Galen Center · at USC · Conference game
Closing line
USC -9.5✓ USC covered by 7.5
USC -9.5✓ USC covered by 7.5Closing total150.5Over by 8.5
 MD | This season | USC |
|---|---|---|
| 7-9 | Record | 12-3 |
| 7-9 | ATS | 7-8 |
| 10-6 | O/U | 8-7 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MD 75–83 USC · ✓ USC (75%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MD | 41 | 30 | 71 |
| USC | 42 | 46 | 88 |
1st half: MD 41, USC 42 (USC by 1). The model had USC by 4.4 and a total of 73.7 (actual 83).
Team stats
| MD | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| 21-48 44% | Field goals | 34-66 52% |
| 8-22 36% | 3-pointers | 8-25 32% |
| 21-27 78% | Free throws | 12-16 75% |
| 24 4 off | Rebounds | 35 13 off |
| 6 | Assists | 23 |
| 4 | Steals | 6 |
| 3 | Blocks | 5 |
| 12 | Turnovers | 6 |
| 20 | Fouls | 22 |
| 14 | Points in paint | 44 |
| 1 | Fast-break points | 11 |
Players
| MD | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Saunders F | 39 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Isaiah Watts G | 35 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| David Coit G | 35 | 30 | 1 | 1 | 9-18 | 4-11 |
| Solomon Washington F | 23 | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3-10 | 1-2 |
| Darius Adams G | 16 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Andre Mills G | 14 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Myles Rice G | 13 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Collin Metcalf C | 11 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| George Turkson Jr. G | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Aleks Alston F | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Pharrel Payne, Rakease Passmore, Lukas Sotell, Jaziah Harper, Guillermo Del Pino, Nick Blake
| USC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Cofie F | 36 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 4-7 | 2-3 |
| Ezra Ausar F | 32 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5-7 | 0-0 |
| Kam Woods G | 22 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1-5 | 0-1 |
| Gabe Dynes C | 21 | 10 | 8 | 0 | 5-6 | 0-0 |
| Ryan Cornish G | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jordan Marsh G | 24 | 20 | 4 | 4 | 7-14 | 4-9 |
| Jaden Brownell F | 22 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 4-12 | 1-7 |
| Jerry Easter II G | 19 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5-6 | 0-0 |
| Chad Baker-Mazara G | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2-5 | 1-2 |
| Terrance Williams II F | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Alijah Arenas, EJ Neal Jr., Jonah Goorin, Amarion Dickerson, Brit Burden, Rodney Rice, Patrick O'Brien
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUSC -9.5
ModelUSC -7.6
Model edgeMD +1.9
L USC covered
Total
Market150.5
Model157.4
Model edgeOver 6.9
W Over
Projected score
MD 74.9 · USC 82.5
MD 71 · USC 88
Win probability
USC 75%
1st half
Spread
USC -4.4
USC -1.0
Total
73.7
83 points
Projected score
MD 34.6 · USC 39
MD 41 · USC 42
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUSC -8.5
1 → USC
CloseUSC -9.5
1 pt toward USC
Total
Open148.5
▲ 2
Close150.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
MD +370 · USC -485
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened USC -8.5 · closed USC -9.5 · moved 1 toward USCmodel USC -7.5
model USC -7.5
Opened 148.5 · closed 150.5 · moved 2 upmodel 157.5
model 157.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MD | 2-8 20% | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% |
| USC | 7-3 70% | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
MD 1–0 USCMD leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · MD 1-0 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 20, 2024-25 | USC 71 @ MD 88 | MD -11.5 | MD W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Maryland
16 games played
Straight up
7-9
44% wins
Against the spread
7-9
44% covers · avg −4.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-6
63% overs · avg +0.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs COPP | W 83-61 | -28.5 | L −6.5 | 139.5 | O 144 |
| Nov 7 | vs GTWN | L 60-70 | -4.5 | L −14.5 | 144.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 11 | vs ALCN | W 84-64 | -29.5 | L −9.5 | 146.5 | O 148 |
| Nov 15 | @ MARQ | W 89-82 | +8.5 | W +15.5 | 146.5 | O 171 |
| Nov 19 | vs MSM | W 95-90 | -17.5 | L −12.5 | 145.5 | O 185 |
