Welsh-Ryan Arena · at Northwestern · Conference game
Closing line
NU -7.5✓ NU covered by 13.5
NU -7.5✓ NU covered by 13.5Closing total148.5Over by 18.5
 PSU | This season | NU |
|---|---|---|
| 9-11 | Record | 9-11 |
| 8-12 | ATS | 9-11 |
| 11-9 | O/U | 10-10 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: PSU 72–80 NU · ✓ NU (75%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSU | 40 | 33 | 73 |
| NU | 45 | 49 | 94 |
1st half: PSU 40, NU 45 (NU by 5). The model had NU by 4.4 and a total of 71.2 (actual 85).
Team stats
| PSU | NU | |
|---|---|---|
| 25-51 49% | Field goals | 38-63 60% |
| 6-18 33% | 3-pointers | 12-22 55% |
| 17-20 85% | Free throws | 6-9 67% |
| 21 3 off | Rebounds | 34 9 off |
| 19 | Assists | 30 |
| 5 | Steals | 5 |
| 1 | Blocks | 3 |
| 11 | Turnovers | 9 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 38 | Points in paint | 42 |
| 6 | Fast-break points | 16 |
Players
| PSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Reed F | 31 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 4-10 | 0-4 |
| Ivan Juric F | 28 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 5-7 | 1-1 |
| Kayden Mingo G | 28 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 4-9 | 0-1 |
| Dominick Stewart G | 26 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Eli Rice G | 20 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 3-7 | 3-5 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Freddie Dilione V G | 26 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 4-9 | 0-2 |
| Melih Tunca G | 23 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Mason Blackwood F | 15 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Justin Houser C | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Chris Lotito, Reggie Grodin, Tibor Mirtic, Sasa Ciani
| NU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Martinelli F | 37 | 34 | 4 | 2 | 13-19 | 4-7 |
| Tre Singleton F | 36 | 17 | 18 | 4 | 7-10 | 1-2 |
| Jake West G | 27 | 7 | 0 | 13 | 3-7 | 1-4 |
| Tyler Kropp F | 20 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2-4 | 1-1 |
| Max Green G | 17 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Angelo Ciaravino G | 26 | 20 | 4 | 2 | 9-12 | 2-2 |
| Jordan Clayton G | 20 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Jayden Reid G | 13 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Arrinten Page F | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Phoenix Gill G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Cade Bennerman, Justin Mullins, Gus Hurlburt, Blake Smith, K.J. Windham
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenNU -8.5
1 → PSU
CloseNU -7.5
1 pt toward PSU
Total
Open151.5
▼ 3
Close148.5
Down 3 since the open
Moneyline
PSU +280 · NU -355
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened NU -8.5 · closed NU -7.5 · moved 1 toward PSUmodel NU -7.5 matches the line
model NU -7.5 = line ✓
Opened 151.5 · closed 148.5 · moved 3 downmodel 152
model 152
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | NU -7.5 | NU -7.6 | NU +0.1 | W NU covered |
| Total | 148.5 | 152.0 | Over 3.5 | W Over |
| Projected score | — | PSU 72.2 · NU 79.8 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | NU -4.4 | NU -5.0 |
| 1H total | 71.2 | 85 |
| 1H projected score | PSU 33.4 · NU 37.8 | PSU 40 · NU 45 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSU | 1-9 10% | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% |
