Hulman Center · at Indiana St · Conference game
Closing line
INST -2.5✓ VAL covered by 6.5
INST -2.5✓ VAL covered by 6.5Closing total145.5Over by 2.5
 VAL | This season | INST |
|---|---|---|
| 9-11 | Record | 7-13 |
| 13-7 | ATS | 13-7 |
| 10-10 | O/U | 8-12 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: VAL 74–76 INST · ✗ INST (56%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAL | 27 | 39 | 10 | 76 |
| INST | 37 | 29 | 6 | 72 |
1st half: VAL 27, INST 37 (INST by 10). The model had INST by 0.8 and a total of 70.1 (actual 64).
Team stats
| VAL | INST | |
|---|---|---|
| 28-64 44% | Field goals | 27-59 46% |
| 3-14 21% | 3-pointers | 6-25 24% |
| 17-26 65% | Free throws | 12-21 57% |
| 44 16 off | Rebounds | 33 8 off |
| 10 | Assists | 13 |
| 8 | Steals | 3 |
| 5 | Blocks | 5 |
| 9 | Turnovers | 12 |
| 18 | Fouls | 21 |
| 38 | Points in paint | 40 |
| 6 | Fast-break points | 4 |
Players
| VAL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Dease F | 36 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 7-15 | 0-2 |
| Brody Whitaker G | 36 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 1-7 | 1-4 |
| JT Pettigrew F | 35 | 17 | 9 | 0 | 7-13 | 0-1 |
| Rakim Chaney G | 29 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 3-8 | 0-3 |
| Shon Tupuola F | 16 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2-5 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Justus McNair G | 27 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 3-7 | 1-2 |
| Carter Hopoi F | 25 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 5-8 | 1-2 |
| Isaiah Barnes G | 9 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Tucker Tornatta F | 6 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Sader Servilus G | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Kyonte Thomas G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Kobe Walker, Mark Brown Jr., Joe Vick, Camden Webster, Nick Lombardi, Jayden Watson
| INST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Camp Wagner G | 35 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 4-13 | 1-8 |
| Xavier Hall G | 33 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 5-6 | 1-2 |
| Derek Vorst C | 31 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 5-7 | 0-0 |
| Sterling Young G | 29 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 3-13 | 2-9 |
| Ian Scott F | 25 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Enel St. Bernard F | 21 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Jo Van Buggenhout G | 20 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2-5 | 0-2 |
| Bruno Alocen G | 19 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 2-5 | 2-3 |
| Markus Harding C | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Martin Kaupanger, Zyair Greene, Cooper Bean, Sivert Waerstad Nordheim, Caden Huttenlocker, Jayan Walker, Hunter Harding
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketINST -2.5
ModelINST -1.6
Model edgeVAL +0.9
W VAL covered
Total
Market145.5
Model149.7
Model edgeOver 4.2
W Over
Projected score
VAL 74 · INST 75.7
VAL 76 · INST 72
Win probability
INST 56%
1st half
Spread
INST -0.8
INST -10.0
Total
70.1
64 points
Projected score
VAL 34.6 · INST 35.5
VAL 27 · INST 37
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenINST -2.5
no move
CloseINST -2.5
No change since the open
Total
Open144.5
▲ 1
Close145.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
VAL +120 · INST -142
