1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 6
  3. UNCG @ ELON
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 6

UNC Greensboro Spartans at Elon Phoenix

Schar Center · at Elon
#284UNCGUNC Greensboro
@
#231ELONElon
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UNCGThis seasonELON
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ELON 79–72 · win probability ELON 71%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 151.1
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ELON has more of the edges

UNCG 1, ELON 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UNCGBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: UNCG 42.0, ELON 33.5. Allowed: UNCG 30.6, ELON 34.6
ELONSmall
ELON offense vs UNCG defense
Offense 225th of 366 against a defense 299th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
UNCG has played the 256th-hardest schedule, ELON the 186th. A record against a soft schedule means less
ELONSmall
Home court
ELON at home. This season: ELON 0-0 at home, UNCG 0-0 away
ELONSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UNCG 5%, ELON 30%. Transfers in: UNCG 6, ELON 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UNCG 15.0%, ELON 16.0%. Forced: UNCG 13.6%, ELON 16.4%
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UNCG 28.1%, ELON 32.3%. Defensive: UNCG 71.0%, ELON 66.5%
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: UNCG 52.0 and allows 56.2; ELON 52.2 and allows 54.0
Even
UNCG offense vs ELON defense
Offense 260th of 366 against a defense 235th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Three-pointers
UNCG hits 35.6% and allows 38.0%; ELON hits 34.3% and allows 36.5%. Threes are 40.2% and 43.2% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: UNCG plays 69.3 a game (157th fastest), ELON 69.0 (178th). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—ELON -6.4—
Total—151.1—
Projected score—UNCG 72.3 · ELON 78.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadELON -3.7—
1H total70.6—
1H projected scoreUNCG 33.5 · ELON 37.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

UNC Greensboro has the better starters

Position by position: UNC Greensboro 2, Elon 1, even 2
UNC GreensboroBetterElon
G B. Stacker TR11.9 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 47
UNCGSmall
G R. Pettus11 pts · 3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 28
G C. Grant TR2.2 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 9
ELONBig
G B. Cokley12.4 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 60
F Z. Fitch TR6.1 pts · 5.3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 31
UNCGSmall
G I. Mbeng TR4.5 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 12
F V. Collins TR1 pts · 3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G C. Thrower TR5.9 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.2 ast Score 33
F A. Beljan TR2.2 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked
No call
F J. Dalton TR3.4 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 38
UNC GreensboroBetterElon
UNCG offense260th of 366 · -8.0
Even
ELON defense235th of 366 · -6.2
UNCG defense299th of 366 · -7.7
ELONSmall
ELON offense225th of 366 · -6.9
Backcourt-2.1 · 2 players
UNCGBig
Backcourt-5.7 · 4 players
Frontcourt-1.9 · 3 players
ELONSmall
Frontcourt-0.5 · 1 player
Bench-0.5 · 3 players
Even
Bench-0.7 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestUNCG betterELON betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
UNC Greensboro
Guards
B. Stacker29 min · TRC. Grant11 min · TRC. Bailey6 minR. Greer6 min · TRB. MishakNewJ. ManiNew
Forwards
Z. Fitch23 min · TRV. Collins7 min · TRA. Beljan7 min · TRC. Bynum4 minC. LaFrentzNew
Elon
Guards
R. Pettus28 minB. Cokley27 minI. Mbeng23 min · TRC. Thrower17 min · TRR. Villar12 min · TRK. DixonNew
Forwards
J. Dalton13 min · TRI. Garmendia3 minA. Olander1 minM. ŠarenacNewB. SehlhorstNewC. ZhuNew
Centers
H. Harding7 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UNCGELON
Scoring
76.6 #128Points per game76.8 #123
1.11 #125Points per possession1.12 #111
69.3 #157Pace (possessions)69.0 #178
Shooting
52.0 #146Effective FG%52.2 #137
35.6 #803-point %34.3 #154
40.2 #1653-point attempt rate43.2 #107
42.0 #31Free throw rate33.5 #222
Possessions
15.0 #63Turnover rate16.0 #136
28.1 #259Offensive rebound rate32.3 #116
12.1 #283Assists per game14.6 #108
Defense
81.9 #341Points allowed79.3 #307
1.18 #347Points allowed per possession1.14 #316
56.2 #347Opponent effective FG%54.0 #300
38.0 #357Opponent 3-point %36.5 #328
13.6 #343Turnovers forced16.4 #196
71.0 #104Defensive rebound rate66.5 #307
5.5 #301Steals per game6.6 #157
1.9 #350Blocks per game3.0 #231
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UNC Greensboro

13-19 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Furman75–81
  • Wvs Wofford75–72
  • Wvs VMI84–70
  • L@ Samford78–87
  • W@ Chattanooga85–80

A week or more of rest.

Elon

12-18 in 2025-26 overall · 6-13 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs William & Mary62–72
  • Lvs UNC Wilmington57–76
  • L@ Monmouth57–73
  • L@ Towson56–58
  • Lvs NC A&T82–102

A week or more of rest.