| NU | 3-7 30% | 6-4 60% | 3-7 30% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22
PSU 5–2 NUPSU leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · PSU 5-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2024-25 | NU 80 @ PSU 84 | PSU -4.5 | NU W |
| Feb 11, 2023-24 | PSU 63 @ NU 68 | NU -7.5 | PSU W |
| Jan 10, 2023-24 | NU 76 @ PSU 72 | PSU +1.5 | NU W |
| Mar 10, 2022-23 | PSU 67 vs NU 65 | NU -1.5 | PSU W |
| Mar 1, 2022-23 | PSU 68 @ NU 65 | NU -4.5 | PSU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Penn State
20 games played
Straight up
9-11
45% wins
Against the spread
8-12
40% covers · avg −2.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
11-9
55% overs · avg +2.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs FAIR | W 76-68 | -15.5 | L −7.5 | 151.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 8 | @ NHVN | W 87-43 | -18.5 | W +25.5 | 143.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 11 | vs NAVY | W 80-71 | -11.5 | L −2.5 | 155.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 15 | vs LAS | W 83-69 | -8.5 | W +5.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 19 | vs HARV | W 84-80 | -12.5 | L −8.5 | 142.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 22 | vs PROV | L 65-77 | +3.5 | L −8.5 | 165.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 25 | vs BU | W 96-87 | -14.5 | L −5.5 | 142.5 | O 183 |
| Nov 29 | vs SHU | W 90-59 | -14.5 | W +16.5 | 160.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 2 | vs CAM | W 87-76 | -14.5 | L −3.5 | 154.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 9 | @ IU | L 72-113 | +14.5 | L −26.5 | 152.5 | O 185 |
| Dec 13 | vs MSU | L 72-76 | +12.5 | W +8.5 | 145.5 | O 148 |
| Dec 21 | vs PITT | L 46-80 | -1.5 | L −35.5 | 146.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 29 | vs NCCU | W 90-67 | -23.5 | L −0.5 | 150.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 3 | vs ILL | L 65-73 | +14.5 | W +6.5 | 156.5 | U 138 |
| Jan 6 | vs MICH | L 72-74 | +24.5 | W +22.5 | 169.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 10 | @ PUR | L 85-93 | +22.5 | W +14.5 | 152.5 | O 178 |
| Jan 14 | vs UCLA | L 60-71 | +4.5 | L −6.5 | 148.5 | U 131 |
| Jan 18 | @ MD | L 73-96 | +1.5 | L −21.5 | 148.5 | O 169 |
| Jan 22 | vs WIS | L 71-98 | +5.5 | L −21.5 | 157.5 | O 169 |
| Jan 26 | @ OSU | L 78-84 | +11.5 | W +5.5 | 153.5 | O 162 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsFAIR
FAIRW 76-68
−7.5
8
@NHVN
NHVNW 87-43
+25.5
11
vsNAVY
NAVYW 80-71
−2.5
15
vsLAS
LASW 83-69
+5.5
19
vsHARV
HARVW 84-80
−8.5
22
vsPROV
PROVL 65-77
−8.5
25
vsBU
BUW 96-87
−5.5
29
vsSHU
SHUW 90-59
+16.5
2
vsCAM
CAMW 87-76
−3.5
9
@IU
IUL 72-113
−26.5
13
vsMSU
MSUL 72-76
+8.5
21
vsPITT
PITTL 46-80
−35.5
29
vsNCCU
NCCUW 90-67
−0.5
3
vsILL
ILLL 65-73
+6.5
6
vsMICH
MICHL 72-74
+22.5
10
@PUR
PURL 85-93
+14.5
14
vsUCLA
UCLAL 60-71
−6.5
18
@MD
MDL 73-96
−21.5
22
vsWIS
WISL 71-98
−21.5
26
@OSU
OSUL 78-84
+5.5
covered 8didn’t cover 12avg −2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsFAIR
FAIRW 76-68
−7.5
8
@NHVN
NHVNW 87-43
−13.5
11
vsNAVY
NAVYW 80-71
−4.5
15
vsLAS
LASW 83-69
+6.5
19
vsHARV
HARVW 84-80
+21.5
22
vsPROV
PROVL 65-77
−23.5
25
vsBU
BUW 96-87
+40.5
29
vsSHU
SHUW 90-59
−11.5
2
vsCAM
CAMW 87-76
+8.5
9
@IU
IUL 72-113
+32.5
13
vsMSU
MSUL 72-76
+2.5
21
vsPITT
PITTL 46-80
−20.5
29
vsNCCU
NCCUW 90-67
+6.5
3
vsILL
ILLL 65-73
−18.5
6
vsMICH
MICHL 72-74
−23.5
10
@PUR
PURL 85-93
+25.5
14
vsUCLA
UCLAL 60-71
−17.5
18
@MD
MDL 73-96
+20.5
22
vsWIS
