Cintas Center · at Xavier · Conference game
Closing line
XAV -1.5✓ XAV covered by 6.5
XAV -1.5✓ XAV covered by 6.5Closing total157.5Over by 26.5
 MARQ | This season | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| 9-16 | Record | 12-12 |
| 9-16 | ATS | 12-12 |
| 13-12 | O/U | 16-8 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MARQ 78–80 XAV · ✓ XAV (56%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MARQ | 35 | 53 | 88 |
| XAV | 51 | 45 | 96 |
1st half: MARQ 35, XAV 51 (XAV by 16). The model had XAV by 0.8 and a total of 73.6 (actual 86).
Team stats
| MARQ | XAV | |
|---|---|---|
| 36-70 51% | Field goals | 31-67 46% |
| 8-25 32% | 3-pointers | 16-34 47% |
| 8-11 73% | Free throws | 18-21 86% |
| 36 11 off | Rebounds | 40 14 off |
| 24 | Assists | 24 |
| 4 | Steals | 6 |
| 5 | Blocks | 3 |
| 9 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 56 | Points in paint | 24 |
| 11 | Fast-break points | 21 |
Players
| MARQ | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royce Parham F | 35 | 24 | 10 | 2 | 9-14 | 2-4 |
| Nigel James Jr. G | 33 | 30 | 4 | 12 | 13-22 | 2-5 |
| Ben Gold F | 30 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 5-8 | 0-3 |
| Adrien Stevens G | 30 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 3-7 | 2-4 |
| Chase Ross G | 29 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 3-12 | 1-7 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Tre Norman G | 14 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Damarius Owens SF | 14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Caedin Hamilton F | 10 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Michael Phillips II SF | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
Did not play: Joshua Clark, Nash Walker, Braeden Brenn, Sheek Pearson, Ian Miletic, Sean Jones, Casey O'Malley, Jonah Lucas
| XAV | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Messina-Moore G | 36 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 2-9 | 2-7 |
| Filip Borovicanin F | 33 | 15 | 11 | 7 | 4-13 | 3-8 |
| Jovan Milicevic F | 32 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 8-13 | 5-7 |
| All Wright G | 30 | 19 | 1 | 2 | 6-8 | 3-5 |
| Tre Carroll F | 28 | 18 | 7 | 4 | 6-15 | 2-6 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Isaiah Walker G | 20 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Roddie Anderson G | 13 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3-6 | 1-1 |
| Anthony Robinson F | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Kason Westphal, Gabriel Pozzato, Luke Naser, Henry Thole, Michael Wolf, Mier Panoam, Pape N'Diaye, Ian Sabourin
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketXAV -1.5
ModelXAV -1.6
Model edgeXAV +0.1
W XAV covered
Total
Market157.5
Model157.4
Model edgeUnder 0.1
L Over
Projected score
MARQ 77.9 · XAV 79.5
MARQ 88 · XAV 96
Win probability
XAV 56%
1st half
Spread
XAV -0.8
XAV -16.0
Total
73.6
86 points
