Purcell Pavilion · at Notre Dame · Conference game
Closing line
NCSU -6.5✓ ND covered by 12.5
NCSU -6.5✓ ND covered by 12.5Closing total153.5Over by 32.5
| NCSU | This season | ND |
|---|---|---|
| 19-9 | Record | 12-16 |
| 14-14 | ATS | 14-14 |
| 16-12 | O/U | 19-9 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: NCSU 80–74 ND · ✗ NCSU (69%) lost
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCSU | 44 | 37 | 9 | 90 |
| ND | 38 | 43 | 15 | 96 |
1st half: NCSU 44, ND 38 (NCSU by 6). The model had NCSU by 3.6 and a total of 71.9 (actual 82).
Team stats
| NCSU | ND | |
|---|---|---|
| 31-67 46% | Field goals | 31-59 53% |
| 10-34 29% | 3-pointers | 12-25 48% |
| 18-22 82% | Free throws | 22-28 79% |
| 32 12 off | Rebounds | 40 13 off |
| 14 | Assists | 15 |
| 10 | Steals | 3 |
| 3 | Blocks | 0 |
| 6 | Turnovers | 12 |
| 21 | Fouls | 18 |
| 42 | Points in paint | 36 |
| 2 | Fast-break points | 16 |
Players
| NCSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quadir Copeland G | 42 | 17 | 2 | 9 | 5-8 | 0-0 |
| Ven-Allen Lubin F | 39 | 24 | 10 | 0 | 8-10 | 0-0 |
| Paul McNeil Jr. G | 36 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 4-13 | 3-11 |
| Tre Holloman G | 35 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2-8 | 2-7 |
| Darrion Williams F | 33 | 17 | 6 | 2 | 7-17 | 3-10 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Terrance Arceneaux G | 20 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 3-7 | 1-3 |
| Matt Able G | 16 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2-4 | 1-3 |
| Scottie Ebube C | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Musa Sagnia C | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jordan Snell, Jayme Kontuniemi, Jerry Deng, Zymicah Wilkins, Colt Langdon, Alyn Breed
| ND | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braeden Shrewsberry G | 41 | 16 | 5 | 3 | 5-10 | 3-6 |
| Cole Certa G | 41 | 32 | 2 | 2 | 9-17 | 6-10 |
| Logan Imes G | 36 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 3-8 | 2-5 |
| Carson Towt F | 30 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Brady Koehler F | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jalen Haralson G | 28 | 25 | 9 | 2 | 8-15 | 0-1 |
| Sir Mohammed G | 22 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4-6 | 0-1 |
| Garrett Sundra F | 12 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Ryder Frost F | 10 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
Did not play: Matthew MacLellan, Luke Devine, Tommy Ahneman, Markus Burton, Brady Stevens, Mark Zackery IV, Kebba Njie
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenNCSU -6.5
no move
CloseNCSU -6.5
No change since the open
Total
Open153.5
no move
Close153.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
NCSU -305 · ND +245
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened NCSU -6.5 · unchangedmodel NCSU -6
model NCSU -6
Opened 153.5 · unchangedmodel 153.5 matches the line
model 153.5 = line ✓
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | NCSU -6.5 | NCSU -5.8 | ND +0.7 | W ND covered |
| Total | 153.5 | 153.7 | Over 0.2 | W Over |
| Projected score | — | NCSU 79.8 · ND 73.9 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | NCSU -3.6 | NCSU -6.0 |
| 1H total | 71.9 | 82 |
| 1H projected score | NCSU 37.7 · ND 34.1 | NCSU 44 · ND 38 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NCSU | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% | 7-3 70% |
