When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
21 games · 2025 · New England Patriots · pick one to list those games
57% went over. Of the 12 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 25% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 19% of games.
All 21 games
2025 · New England Patriots · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Postseason |
SEA -4.5 | 45.5 | 391242 | U | SEA Q2 | 29–13 |
2025 · Postseason |
NE -3.5 | 43.5 | 7141717 | U | DEN Q1 | 10–7 |
2025 · Postseason |
NE -3 | 40.5 | 10313744 | Q4 | NE Q1 | 16–28 |
2025 · Postseason |
NE -3.5 | 45.5 | 091219 | U | NE Q3 | 3–16 |
2025 · Week 18 |
NE -14.5 | 43.5 | 14274148 | Q4 | NE Q3 | 10–38 |
2025 · Week 17 |
NE -12.5 | 42.5 | 14384552 | Q3 | NE Q1 | 42–10 |
2025 · Week 16 |
BAL -3.5 | 47.5 | 7203052 | Q4 | NE Q4 Late over Lead lost |
28–24 |
2025 · Week 15 |
BUF -2.5 | 49.5 | 14314566 | Q4 | BUF Q4 | 35–31 |
2025 · Week 13 |
NE -7 | 46.5 | 17373748 | Q4 | NE Q1 Late over |
15–33 |
2025 · Week 12 |
NE -7.5 | 50.5 | 3303346 | U | CIN Q1 Late cover flip |
26–20 |
2025 · Week 11 |
NE -12.5 | 42.5 | 7213541 | U | NE Q4 | 14–27 |
2025 · Week 10 |
TB -2.5 | 48.5 | 14243751 | Q4 | NE Q1 Late over |
28–23 |
2025 · Week 9 |
NE -5.5 | 45.5 | 14353847 | Q4 | ATL Q4 Late cover flip Late over |
23–24 |
2025 · Week 8 |
NE -6.5 | 40.5 | 10163745 | Q4 | NE Q3 | 13–32 |
2025 · Week 7 |
NE -6.5 | 41.5 | 13304444 | Q3 | NE Q3 | 31–13 |
2025 · Week 6 |
NE -3.5 | 46.5 | 20384144 | U | NE Q1 | 25–19 |
2025 · Week 5 |
BUF -7.5 | 48.5 | 392343 | U | NE Q1 | 23–20 |
2025 · Week 4 |
NE -3 | 42.5 | 13344155 | Q4 | NE Q2 | 13–42 |
2025 · Week 3 |
PIT -1.5 | 44.5 | 7212135 | U | PIT Q1 Late cover flip |
21–14 |
2025 · Week 2 |
MIA -2.5 | 42.5 | 12294360 | Q3 | NE Q1 | 33–27 |
2025 · Week 1 |
NE -2.5 | 44.5 | 14172733 | U | LV Q3 | 20–13 |
SEA
NE
DEN
HOU
LAC
MIA
NYJ
BAL
BUF
NYG
CIN
TB
ATL
CLE
TEN
NO
CAR
PIT
LVWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 48% 10
Q2 10% 2
Q3 24% 5
Q4 19% 4
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 89% and covered 79% of 19 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 90% and covered 76% of 21 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 1–3 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 4–7 | 4 | 75% 3 |
| 8–10 | 3 | 67% 2 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 18–21 | 3 | 33% 1 |
| 22+ | 5 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.