Leo D. Mahoney Arena · at Fairfield · Conference game
Closing line
FAIR -4.5✓ MSM covered by 26.5
FAIR -4.5✓ MSM covered by 26.5Closing total145.5Under by 29.5
 MSM | This season | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| 13-16 | Record | 18-11 |
| 17-12 | ATS | 13-16 |
| 10-19 | O/U | 14-15 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MSM 70–75 FAIR · ✗ FAIR (67%) lost
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSM | 39 | 30 | 69 |
| FAIR | 25 | 22 | 47 |
1st half: MSM 39, FAIR 25 (MSM by 14). The model had FAIR by 2.8 and a total of 68.2 (actual 64).
Team stats
| MSM | FAIR | |
|---|---|---|
| 28-54 52% | Field goals | 13-54 24% |
| 8-21 38% | 3-pointers | 5-20 25% |
| 5-10 50% | Free throws | 16-23 70% |
| 37 8 off | Rebounds | 35 14 off |
| 17 | Assists | 6 |
| 9 | Steals | 8 |
| 4 | Blocks | 1 |
| 17 | Turnovers | 15 |
| 20 | Fouls | 10 |
| 38 | Points in paint | 12 |
| 9 | Fast-break points | 0 |
Players
| MSM | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arlandus Keyes G | 33 | 15 | 3 | 4 | 6-14 | 3-10 |
| Xavier Lipscomb G | 32 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Luke McEldon F | 28 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 4-6 | 0-0 |
| Anthony Arrington Jr. G | 22 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3-8 | 1-2 |
| Trey Deveaux F | 20 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 6-8 | 2-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Justin Amadi F | 19 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 4-6 | 0-0 |
| Patrick Haigh G | 16 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Yakhya Diop F | 11 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Mason So G | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| Anastasios Rozakeas G | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Elijah Espinosa F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| John Miller IV G | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Noah Rogers, Abdou Khadre Kebe, Jaxon Hartman, Justin May
| FAIR | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Declan Wucherpfennig G | 36 | 9 | 14 | 3 | 4-13 | 1-2 |
| Braden Sparks G | 34 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 3-13 | 2-6 |
| Tony Williams G | 27 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 3-9 | 2-5 |
| Halon Rawlins G | 21 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Isaac Munkadi F | 17 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Brandon Benjamin F | 23 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 1-6 | 0-0 |
| Deuce Turner G | 17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-2 |
| Nasir Rodriguez G | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Eric Mejia G | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Michael Rogan G | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Ryan Zan F | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Tanner Ostop, Aidan May, Peyton Smith, Joe Ganton, Luke Davidson, Matt Curtis, Cam Estevez, Noah Best
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenFAIR -4.5
no move
CloseFAIR -4.5
No change since the open
Total
Open143.5
▲ 2
Close145.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
