Southern Illinois Salukis at Kansas City Roos: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 6, 12:00 AM ETSwinney Center · at Kansas City

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: S Illinois and Kansas City
SIU	This season	KC
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SIU 77–69 · win probability SIU 76%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 145.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SIU has more of the edges

SIU 6, KC 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

SIUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SIU 30.9%, KC 26.4%. Defensive: SIU 72.7%, KC 64.1%

SIUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: SIU 49.1 and allows 49.0; KC 45.8 and allows 56.3

SIUBig

Three-pointers

SIU hits 27.8% and allows 30.4%; KC hits 28.4% and allows 37.5%. Threes are 29.2% and 36.8% of their shots

SIUBig

KC offense vs SIU defense

Offense 321st of 366 against a defense 181st, on the model’s ratings

SIUSmall

SIU offense vs KC defense

Offense 227th of 366 against a defense 335th, on the model’s ratings

SIUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SIU 17.1%, KC 18.2%. Forced: SIU 18.5%, KC 16.4%

Context

Schedule so far

SIU has played the 139th-hardest schedule, KC the 235th. A record against a soft schedule means less

KCSmall

Home court

KC at home. This season: KC 0-0 at home, SIU 0-0 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SIU 22%, KC 0%. Transfers in: SIU 0, KC 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: SIU 31.3, KC 29.2. Allowed: SIU 31.4, KC 31.4

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: SIU plays 70.6 a game (91st fastest), KC 71.8 (45th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	SIU -8.1	—
Total	—	145.5	—
Projected score	—	SIU 76.8 · KC 68.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SIU -5.0	—
1H total	68.1	—
1H projected score	SIU 36.5 · KC 31.6	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SIU WWWWL	16-15	52%	10-5	—
KC LLLLL	5-23	18%	1-10	—

Venue/role: SIU away; KC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
SIU UUUOU	9-22	29%	15-16
KC OOUOU	16-12	57%	1-27

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SIU	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%
KC	0-10 0%	0-10 0%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

S Illinois

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 12	vs RICH	L84–93LO
Nov 17	vs LIB	No recent meeting
Nov 20	vs UTM	W83–54WU

Kansas City

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 9	@ JAX	No recent meeting
Nov 11	vs FAMU	No recent meeting
Nov 12	vs GMU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

SIU 1–0 KCSIU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · SIU 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 7, 2025-26	KC 78 @ SIU 101	SIU -12.5	SIU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

S Illinois

31 games played

Straight up

15-16

48% wins

Against the spread

16-15

52% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

9-22

29% overs · avg −5.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1648%

W L L W L L W W W L L L L W W L L L L W L W L W W L W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1552%

W W L W L L L W W L L W W L W L L L L W L W L W W L W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

9-2229%

O O O U U U U O U O U U U U U U O U U U U U O U O U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsKC	W 101-78	-12.5	W +10.5	141.5	O 179
Nov 12	@NEV	L 81-86	+11.5	W +6.5	152.5	O 167
Nov 17	@NDSU	L 85-92	+1.5	L −5.5	153.5	O 177
Nov 23	vsDEL	W 79-59	-8.5	W +11.5	153.5	U 138
Nov 24	vsUAB	L 73-81	+2.5	L −5.5	161.5	U 154
Nov 26	@MEM	L 58-74	+10.5	L −5.5	156.5	U 132
Nov 29	vsLR	W 74-65	-13.5	L −4.5	141.5	U 139
Dec 3	@HPU	W 86-84	+9.5	W +11.5	162.5	O 170
Dec 10	vsUTM	W 83-54	-8.5	W +20.5	146.5	U 137
Dec 13	@RICH	L 84-93	+3.5	L −5.5	153.5	O 177
Dec 18	vsILST	L 68-75	-1.5	L −8.5	153.5	U 143
Dec 21	@BRAD	L 69-73	+6.5	W +2.5	152.5	U 142
Dec 29	@MUR	L 81-84	+6.5	W +3.5	165.5	U 165
Jan 1	vsVAL	W 75-70	-7.5	L −2.5	145.5	U 145
Jan 4	@BEL	W 68-67	+6.5	W +7.5	158.5	U 135
Jan 7	@UIC	L 57-70	-1.5	L −14.5	146.5	U 127
Jan 14	vsDRKE	L 73-76	-5.5	L −8.5	144.5	O 149
Jan 17	vsBEL	L 68-73	+3.5	L −1.5	151.5	U 141
Jan 21	@VAL	L 63-69	+1.5	L −4.5	142.5	U 132
Jan 28	vsUNI	W 65-50	+1.5	W +16.5	130.5	U 115
Jan 31	vsUIC	L 66-68	-3.5	L −5.5	142.5	U 134
Feb 3	@ILST	W 54-50	+8.5	W +12.5	140.5	U 104
Feb 6	vsMUR	L 81-91	+1.5	L −8.5	157.5	O 172
Feb 9	@INST	W 80-65	-1.5	W +13.5	146.5	U 145
Feb 12	vsEVAN	W 86-60	-12.5	W +13.5	142.5	O 146
Feb 15	vsBRAD	L 60-70	-2.5	L −12.5	146.5	U 130
Feb 18	@DRKE	W 66-61	-1.5	W +3.5	149.5	U 127
Feb 21	@UNI	W 59-57	+6.5	W +8.5	134.5	U 116
Feb 25	vsINST	W 66-55	-8.5	W +2.5	147.5	U 121
Mar 1	@EVAN	W 81-67	-9.5	W +4.5	139.5	O 148
Mar 5	vsDRKE	L 63-67	-5.5	L −9.5	140.5	U 130