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened INST -2.5 · unchangedmodel INST -1.5
model INST -1.5
Opened 144.5 · closed 145.5 · moved 1 upmodel 149.5
model 149.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VAL | 4-6 40% | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% |
| INST | 2-8 20% | 7-3 70% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22
VAL 3–5 INSTINST leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · VAL 3-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2024-25 | VAL 62 @ INST 80 | INST -4.5 | INST W |
| Jan 8, 2024-25 | INST 95 @ VAL 98 | VAL -1.5 | VAL W |
| Feb 21, 2023-24 | INST 83 @ VAL 64 | VAL +14.5 | INST W |
| Feb 7, 2023-24 | VAL 61 @ INST 101 | INST -20.5 | INST W |
| Feb 8, 2022-23 | VAL 62 @ INST 84 | INST -12.5 | INST W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Valparaiso
20 games played
Straight up
9-11
45% wins
Against the spread
13-7
65% covers · avg +4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-10
50% overs · avg −4.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs EIU | W 66-63 | -5.5 | L −2.5 | 144.5 | U 129 |
| Nov 7 | @ UK | L 59-107 | +32.5 | L −15.5 | 157.5 | O 166 |
| Nov 12 | vs NICH | W 68-63 | -2.5 | W +2.5 | 144.5 | U 131 |
| Nov 16 | vs BRY | W 68-50 | -6.5 | W +11.5 | 143.5 | U 118 |
| Nov 19 | @ CLE | W 90-75 | +2.5 | W +17.5 | 158.5 | O 165 |
| Nov 26 | vs USI | L 56-64 | -9.5 | L −17.5 | 150.5 | U 120 |
| Nov 29 | vs WMU | W 84-55 | -4.5 | W +24.5 | 146.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 2 | @ MARQ | L 72-75 | +17.5 | W +14.5 | 146.5 | O 147 |
| Dec 13 | vs UNCW | L 70-73 | +4.5 | W +1.5 | 136.5 | O 143 |
| Dec 16 | @ NU | L 70-86 | +14.5 | L −1.5 | 145.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 21 | vs MUR | L 79-85 | +5.5 | L −0.5 | 155.5 | O 164 |
| Dec 29 | @ UNI | L 48-58 | +8.5 | L −1.5 | 131.5 | U 106 |
| Jan 1 | @ SIU | L 70-75 | +7.5 | W +2.5 | 145.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 4 | vs UIC | W 66-59 | -2.5 | W +4.5 | 144.5 | U 125 |
| Jan 7 | vs ILST | W 77-71 | +6.5 | W +12.5 | 138.5 | O 148 |
| Jan 10 | @MUR | L 79-92 | +12.5 | L −0.5 | 152.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 13 | @ BEL | L 74-78 | +11.5 | W +7.5 | 146.5 | O 152 |
| Jan 17 | vsUNI | W 54-44 | +1.5 | W +11.5 | 130.5 | U 98 |
| Jan 21 | vsSIU | W 69-63 | -1.5 | W +4.5 | 142.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 28 | vsBEL | L 77-78 | +5.5 | W +4.5 | 145.5 | O 155 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsEIU
EIUW 66-63
−2.5
7
@UK
UKL 59-107
−15.5
12
vsNICH
NICHW 68-63
+2.5
16
vsBRY
BRYW 68-50
+11.5
19
@CLE
CLEW 90-75
+17.5
26
vsUSI
USIL 56-64
−17.5
29
vsWMU
WMUW 84-55
+24.5
2
@MARQ
MARQL 72-75
+14.5
13
vsUNCW
UNCWL 70-73
+1.5
16
@NU
NUL 70-86
−1.5
21
vsMUR
MURL 79-85
−0.5
29
@UNI
UNIL 48-58
−1.5
1
@SIU
SIUL 70-75
+2.5
4
vsUIC
UICW 66-59
+4.5
7
vsILST
ILSTW 77-71
+12.5
10
@MUR
MURL 79-92
−0.5
13
@BEL
BELL 74-78
+7.5
17
vsUNI
UNIW 54-44
+11.5
21
vsSIU
SIUW 69-63
+4.5
28
vsBEL
BELL 77-78
+4.5
covered 13didn’t cover 7avg +4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsEIU
EIUW 66-63
−15.5
7
@UK
UKL 59-107
+8.5
12
vsNICH
NICHW 68-63
−13.5
16
vsBRY
BRYW 68-50
−25.5
19
@CLE
CLEW 90-75
+6.5
26
vsUSI
USIL 56-64
−30.5
29
vsWMU
WMUW 84-55
−7.5
2
@MARQ
MARQL 72-75
+0.5
13
vsUNCW
UNCWL 70-73
+6.5
16
@NU
NUL 70-86
+10.5
21
vsMUR
MURL 79-85
+8.5
29
@UNI
UNIL 48-58
−25.5
1
@SIU
SIUL 70-75
−0.5
4
vsUIC
UICW 66-59
−19.5
7
vsILST
ILSTW 77-71
+9.5
10