MSM +160 · FAIR -192
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened FAIR -4.5 · unchangedmodel FAIR -5
model FAIR -5
Opened 143.5 · closed 145.5 · moved 2 upmodel 145.5 matches the line
model 145.5 = line ✓
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | FAIR -4.5 | FAIR -4.9 | FAIR +0.4 | L MSM covered |
| Total | 145.5 | 145.6 | Over 0.1 | L Under |
| Projected score | — | MSM 70.4 · FAIR 75.3 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | FAIR -2.8 | MSM -14.0 |
| 1H total | 68.2 | 64 |
| 1H projected score | MSM 32.7 · FAIR 35.5 | MSM 39 · FAIR 25 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSM | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% | 3-7 30% |
| FAIR | 8-2 80% | 6-4 60% | 3-7 30% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22
MSM 1–5 FAIRFAIR leads · 6 games since 2021-22 · MSM 2-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2024-25 | MSM 62 @ FAIR 69 | FAIR +1.5 | FAIR W |
| Dec 8, 2024-25 | FAIR 94 @ MSM 101 | MSM -2.5 | MSM W |
| Mar 9, 2023-24 | FAIR 96 @ MSM 92 | MSM +1.5 | FAIR W |
| Feb 18, 2023-24 | MSM 80 @ FAIR 94 | FAIR -4.5 | FAIR W |
| Feb 12, 2022-23 | MSM 72 @ FAIR 76 | FAIR -4.5 | MSM W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Mount St Marys
29 games played
Straight up
13-16
45% wins
Against the spread
17-12
59% covers · avg −0.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-19
34% overs · avg −2.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | @ WVU | L 54-70 | +19.5 | W +3.5 | 136.5 | U 124 |
| Nov 7 | vs BUCK | L 62-73 | -1.5 | L −12.5 | 143.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 11 | @ SFPA | W 74-66 | -6.5 | W +1.5 | 149.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 16 | @ CIN | L 55-72 | +25.5 | W +8.5 | 145.5 | U 127 |
| Nov 19 | @ MD | L 90-95 | +17.5 | W +12.5 | 145.5 | O 185 |
| Nov 23 | @ WMU | L 60-83 | +1.5 | L −21.5 | 150.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 25 | @ OSU | L 60-113 | +30.5 | L −22.5 | 151.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 29 | vs HOW | W 79-75 | -2.5 | W +1.5 | 146.5 | O 154 |
| Dec 3 | vs SHU | L 80-87 | +1.5 | L −5.5 | 152.5 | O 167 |
| Dec 5 | @ MRST | L 56-64 | +8.5 | W +0.5 | 136.5 | U 120 |
| Dec 13 | @ L-MD | W 81-73 | -2.5 | W +5.5 | 151.5 | O 154 |
| Dec 19 | @ DREX | L 67-75 | +4.5 | L −3.5 | 137.5 | O 142 |
| Dec 29 | vs IONA | W 66-59 | +2.5 | W +9.5 | 153.5 | U 125 |
| Jan 2 | @ MRMK | L 65-75 | +3.5 | L −6.5 | 141.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 4 | @ QUIN | L 69-80 | +7.5 | L −3.5 | 150.5 | U 149 |
| Jan 9 | vs SPU | W 70-65 | +1.5 | W +6.5 | 141.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 11 | vs SIE | L 50-67 | +2.5 | L −14.5 | 139.5 | U 117 |
| Jan 17 | @ CAN | W 78-68 | -3.5 | W +6.5 | 135.5 | O 146 |
| Jan 19 | @ NIA | W 68-58 | -3.5 | W +6.5 | 131.5 | U 126 |
| Jan 22 | vsQUIN | L 62-77 | +4.5 | L −10.5 | 148.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 24 | vs RID | W 71-61 | -9.5 | W +0.5 | 139.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 30 | @SPU | L 58-66 | +5.5 | L −2.5 | 138.5 | U 124 |
| Feb 1 | vs MAN | W 72-65 | -6.5 | W +0.5 | 147.5 | U 137 |
| Feb 5 | vsMRMK | L 70-87 | +2.5 | L −14.5 | 134.5 | O 157 |