| Nov 24 | vs UNLV | W 74-67 | -2.5 | W +4.5 | 164.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 25 | vs GONZ | L 61-100 | +14.5 | L −24.5 | 157.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 26 | vs ALA | L 72-105 | +14.5 | L −18.5 | 166.5 | O 177 |
| Dec 2 | vs WAG | W 89-63 | -22.5 | W +3.5 | 143.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 6 | @ IOWA | L 64-83 | +10.5 | L −8.5 | 137.5 | O 147 |
| Dec 13 | vs MICH | L 83-101 | +19.5 | W +1.5 | 163.5 | O 184 |
| Dec 20 | @ UVA | L 72-80 | +16.5 | W +8.5 | 153.5 | U 152 |
| Dec 28 | vs ODU | W 73-58 | -14.5 | W +0.5 | 154.5 | U 131 |
| Jan 2 | vs ORE | L 54-64 | +1.5 | L −8.5 | 146.5 | U 118 |
| Jan 7 | vs IU | L 66-84 | +7.5 | L −10.5 | 147.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 10 | @ UCLA | L 55-67 | +13.5 | W +1.5 | 147.5 | U 122 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCOPP
COPPW 83-61
−6.5
7
vsGTWN
GTWNL 60-70
−14.5
11
vsALCN
ALCNW 84-64
−9.5
15
@MARQ
MARQW 89-82
+15.5
19
vsMSM
MSMW 95-90
−12.5
24
vsUNLV
UNLVW 74-67
+4.5
25
vsGONZ
GONZL 61-100
−24.5
26
vsALA
ALAL 72-105
−18.5
2
vsWAG
WAGW 89-63
+3.5
6
@IOWA
IOWAL 64-83
−8.5
13
vsMICH
MICHL 83-101
+1.5
20
@UVA
UVAL 72-80
+8.5
28
vsODU
ODUW 73-58
+0.5
2
vsORE
OREL 54-64
−8.5
7
vsIU
IUL 66-84
−10.5
10
@UCLA
UCLAL 55-67
+1.5
covered 7didn’t cover 9avg −4.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCOPP
COPPW 83-61
+4.5
7
vsGTWN
GTWNL 60-70
−14.5
11
vsALCN
ALCNW 84-64
+1.5
15
@MARQ
MARQW 89-82
+24.5
19
vsMSM
MSMW 95-90
+39.5
24
vsUNLV
UNLVW 74-67
−23.5
25
vsGONZ
GONZL 61-100
+3.5
26
vsALA
ALAL 72-105
+10.5
2
vsWAG
WAGW 89-63
+8.5
6
@IOWA
IOWAL 64-83
+9.5
13
vsMICH
MICHL 83-101
+20.5
20
@UVA
UVAL 72-80
−1.5
28
vsODU
ODUW 73-58
−23.5
2
vsORE
OREL 54-64
−28.5
7
vsIU
IUL 66-84
+2.5
10
@UCLA
UCLAL 55-67
−25.5
over 10under 6avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
USC
15 games played
Straight up
12-3
80% wins
Against the spread
7-8
47% covers · avg −2.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-7
53% overs · avg +3.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs CP | W 94-64 | -24.5 | W +5.5 | 163.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 9 | vs MAN | W 114-83 | -28.5 | W +2.5 | 155.5 | O 197 |
| Nov 14 | vs ILST | W 87-67 | -15.5 | W +4.5 | 155.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 20 | vs TROY | W 107-106 | -18.5 | L −17.5 | 159.5 | O 213 |
| Nov 24 | vs BOIS | W 70-67 | -3.5 | L −0.5 | 155.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 25 | vs HALL | W 83-81 | -6.5 | L −4.5 | 145.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 26 | vs ASU | W 88-75 | -4.5 | W +8.5 | 161.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 2 | @ORE | W 82-77 | -2.5 | W +2.5 | 154.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 6 | vs WASH | L 76-84 | -4.5 | L −12.5 | 154.5 | O 160 |
| Dec 9 | @ USD | W 94-81 | -14.5 | L −1.5 | 158.5 | O 175 |
| Dec 14 | vs WSU | W 68-61 | -12.5 | L −5.5 | 156.5 | U 129 |
| Dec 17 | vs UTSA | W 97-70 | -25.5 | W +1.5 | 157.5 | O 167 |
| Jan 2 | @MICH | L 66-96 | +22.5 | L −7.5 | 173.5 | U 162 |
| Jan 5 | @ MSU | L 51-80 | +11.5 | L −17.5 | 151.5 | U 131 |
| Jan 9 | @ MINN | W 70-69 | +3.5 | W +4.5 | 147.5 | U 139 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCP
CPW 94-64
+5.5
9
vsMAN
MANW 114-83
+2.5
14
vsILST
ILSTW 87-67
+4.5
20
vsTROY
TROYW 107-106
−17.5
24
vsBOIS
BOISW 70-67
−0.5
25
vsHALL
HALLW 83-81
−4.5
26
vsASU
ASUW 88-75
+8.5
2
@ORE
OREW 82-77
+2.5
6
vsWASH
WASHL 76-84
−12.5
9
@USD
USDW 94-81
−1.5
14
vsWSU
WSUW 68-61
−5.5
17
vsUTSA
UTSAW 97-70
+1.5
2
@MICH
MICHL 66-96
−7.5
5
@MSU
MSUL 51-80
−17.5
9
@MINN
MINNW 70-69
+4.5
covered 7didn’t cover 8avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCP
CPW 94-64
−5.5
9
vsMAN
MANW 114-83
+41.5
14
vsILST
ILSTW 87-67
−1.5
20
vsTROY
TROYW 107-106
+53.5
24
vsBOIS
BOISW 70-67
−18.5
25
vsHALL
HALLW 83-81
+18.5
26
vsASU
ASUW 88-75
+1.5
2
@ORE
OREW 82-77
+4.5
6
vsWASH
WASHL 76-84
+5.5
9
@USD
USDW 94-81
+16.5
14
vsWSU
WSUW 68-61
−27.5
17
vsUTSA
UTSAW 97-70
+9.5
2
@MICH
MICHL 66-96
−11.5
5
@MSU
MSUL 51-80
−20.5
9
@MINN
MINNW 70-69
−8.5
over 8under 7avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Maryland
7-9 overall · 0-5 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ UCLA55–67
- Lvs Indiana66–84
- Lvs Oregon54–64
- Wvs Old Dominion73–58
- L@ Virginia72–80
3 days since their last game.
USC
12-3 overall · 2-3 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Minnesota70–69
- L@ Michigan St51–80
- L@ Michigan66–96
- Wvs UTSA97–70
- Wvs Washington St68–61
4 days since their last game.