Petersen Events Center · at Pitt · Conference game
Closing line
LOU -7.5✓ LOU covered by 33.5
LOU -7.5✓ LOU covered by 33.5Closing total152.5Over by 6.5
| LOU | This season | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| 12-5 | Record | 8-9 |
| 9-8 | ATS | 8-9 |
| 7-10 | O/U | 10-7 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: LOU 80–72 PITT · ✓ LOU (76%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOU | 53 | 47 | 100 |
| PITT | 22 | 37 | 59 |
1st half: LOU 53, PITT 22 (LOU by 31). The model had LOU by 5.0 and a total of 71.2 (actual 75).
Team stats
| LOU | PITT | |
|---|---|---|
| 36-57 63% | Field goals | 21-55 38% |
| 15-29 52% | 3-pointers | 7-24 29% |
| 13-15 87% | Free throws | 10-16 63% |
| 35 6 off | Rebounds | 24 8 off |
| 24 | Assists | 13 |
| 6 | Steals | 5 |
| 2 | Blocks | 2 |
| 8 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 16 | Fouls | 14 |
| 38 | Points in paint | 24 |
| 10 | Fast-break points | 6 |
Players
| LOU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac McKneely G | 34 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 3-8 | 3-6 |
| J'Vonne Hadley G | 31 | 17 | 7 | 5 | 7-9 | 1-1 |
| Ryan Conwell G | 30 | 24 | 6 | 6 | 9-16 | 5-11 |
| Adrian Wooley G | 26 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 3-5 | 2-4 |
| Sananda Fru F | 23 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 6-7 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Kobe Rodgers G | 19 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 3-4 | 1-1 |
| Aly Khalifa C | 16 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3-4 | 3-4 |
| Vangelis Zougris F | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Kasean Pryor F | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Will Hanke G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Cole Sherman G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Khani Rooths, Spencer Legg, London Johnson, Mouhamed Camara, Mikel Brown Jr.
| PITT | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Corhen F | 34 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2-5 | 0-1 |
| Roman Siulepa F | 29 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 3-10 | 2-6 |
| Barry Dunning Jr. G | 29 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 4-7 | 0-1 |
| Damarco Minor G | 27 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 2-4 | 1-3 |
| Omari Witherspoon G | 23 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2-8 | 1-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Brandin Cummings G | 26 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 4-10 | 1-3 |
| Nojus Indrusaitis G | 22 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 3-9 | 2-6 |
| Kieran Mullen C | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Macari Moore G | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jajuan Nelson, Benjamin Mayhew, Amdy Ndiaye, Papa Amadou Kante, Henry Lau, Dishon Jackson
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketLOU -7.5
ModelLOU -8.3
Model edgeLOU +0.8
W LOU covered
Total
Market152.5
Model152.0
Model edgeUnder 0.5
L Over
Projected score
LOU 80.1 · PITT 71.9
LOU 100 · PITT 59
Win probability
LOU 76%
1st half
Spread
LOU -5.0
LOU -31.0
Total
71.2
75 points
Projected score
LOU 38.1 · PITT 33.1
LOU 53 · PITT 22
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenLOU -6.5
1 → LOU
CloseLOU -7.5
1 pt toward LOU
Total
Open151.5
▲ 1
Close152.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
