The Barn by Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Minnesota · at Minnesota · Conference game
Closing line
MSU -8.5✓ MINN covered by 11.5
MSU -8.5✓ MINN covered by 11.5Closing total136.5Over by 12.5
| MSU | This season | MINN |
|---|---|---|
| 19-3 | Record | 10-12 |
| 11-11 | ATS | 8-14 |
| 7-15 | O/U | 8-14 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MSU 72–63 MINN · ✗ MSU (79%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSU | 21 | 52 | 73 |
| MINN | 32 | 44 | 76 |
1st half: MSU 21, MINN 32 (MINN by 11). The model had MSU by 5.7 and a total of 63.0 (actual 53).
Team stats
| MSU | MINN | |
|---|---|---|
| 26-58 45% | Field goals | 22-46 48% |
| 9-24 38% | 3-pointers | 10-21 48% |
| 12-17 71% | Free throws | 22-31 71% |
| 39 13 off | Rebounds | 23 3 off |
| 22 | Assists | 17 |
| 5 | Steals | 4 |
| 1 | Blocks | 1 |
| 9 | Turnovers | 6 |
| 21 | Fouls | 14 |
| 30 | Points in paint | 24 |
| 9 | Fast-break points | 0 |
Players
| MSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Fears Jr. G | 32 | 10 | 2 | 11 | 4-11 | 0-3 |
| Jordan Scott F | 29 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 5-8 | 3-4 |
| Coen Carr F | 28 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 5-11 | 0-1 |
| Jaxon Kohler F | 27 | 9 | 9 | 1 | 4-9 | 1-5 |
| Carson Cooper C | 20 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Kur Teng G | 18 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1-5 | 1-4 |
| Cam Ward F | 17 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Trey Fort G | 15 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 4-8 | 4-7 |
| Divine Ugochukwu G | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Denham Wojcik G | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jesse McCulloch F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Colin Walton, Brennan Walton, Nick Sanders, Kaleb Glenn
| MINN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Tyson G | 38 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 4-12 | 3-7 |
| Isaac Asuma G | 37 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 3-6 | 0-2 |
| Langston Reynolds G | 37 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 4-8 | 0-0 |
| Bobby Durkin F | 36 | 13 | 8 | 1 | 4-5 | 3-4 |
| Jaylen Crocker-Johnson F | 35 | 22 | 7 | 3 | 7-14 | 4-8 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Grayson Grove F | 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Kai Shinholster G | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Chansey Willis Jr., Max Lorenson, Maximus Gizzi, Nehemiah Turner, RJ Spencer, BJ Omot, Chance Stephens, Robert Vaihola
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketMSU -8.5
ModelMSU -9.3
Model edgeMSU +0.8
L MINN covered
Total
Market136.5
Model134.4
Model edgeUnder 2.1
L Over
Projected score
MSU 71.8 · MINN 62.5
MSU 73 · MINN 76
Win probability
MSU 79%
1st half
Spread
MSU -5.7
MINN -11.0
Total
63.0
53 points
Projected score
MSU 34.3 · MINN 28.6
MSU 21 · MINN 32
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMSU -8.5
no move
CloseMSU -8.5
No change since the open
Total
Open128.5
▲ 8
Close136.5
Up 8 since the open
Moneyline
MSU -470 · MINN +360
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MSU -8.5 · unchangedmodel MSU -9.5
model MSU -9.5
Opened 128.5 · closed 136.5 · moved 8 upmodel 134.5
model 134.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSU | 8-2 80% | 6-4 60% | 3-7 30% |
| MINN | 3-7 30% | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22
MSU 6–1 MINNMSU leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · MSU has won the last 3 meetings · MSU 4-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2024-25 | MINN 51 @ MSU 73 | MSU -14.5 | MSU W |