WISL 71-98
+11.5
26
@OSU
OSUL 78-84
+8.5
over 11under 9avg +2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Northwestern
20 games played
Straight up
9-11
45% wins
Against the spread
9-11
45% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-10
50% overs · avg +0.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs MERC | W 70-47 | -26.5 | L −3.5 | 140.5 | U 117 |
| Nov 7 | vsBU | W 76-52 | -17.5 | W +6.5 | 136.5 | U 128 |
| Nov 10 | vs CLE | W 110-63 | -23.5 | W +23.5 | 151.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 14 | @ DEP | W 81-79 | -5.5 | L −3.5 | 145.5 | O 160 |
| Nov 21 | vs UVA | L 78-83 | +4.5 | L −0.5 | 149.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 23 | vs SC | W 79-77 | -4.5 | L −2.5 | 146.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 27 | vs OKST | L 81-86 | -2.5 | L −7.5 | 159.5 | O 167 |
| Dec 3 | @WIS | L 73-85 | +10.5 | L −1.5 | 155.5 | O 158 |
| Dec 6 | vsOSU | L 82-86 | +1.5 | L −2.5 | 155.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 13 | vs JKST | W 93-53 | -30.5 | W +9.5 | 146.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 16 | vs VAL | W 86-70 | -14.5 | W +1.5 | 145.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 20 | vs BTLR | L 58-61 | +3.5 | W +0.5 | 154.5 | U 119 |
| Dec 30 | vs HOW | W 80-60 | -19.5 | W +0.5 | 148.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 3 | vs MINN | L 78-84 | -4.5 | L −10.5 | 138.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 8 | @MSU | L 66-76 | +13.5 | W +3.5 | 143.5 | U 142 |
| Jan 11 | @ RUTG | L 75-77 | -4.5 | L −6.5 | 144.5 | O 152 |
| Jan 14 | vsILL | L 68-79 | +9.5 | L −1.5 | 151.5 | U 147 |
| Jan 17 | vs NEB | L 58-77 | +4.5 | L −14.5 | 149.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 21 | @ USC | W 74-68 | +6.5 | W +12.5 | 149.5 | U 142 |
| Jan 24 | @UCLA | L 64-71 | +7.5 | W +0.5 | 143.5 | U 135 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsMERC
MERCW 70-47
−3.5
7
vsBU
BUW 76-52
+6.5
10
vsCLE
CLEW 110-63
+23.5
14
@DEP
DEPW 81-79
−3.5
21
vsUVA
UVAL 78-83
−0.5
23
vsSC
SCW 79-77
−2.5
27
vsOKST
OKSTL 81-86
−7.5
3
@WIS
WISL 73-85
−1.5
6
vsOSU
OSUL 82-86
−2.5
13
vsJKST
JKSTW 93-53
+9.5
16
vsVAL
VALW 86-70
+1.5
20
vsBTLR
BTLRL 58-61
+0.5
30
vsHOW
HOWW 80-60
+0.5
3
vsMINN
MINNL 78-84
−10.5
8
@MSU
MSUL 66-76
+3.5
11
@RUTG
RUTGL 75-77
−6.5
14
vsILL
ILLL 68-79
−1.5
17
vsNEB
NEBL 58-77
−14.5
21
@USC
USCW 74-68
+12.5
24
@UCLA
UCLAL 64-71
+0.5
covered 9didn’t cover 11avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsMERC
MERCW 70-47
−23.5
7
vsBU
BUW 76-52
−8.5
10
vsCLE
CLEW 110-63
+21.5
14
@DEP
DEPW 81-79
+14.5
21
vsUVA
UVAL 78-83
+11.5
23
vsSC
SCW 79-77
+9.5
27
vsOKST
OKSTL 81-86
+7.5
3
@WIS
WISL 73-85
+2.5
6
vsOSU
OSUL 82-86
+12.5
13
vsJKST
JKSTW 93-53
−0.5
16
vsVAL
VALW 86-70
+10.5
20
vsBTLR
BTLRL 58-61
−35.5
30
vsHOW
HOWW 80-60
−8.5
3
vsMINN
MINNL 78-84
+23.5
8
@MSU
MSUL 66-76
−1.5
11
@RUTG
RUTGL 75-77
+7.5
14
vsILL
ILLL 68-79
−4.5
17
vsNEB
NEBL 58-77
−14.5
21
@USC
USCW 74-68
−7.5
24
@UCLA
UCLAL 64-71
−8.5
over 10under 10avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Penn State
9-11 overall · 0-9 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Ohio State78–84
- Lvs Wisconsin71–98
- L@ Maryland73–96
- Lvs UCLA60–71
- L@ Purdue85–93
3 days since their last game.
Northwestern
9-11 overall · 1-8 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ UCLA64–71
- W@ USC74–68
- Lvs Nebraska58–77
- Lvs Illinois68–79
- L@ Rutgers75–77
5 days since their last game.