Coleman Coliseum · at Alabama · Conference game
Closing line
ALA -12.5✓ ALA covered by 12.5
ALA -12.5✓ ALA covered by 12.5Closing total176.5Under by 1.5
 MSST | This season | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| 13-14 | Record | 20-7 |
| 10-17 | ATS | 11-16 |
| 14-13 | O/U | 16-11 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MSST 81–96 ALA · ✓ ALA (89%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSST | 33 | 42 | 75 |
| ALA | 63 | 37 | 100 |
1st half: MSST 33, ALA 63 (ALA by 30). The model had ALA by 8.3 and a total of 82.7 (actual 96).
Team stats
| MSST | ALA | |
|---|---|---|
| 27-71 38% | Field goals | 34-71 48% |
| 15-41 37% | 3-pointers | 22-50 44% |
| 6-12 50% | Free throws | 10-13 77% |
| 36 12 off | Rebounds | 48 15 off |
| 15 | Assists | 23 |
| 8 | Steals | 6 |
| 4 | Blocks | 1 |
| 12 | Turnovers | 13 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 22 | Points in paint | 24 |
| 12 | Fast-break points | 15 |
Players
| MSST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hubbard G | 32 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 4-13 | 2-6 |
| Jayden Epps G | 28 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 3-12 | 2-8 |
| Achor Achor F | 24 | 18 | 7 | 0 | 7-14 | 3-7 |
| Shawn Jones Jr. G | 22 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2-7 | 2-7 |
| Quincy Ballard C | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jamarion Davis-Fleming F | 30 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Sergej Macura F | 17 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| King Grace G | 14 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 4-9 | 3-5 |
| Dellquan Warren G | 11 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-2 |
| Ja'Borri McGhee G | 11 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2-6 | 2-4 |
| Amier Ali F | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-3 | 1-1 |
Did not play: Brandon Walker, Gai Chol, Tee Bartlett, Cameren Paul
| ALA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aden Holloway G | 29 | 16 | 7 | 10 | 6-14 | 3-9 |
| Latrell Wrightsell Jr. G | 29 | 18 | 6 | 5 | 5-13 | 4-10 |
| Amari Allen G | 26 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 8-10 | 6-7 |
| Aiden Sherrell F | 25 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3-6 | 2-4 |
| London Jemison F | 22 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 3-6 | 2-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Houston Mallette G | 21 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3-7 | 3-7 |
| Jalil Bethea G | 20 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2-7 | 1-4 |
| Taylor Bol Bowen F | 19 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4-5 | 1-2 |
| Noah Williamson C | 9 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
Did not play: Labaron Philon Jr., Preston Murphy Jr., Davion Hannah, Keitenn Bristow, Collins Onyejiaka, Jacob Martin, Klark James, Jack Fagan
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketALA -12.5
ModelALA -14.2
Model edgeALA +1.7
W ALA covered
Total
Market176.5
Model177.0
Model edgeOver 0.5
L Under
Projected score