| Dec 4, 2024-25 | MSU 90 @ MINN 72 | MINN +4.5 | MSU W |
| Mar 14, 2023-24 | MINN 67 vs MSU 77 | MSU -6.5 | MSU W |
| Feb 6, 2023-24 | MSU 56 @ MINN 59 | MINN +3.5 | MINN W |
| Jan 18, 2023-24 | MINN 66 @ MSU 76 | MSU -11.5 | MINN W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Michigan St
22 games played
Straight up
19-3
86% wins
Against the spread
11-11
50% covers · avg +3.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-15
32% overs · avg −3.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs COLG | W 80-69 | -22.5 | L −11.5 | 144.5 | O 149 |
| Nov 8 | vs ARK | W 69-66 | -2.5 | W +0.5 | 155.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 13 | vs SJSU | W 79-60 | -24.5 | L −5.5 | 143.5 | U 139 |
| Nov 18 | vs UK | W 83-66 | +3.5 | W +20.5 | 152.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 21 | vs DETM | W 84-56 | -30.5 | L −2.5 | 149.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 25 | vs ECU | W 89-56 | -19.5 | W +13.5 | 140.5 | O 145 |
| Nov 27 | vs UNC | W 74-58 | -1.5 | W +14.5 | 152.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 2 | vs IOWA | W 71-52 | -5.5 | W +13.5 | 133.5 | U 123 |
| Dec 6 | vs DUKE | L 60-66 | +1.5 | L −4.5 | 141.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 13 | @ PSU | W 76-72 | -12.5 | L −8.5 | 145.5 | O 148 |
| Dec 16 | vs TOL | W 92-69 | -23.5 | L −0.5 | 150.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 20 | vs OAK | W 79-70 | -19.5 | L −10.5 | 155.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 29 | vs COR | W 114-97 | -23.5 | L −6.5 | 160.5 | O 211 |
| Jan 2 | @ NEB | L 56-58 | +2.5 | W +0.5 | 146.5 | U 114 |
| Jan 5 | vs USC | W 80-51 | -11.5 | W +17.5 | 151.5 | U 131 |
| Jan 8 | vs NU | W 76-66 | -13.5 | L −3.5 | 143.5 | U 142 |
| Jan 13 | vs IU | W 81-60 | -6.5 | W +14.5 | 145.5 | U 141 |
| Jan 17 | @ WASH | W 80-63 | -3.5 | W +13.5 | 145.5 | U 143 |
| Jan 20 | @ ORE | W 68-52 | -10.5 | W +5.5 | 139.5 | U 120 |
| Jan 24 | vs MD | W 91-48 | -18.5 | W +24.5 | 141.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 27 | @ RUTG | W 88-79 | -14.5 | L −5.5 | 138.5 | O 167 |
| Jan 30 | vs MICH | L 71-83 | +2.5 | L −9.5 | 149.5 | O 154 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCOLG
COLGW 80-69
−11.5
8
vsARK
ARKW 69-66
+0.5
13
vsSJSU
SJSUW 79-60
−5.5
18
vsUK
UKW 83-66
+20.5
21
vsDETM
DETMW 84-56
−2.5
25
vsECU
ECUW 89-56
+13.5
27
vsUNC
UNCW 74-58
+14.5
2
vsIOWA
IOWAW 71-52
+13.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 60-66
−4.5
13
@PSU
PSUW 76-72
−8.5
16
vsTOL
TOLW 92-69
−0.5
20
vsOAK
OAKW 79-70
−10.5
29
vsCOR
CORW 114-97
−6.5
2
@NEB
NEBL 56-58
+0.5
5
vsUSC
USCW 80-51
+17.5
8
vsNU
NUW 76-66
−3.5
13
vsIU
IUW 81-60
+14.5
17
@WASH
WASHW 80-63
+13.5
20
@ORE
OREW 68-52
+5.5
24
vsMD
MDW 91-48
+24.5
27
@RUTG
RUTGW 88-79
−5.5
30
vsMICH
MICHL 71-83
−9.5
covered 11didn’t cover 11avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCOLG
COLGW 80-69
+4.5
8
vsARK
ARKW 69-66
−20.5
13
vsSJSU
SJSUW 79-60
−4.5
18
vsUK
UKW 83-66
−3.5
21
vsDETM
DETMW 84-56
−9.5
25
vsECU
ECUW 89-56
+4.5
27
vsUNC
UNCW 74-58
−20.5
2
vsIOWA
IOWAW 71-52
−10.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 60-66
−15.5
13
@PSU
PSUW 76-72
+2.5
16
vsTOL
TOLW 92-69
+10.5
20
vsOAK
OAKW 79-70
−6.5
29
vsCOR
CORW 114-97
+50.5
2
@NEB
NEBL 56-58
−32.5
5
vsUSC
USCW 80-51
−20.5
8
vsNU
NUW 76-66
−1.5
13
vsIU
IUW 81-60
−4.5
17
@WASH
WASHW 80-63
−2.5
20
@ORE
OREW 68-52
−19.5
24
vsMD
MDW 91-48
−2.5
27
@RUTG
RUTGW 88-79
+28.5
30
vsMICH
MICHL 71-83
+4.5
over 7under 15avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Minnesota
22 games played
Straight up
10-12
45% wins
Against the spread
8-14
