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NCAAB · Fri, Dec 4

Grambling vs Tennessee St

CareFirst Arena · Neutral site
#338GRAMGrambling
vs
#245TNSTTennessee St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
GRAMThis seasonTNST
0-1Record0-0
1-0ATS0-0
1-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TNST 79–72 · win probability TNST 74%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 150.5
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TNST has more of the edges

GRAM 1, TNST 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
TNSTBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: GRAM 30.3%, TNST 34.8%. Defensive: GRAM 67.5%, TNST 69.4%
GRAMSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: GRAM 41.1, TNST 33.4. Allowed: GRAM 40.0, TNST 41.4
TNSTSmall
TNST offense vs GRAM defense
Offense 207th of 366 against a defense 302nd, on the model’s ratings
TNSTSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: GRAM 21.2%, TNST 16.7%. Forced: GRAM 20.8%, TNST 19.8%
TNSTSmall
GRAM offense vs TNST defense
Offense 347th of 366 against a defense 290th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: GRAM plays 69.4 a game (155th fastest), TNST 71.1 (66th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: GRAM 23%, TNST 10%. Transfers in: GRAM 4, TNST 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: GRAM 48.8 and allows 50.0; TNST 50.0 and allows 51.6
Even
Three-pointers
GRAM hits 32.3% and allows 32.7%; TNST hits 33.3% and allows 34.0%. Threes are 38.1% and 30.7% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
GRAM has played the 355th-hardest schedule, TNST the 345th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelTNST -7.3
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model150.5
Model edge—
Projected score
GRAM 71.6 · TNST 78.9
Win probability
TNST 74%
1st half
Spread
TNST -4.2
Total
70.4
Projected score
GRAM 33.1 · TNST 37.3
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Tennessee St has the better starters

Position by position: Grambling 0, Tennessee St 4, even 1
GramblingBetterTennessee St
G I. Howard13 pts · 1 reb · 4 ast Score 19
TNSTBig
G T. Johnson TR15 pts · 2.8 reb · 4.2 ast Score 85
G D. Pierce TR19 pts · 0 reb · 8 ast Score 31
Even
G A. Morris TR11.1 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.7 ast Score 30
G B. Hardy TR3.2 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.7 ast Score 2
TNSTBig
G C. Alston TR4.5 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.3 ast Score 42
F H. Washington TR4.4 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 2
TNSTBig
F A. Bradshaw TR8.6 pts · 4.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 79
F M. Fitts2.8 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.3 ast Score 17
TNSTSmall
F J. Rivera TR3.3 pts · 2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 47
GramblingBetterTennessee St
GRAM offense347th of 366 · -12.0
TNSTSmall
TNST defense290th of 366 · -7.3
GRAM defense302nd of 366 · -7.7
TNSTSmall
TNST offense207th of 366 · -6.3
Backcourt-6.3 · 3 players
TNSTBig
Backcourt-0.4 · 3 players
Frontcourt-3.5 · 2 players
TNSTBig
Frontcourt+1.0 · 2 players
Bench-0.6 · 2 players
GRAMSmall
Bench-2.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestGRAM betterTNST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Grambling
Guards
I. Howard31 minD. Pierce31 min · TRB. Hardy19 min · TRC. Perkins5 minK. LaytonNewT. BeyNew
Forwards
H. Washington17 min · TRM. Fitts10 minI. Miranda8 min · TRI. ErimsNew
Tennessee St
Guards
T. Johnson29 min · TRA. Morris28 min · TRC. Alston11 min · TRD. Howard8 minI. Stewart4 min · TRJ. Jones3 min
Forwards
A. Bradshaw19 min · TRJ. Rivera12 min · TRK. Jones11 minD. LindseyNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
GRAMTNST
Scoring
69.0 #299Points per game77.9 #96
1.00 #331Points per possession1.10 #146
69.4 #155Pace (possessions)71.1 #66
Shooting
48.8 #295Effective FG%50.0 #237
32.3 #2653-point %33.3 #211
38.1 #2103-point attempt rate30.7 #344
41.1 #45Free throw rate33.4 #228
Possessions
21.2 #357Turnover rate16.7 #177
30.3 #188Offensive rebound rate34.8 #53
11.9 #292Assists per game12.7 #237
Defense
71.3 #83Points allowed75.1 #191
1.03 #51Points allowed per possession1.06 #97
50.0 #97Opponent effective FG%51.6 #190
32.7 #99Opponent 3-point %34.0 #183
20.8 #12Turnovers forced19.8 #26
67.5 #280Defensive rebound rate69.4 #184
7.7 #68Steals per game9.0 #10
2.7 #283Blocks per game3.8 #99
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Grambling

12-19 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Jackson St65–68
  • Wvs Miss Valley St77–52
  • W@ Alabama St65–63
  • L@ Alabama A&M63–77
  • Lvs Florida A&M59–66

A week or more of rest.

Tennessee St

20-10 in 2025-26 overall · 17-5 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Iowa State74–108
  • Wvs Morehead St93–67
  • Wvs UT Martin68–55
  • W@ UT Martin67–42
  • W@ SE Missouri79–71

A week or more of rest.