MSST 81.4 · ALA 95.6
MSST 75 · ALA 100
Win probability
ALA 89%
1st half
Spread
ALA -8.3
ALA -30.0
Total
82.7
96 points
Projected score
MSST 37.2 · ALA 45.5
MSST 33 · ALA 63
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenALA -14.5
2 → MSST
CloseALA -12.5
2 pts toward MSST
Total
Open172.5
▲ 4
Close176.5
Up 4 since the open
Moneyline
MSST +700 · ALA -1100
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ALA -14.5 · closed ALA -12.5 · moved 2 toward MSSTmodel ALA -14
model ALA -14
Opened 172.5 · closed 176.5 · moved 4 upmodel 177
model 177
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSST | 3-7 30% | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% |
| ALA | 8-2 80% | 3-7 30% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22
MSST 1–9 ALAALA leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · ALA has won the last 9 meetings · MSST 3-7 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2025-26 | ALA 97 @ MSST 82 | MSST +4.5 | ALA W |
| Feb 25, 2024-25 | MSST 73 @ ALA 111 | ALA -8.5 | ALA W |
| Jan 29, 2024-25 | ALA 88 @ MSST 84 | MSST -0.5 | ALA W |
| Feb 3, 2023-24 | MSST 67 @ ALA 99 | ALA -8.5 | ALA W |
| Jan 13, 2023-24 | ALA 82 @ MSST 74 | MSST -1.5 | ALA W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Mississippi St
27 games played
Straight up
13-14
48% wins
Against the spread
10-17
37% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
14-13
52% overs · avg +2.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | vs UNA | W 86-62 | -24.5 | L −0.5 | 151.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 10 | vs ISU | L 80-96 | +5.5 | L −10.5 | 150.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 15 | vs SELA | W 75-68 | -27.5 | L −20.5 | 150.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 20 | vs KSU | L 77-98 | -2.5 | L −23.5 | 164.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 21 | vs UNM | L 78-80 | -6.5 | L −8.5 | 151.5 | O 158 |
| Nov 24 | vs NOLA | W 81-78 | -23.5 | L −20.5 | 160.5 | U 159 |
| Nov 28 | vs SMU | L 81-87 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 162.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 3 | @ GT | W 85-73 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 150.5 | O 158 |
| Dec 7 | vs SF | L 62-65 | -4.5 | L −7.5 | 150.5 | U 127 |
| Dec 13 | vs UTAH | W 82-74 | -1.5 | W +6.5 | 153.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 16 | vs LIU | W 87-83 | -16.5 | L −12.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 20 | vs MEM | W 71-66 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 153.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 29 | vs ALST | W 94-56 | -17.5 | W +20.5 | 154.5 | U 150 |
| Jan 3 | @ TEX | W 101-98 | +9.5 | W +12.5 | 157.5 | O 199 |
| Jan 7 | vs OU | W 72-53 | -1.5 | W +17.5 | 158.5 | U 125 |
| Jan 10 | @ UK | L 68-92 | +10.5 | L −13.5 | 152.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 13 | vsALA | L 82-97 | +4.5 | L −10.5 | 171.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 17 | vs MISS | L 67-68 | -3.5 | L −4.5 | 147.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 21 | @ TA&M | L 68-88 | +8.5 | L −11.5 | 163.5 | U 156 |