36% covers · avg −1.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-14
36% overs · avg −3.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs GWEB | W 87-60 | -28.5 | L −1.5 | 148.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 8 | vs ALCN | W 95-50 | -31.5 | W +13.5 | 152.5 | U 145 |
| Nov 12 | @ MIZ | L 60-83 | +7.5 | L −15.5 | 158.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 15 | vs GB | W 72-65 | -25.5 | L −18.5 | 146.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 18 | vs CHST | W 66-54 | -27.5 | L −15.5 | 144.5 | U 120 |
| Nov 22 | vs SF | L 65-77 | -1.5 | L −13.5 | 140.5 | O 142 |
| Nov 27 | vs STAN | L 68-72 | +2.5 | L −1.5 | 142.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 28 | vs SCU | L 75-86 | +5.5 | L −5.5 | 138.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 3 | vsIU | W 73-64 | +7.5 | W +16.5 | 144.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 10 | @ PUR | L 57-85 | +19.5 | L −8.5 | 143.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 14 | vs TXSO | W 89-53 | -21.5 | W +14.5 | 144.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 21 | vs CAM | W 78-50 | -13.5 | W +14.5 | 145.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 29 | vs FDU | W 60-43 | -25.5 | L −8.5 | 139.5 | U 103 |
| Jan 3 | @NU | W 84-78 | +4.5 | W +10.5 | 138.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 6 | vsIOWA | W 70-67 | +4.5 | W +7.5 | 130.5 | O 137 |
| Jan 9 | vsUSC | L 69-70 | -3.5 | L −4.5 | 147.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 13 | vs WIS | L 75-78 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 146.5 | O 153 |
| Jan 17 | @ ILL | L 67-77 | +15.5 | W +5.5 | 142.5 | O 144 |
| Jan 20 | @ OSU | L 74-82 | +7.5 | L −0.5 | 143.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 24 | vsNEB | L 57-76 | +4.5 | L −14.5 | 140.5 | U 133 |
| Jan 28 | @WIS | L 63-67 | +9.5 | W +5.5 | 146.5 | U 130 |
| Feb 1 | @PSU | L 75-77 | -2.5 | L −4.5 | 142.5 | O 152 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsGWEB
GWEBW 87-60
−1.5
8
vsALCN
ALCNW 95-50
+13.5
12
@MIZ
MIZL 60-83
−15.5
15
vsGB
GBW 72-65
−18.5
18
vsCHST
CHSTW 66-54
−15.5
22
vsSF
SFL 65-77
−13.5
27
vsSTAN
STANL 68-72
−1.5
28
vsSCU
SCUL 75-86
−5.5
3
vsIU
IUW 73-64
+16.5
10
@PUR
PURL 57-85
−8.5
14
vsTXSO
TXSOW 89-53
+14.5
21
vsCAM
CAMW 78-50
+14.5
29
vsFDU
FDUW 60-43
−8.5
3
@NU
NUW 84-78
+10.5
6
vsIOWA
IOWAW 70-67
+7.5
9
vsUSC
USCL 69-70
−4.5
13
vsWIS
WISL 75-78
−1.5
17
@ILL
ILLL 67-77
+5.5
20
@OSU
OSUL 74-82
−0.5
24
vsNEB
NEBL 57-76
−14.5
28
@WIS
WISL 63-67
+5.5
1
@PSU
PSUL 75-77
−4.5
covered 8didn’t cover 14avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsGWEB
GWEBW 87-60
−1.5
8
vsALCN
ALCNW 95-50
−7.5
12
@MIZ
MIZL 60-83
−15.5
15
vsGB
GBW 72-65
−9.5
18
vsCHST
CHSTW 66-54
−24.5
22
vsSF
SFL 65-77
+1.5
27
vsSTAN
STANL 68-72
−2.5
28
vsSCU
SCUL 75-86
+22.5
3
vsIU
IUW 73-64
−7.5
10
@PUR
PURL 57-85
−1.5
14
vsTXSO
TXSOW 89-53
−2.5
21
vsCAM
CAMW 78-50
−17.5
29
vsFDU
FDUW 60-43
−36.5
3
@NU
NUW 84-78
+23.5
6
vsIOWA
IOWAW 70-67
+6.5
9
vsUSC
USCL 69-70
−8.5
13
vsWIS
WISL 75-78
+6.5
17
@ILL
ILLL 67-77
+1.5
20
@OSU
OSUL 74-82
+12.5
24
vsNEB
NEBL 57-76
−7.5
28
@WIS
WISL 63-67
−16.5
1
@PSU
PSUL 75-77
+9.5
over 8under 14avg −3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Michigan St
19-3 overall · 9-2 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Michigan71–83
- W@ Rutgers88–79
- Wvs Maryland91–48
- W@ Oregon68–52
- W@ Washington80–63
5 days since their last game.
Minnesota
10-12 overall · 3-8 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Penn State75–77
- L@ Wisconsin63–67
- Lvs Nebraska57–76
- L@ Ohio State74–82
- L@ Illinois67–77
3 days since their last game.