State Farm Center · at Illinois · Conference game
Closing line
ILL -9.5✓ WIS covered by 11.5
ILL -9.5✓ WIS covered by 11.5Closing total153.5Over by 28.5
 WIS | This season | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| 16-7 | Record | 20-4 |
| 13-10 | ATS | 15-9 |
| 13-10 | O/U | 9-15 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: WIS 75–85 ILL · ✗ ILL (82%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WIS | 38 | 43 | 11 | 92 |
| ILL | 44 | 37 | 9 | 90 |
1st half: WIS 38, ILL 44 (ILL by 6). The model had ILL by 6.1 and a total of 74.8 (actual 82).
Team stats
| WIS | ILL | |
|---|---|---|
| 33-76 43% | Field goals | 32-60 53% |
| 16-36 44% | 3-pointers | 15-33 45% |
| 10-14 71% | Free throws | 11-19 58% |
| 35 14 off | Rebounds | 38 8 off |
| 17 | Assists | 15 |
| 8 | Steals | 0 |
| 3 | Blocks | 6 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 13 |
| 17 | Fouls | 12 |
| 34 | Points in paint | 32 |
| 9 | Fast-break points | 5 |
Players
| WIS | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Blackwell G | 43 | 24 | 3 | 4 | 9-22 | 5-11 |
| Nick Boyd G | 39 | 25 | 2 | 5 | 10-19 | 3-5 |
| Nolan Winter F | 36 | 4 | 11 | 1 | 2-8 | 0-3 |
| Andrew Rohde G | 23 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2-6 | 0-2 |
| Aleksas Bieliauskas F | 20 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 2-4 | 2-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Austin Rapp F | 31 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 6-11 | 4-7 |
| Braeden Carrington G | 22 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 2-5 | 2-3 |
| Jack Janicki G | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Will Garlock F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Hayden Jones, Riccardo Greppi, Isaac Gard, Elijah Gray, Jack Robison, Zach Kinziger
| ILL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keaton Wagler G | 44 | 34 | 1 | 7 | 12-23 | 5-10 |
| Ben Humrichous F | 43 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 4-6 | 2-4 |
| Tomislav Ivisic C | 37 | 19 | 11 | 3 | 8-13 | 3-6 |
| Jake Davis F | 37 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 3-6 | 2-5 |
| David Mirkovic F | 33 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 3-7 | 3-6 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Zvonimir Ivisic F | 30 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 2-5 | 0-2 |
| Brandon Lee G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Kylan Boswell, AJ Redd, Mihailo Petrovic, Blake Fagbemi, Ty Rodgers, Andrej Stojakovic, Jason Jakstys
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketILL -9.5
ModelILL -10.4
Model edgeILL +0.9
L WIS covered
Total
Market153.5
Model160.1
Model edgeOver 6.6
W Over
Projected score
WIS 74.8 · ILL 85.3
WIS 92 · ILL 90
Win probability
ILL 82%
1st half
Spread
ILL -6.1
ILL -6.0
Total
74.8
82 points
Projected score
WIS 34.4 · ILL 40.5
WIS 38 · ILL 44
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenILL -11.5
2 → WIS
CloseILL -9.5
2 pts toward WIS
Total
Open156.5
▼ 3
Close153.5
Down 3 since the open
Moneyline
WIS +440 · ILL -600
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ILL -11.5 · closed ILL -9.5 · moved 2 toward WISmodel ILL -10.5
model ILL -10.5
Opened 156.5 · closed 153.5 · moved 3 downmodel 160
model 160
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIS | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% |
| ILL | 9-1 90% | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22
WIS 1–6 ILLILL leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · WIS 2-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2024-25 | ILL 74 @ WIS 95 | WIS -3.5 | WIS W |
| Dec 10, 2024-25 | WIS 80 @ ILL 86 | ILL -6.5 | WIS W |
| Mar 17, 2023-24 | WIS 87 vs ILL 93 | ILL -3.5 | ILL W |
| Mar 2, 2023-24 | ILL 91 @ WIS 83 | WIS -3.5 | ILL W |