| Jan 24 | vs VAN | L 56-88 | +7.5 | L −24.5 | 159.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 28 | @ LSU | W 80-66 | +7.5 | W +21.5 | 154.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 31 | @ MIZ | L 79-84 | +6.5 | W +1.5 | 146.5 | O 163 |
| Feb 7 | vs ARK | L 68-88 | +5.5 | L −14.5 | 163.5 | U 156 |
| Feb 11 | vs TENN | L 64-73 | +8.5 | L −0.5 | 147.5 | U 137 |
| Feb 14 | @MISS | W 90-78 | +3.5 | W +15.5 | 146.5 | O 168 |
| Feb 18 | vs AUB | W 91-85 | +5.5 | W +11.5 | 155.5 | O 176 |
| Feb 21 | @ SC | L 89-97 | -1.5 | L −9.5 | 151.5 | O 186 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
5
vsUNA
UNAW 86-62
−0.5
10
vsISU
ISUL 80-96
−10.5
15
vsSELA
SELAW 75-68
−20.5
20
vsKSU
KSUL 77-98
−23.5
21
vsUNM
UNML 78-80
−8.5
24
vsNOLA
NOLAW 81-78
−20.5
28
vsSMU
SMUL 81-87
−7.5
3
@GT
GTW 85-73
+10.5
7
vsSF
SFL 62-65
−7.5
13
vsUTAH
UTAHW 82-74
+6.5
16
vsLIU
LIUW 87-83
−12.5
20
vsMEM
MEMW 71-66
+1.5
29
vsALST
ALSTW 94-56
+20.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 101-98
+12.5
7
vsOU
OUW 72-53
+17.5
10
@UK
UKL 68-92
−13.5
13
vsALA
ALAL 82-97
−10.5
17
vsMISS
MISSL 67-68
−4.5
21
@TA&M
TA&ML 68-88
−11.5
24
vsVAN
VANL 56-88
−24.5
28
@LSU
LSUW 80-66
+21.5
31
@MIZ
MIZL 79-84
+1.5
7
vsARK
ARKL 68-88
−14.5
11
vsTENN
TENNL 64-73
−0.5
14
@MISS
MISSW 90-78
+15.5
18
vsAUB
AUBW 91-85
+11.5
21
@SC
SCL 89-97
−9.5
covered 10didn’t cover 17avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
5
vsUNA
UNAW 86-62
−3.5
10
vsISU
ISUL 80-96
+25.5
15
vsSELA
SELAW 75-68
−7.5
20
vsKSU
KSUL 77-98
+10.5
21
vsUNM
UNML 78-80
+6.5
24
vsNOLA
NOLAW 81-78
−1.5
28
vsSMU
SMUL 81-87
+5.5
3
@GT
GTW 85-73
+7.5
7
vsSF
SFL 62-65
−23.5
13
vsUTAH
UTAHW 82-74
+2.5
16
vsLIU
LIUW 87-83
+17.5
20
vsMEM
MEMW 71-66
−16.5
29
vsALST
ALSTW 94-56
−4.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 101-98
+41.5
7
vsOU
OUW 72-53
−33.5
10
@UK
UKL 68-92
+7.5
13
vsALA
ALAL 82-97
+7.5
17
vsMISS
MISSL 67-68
−12.5
21
@TA&M
TA&ML 68-88
−7.5
24
vsVAN
VANL 56-88
−15.5
28
@LSU
LSUW 80-66
−8.5
31
@MIZ
MIZL 79-84
+16.5
7
vsARK
ARKL 68-88
−7.5
11
vsTENN
TENNL 64-73
−10.5
14
@MISS
MISSW 90-78
+21.5
18
vsAUB
AUBW 91-85
+20.5
21
@SC
SCL 89-97
+34.5
over 14under 13avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Alabama
27 games played
Straight up
20-7
74% wins
Against the spread
11-16
41% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
16-11
59% overs · avg +2.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs UND | W 91-62 | -36.5 | L −7.5 | 170.5 | U 153 |
| Nov 8 | @ SJU | W 103-96 | +4.5 | W +11.5 | 172.5 | O 199 |
| Nov 13 | vs PUR | L 80-87 | -3.5 | L −10.5 | 172.5 | U 167 |
| Nov 19 | vs ILL | W 90-86 | +2.5 | W +6.5 | 180.5 | U 176 |
| Nov 24 | vs GONZ | L 85-95 | +4.5 | L −5.5 | 178.5 | O 180 |
| Nov 25 | vs UNLV | W 115-76 | -13.5 | W +25.5 | 181.5 | O 191 |
| Nov 26 | vs MD | W 105-72 | -14.5 | W +18.5 | 166.5 | O 177 |
| Dec 3 | vs CLEM | W 90-84 | -8.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | O 174 |
| Dec 7 | vs UTSA | W 97-55 | -33.5 | W +8.5 | 171.5 | U 152 |
| Dec 13 | vs ARIZ | L 75-96 | +2.5 | L −18.5 | 178.5 | U 171 |
| Dec 17 | vs USF | W 104-93 | -14.5 | L −3.5 | 178.5 | O 197 |