LOU -325 · PITT +260
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened LOU -6.5 · closed LOU -7.5 · moved 1 toward LOUmodel LOU -8.5
model LOU -8.5
Opened 151.5 · closed 152.5 · moved 1 upmodel 152
model 152
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOU | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% |
| PITT | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% | 8-2 80% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22
LOU 3–5 PITTPITT leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · LOU has won the last 2 meetings · LOU 2-6 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2024-25 | PITT 68 @ LOU 79 | LOU -10.5 | LOU W |
| Jan 11, 2024-25 | LOU 82 @ PITT 78 | PITT -3.5 | LOU W |
| Feb 17, 2023-24 | LOU 59 @ PITT 86 | PITT -12.5 | PITT W |
| Jan 6, 2023-24 | PITT 83 @ LOU 70 | LOU +8.5 | PITT W |
| Feb 7, 2022-23 | LOU 57 @ PITT 91 | PITT -14.5 | PITT W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Louisville
17 games played
Straight up
12-5
71% wins
Against the spread
9-8
53% covers · avg +0.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-10
41% overs · avg −4.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs SCST | W 104-45 | -35.5 | W +23.5 | 159.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 6 | vs JKST | W 106-70 | -38.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 11 | vs UK | W 96-88 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 173.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 15 | vs OHIO | W 106-81 | -31.5 | L −6.5 | 174.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 21 | vs CIN | W 74-64 | -8.5 | W +1.5 | 163.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 24 | vs EMU | W 87-46 | -33.5 | W +7.5 | 162.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 26 | vs NJIT | W 104-47 | -44.5 | W +12.5 | 158.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 3 | @ ARK | L 80-89 | -1.5 | L −10.5 | 166.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 6 | vs IU | W 87-78 | -3.5 | W +5.5 | 162.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 13 | vs MEM | W 99-73 | -16.5 | W +9.5 | 162.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 16 | @ TENN | L 62-83 | +4.5 | L −16.5 | 156.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 20 | vs MONT | W 94-54 | -30.5 | W +9.5 | 166.5 | U 148 |
| Dec 30 | @ CAL | W 90-70 | -7.5 | W +12.5 | 159.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 2 | @ STAN | L 76-80 | -7.5 | L −11.5 | 157.5 | U 156 |
| Jan 6 | vs DUKE | L 73-84 | +1.5 | L −9.5 | 161.5 | U 157 |
| Jan 10 | vs BC | W 75-62 | -21.5 | L −8.5 | 150.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 13 | vs UVA | L 70-79 | -4.5 | L −13.5 | 154.5 | U 149 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsSCST
SCSTW 104-45
+23.5
6
vsJKST
JKSTW 106-70
−2.5
11
vsUK
UKW 96-88
+2.5
15
vsOHIO
OHIOW 106-81
−6.5
21
vsCIN
CINW 74-64
+1.5
24
vsEMU
EMUW 87-46
+7.5
26
vsNJIT
NJITW 104-47
+12.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 80-89
−10.5
6
vsIU
IUW 87-78
+5.5
13
vsMEM
MEMW 99-73
+9.5
16
@TENN
TENNL 62-83
−16.5
20
vsMONT
MONTW 94-54
+9.5
30
@CAL
CALW 90-70
+12.5
2
@STAN
STANL 76-80
−11.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 73-84
−9.5
10
vsBC
BCW 75-62
−8.5
13
vsUVA
UVAL 70-79
−13.5
covered 9didn’t cover 8avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsSCST
SCSTW 104-45
−10.5
6
vsJKST
JKSTW 106-70
+10.5
11
vsUK
UKW 96-88
+10.5
15
vsOHIO
OHIOW 106-81
+12.5
21
