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NCAAB · Wed, Dec 2

Fresno St @ Santa Clara

Leavey Center · at Santa Clara
#174FRESFresno St
@
#106SCUSanta Clara
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
FRESThis seasonSCU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SCU 81–71 · win probability SCU 81%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 152.4
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SCU has more of the edges

FRES 1, SCU 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
FRESBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: FRES 33.8, SCU 25.5. Allowed: FRES 28.6, SCU 38.2
SCUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: FRES 18.1%, SCU 15.3%. Forced: FRES 18.2%, SCU 20.1%
SCUSmall
SCU offense vs FRES defense
Offense 93rd of 366 against a defense 190th, on the model’s ratings
SCUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: FRES 27.9%, SCU 36.4%. Defensive: FRES 69.4%, SCU 67.9%
SCUSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: FRES 0%, SCU 42%. Transfers in: FRES 5, SCU 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
SCUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: FRES 50.6 and allows 51.5; SCU 54.5 and allows 52.0
SCUSmall
Home court
SCU at home. This season: SCU 0-0 at home, FRES 0-0 away
Even
FRES offense vs SCU defense
Offense 176th of 366 against a defense 138th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Three-pointers
FRES hits 32.1% and allows 30.7%; SCU hits 34.9% and allows 33.1%. Threes are 40.9% and 45.0% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
FRES has played the 103rd-hardest schedule, SCU the 86th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: FRES plays 69.3 a game (156th fastest), SCU 69.7 (135th). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—SCU -10.2—
Total—152.4—
Projected score—FRES 71.1 · SCU 81.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadSCU -5.9—
1H total71.3—
1H projected scoreFRES 32.7 · SCU 38.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Fresno St 1, Santa Clara 1, even 3
Fresno StBetterSanta Clara
G D. Lungu TR13.2 pts · 5.4 reb · 3 ast Not ranked
No call
G J. Ensminger6.4 pts · 5.5 reb · 2.8 ast Score 53
G R. Candelino TR11.2 pts · 5 reb · 1.2 ast Score 76
FRESBig
G D. Castillo TR10.3 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 41
G B. Amuneke TR2.1 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.3 ast Score 28
SCUSmall
G S. Gavalyugov9 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 61
F B. Henige TR4.9 pts · 5.5 reb · 0.5 ast Score 38
Even
G T. Darlan5.9 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 35
C B. Fall TR0.6 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
No call
G F. Zugic TR5.2 pts · 2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 56
Fresno StBetterSanta Clara
FRES offense176th of 366 · -5.4
Even
SCU defense138th of 366 · -2.8
FRES defense190th of 366 · -4.4
SCUSmall
SCU offense93rd of 366 · -0.4
Backcourt+1.3 · 3 players
FRESBig
Backcourt-2.9 · 5 players
Frontcourt-0.8 · 2 players
No call
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench-0.2 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestFRES betterSCU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Fresno St
Guards
D. Lungu27 min · TRR. Candelino25 min · TRB. Amuneke8 min · TRN. ZulemieNewK. PerryNewQ. RhymesNew
Forwards
B. Henige20 min · TRR. ParsleyNewY. Kesse-BedaNewA. GrangerNewM. VuckovicNewC. SchroederNew
Centers
B. Fall5 min · TR
Santa Clara
Guards
J. Ensminger29 minD. Castillo28 min · TRS. Gavalyugov20 minT. Darlan18 minF. Zugic16 min · TRK. Cochran12 min
Forwards
C. TadjoNewN. BadibangaNew
Centers
F. Chukwudebelu6 minS. Gueye4 min · TRA. EnsorNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
FRESSCU
Scoring
72.3 #233Points per game82.9 #30
1.04 #266Points per possession1.18 #37
69.3 #156Pace (possessions)69.7 #135
Shooting
50.6 #206Effective FG%54.5 #53
32.1 #2743-point %34.9 #125
40.9 #1463-point attempt rate45.0 #67
33.8 #218Free throw rate25.5 #363
Possessions
18.1 #277Turnover rate15.3 #86
27.9 #272Offensive rebound rate36.4 #20
12.6 #247Assists per game16.6 #33
Defense
73.5 #142Points allowed73.5 #141
1.06 #110Points allowed per possession1.06 #117
51.5 #184Opponent effective FG%52.0 #213
30.7 #30Opponent 3-point %33.1 #127
18.2 #88Turnovers forced20.1 #20
69.4 #183Defensive rebound rate67.9 #262
6.7 #154Steals per game8.7 #14
2.2 #331Blocks per game3.6 #125
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Fresno St

12-19 in 2025-26 overall · 7-14 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Colorado St63–67
  • L@ Grand Canyon60–85
  • Wvs San José St82–68
  • Lvs Boise St53–69
  • L@ Colorado St70–74

A week or more of rest.

Santa Clara

25-9 in 2025-26 overall · 17-4 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Kentucky84–89
  • Lvs Gonzaga68–79
  • Wvs Saint Mary's76–71
  • Wvs Pacific76–68
  • Wvs Oregon St93–72

A week or more of rest.