| Jan 28, 2022-23 | ILL 61 @ WIS 51 | WIS +2.5 | ILL W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Wisconsin
23 games played
Straight up
16-7
70% wins
Against the spread
13-10
57% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-10
57% overs · avg +2.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs CAM | W 96-64 | -20.5 | W +11.5 | 151.5 | O 160 |
| Nov 7 | vs NIU | W 97-72 | -28.5 | L −3.5 | 157.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 11 | vs BALL | W 86-55 | -26.5 | W +4.5 | 156.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 17 | vs SIUE | W 94-69 | -25.5 | L −0.5 | 146.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 21 | @ BYU | L 70-98 | +4.5 | L −23.5 | 165.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 27 | vs PROV | W 104-83 | -6.5 | W +14.5 | 166.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 28 | vs TCU | L 63-74 | -5.5 | L −16.5 | 157.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 3 | vs NU | W 85-73 | -10.5 | W +1.5 | 155.5 | O 158 |
| Dec 6 | vs MARQ | W 96-76 | -11.5 | W +8.5 | 160.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 10 | @ NEB | L 60-90 | +1.5 | L −28.5 | 158.5 | U 150 |
| Dec 19 | vs VILL | L 66-76 | -3.5 | L −13.5 | 152.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 22 | vs CMU | W 88-61 | -26.5 | W +0.5 | 152.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 30 | vs MILW | W 80-60 | -19.5 | W +0.5 | 157.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 3 | vs PUR | L 73-89 | +5.5 | L −10.5 | 153.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 6 | vs UCLA | W 80-72 | -3.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 10 | @ MICH | W 91-88 | +19.5 | W +22.5 | 169.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 13 | @ MINN | W 78-75 | -1.5 | W +1.5 | 146.5 | O 153 |
| Jan 17 | vs RUTG | W 96-87 | -15.5 | L −6.5 | 149.5 | O 183 |
| Jan 22 | @ PSU | W 98-71 | -5.5 | W +21.5 | 157.5 | O 169 |
| Jan 25 | vs USC | L 71-73 | -7.5 | L −9.5 | 158.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 28 | vsMINN | W 67-63 | -9.5 | L −5.5 | 146.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 31 | vs OSU | W 92-82 | -4.5 | W +5.5 | 155.5 | O 174 |
| Feb 7 | @ IU | L 77-78 | +3.5 | W +2.5 | 157.5 | U 155 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCAM
CAMW 96-64
+11.5
7
vsNIU
NIUW 97-72
−3.5
11
vsBALL
BALLW 86-55
+4.5
17
vsSIUE
SIUEW 94-69
−0.5
21
@BYU
BYUL 70-98
−23.5
27
vsPROV
PROVW 104-83
+14.5
28
vsTCU
TCUL 63-74
−16.5
3
vsNU
NUW 85-73
+1.5
6
vsMARQ
MARQW 96-76
+8.5
10
@NEB
NEBL 60-90
−28.5
19
vsVILL
VILLL 66-76
−13.5
22
vsCMU
CMUW 88-61
+0.5
30
vsMILW
MILWW 80-60
+0.5
3
vsPUR
PURL 73-89
−10.5
6
vsUCLA
UCLAW 80-72
+4.5
10
@MICH
MICHW 91-88
+22.5
13
@MINN
MINNW 78-75
+1.5
17
vsRUTG
RUTGW 96-87
−6.5
22
@PSU
PSUW 98-71
+21.5
25
vsUSC
USCL 71-73
−9.5
28
vsMINN
MINNW 67-63
−5.5
31
vsOSU
OSUW 92-82
+5.5
7
@IU
IUL 77-78
+2.5
covered 13didn’t cover 10avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCAM
CAMW 96-64
+8.5
7
vsNIU
NIUW 97-72
+11.5
11
vsBALL
BALLW 86-55
−15.5
17
vsSIUE
SIUEW 94-69
+16.5
21
@BYU
BYUL 70-98
+2.5
27
vsPROV
PROVW 104-83
+20.5
28
vsTCU
TCUL 63-74
−20.5
3
vsNU
NUW 85-73
+2.5
6
vsMARQ
MARQW 96-76
+11.5
10
@NEB
NEBL 60-90
−8.5
19
vsVILL
VILLL 66-76
−10.5
22
vsCMU
CMUW 88-61
−3.5
30
vsMILW
MILWW 80-60
−17.5
3
vsPUR
PURL 73-89
+8.5
6
vsUCLA
UCLAW 80-72
−0.5
10
@MICH
MICHW 91-88
+9.5
13
@MINN
MINNW 78-75
+6.5
17
vsRUTG
RUTGW 96-87
+33.5
22
@PSU
PSUW 98-71
+11.5
25
vsUSC
USCL 71-73
−14.5
28
vsMINN
MINNW 67-63
−16.5
31
vsOSU
OSUW 92-82
+18.5
7
@IU
IUL 77-78
−2.5
over 13under 10avg +2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Illinois
24 games played
Straight up
20-4
83% wins
Against the spread
15-9
63% covers · avg +3.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-15