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 101-78

+10.5

NEV

L 81-86

+6.5

NDSU

L 85-92

−5.5

DEL

W 79-59

+11.5

UAB

L 73-81

−5.5

MEM

L 58-74

−5.5

W 74-65

−4.5

HPU

W 86-84

+11.5

UTM

W 83-54

+20.5

RICH

L 84-93

−5.5

ILST

L 68-75

−8.5

BRAD

L 69-73

+2.5

MUR

L 81-84

+3.5

VAL

W 75-70

−2.5

BEL

W 68-67

+7.5

UIC

L 57-70

−14.5

DRKE

L 73-76

−8.5

BEL

L 68-73

−1.5

VAL

L 63-69

−4.5

UNI

W 65-50

+16.5

UIC

L 66-68

−5.5

ILST

W 54-50

+12.5

MUR

L 81-91

−8.5

INST

W 80-65

+13.5

EVAN

W 86-60

+13.5

BRAD

L 60-70

−12.5

DRKE

W 66-61

+3.5

UNI

W 59-57

+8.5

INST

W 66-55

+2.5

EVAN

W 81-67

+4.5

DRKE

L 63-67

−9.5

covered 16didn’t cover 15avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 101-78

+37.5

NEV

L 81-86

+14.5

NDSU

L 85-92

+23.5

DEL

W 79-59

−15.5

UAB

L 73-81

−7.5

MEM

L 58-74

−24.5

W 74-65

−2.5

HPU

W 86-84

+7.5

UTM

W 83-54

−9.5

RICH

L 84-93

+23.5

ILST

L 68-75

−10.5

BRAD

L 69-73

−10.5

MUR

L 81-84

−0.5

VAL

W 75-70

−0.5

BEL

W 68-67

−23.5

UIC

L 57-70

−19.5

DRKE

L 73-76

+4.5

BEL

L 68-73

−10.5

VAL

L 63-69

−10.5

UNI

W 65-50

−15.5

UIC

L 66-68

−8.5

ILST

W 54-50

−36.5

MUR

L 81-91

+14.5

INST

W 80-65

−1.5

EVAN

W 86-60

+3.5

BRAD

L 60-70

−16.5

DRKE

W 66-61

−22.5

UNI

W 59-57

−18.5

INST

W 66-55

−26.5

EVAN

W 81-67

+8.5

DRKE

L 63-67

−10.5

over 9under 22avg −5.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Kansas City

28 games played

Straight up

1-27

4% wins

Against the spread

5-23

18% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-12

57% overs · avg +0 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-274%

L L L L L L L L L L L L W L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L

15 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-2318%

L L W L L L L L W W W L W L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L

