML 70-80
−7.5
10
@ARST
ARSTL 82-83
+10.5
14
vsUL
ULW 59-54
−3.5
17
vsUSM
USMW 74-67
+4.5
22
@CCU
CCUL 70-72
−0.5
24
@JMU
JMUL 57-82
−19.5
28
vsMRSH
MRSHW 72-68
+7.5
31
vsODU
ODUW 81-64
+14.5
4
@GASO
GASOW 77-71
+10.5
7
vsWMU
WMUW 77-61
+9.5
11
vsTROY
TROYW 74-62
+17.5
14
vsULM
ULMW 95-84
−3.5
19
@USA
USAW 90-82
+11.5
21
@UL
ULL 54-67
−16.5
27
vsAPP
APPW 60-57
+4.5
covered 14didn’t cover 15avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@BGSU
BGSUL 48-83
−15.5
8
@TULN
TULNL 71-79
+3.5
12
vsUTSA
UTSAW 80-69
+1.5
15
vsTXSO
TXSOW 77-67
−0.5
18
vsACU
ACUW 63-49
−26.5
21
vsLR
LRW 65-56
−10.5
28
vsSEA
SEAL 52-66
−18.5
29
vsLEH
LEHL 74-78
+16.5
3
@RICE
RICEL 72-77
+15.5
10
vsSOU
SOUW 86-83
+26.5
17
vsARST
ARSTL 70-89
+7.5
20
vsUSA
USAW 67-65
−4.5
31
@TROY
TROYL 80-100
+34.5
3
@ULM
ULMW 84-79
+12.5
8
@USM
USML 70-80
+5.5
10
@ARST
ARSTL 82-83
+8.5
14
vsUL
ULW 59-54
−20.5
17
vsUSM
USMW 74-67
+0.5
22
@CCU
CCUL 70-72
+1.5
24
@JMU
JMUL 57-82
−4.5
28
vsMRSH
MRSHW 72-68
−7.5
31
vsODU
ODUW 81-64
+1.5
4
@GASO
GASOW 77-71
−3.5
7
vsWMU
WMUW 77-61
−8.5
11
vsTROY
TROYW 74-62
−4.5
14
vsULM
ULMW 95-84
+29.5
19
@USA
USAW 90-82
+34.5
21
@UL
ULL 54-67
−13.5
27
vsAPP
APPW 60-57
−18.5
over 15under 14avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Southern Miss
15-15 overall · 10-9 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs James Madison86–80
- W@ South Alabama68–55
- L@ Arkansas St84–89
- Wvs Old Dominion86–81
- Wvs Troy69–65
1 day since their last game.
Texas St
17-12 overall · 11-7 in conference · Pac-12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs App State60–57
- L@ Louisiana54–67
- W@ South Alabama90–82
- Wvs UL Monroe95–84
- Wvs Troy74–62
A week or more of rest.