| Feb 7 | @IONA | W 83-76 | +3.5 | W +10.5 | 141.5 | O 159 |
| Feb 13 | @RID | W 65-55 | -5.5 | W +4.5 | 137.5 | U 120 |
| Feb 20 | vsNIA | W 76-63 | -7.5 | W +5.5 | 130.5 | O 139 |
| Feb 22 | vsCAN | W 68-47 | -7.5 | W +13.5 | 137.5 | U 115 |
| Feb 27 | @SHU | L 69-77 | +2.5 | L −5.5 | 150.5 | U 146 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
@WVU
WVUL 54-70
+3.5
7
vsBUCK
BUCKL 62-73
−12.5
11
@SFPA
SFPAW 74-66
+1.5
16
@CIN
CINL 55-72
+8.5
19
@MD
MDL 90-95
+12.5
23
@WMU
WMUL 60-83
−21.5
25
@OSU
OSUL 60-113
−22.5
29
vsHOW
HOWW 79-75
+1.5
3
vsSHU
SHUL 80-87
−5.5
5
@MRST
MRSTL 56-64
+0.5
13
@L-MD
L-MDW 81-73
+5.5
19
@DREX
DREXL 67-75
−3.5
29
vsIONA
IONAW 66-59
+9.5
2
@MRMK
MRMKL 65-75
−6.5
4
@QUIN
QUINL 69-80
−3.5
9
vsSPU
SPUW 70-65
+6.5
11
vsSIE
SIEL 50-67
−14.5
17
@CAN
CANW 78-68
+6.5
19
@NIA
NIAW 68-58
+6.5
22
vsQUIN
QUINL 62-77
−10.5
24
vsRID
RIDW 71-61
+0.5
30
@SPU
SPUL 58-66
−2.5
1
vsMAN
MANW 72-65
+0.5
5
vsMRMK
MRMKL 70-87
−14.5
7
@IONA
IONAW 83-76
+10.5
13
@RID
RIDW 65-55
+4.5
20
vsNIA
NIAW 76-63
+5.5
22
vsCAN
CANW 68-47
+13.5
27
@SHU
SHUL 69-77
−5.5
covered 17didn’t cover 12avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
@WVU
WVUL 54-70
−12.5
7
vsBUCK
BUCKL 62-73
−8.5
11
@SFPA
SFPAW 74-66
−9.5
16
@CIN
CINL 55-72
−18.5
19
@MD
MDL 90-95
+39.5
23
@WMU
WMUL 60-83
−7.5
25
@OSU
OSUL 60-113
+21.5
29
vsHOW
HOWW 79-75
+7.5
3
vsSHU
SHUL 80-87
+14.5
5
@MRST
MRSTL 56-64
−16.5
13
@L-MD
L-MDW 81-73
+2.5
19
@DREX
DREXL 67-75
+4.5
29
vsIONA
IONAW 66-59
−28.5
2
@MRMK
MRMKL 65-75
−1.5
4
@QUIN
QUINL 69-80
−1.5
9
vsSPU
SPUW 70-65
−6.5
11
vsSIE
SIEL 50-67
−22.5
17
@CAN
CANW 78-68
+10.5
19
@NIA
NIAW 68-58
−5.5
22
vsQUIN
QUINL 62-77
−9.5
24
vsRID
RIDW 71-61
−7.5
30
@SPU
SPUL 58-66
−14.5
1
vsMAN
MANW 72-65
−10.5
5
vsMRMK
MRMKL 70-87
+22.5
7
@IONA
IONAW 83-76
+17.5
13
@RID
RIDW 65-55
−17.5
20
vsNIA
NIAW 76-63
+8.5
22
vsCAN
CANW 68-47
−22.5
27
@SHU
SHUL 69-77
−4.5
over 10under 19avg −2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Fairfield
29 games played
Straight up
18-11
62% wins
Against the spread
13-16
45% covers · avg +1.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
14-15
48% overs · avg +1.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ PSU | L 68-76 | +15.5 | W +7.5 | 151.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 8 | @ NJIT | W 74-53 | -6.5 | W +14.5 | 145.5 | U 127 |
| Nov 10 | @ HALL | L 59-82 | +14.5 | L −8.5 | 137.5 | O 141 |
| Nov 14 | vs STO | W 73-71 | -6.5 | L −4.5 | 143.5 | O 144 |
| Nov 16 | vsL-MD | W 85-82 | -5.5 | L −2.5 | 135.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 22 | @ LEM | W 97-83 | -1.5 | W +12.5 | 145.5 | O 180 |
| Nov 26 | vs COLU | L 77-106 | +3.5 | L −25.5 | 150.5 | O 183 |
| Nov 30 | vs UNH | W 72-68 | -9.5 | L −5.5 | 147.5 | U 140 |
| Dec 5 | @MAN | L 66-70 | -1.5 | L −5.5 | 155.5 | U 136 |
| Dec 7 | @MRMK | L 63-74 | +3.5 | L −7.5 | 144.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 14 | vs MONM | W 73-65 | +2.5 | W +10.5 | 143.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 18 | @ CCSU | W 84-70 | +6.5 | W +20.5 | 143.5 | O 154 |
| Dec 29 | vsSPU | L 66-70 | -2.5 | L −6.5 | 140.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 2 | @CAN | L 81-85 | -6.5 | L −10.5 | 140.5 | O 166 |