@MUR
MURL 79-92
+18.5
13
@BEL
BELL 74-78
+5.5
17
vsUNI
UNIW 54-44
−32.5
21
vsSIU
SIUW 69-63
−10.5
28
vsBEL
BELL 77-78
+9.5
over 10under 10avg −4.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Indiana St
20 games played
Straight up
7-13
35% wins
Against the spread
13-7
65% covers · avg +0.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-12
40% overs · avg −3.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ CLT | L 76-92 | +4.5 | L −11.5 | 152.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 10 | @ SIUE | W 64-55 | +2.5 | W +11.5 | 159.5 | U 119 |
| Nov 14 | @ DUKE | L 62-100 | +37.5 | L −0.5 | 163.5 | U 162 |
| Nov 19 | vs LT | W 60-51 | -3.5 | W +5.5 | 147.5 | U 111 |
| Nov 22 | vs BALL | W 70-52 | -7.5 | W +10.5 | 154.5 | U 122 |
| Nov 26 | @LT | L 73-75 | +2.5 | W +0.5 | 141.5 | O 148 |
| Nov 28 | vs ALCN | L 74-81 | -12.5 | L −19.5 | 152.5 | O 155 |
| Dec 7 | vsUSI | W 77-55 | -11.5 | W +10.5 | 158.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 14 | @ MILW | W 70-68 | +2.5 | W +4.5 | 159.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 18 | vs BRAD | L 99-108 | +5.5 | L −3.5 | 150.5 | O 207 |
| Dec 21 | @ILST | L 65-85 | +13.5 | L −6.5 | 152.5 | U 150 |
| Dec 29 | vsBEL | W 81-80 | +7.5 | W +8.5 | 159.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 1 | @UNI | L 66-75 | +10.5 | W +1.5 | 135.5 | O 141 |
| Jan 4 | @ DRKE | L 72-74 | +6.5 | W +4.5 | 149.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 10 | vs EVAN | L 69-72 | -7.5 | L −10.5 | 145.5 | U 141 |
| Jan 14 | vsILST | W 94-89 | +6.5 | W +11.5 | 148.5 | O 183 |
| Jan 17 | @MUR | L 81-85 | +11.5 | W +7.5 | 167.5 | U 166 |
| Jan 21 | @BRAD | L 68-75 | +8.5 | W +1.5 | 155.5 | U 143 |
| Jan 24 | vsDRKE | L 62-76 | -3.5 | L −17.5 | 151.5 | U 138 |
| Jan 27 | @UIC | L 74-76 | +5.5 | W +3.5 | 147.5 | O 150 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@CLT
CLTL 76-92
−11.5
10
@SIUE
SIUEW 64-55
+11.5
14
@DUKE
DUKEL 62-100
−0.5
19
vsLT
LTW 60-51
+5.5
22
vsBALL
BALLW 70-52
+10.5
26
@LT
LTL 73-75
+0.5
28
vsALCN
ALCNL 74-81
−19.5
7
vsUSI
USIW 77-55
+10.5
14
@MILW
MILWW 70-68
+4.5
18
vsBRAD
BRADL 99-108
−3.5
21
@ILST
ILSTL 65-85
−6.5
29
vsBEL
BELW 81-80
+8.5
1
@UNI
UNIL 66-75
+1.5
4
@DRKE
DRKEL 72-74
+4.5
10
vsEVAN
EVANL 69-72
−10.5
14
vsILST
ILSTW 94-89
+11.5
17
@MUR
MURL 81-85
+7.5
21
@BRAD
BRADL 68-75
+1.5
24
vsDRKE
DRKEL 62-76
−17.5
27
@UIC
UICL 74-76
+3.5
covered 13didn’t cover 7avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@CLT
CLTL 76-92
+15.5
10
@SIUE
SIUEW 64-55
−40.5
14
@DUKE
DUKEL 62-100
−1.5
19
vsLT
LTW 60-51
−36.5
22
vsBALL
BALLW 70-52
−32.5
26
@LT
LTL 73-75
+6.5
28
vsALCN
ALCNL 74-81
+2.5
7
vsUSI
USIW 77-55
−26.5
14
@MILW
MILWW 70-68
−21.5
18
vsBRAD
BRADL 99-108
+56.5
21
@ILST
ILSTL 65-85
−2.5
29
vsBEL
BELW 81-80
+1.5
1
@UNI
UNIL 66-75
+5.5
4
@DRKE
DRKEL 72-74
−3.5
10
vsEVAN
EVANL 69-72
−4.5
14
vsILST
ILSTW 94-89
+34.5
17
@MUR
MURL 81-85
−1.5
21
@BRAD
BRADL 68-75
−12.5
24
vsDRKE
DRKEL 62-76
−13.5
27
@UIC
UICL 74-76
+2.5
over 8under 12avg −3.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Valparaiso
9-11 overall · 4-6 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Belmont77–78
- Wvs S Illinois69–63
- Wvs Northern Iowa54–44
- L@ Belmont74–78
- L@ Murray St79–92
3 days since their last game.
Indiana St
7-13 overall · 2-9 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ UIC74–76
- Lvs Drake62–76
- L@ Bradley68–75
- L@ Murray St81–85
- Wvs Illinois St94–89
4 days since their last game.