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NCAAB · Wed, Dec 2

Louisiana Tech @ Texas St

Strahan Arena at the University Events Center · at Texas St
#244LTLouisiana Tech
@
#103TXSTTexas St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
LTThis seasonTXST
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TXST 79–65 · win probability TXST 88%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 143.6
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TXST has more of the edges

LT 0, TXST 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
TXSTBig
LT offense vs TXST defense
Offense 302nd of 366 against a defense 112th, on the model’s ratings
TXSTSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: LT 11%, TXST 69%. Transfers in: LT 0, TXST 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Schedule so far
LT has played the 197th-hardest schedule, TXST the 299th. A record against a soft schedule means less
TXSTSmall
TXST offense vs LT defense
Offense 105th of 366 against a defense 184th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: LT plays 65.5 a game (332nd fastest), TXST 68.2 (223rd). Faster games mean more points
TXSTSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: LT 36.4%, TXST 33.9%. Defensive: LT 68.4%, TXST 71.6%
TXSTSmall
Home court
TXST at home. This season: TXST 0-0 at home, LT 0-0 away
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: LT 47.4 and allows 48.7; TXST 50.0 and allows 52.0
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: LT 33.1, TXST 34.0. Allowed: LT 36.3, TXST 39.0
Even
Three-pointers
LT hits 28.6% and allows 33.9%; TXST hits 32.2% and allows 35.7%. Threes are 33.4% and 24.6% of their shots
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: LT 18.2%, TXST 18.7%. Forced: LT 17.9%, TXST 18.5%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelTXST -13.4
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model143.6
Model edge—
Projected score
LT 65.1 · TXST 78.5
Win probability
TXST 88%
1st half
Spread
TXST -7.8
Total
67.2
Projected score
LT 29.7 · TXST 37.5
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Texas St has the better starters

Position by position: Louisiana Tech 0, Texas St 1, even 4
Louisiana TechBetterTexas St
G J. Fenner5.3 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.8 ast Score 27
TXSTSmall
G M. Drone14 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.9 ast Score 56
G D. Bates NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
G Q. House TR15.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 3.3 ast Score 84
G K. Tilley NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
G K. Younger TR15.1 pts · 4.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 76
F E. Blackmon NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
F D. Hall15.7 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.3 ast Score 94
F L. Rowe NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
F P. Djobet TR17.5 pts · 6.6 reb · 2 ast Score 89
Louisiana TechBetterTexas St
LT offense302nd of 366 · -9.4
TXSTBig
TXST defense112th of 366 · -1.4
LT defense184th of 366 · -4.3
TXSTSmall
TXST offense105th of 366 · -1.4
Backcourt-1.6 · 3 players
TXSTBig
Backcourt+2.5 · 3 players
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Frontcourt+7.5 · 2 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench-0.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestLT betterTXST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Louisiana Tech
Guards
J. Fenner22 minD. BatesNewK. TilleyNewJ. TylerNewJ. SandersonNewA. BoydNew
Forwards
E. BlackmonNewL. RoweNewB. WengerNewI. EmelifeNewI. FrancisNew
Texas St
Guards
M. Drone31 minQ. House31 min · TRK. Younger29 min · TRK. Gumbs28 minD. Pernell22 minC. Steger11 min · TR
Forwards
D. Hall30 minP. Djobet30 min · TRR. Jessamy27 min · TRK. GrandisonNewD. AbisogunNewK. SandersNew
Centers
R. Fields16 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
LTTXST
Scoring
67.8 #318Points per game71.9 #247
1.03 #284Points per possession1.06 #230
65.5 #332Pace (possessions)68.2 #223
Shooting
47.4 #329Effective FG%50.0 #238
28.6 #3593-point %32.2 #271
33.4 #3103-point attempt rate24.6 #364
33.1 #234Free throw rate34.0 #211
Possessions
18.2 #283Turnover rate18.7 #309
36.4 #21Offensive rebound rate33.9 #68
11.9 #297Assists per game12.7 #239
Defense
67.8 #30Points allowed72.5 #117
1.04 #75Points allowed per possession1.06 #106
48.7 #51Opponent effective FG%52.0 #210
33.9 #178Opponent 3-point %35.7 #293
17.9 #102Turnovers forced18.5 #75
68.4 #232Defensive rebound rate71.6 #81
6.8 #144Steals per game7.9 #41
4.6 #31Blocks per game3.6 #120
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Louisiana Tech

17-14 in 2025-26 overall · 13-10 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Kennesaw St60–71
  • Wvs Missouri St69–66
  • Wvs MTSU80–69
  • W@ Delaware81–38
  • W@ Liberty76–71

A week or more of rest.

Texas St

17-13 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Southern Miss77–81
  • Wvs App State60–57
  • L@ Louisiana54–67
  • W@ South Alabama90–82
  • Wvs UL Monroe95–84

A week or more of rest.