| Jan 4 | @NIA | W 83-75 | -3.5 | W +4.5 | 138.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 9 | vsRID | W 68-62 | -8.5 | L −2.5 | 145.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 14 | vsMAN | W 98-62 | -6.5 | W +29.5 | 158.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 17 | @MRST | L 67-82 | +8.5 | L −6.5 | 141.5 | O 149 |
| Jan 19 | @SIE | L 77-85 | +6.5 | L −1.5 | 142.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 22 | vsNIA | W 62-61 | -10.5 | L −9.5 | 139.5 | U 123 |
| Jan 24 | vsCAN | W 61-55 | -10.5 | L −4.5 | 141.5 | U 116 |
| Jan 30 | @IONA | W 71-70 | +1.5 | W +2.5 | 146.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 1 | vsQUIN | L 65-72 | +2.5 | L −4.5 | 154.5 | U 137 |
| Feb 5 | @SHU | W 92-87 | +1.5 | W +6.5 | 155.5 | O 179 |
| Feb 7 | vsMRST | W 63-60 | +1.5 | W +4.5 | 138.5 | U 123 |
| Feb 15 | @SPU | L 74-83 | +3.5 | L −5.5 | 141.5 | O 157 |
| Feb 20 | vsSHU | W 78-68 | -4.5 | W +5.5 | 158.5 | U 146 |
| Feb 22 | @QUIN | W 85-79 | +6.5 | W +12.5 | 150.5 | O 164 |
| Feb 27 | vsSIE | W 72-58 | +1.5 | W +15.5 | 142.5 | U 130 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@PSU
PSUL 68-76
+7.5
8
@NJIT
NJITW 74-53
+14.5
10
@HALL
HALLL 59-82
−8.5
14
vsSTO
STOW 73-71
−4.5
16
vsL-MD
L-MDW 85-82
−2.5
22
@LEM
LEMW 97-83
+12.5
26
vsCOLU
COLUL 77-106
−25.5
30
vsUNH
UNHW 72-68
−5.5
5
@MAN
MANL 66-70
−5.5
7
@MRMK
MRMKL 63-74
−7.5
14
vsMONM
MONMW 73-65
+10.5
18
@CCSU
CCSUW 84-70
+20.5
29
vsSPU
SPUL 66-70
−6.5
2
@CAN
CANL 81-85
−10.5
4
@NIA
NIAW 83-75
+4.5
9
vsRID
RIDW 68-62
−2.5
14
vsMAN
MANW 98-62
+29.5
17
@MRST
MRSTL 67-82
−6.5
19
@SIE
SIEL 77-85
−1.5
22
vsNIA
NIAW 62-61
−9.5
24
vsCAN
CANW 61-55
−4.5
30
@IONA
IONAW 71-70
+2.5
1
vsQUIN
QUINL 65-72
−4.5
5
@SHU
SHUW 92-87
+6.5
7
vsMRST
MRSTW 63-60
+4.5
15
@SPU
SPUL 74-83
−5.5
20
vsSHU
SHUW 78-68
+5.5
22
@QUIN
QUINW 85-79
+12.5
27
vsSIE
SIEW 72-58
+15.5
covered 13didn’t cover 16avg +1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@PSU
PSUL 68-76
−7.5
8
@NJIT
NJITW 74-53
−18.5
10
@HALL
HALLL 59-82
+3.5
14
vsSTO
STOW 73-71
+0.5
16
vsL-MD
L-MDW 85-82
+31.5
22
@LEM
LEMW 97-83
+34.5
26
vsCOLU
COLUL 77-106
+32.5
30
vsUNH
UNHW 72-68
−7.5
5
@MAN
MANL 66-70
−19.5
7
@MRMK
MRMKL 63-74
−7.5
14
vsMONM
MONMW 73-65
−5.5
18
@CCSU
CCSUW 84-70
+10.5
29
vsSPU
SPUL 66-70
−4.5
2
@CAN
CANL 81-85
+25.5
4
@NIA
NIAW 83-75
+19.5
9
vsRID
RIDW 68-62
−15.5
14
vsMAN
MANW 98-62
+1.5
17
@MRST
MRSTL 67-82
+7.5
19
@SIE
SIEL 77-85
+19.5
22
vsNIA
NIAW 62-61
−16.5
24
vsCAN
CANW 61-55
−25.5
30
@IONA
IONAW 71-70
−5.5
1
vsQUIN
QUINL 65-72
−17.5
5
@SHU
SHUW 92-87
+23.5
7
vsMRST
MRSTW 63-60
−15.5
15
@SPU
SPUL 74-83
+15.5
20
vsSHU
SHUW 78-68
−12.5
22
@QUIN
QUINW 85-79
+13.5
27
vsSIE
SIEW 72-58
−12.5
over 14under 15avg +1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Mount St Marys
13-16 overall · 10-9 in conference · Metro Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Sacred Heart69–77
- Wvs Canisius68–47
- Wvs Niagara76–63
- W@ Rider65–55
- W@ Iona83–76
2 days since their last game.
Fairfield
18-11 overall · 11-8 in conference · Metro Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Siena72–58
- W@ Quinnipiac85–79
- Wvs Sacred Heart78–68
- L@ Saint Peter's74–83
- Wvs Marist63–60
2 days since their last game.