15 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1257%

O O U U U U U O U O O O U O O O O U U O O U O O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@SIU	L 78-101	+12.5	L −10.5	141.5	O 179
Nov 11	vsIONA	L 91-105	+4.5	L −9.5	156.5	O 196
Nov 15	@TEX	L 55-71	+31.5	W +15.5	159.5	U 126
Nov 19	@TCU	L 45-81	+23.5	L −12.5	150.5	U 126
Nov 24	@LIN	L 67-80	+4.5	L −8.5	152.5	U 147
Nov 29	@WEB	L 61-82	+10.5	L −10.5	155.5	U 143
Dec 3	vsIDST	L 59-68	+5.5	L −3.5	137.5	U 127
Dec 6	@EWU	L 66-90	+9.5	L −14.5	151.5	O 156
Dec 10	vsWEB	L 60-64	+7.5	W +3.5	150.5	U 124
Dec 16	@OU	L 67-89	+30.5	W +8.5	153.5	O 156
Dec 18	@OKST	L 79-91	+27.5	W +15.5	161.5	O 170
Dec 31	@DEN	L 74-87	+9.5	L −3.5	156.5	O 161
Jan 3	@OMA	W 73-66	+8.5	W +15.5	148.5	U 139
Jan 8	vsNDSU	L 73-97	+9.5	L −14.5	144.5	O 170
Jan 10	vsUND	L 79-81	-1.5	L −3.5	146.5	O 160
Jan 15	@SDAK	L 83-99	+7.5	L −8.5	156.5	O 182
Jan 17	@SDST	L 62-90	+13.5	L −14.5	151.5	O 152
Jan 24	vsOMA	L 60-77	+4.5	L −12.5	148.5	U 137
Jan 28	vsDEN	L 61-69	+3.5	L −4.5	161.5	U 130
Feb 1	@STMN	L 64-99	+17.5	L −17.5	151.5	O 163
Feb 4	vsSDAK	L 75-82	+2.5	L −4.5	156.5	O 157
Feb 12	@ORU	L 60-69	+6.5	L −2.5	150.5	U 129
Feb 14	vsSTMN	L 64-104	+12.5	L −27.5	154.5	O 168
Feb 19	@UND	L 70-85	+9.5	L −5.5	150.5	O 155
Feb 21	@NDSU	L 59-95	+19.5	L −16.5	148.5	O 154
Feb 26	vsSDST	L 59-73	+12.5	L −1.5	152.5	U 132
Feb 28	vsORU	L 70-94	+3.5	L −20.5	149.5	O 164
Mar 4	vsORU	L 62-84	+8.5	L −13.5	149.5	U 146

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SIU

L 78-101

−10.5

IONA

L 91-105

−9.5

TEX

L 55-71

+15.5

TCU

L 45-81

−12.5

LIN

L 67-80

−8.5

WEB

L 61-82

−10.5

IDST

L 59-68

−3.5

EWU

L 66-90

−14.5

WEB

L 60-64

+3.5

L 67-89

+8.5

OKST

L 79-91

+15.5

DEN

L 74-87

−3.5

OMA

W 73-66

+15.5

NDSU

L 73-97

−14.5

UND

L 79-81

−3.5

SDAK

L 83-99

−8.5

SDST

L 62-90

−14.5

OMA

L 60-77

−12.5

DEN

L 61-69

−4.5

STMN

L 64-99

−17.5

SDAK

L 75-82

−4.5

ORU

L 60-69

−2.5

STMN

L 64-104

−27.5

UND

L 70-85

−5.5

NDSU

L 59-95

−16.5

SDST

L 59-73

−1.5

ORU

L 70-94

−20.5

ORU

L 62-84

−13.5

covered 5didn’t cover 23avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SIU

L 78-101

+37.5

IONA

L 91-105

+39.5

TEX

L 55-71

−33.5

TCU

L 45-81

−24.5

LIN

L 67-80

−5.5

WEB

L 61-82

−12.5

IDST

L 59-68

−10.5

EWU

L 66-90

+4.5

WEB

L 60-64

−26.5

L 67-89

+2.5

OKST

L 79-91

+8.5

DEN

L 74-87

+4.5

OMA

W 73-66

−9.5

NDSU

L 73-97

+25.5

UND

L 79-81

+13.5

SDAK

L 83-99

+25.5

SDST

L 62-90

+0.5

OMA

L 60-77

−11.5

DEN

L 61-69

−31.5

STMN

L 64-99

+11.5

SDAK

L 75-82

+0.5

ORU

L 60-69

−21.5

STMN

L 64-104

+13.5

UND

L 70-85

+4.5

NDSU

L 59-95

+5.5

SDST

L 59-73

−20.5

ORU

L 70-94

+14.5

ORU

L 62-84

−3.5

over 16under 12avg +0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

S Illinois has the better starters

Position by position: S Illinois 1, Kansas City 0, even 4

S IllinoisBetterKansas City

G J. Haynes7.9 pts · 2.4 reb · 2.1 ast Score 71

SIUSmall

G C. Daughtery TR10 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 45

G C. Hawkins1.1 pts · 0.3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

No call

G J. Smith TR9.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 3 ast Score 43