Projected score
MARQ 36.4 · XAV 37.2
MARQ 35 · XAV 51
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenXAV -2.5
1 → MARQ
CloseXAV -1.5
1 pt toward MARQ
Total
Open155.5
▲ 2
Close157.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
MARQ +110 · XAV -130
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened XAV -2.5 · closed XAV -1.5 · moved 1 toward MARQmodel XAV -1.5 matches the line
model XAV -1.5 = line ✓
Opened 155.5 · closed 157.5 · moved 2 upmodel 157.5 matches the line
model 157.5 = line ✓
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MARQ | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% |
| XAV | 3-7 30% | 6-4 60% | 8-2 80% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 11 since 2021-22
MARQ 8–3 XAVMARQ leads · 11 games since 2021-22 · MARQ has won the last 2 meetings · MARQ 5-6 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2025-26 | XAV 65 @ MARQ 66 | MARQ -5.5 | XAV W |
| Mar 13, 2024-25 | MARQ 89 vs XAV 87 | XAV +2.5 | XAV W |
| Jan 18, 2024-25 | XAV 59 @ MARQ 57 | MARQ -9.5 | XAV W |
| Dec 21, 2024-25 | MARQ 72 @ XAV 70 | XAV +4.5 | XAV W |
| Mar 9, 2023-24 | MARQ 86 @ XAV 80 | XAV +3.5 | MARQ W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Marquette
25 games played
Straight up
9-16
36% wins
Against the spread
9-16
36% covers · avg −3.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-12
52% overs · avg −0.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs UALB | W 80-53 | -24.5 | W +2.5 | 149.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 5 | vs SOU | W 100-82 | -24.5 | L −6.5 | 155.5 | O 182 |
| Nov 9 | vs IU | L 77-100 | +3.5 | L −19.5 | 156.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 12 | vs LR | W 89-49 | -21.5 | W +18.5 | 155.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 15 | vs MD | L 82-89 | -8.5 | L −15.5 | 146.5 | O 171 |
| Nov 19 | vs DAY | L 71-77 | -6.5 | L −12.5 | 151.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 22 | vs CMU | W 85-71 | -25.5 | L −11.5 | 152.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 28 | vs OU | L 74-75 | +1.5 | W +0.5 | 162.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 2 | vs VAL | W 75-72 | -17.5 | L −14.5 | 146.5 | O 147 |
| Dec 6 | @ WIS | L 76-96 | +11.5 | L −8.5 | 160.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 13 | @ PUR | L 59-79 | +16.5 | L −3.5 | 154.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 17 | vs GTWN | L 69-78 | -6.5 | L −15.5 | 149.5 | U 147 |
| Dec 20 | @ CREI | L 63-84 | +6.5 | L −14.5 | 151.5 | U 147 |
| Dec 30 | vs HALL | L 73-79 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Jan 4 | @ CONN | L 57-73 | +17.5 | W +1.5 | 144.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 7 | vsXAV | W 66-65 | -5.5 | L −4.5 | 157.5 | U 131 |
| Jan 10 | vs VILL | L 73-76 | +3.5 | W +0.5 | 146.5 | O 149 |
| Jan 13 | @ SJU | L 68-92 | +15.5 | L −8.5 | 155.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 16 | @ DEP | L 75-80 | +2.5 | L −2.5 | 145.5 | O 155 |