38% overs · avg −3.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs JKST | W 113-55 | -28.5 | W +29.5 | 157.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 7 | vs FGCU | W 113-70 | -29.5 | W +13.5 | 160.5 | O 183 |
| Nov 11 | vs TTU | W 81-77 | -3.5 | W +0.5 | 168.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 14 | vs COLG | W 84-65 | -30.5 | L −11.5 | 164.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 19 | vs ALA | L 86-90 | -2.5 | L −6.5 | 180.5 | U 176 |
| Nov 22 | vs LIU | W 98-58 | -34.5 | W +5.5 | 160.5 | U 156 |
| Nov 24 | vs RGV | W 87-73 | -33.5 | L −19.5 | 164.5 | U 160 |
| Nov 28 | vs CONN | L 61-74 | +4.5 | L −8.5 | 150.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 6 | vs TENN | W 75-62 | +1.5 | W +14.5 | 149.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 9 | @OSU | W 88-80 | -3.5 | W +4.5 | 162.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 13 | vsNEB | L 80-83 | -9.5 | L −12.5 | 156.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 22 | vs MIZ | W 91-48 | -8.5 | W +34.5 | 153.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 29 | vs SOU | W 90-55 | -33.5 | W +1.5 | 163.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 3 | @PSU | W 73-65 | -14.5 | L −6.5 | 156.5 | U 138 |
| Jan 8 | vsRUTG | W 81-55 | -22.5 | W +3.5 | 149.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 11 | @ IOWA | W 75-69 | -1.5 | W +4.5 | 142.5 | O 144 |
| Jan 14 | @NU | W 79-68 | -9.5 | W +1.5 | 151.5 | U 147 |
| Jan 17 | vsMINN | W 77-67 | -15.5 | L −5.5 | 142.5 | O 144 |
| Jan 21 | vs MD | W 89-70 | -18.5 | W +0.5 | 152.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 24 | @PUR | W 88-82 | +5.5 | W +11.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
| Jan 29 | vs WASH | W 75-66 | -12.5 | L −3.5 | 153.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 1 | @NEB | W 78-69 | +1.5 | W +10.5 | 154.5 | U 147 |
| Feb 4 | vsNU | W 84-44 | -16.5 | W +23.5 | 149.5 | U 128 |
| Feb 7 | @ MSU | L 82-85 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 142.5 | O 167 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsJKST
JKSTW 113-55
+29.5
7
vsFGCU
FGCUW 113-70
+13.5
11
vsTTU
TTUW 81-77
+0.5
14
vsCOLG
COLGW 84-65
−11.5
19
vsALA
ALAL 86-90
−6.5
22
vsLIU
LIUW 98-58
+5.5
24
vsRGV
RGVW 87-73
−19.5
28
vsCONN
CONNL 61-74
−8.5
6
vsTENN
TENNW 75-62
+14.5
9
@OSU
OSUW 88-80
+4.5
13
vsNEB
NEBL 80-83
−12.5
22
vsMIZ
MIZW 91-48
+34.5
29
vsSOU
SOUW 90-55
+1.5
3
@PSU
PSUW 73-65
−6.5
8
vsRUTG
RUTGW 81-55
+3.5
11
@IOWA
IOWAW 75-69
+4.5
14
@NU
NUW 79-68
+1.5
17
vsMINN
MINNW 77-67
−5.5
21
vsMD
MDW 89-70
+0.5
24
@PUR
PURW 88-82
+11.5
29
vsWASH
WASHW 75-66
−3.5
1
@NEB
NEBW 78-69
+10.5
4
vsNU
NUW 84-44
+23.5
7
@MSU
MSUL 82-85
−1.5
covered 15didn’t cover 9avg +3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsJKST
JKSTW 113-55
+10.5
7
vsFGCU
FGCUW 113-70
+22.5
11
vsTTU
TTUW 81-77
−10.5
14
vsCOLG
COLGW 84-65
−15.5
19
vsALA
ALAL 86-90
−4.5
22
vsLIU
LIUW 98-58
−4.5
24
vsRGV
RGVW 87-73
−4.5
28
vsCONN
CONNL 61-74
−15.5
6
vsTENN
TENNW 75-62
−12.5
9
@OSU
OSUW 88-80
+5.5
13
vsNEB
NEBL 80-83
+6.5
22
vsMIZ
MIZW 91-48
−14.5
29
vsSOU
SOUW 90-55
−18.5
3
@PSU
PSUW 73-65
−18.5
8
vsRUTG
RUTGW 81-55
−13.5
11
@IOWA
IOWAW 75-69
+1.5
14
@NU
NUW 79-68
−4.5
17
vsMINN
MINNW 77-67
+1.5
21
vsMD
MDW 89-70
+6.5
24
@PUR
PURW 88-82
+17.5
29
vsWASH
WASHW 75-66
−12.5
1
@NEB
NEBW 78-69
−7.5
4
vsNU
NUW 84-44
−21.5
7
@MSU
MSUL 82-85
+24.5
over 9under 15avg −3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Wisconsin
16-7 overall · 8-4 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Indiana77–78
- Wvs Ohio State92–82
- Wvs Minnesota67–63
- Lvs USC71–73
- W@ Penn State98–71
3 days since their last game.
Illinois
20-4 overall · 11-2 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Michigan St82–85
- Wvs Northwestern84–44
- W@ Nebraska78–69
- Wvs Washington75–66
- W@ Purdue88–82
3 days since their last game.