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NCAAB · Sat, Nov 21

N Arizona @ Cal Poly

Mott Athletics Center · at Cal Poly
#321NAUN Arizona
@
#164CPCal Poly
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
NAUThis seasonCP
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CP 86–73 · win probability CP 87%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 158.4
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CP has more of the edges

NAU 1, CP 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
CPBig
CP offense vs NAU defense
Offense 91st of 366 against a defense 292nd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: NAU plays 65.5 a game (330th fastest), CP 76.4 (1st). Faster games mean more points
CPBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NAU 23.3%, CP 30.0%. Defensive: NAU 66.6%, CP 70.4%
NAUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: NAU 16.0%, CP 19.8%. Forced: NAU 16.6%, CP 16.3%
CPBig
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NAU 40%, CP 100%. Transfers in: NAU 3, CP 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Schedule so far
NAU has played the 275th-hardest schedule, CP the 170th. A record against a soft schedule means less
CPSmall
Home court
CP at home. This season: CP 0-0 at home, NAU 0-0 away
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: NAU 51.7 and allows 56.9; CP 51.5 and allows 53.8
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: NAU 31.8, CP 34.9. Allowed: NAU 32.7, CP 34.1
Even
NAU offense vs CP defense
Offense 329th of 366 against a defense 343rd, on the model’s ratings
Even
Three-pointers
NAU hits 35.6% and allows 38.7%; CP hits 33.0% and allows 34.7%. Threes are 36.6% and 52.6% of their shots
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—CP -13.1—
Total—158.4—
Projected score—NAU 72.7 · CP 85.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadCP -7.6—
1H total74.0—
1H projected scoreNAU 33.2 · CP 40.8—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Cal Poly has the better starters

Position by position: N Arizona 0, Cal Poly 2, even 3
N ArizonaBetterCal Poly
G R. Abelman10.9 pts · 4.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 42
CPBig
G H. Mousa20.3 pts · 6.2 reb · 1.9 ast Score 96
G C. Komin8 pts · 2.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 50
Even
G C. Ward14.3 pts · 6.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 58
G B. Peterson4.4 pts · 0.7 reb · 2.1 ast Score 7
Even
G G. Vasilic7.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 21
G M. Majerle TR0.7 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked
No call
G J. Davis5.5 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.7 ast Score 15
F D. Anderson TR1.5 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.4 ast Score 6
CPSmall
G K. Elliott5.1 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 33
N ArizonaBetterCal Poly
NAU offense329th of 366 · -10.7
Even
CP defense343rd of 366 · -9.2
NAU defense292nd of 366 · -7.4
CPBig
CP offense91st of 366 · -0.2
Backcourt-5.2 · 4 players
CPBig
Backcourt-1.4 · 5 players
Frontcourt-0.8 · 1 player
No call
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
Bench+0.1 · 2 players
NAUBig
Bench-4.1 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestNAU betterCP betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
N Arizona
Guards
R. Abelman33 minC. Komin27 minB. Peterson20 minM. Majerle5 min · TRC. Bennett3 min · TRJ. Amundsen1 min
Forwards
D. Anderson7 min · TRL. WieskampNewT. GreenNewL. ToukamNewZ. TannerNew
Centers
N. KeutchaNew
Cal Poly
Guards
H. Mousa32 minC. Ward30 minG. Vasilic23 minJ. Davis21 minK. Elliott18 minJ. Esso Essis17 min
Forwards
A. Goode16 minT. Plumtree13 minA. Assran13 minA. Price6 minB. FreemanNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
NAUCP
Scoring
68.1 #311Points per game81.3 #42
1.04 #271Points per possession1.06 #222
65.5 #330Pace (possessions)76.4 #1
Shooting
51.7 #161Effective FG%51.5 #170
35.6 #793-point %33.0 #228
36.6 #2363-point attempt rate52.6 #5
31.8 #260Free throw rate34.9 #182
Possessions
16.0 #140Turnover rate19.8 #345
23.3 #348Offensive rebound rate30.0 #202
12.5 #251Assists per game13.3 #194
Defense
77.6 #257Points allowed85.3 #360
1.18 #351Points allowed per possession1.12 #274
56.9 #355Opponent effective FG%53.8 #292
38.7 #362Opponent 3-point %34.7 #231
16.6 #181Turnovers forced16.3 #203
66.6 #305Defensive rebound rate70.4 #141
6.3 #194Steals per game6.4 #188
2.7 #287Blocks per game2.2 #337
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

N Arizona

7-22 in 2025-26 overall · 4-15 in conference · Big Sky Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Idaho St65–73
  • Lvs Montana St65–76
  • L@ E Washington57–88
  • L@ Idaho58–78
  • L@ N Colorado77–78

A week or more of rest.

Cal Poly

12-19 in 2025-26 overall · 10-11 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UC San Diego69–72
  • Wvs Bakersfield108–76
  • L@ UC Irvine85–107
  • L@ UC San Diego64–80
  • Wvs Long Beach St102–92

A week or more of rest.