| Jan 19 | vs PROV | W 105-104 | -2.5 | L −1.5 | 167.5 | O 209 |
| Jan 23 | @ BTLR | L 76-87 | +5.5 | L −5.5 | 161.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 27 | vsCREI | W 86-62 | +1.5 | W +25.5 | 154.5 | U 148 |
| Jan 31 | @HALL | L 64-69 | +6.5 | W +1.5 | 143.5 | U 133 |
| Feb 7 | vsBTLR | W 70-55 | -3.5 | W +11.5 | 155.5 | U 125 |
| Feb 10 | @VILL | L 74-77 | +9.5 | W +6.5 | 144.5 | O 151 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsUALB
UALBW 80-53
+2.5
5
vsSOU
SOUW 100-82
−6.5
9
vsIU
IUL 77-100
−19.5
12
vsLR
LRW 89-49
+18.5
15
vsMD
MDL 82-89
−15.5
19
vsDAY
DAYL 71-77
−12.5
22
vsCMU
CMUW 85-71
−11.5
28
vsOU
OUL 74-75
+0.5
2
vsVAL
VALW 75-72
−14.5
6
@WIS
WISL 76-96
−8.5
13
@PUR
PURL 59-79
−3.5
17
vsGTWN
GTWNL 69-78
−15.5
20
@CREI
CREIL 63-84
−14.5
30
vsHALL
HALLL 73-79
−7.5
4
@CONN
CONNL 57-73
+1.5
7
vsXAV
XAVW 66-65
−4.5
10
vsVILL
VILLL 73-76
+0.5
13
@SJU
SJUL 68-92
−8.5
16
@DEP
DEPL 75-80
−2.5
19
vsPROV
PROVW 105-104
−1.5
23
@BTLR
BTLRL 76-87
−5.5
27
vsCREI
CREIW 86-62
+25.5
31
@HALL
HALLL 64-69
+1.5
7
vsBTLR
BTLRW 70-55
+11.5
10
@VILL
VILLL 74-77
+6.5
covered 9didn’t cover 16avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsUALB
UALBW 80-53
−16.5
5
vsSOU
SOUW 100-82
+26.5
9
vsIU
IUL 77-100
+20.5
12
vsLR
LRW 89-49
−17.5
15
vsMD
MDL 82-89
+24.5
19
vsDAY
DAYL 71-77
−3.5
22
vsCMU
CMUW 85-71
+3.5
28
vsOU
OUL 74-75
−13.5
2
vsVAL
VALW 75-72
+0.5
6
@WIS
WISL 76-96
+11.5
13
@PUR
PURL 59-79
−16.5
17
vsGTWN
GTWNL 69-78
−2.5
20
@CREI
CREIL 63-84
−4.5
30
vsHALL
HALLL 73-79
+6.5
4
@CONN
CONNL 57-73
−14.5
7
vsXAV
XAVW 66-65
−26.5
10
vsVILL
VILLL 73-76
+2.5
13
@SJU
SJUL 68-92
+4.5
16
@DEP
DEPL 75-80
+9.5
19
vsPROV
PROVW 105-104
+41.5
23
@BTLR
BTLRL 76-87
+1.5
27
vsCREI
CREIW 86-62
−6.5
31
@HALL
HALLL 64-69
−10.5
7
vsBTLR
BTLRW 70-55
−30.5
10
@VILL
VILLL 74-77
+6.5
over 13under 12avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Xavier
24 games played
Straight up
12-12
50% wins
Against the spread
12-12
50% covers · avg −1.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
16-8
67% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs MRST | W 66-62 | -12.5 | L −8.5 | 139.5 | U 128 |
| Nov 6 | vs LEM | W 74-69 | -24.5 | L −19.5 | 156.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 10 | vs SCU | L 68-87 | -3.5 | L −22.5 | 155.5 | U 155 |
| Nov 14 | @ IOWA | L 62-81 | +15.5 | L −3.5 | 143.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 18 | vs ODU | W 99-69 | -10.5 | W +19.5 | 150.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 21 | vs UGA | L 77-78 | +10.5 | W +9.5 | 165.5 | U 155 |
| Nov 23 | vs WVU | W 78-68 | +5.5 | W +15.5 | 140.5 | O 146 |
| Nov 28 | vs AMCC | W 88-67 | -13.5 | W +7.5 | 146.5 | O 155 |
| Dec 1 | vs SFPA | W 96-74 | -27.5 | L −5.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 5 | vs CIN | W 79-74 | +1.5 | W +6.5 | 147.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 12 | vs MOST | W 75-57 | -18.5 | L −0.5 | 151.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 17 | vsCREI | L 57-98 | -2.5 | L −43.5 | 151.5 | O 155 |
