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NFL game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

When did they go over?

214 games · 2023 · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games214100%By halftime42%In Q32110%In Q47535%In OT00%Stayed under11453%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands2411%Over cashed3617%Leader lost the game2512%
48% went over. Of the 100 overs, 4% had cashed by halftime and 25% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 20% of games.

Went over in Q3: 21 games

2023 · newest first
Show all games
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Postseason
 DAL -7 52 7345780 Q3 GB Q1 48–32
2023 · Postseason
 CLE -2.5 45 17385259 Q3 HOU Q1 14–45
2023 · Week 18
 NO -3 41.5 21344865 Q3 NO Q3 17–48
2023 · Week 17
 SEA -4 40.5 7314153 Q3 PIT Q1 30–23
2023 · Week 17
 BUF -15.5 40 20344148 Q3 NE Q1 21–27
2023 · Week 17
 BAL -3 47 17414875 Q3 BAL Q2 19–56
2023 · Week 16
 NYJ -3 36 17344158 Q3 WSH Q4
Late cover flip
 28–30
2023 · Week 16
 CIN -3 39 7244245 Q3 PIT Q1 11–34
2023 · Week 15
 SF -12 48 21345174 Q3 SF Q3 45–29
2023 · Week 15
 GB -4 41 10234454 Q3 TB Q2 34–20
2023 · Week 13
 JAX -10 41 728496265 Q3 CIN Q1 34–31
2023 · Week 13
 MIA -8.5 49.5 17385360 Q3 MIA Q1 45–15
2023 · Week 13
 DAL -9.5 47.5 17415576 Q3 SEA Q1
Lead lost
 35–41
2023 · Week 10
 DAL -17.5 39 7284966 Q3 DAL Q2 17–49
2023 · Week 10
 DET -2.5 48 13415579 Q3 DET Q1 41–38
2023 · Week 10
 PIT -3 38 14303942 Q3 PIT Q4 19–23
2023 · Week 10
 BAL -6 39 20264164 Q3 CLE Q4
Lead lost
 33–31
2023 · Week 9
 ATL -4.5 37.5 6214259 Q3 MIN Q1 31–28
2023 · Week 9
 HOU -2.5 39.5 17274576 Q3 TB Q1
Late cover flip
 37–39
2023 · Week 8
 DAL -7 44.5 20425363 Q3 DAL Q1 20–43
2023 · Week 8
 NO -2 44 14414865 Q3 NO Q3 38–27
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 47% 100
Q2 21% 44
Q3 10% 21
Q4 19% 40
OT 1% 2
Push 3% 7
The team leading at halftime won 79% and covered 72% of 199 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 85% and covered 79% of 200 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over25100% 25
1–313100% 13
4–72793% 25
8–102638% 10
11–142952% 15
15–173023% 7
18–21339% 3
22+316% 2
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.