| Dec 21 | vs KENN | W 92-81 | -20.5 | L −9.5 | 182.5 | U 173 |
| Dec 29 | vs YALE | W 102-78 | -15.5 | W +8.5 | 171.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 3 | vsUK | W 89-74 | -5.5 | W +9.5 | 173.5 | U 163 |
| Jan 7 | @VAN | L 90-96 | +3.5 | L −2.5 | 176.5 | O 186 |
| Jan 10 | vsTEX | L 88-92 | -11.5 | L −15.5 | 177.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 13 | @MSST | W 97-82 | -4.5 | W +10.5 | 171.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 17 | @OU | W 83-81 | -5.5 | L −3.5 | 177.5 | U 164 |
| Jan 24 | vsTENN | L 73-79 | -4.5 | L −10.5 | 167.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 27 | vsMIZ | W 90-64 | -10.5 | W +15.5 | 167.5 | U 154 |
| Feb 1 | @ FLA | L 77-100 | +9.5 | L −13.5 | 176.5 | O 177 |
| Feb 4 | vsTA&M | W 100-97 | -8.5 | L −5.5 | 180.5 | O 197 |
| Feb 7 | @AUB | W 96-92 | +2.5 | W +6.5 | 175.5 | O 188 |
| Feb 11 | @MISS | W 93-74 | -6.5 | W +12.5 | 164.5 | O 167 |
| Feb 14 | vsSC | W 89-75 | -17.5 | L −3.5 | 170.5 | U 164 |
| Feb 18 | vsARK | W 117-115 | -3.5 | L −1.5 | 181.5 | O 232 |
| Feb 21 | @LSU | W 90-83 | -7.5 | L −0.5 | 172.5 | O 173 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsUND
UNDW 91-62
−7.5
8
@SJU
SJUW 103-96
+11.5
13
vsPUR
PURL 80-87
−10.5
19
vsILL
ILLW 90-86
+6.5
24
vsGONZ
GONZL 85-95
−5.5
25
vsUNLV
UNLVW 115-76
+25.5
26
vsMD
MDW 105-72
+18.5
3
vsCLEM
CLEMW 90-84
−2.5
7
vsUTSA
UTSAW 97-55
+8.5
13
vsARIZ
ARIZL 75-96
−18.5
17
vsUSF
USFW 104-93
−3.5
21
vsKENN
KENNW 92-81
−9.5
29
vsYALE
YALEW 102-78
+8.5
3
vsUK
UKW 89-74
+9.5
7
@VAN
VANL 90-96
−2.5
10
vsTEX
TEXL 88-92
−15.5
13
@MSST
MSSTW 97-82
+10.5
17
@OU
OUW 83-81
−3.5
24
vsTENN
TENNL 73-79
−10.5
27
vsMIZ
MIZW 90-64
+15.5
1
@FLA
FLAL 77-100
−13.5
4
vsTA&M
TA&MW 100-97
−5.5
7
@AUB
AUBW 96-92
+6.5
11
@MISS
MISSW 93-74
+12.5
14
vsSC
SCW 89-75
−3.5
18
vsARK
ARKW 117-115
−1.5
21
@LSU
LSUW 90-83
−0.5
covered 11didn’t cover 16avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsUND
UNDW 91-62
−17.5
8
@SJU
SJUW 103-96
+26.5
13
vsPUR
PURL 80-87
−5.5
19
vsILL
ILLW 90-86
−4.5
24
vsGONZ
GONZL 85-95
+1.5
25
vsUNLV
UNLVW 115-76
+9.5
26
vsMD
MDW 105-72
+10.5
3
vsCLEM
CLEMW 90-84
+8.5
7
vsUTSA
UTSAW 97-55
−19.5
13
vsARIZ
ARIZL 75-96
−7.5
17
vsUSF
USFW 104-93
+18.5
21
vsKENN
KENNW 92-81
−9.5
29
vsYALE
YALEW 102-78
+8.5
3
vsUK
UKW 89-74
−10.5
7
@VAN
VANL 90-96
+9.5
10
vsTEX
TEXL 88-92
+2.5
13
@MSST
MSSTW 97-82
+7.5
17
@OU
OUW 83-81
−13.5
24
vsTENN
TENNL 73-79
−15.5
27
vsMIZ
MIZW 90-64
−13.5
1
@FLA
FLAL 77-100
+0.5
4
vsTA&M
TA&MW 100-97
+16.5
7
@AUB
AUBW 96-92
+12.5
11
@MISS
MISSW 93-74
+2.5
14
vsSC
SCW 89-75
−6.5
18
vsARK
ARKW 117-115
+50.5
21
@LSU
LSUW 90-83
+0.5
over 16under 11avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Mississippi St
13-14 overall · 5-9 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ South Carolina89–97
- Wvs Auburn91–85
- W@ Ole Miss90–78
- Lvs Tennessee64–73
- Lvs Arkansas68–88
4 days since their last game.
Alabama
20-7 overall · 10-4 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ LSU90–83
- Wvs Arkansas117–115
- Wvs South Carolina89–75
- W@ Ole Miss93–74
- W@ Auburn96–92
4 days since their last game.