F M. Pikaar1.7 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.3 ast Score 19

Even

G M. Samar TR4.7 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.4 ast Score 28

F D. Hill NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

F S. Hartmann TR8.2 pts · 5 reb · 0.8 ast Not ranked

C J. Webber1.2 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

No call

F A. Diop TR5.5 pts · 4.7 reb · 0.9 ast Score 29

S IllinoisBetterKansas City

SIU offense227th of 366 · -7.0

SIUSmall

KC defense335th of 366 · -8.8

SIU defense181st of 366 · -4.1

SIUBig

KC offense321st of 366 · -10.5

Backcourt+0.1 · 2 players

SIUBig

Backcourt-3.0 · 3 players

Frontcourt-1.0 · 3 players

Even

Frontcourt-1.8 · 2 players

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestSIU betterKC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

S Illinois

Guards

J. Haynes21 minC. Hawkins5 minB. McClureNewJ. FugateNewL. WalshNewJ. JacksonNew

Forwards

M. Pikaar11 minD. HillNewD. PauliukonisNewP. RanieriNewT. LaurNew

Centers

J. Webber7 min

Kansas City

Guards

C. Daughtery27 min · TRJ. Smith25 min · TRM. Samar16 min · TRE. MoskowitzNewD. JacksonNewC. LoveNew

Forwards

S. Hartmann24 min · TRA. Diop19 min · TRR. ButirinsNewJ. SickingNewA. BakhtadzeNewM. Bruce-McCrommonNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SIU72.7 #229

KC67.0 #334

Points per possession

SIU1.03 #285

KC0.93 #361

Pace (possessions)

SIU70.6 #91

KC71.8 #45

Shooting

Effective FG%

SIU49.1 #286

KC45.8 #352

3-point %

SIU27.8 #363

KC28.4 #360

3-point attempt rate

SIU29.2 #355

KC36.8 #235

Free throw rate

SIU31.3 #275

KC29.2 #330

Possessions

Turnover rate

SIU17.1 #207

KC18.2 #282

Offensive rebound rate

SIU30.9 #167

KC26.4 #314

Assists per game

SIU13.3 #188

KC11.3 #324

Defense

Points allowed

SIU70.5 #62

KC84.8 #359

Points allowed per possession

SIU1.00 #25

KC1.18 #348

Opponent effective FG%

SIU49.0 #70

KC56.3 #348

Opponent 3-point %

SIU30.4 #17

KC37.5 #350

Turnovers forced

SIU18.5 #74

KC16.4 #193

Defensive rebound rate

SIU72.7 #44

KC64.1 #353

Steals per game

SIU8.0 #38

KC6.4 #192

Blocks per game

SIU3.4 #157

KC3.1 #195

SIU		KC
Scoring
72.7 #229	Points per game	67.0 #334
1.03 #285	Points per possession	0.93 #361
70.6 #91	Pace (possessions)	71.8 #45
Shooting
49.1 #286	Effective FG%	45.8 #352
27.8 #363	3-point %	28.4 #360
29.2 #355	3-point attempt rate	36.8 #235
31.3 #275	Free throw rate	29.2 #330
Possessions
17.1 #207	Turnover rate	18.2 #282
30.9 #167	Offensive rebound rate	26.4 #314
13.3 #188	Assists per game	11.3 #324
Defense
70.5 #62	Points allowed	84.8 #359
1.00 #25	Points allowed per possession	1.18 #348
49.0 #70	Opponent effective FG%	56.3 #348
30.4 #17	Opponent 3-point %	37.5 #350
18.5 #74	Turnovers forced	16.4 #193
72.7 #44	Defensive rebound rate	64.1 #353
8.0 #38	Steals per game	6.4 #192
3.4 #157	Blocks per game	3.1 #195

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

S Illinois

15-16 in 2025-26 overall · 10-11 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Drake63–67
W@ Evansville81–67
Wvs Indiana St66–55
W@ Northern Iowa59–57
W@ Drake66–61

A week or more of rest.

Kansas City

1-27 in 2025-26 overall · 1-16 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Oral Roberts62–84
Lvs Oral Roberts70–94
Lvs S Dakota St59–73
L@ N Dakota St59–95
L@ North Dakota70–85

A week or more of rest.

Southern Illinois Salukis at Kansas City Roos

What could decide it: SIU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

S Illinois

Kansas City

S Illinois has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

S Illinois

Kansas City