vsCIN
CINW 74-64
−25.5
24
vsEMU
EMUW 87-46
−29.5
26
vsNJIT
NJITW 104-47
−7.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 80-89
+2.5
6
vsIU
IUW 87-78
+2.5
13
vsMEM
MEMW 99-73
+9.5
16
@TENN
TENNL 62-83
−11.5
20
vsMONT
MONTW 94-54
−18.5
30
@CAL
CALW 90-70
+0.5
2
@STAN
STANL 76-80
−1.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 73-84
−4.5
10
vsBC
BCW 75-62
−13.5
13
vsUVA
UVAL 70-79
−5.5
over 7under 10avg −4.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Pitt
17 games played
Straight up
8-9
47% wins
Against the spread
8-9
47% covers · avg +0.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-7
59% overs · avg +1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs YSU | W 74-59 | -14.5 | W +0.5 | 145.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 7 | vs LONG | W 78-60 | -14.5 | W +3.5 | 145.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 10 | vsEMU | W 78-66 | -15.5 | L −3.5 | 141.5 | O 144 |
| Nov 13 | @ WVU | L 49-71 | +5.5 | L −16.5 | 134.5 | U 120 |
| Nov 17 | vs BUCK | W 84-50 | -16.5 | W +17.5 | 141.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 20 | vs UCF | L 67-77 | -1.5 | L −11.5 | 149.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 23 | vs QUIN | L 75-83 | -12.5 | L −20.5 | 140.5 | O 158 |
| Nov 28 | vs OSU | W 67-66 | +5.5 | W +6.5 | 148.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 2 | vs TA&M | L 73-81 | +3.5 | L −4.5 | 152.5 | O 154 |
| Dec 7 | vs HOF | L 73-80 | -8.5 | L −15.5 | 134.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 13 | @ VILL | L 61-79 | +10.5 | L −7.5 | 138.5 | O 140 |
| Dec 17 | vs BING | W 103-63 | -24.5 | W +15.5 | 134.5 | O 166 |
| Dec 21 | vs PSU | W 80-46 | +1.5 | W +35.5 | 146.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 30 | @ MIA | L 69-76 | +9.5 | W +2.5 | 144.5 | O 145 |
| Jan 3 | vs CLEM | L 68-73 | +3.5 | L −1.5 | 135.5 | O 141 |
| Jan 10 | vs SYR | L 72-83 | -1.5 | L −12.5 | 142.5 | O 155 |
| Jan 14 | @ GT | W 89-66 | -1.5 | W +21.5 | 145.5 | O 155 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsYSU
YSUW 74-59
+0.5
7
vsLONG
LONGW 78-60
+3.5
10
vsEMU
EMUW 78-66
−3.5
13
@WVU
WVUL 49-71
−16.5
17
vsBUCK
BUCKW 84-50
+17.5
20
vsUCF
UCFL 67-77
−11.5
23
vsQUIN
QUINL 75-83
−20.5
28
vsOSU
OSUW 67-66
+6.5
2
vsTA&M
TA&ML 73-81
−4.5
7
vsHOF
HOFL 73-80
−15.5
13
@VILL
VILLL 61-79
−7.5
17
vsBING
BINGW 103-63
+15.5
21
vsPSU
PSUW 80-46
+35.5
30
@MIA
MIAL 69-76
+2.5
3
vsCLEM
CLEML 68-73
−1.5
10
vsSYR
SYRL 72-83
−12.5
14
@GT
GTW 89-66
+21.5
covered 8didn’t cover 9avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsYSU
YSUW 74-59
−12.5
7
vsLONG
LONGW 78-60
−7.5
10
vsEMU
EMUW 78-66
+2.5
13
@WVU
WVUL 49-71
−14.5
17
vsBUCK
BUCKW 84-50
−7.5
20
vsUCF
UCFL 67-77
−5.5
23
vsQUIN
QUINL 75-83
+17.5
28
vsOSU
OSUW 67-66
−15.5
2
vsTA&M
TA&ML 73-81
+1.5
7
vsHOF
HOFL 73-80
+18.5
13
@VILL
VILLL 61-79
+1.5
17
vsBING
BINGW 103-63
+31.5
21
vsPSU
PSUW 80-46
−20.5
30
@MIA
MIAL 69-76
+0.5
3
vsCLEM
CLEML 68-73
+5.5
10
vsSYR
SYRL 72-83
+12.5
14
@GT
GTW 89-66
+9.5
over 10under 7avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Louisville
12-5 overall · 2-3 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Virginia70–79
- Wvs Boston College75–62
- Lvs Duke73–84
- L@ Stanford76–80
- W@ California90–70
4 days since their last game.
Pitt
8-9 overall · 1-3 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Georgia Tech89–66
- Lvs Syracuse72–83
- Lvs Clemson68–73
- L@ Miami69–76
- Wvs Penn State80–46
3 days since their last game.