| Dec 20 | @GTWN | W 80-77 | +4.5 | W +7.5 | 149.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 31 | vsCONN | L 67-90 | +11.5 | L −11.5 | 144.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 3 | @DEP | L 77-86 | +2.5 | L −6.5 | 149.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 7 | @MARQ | L 65-66 | +5.5 | W +4.5 | 157.5 | U 131 |
| Jan 10 | vsPROV | W 97-84 | +1.5 | W +14.5 | 165.5 | O 181 |
| Jan 14 | vsBTLR | W 89-75 | +1.5 | W +15.5 | 161.5 | O 164 |
| Jan 21 | @CREI | L 93-94 | +8.5 | W +7.5 | 155.5 | O 187 |
| Jan 24 | vsSJU | L 83-88 | +8.5 | W +3.5 | 159.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 28 | @HALL | L 68-86 | +5.5 | L −12.5 | 145.5 | O 154 |
| Jan 31 | vsDEP | W 68-66 | -4.5 | L −2.5 | 150.5 | U 134 |
| Feb 3 | @CONN | L 60-92 | +16.5 | L −15.5 | 147.5 | O 152 |
| Feb 9 | @SJU | L 82-87 | +16.5 | W +11.5 | 159.5 | O 169 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsMRST
MRSTW 66-62
−8.5
6
vsLEM
LEMW 74-69
−19.5
10
vsSCU
SCUL 68-87
−22.5
14
@IOWA
IOWAL 62-81
−3.5
18
vsODU
ODUW 99-69
+19.5
21
vsUGA
UGAL 77-78
+9.5
23
vsWVU
WVUW 78-68
+15.5
28
vsAMCC
AMCCW 88-67
+7.5
1
vsSFPA
SFPAW 96-74
−5.5
5
vsCIN
CINW 79-74
+6.5
12
vsMOST
MOSTW 75-57
−0.5
17
vsCREI
CREIL 57-98
−43.5
20
@GTWN
GTWNW 80-77
+7.5
31
vsCONN
CONNL 67-90
−11.5
3
@DEP
DEPL 77-86
−6.5
7
@MARQ
MARQL 65-66
+4.5
10
vsPROV
PROVW 97-84
+14.5
14
vsBTLR
BTLRW 89-75
+15.5
21
@CREI
CREIL 93-94
+7.5
24
vsSJU
SJUL 83-88
+3.5
28
@HALL
HALLL 68-86
−12.5
31
vsDEP
DEPW 68-66
−2.5
3
@CONN
CONNL 60-92
−15.5
9
@SJU
SJUL 82-87
+11.5
covered 12didn’t cover 12avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsMRST
MRSTW 66-62
−11.5
6
vsLEM
LEMW 74-69
−13.5
10
vsSCU
SCUL 68-87
−0.5
14
@IOWA
IOWAL 62-81
−0.5
18
vsODU
ODUW 99-69
+17.5
21
vsUGA
UGAL 77-78
−10.5
23
vsWVU
WVUW 78-68
+5.5
28
vsAMCC
AMCCW 88-67
+8.5
1
vsSFPA
SFPAW 96-74
+17.5
5
vsCIN
CINW 79-74
+5.5
12
vsMOST
MOSTW 75-57
−19.5
17
vsCREI
CREIL 57-98
+3.5
20
@GTWN
GTWNW 80-77
+7.5
31
vsCONN
CONNL 67-90
+12.5
3
@DEP
DEPL 77-86
+13.5
7
@MARQ
MARQL 65-66
−26.5
10
vsPROV
PROVW 97-84
+15.5
14
vsBTLR
BTLRW 89-75
+2.5
21
@CREI
CREIL 93-94
+31.5
24
vsSJU
SJUL 83-88
+11.5
28
@HALL
HALLL 68-86
+8.5
31
vsDEP
DEPW 68-66
−16.5
3
@CONN
CONNL 60-92
+4.5
9
@SJU
SJUL 82-87
+9.5
over 16under 8avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Marquette
9-16 overall · 4-10 in conference · Big East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Villanova74–77
- Wvs Butler70–55
- L@ Seton Hall64–69
- Wvs Creighton86–62
- L@ Butler76–87
4 days since their last game.
Xavier
12-12 overall · 4-9 in conference · Big East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ St John's82–87
- L@ UConn60–92
- Wvs DePaul68–66
- L@ Seton Hall68–86
- Lvs St John's83–88
5 days since their last game.