| ND | 2-8 20% | 4-6 40% | 8-2 80% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
NCSU 3–2 NDNCSU leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · NCSU has won the last 3 meetings · NCSU 0-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2024-25 | ND 65 @ NCSU 66 | NCSU -2.5 | ND W |
| Jan 3, 2023-24 | NCSU 54 @ ND 52 | ND +4.5 | ND W |
| Jan 24, 2022-23 | ND 82 @ NCSU 85 | NCSU -8.5 | ND W |
| Feb 5, 2021-22 | ND 69 @ NCSU 57 | NCSU -1 | ND W |
| Jan 26, 2021-22 | NCSU 65 @ ND 73 | ND -5 | ND W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
NC State
28 games played
Straight up
19-9
68% wins
Against the spread
14-14
50% covers · avg +0 pts vs the line
Over / Under
16-12
57% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs NCCU | W 114-66 | -31.5 | W +16.5 | 145.5 | O 180 |
| Nov 7 | vs UAB | W 94-70 | -19.5 | W +4.5 | 162.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 12 | vs UNCG | W 110-64 | -30.5 | W +15.5 | 153.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 17 | vs VCU | W 85-79 | -11.5 | L −5.5 | 164.5 | U 164 |
| Nov 24 | vs HALL | L 74-85 | -7.5 | L −18.5 | 143.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 25 | vs BOIS | W 81-70 | -6.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 26 | vs TEX | L 97-102 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 161.5 | O 199 |
| Dec 3 | @ AUB | L 73-83 | +5.5 | L −4.5 | 162.5 | U 156 |
| Dec 6 | vs UNCA | W 75-63 | -28.5 | L −16.5 | 155.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 10 | vs LIB | W 85-45 | -12.5 | W +27.5 | 149.5 | U 130 |
| Dec 13 | vs KU | L 76-77 | -1.5 | L −2.5 | 148.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 17 | vs TXSO | W 108-72 | -34.5 | W +1.5 | 152.5 | O 180 |
| Dec 21 | vs MISS | W 76-62 | -7.5 | W +6.5 | 148.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 31 | vs WAKE | W 70-57 | -10.5 | W +2.5 | 159.5 | U 127 |
| Jan 3 | vs UVA | L 61-76 | -4.5 | L −19.5 | 151.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 6 | @ BC | W 79-71 | -11.5 | L −3.5 | 141.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 10 | @ FSU | W 113-69 | -4.5 | W +39.5 | 160.5 | O 182 |
| Jan 17 | vs GT | L 74-78 | -17.5 | L −21.5 | 154.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 20 | @ CLEM | W 80-76 | +2.5 | W +6.5 | 142.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 24 | @ PITT | W 81-72 | -6.5 | W +2.5 | 144.5 | O 153 |
| Jan 27 | vs SYR | W 88-68 | -10.5 | W +9.5 | 151.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 31 | @WAKE | W 96-78 | -5.5 | W +12.5 | 156.5 | O 174 |
| Feb 3 | @ SMU | W 84-83 | -1.5 | L −0.5 | 159.5 | O 167 |
| Feb 7 | vs VT | W 82-73 | -10.5 | L −1.5 | 154.5 | O 155 |
| Feb 9 | @ LOU | L 77-118 | +6.5 | L −34.5 | 161.5 | O 195 |
| Feb 14 | vs MIA | L 76-77 | -5.5 | L −6.5 | 157.5 | U 153 |
| Feb 17 | vs UNC | W 82-58 | -8.5 | W +15.5 | 156.5 | U 140 |
| Feb 24 | @UVA | L 61-90 | +6.5 | L −22.5 | 151.5 | U 151 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsNCCU
NCCUW 114-66
+16.5
7
vsUAB
UABW 94-70
+4.5
12
vsUNCG
UNCGW 110-64
+15.5
17
vsVCU
VCUW 85-79
−5.5
24
vsHALL
HALLL 74-85
−18.5
25
vsBOIS
BOISW 81-70
+4.5
26
vsTEX
TEXL 97-102
−6.5
3
@AUB
AUBL 73-83
−4.5
6
vsUNCA
UNCAW 75-63
−16.5
10
vsLIB
LIBW 85-45
+27.5
13
vsKU
KUL 76-77
−2.5
17
vsTXSO
TXSOW 108-72
+1.5
21
vsMISS
MISSW 76-62
+6.5
31
vsWAKE
WAKEW 70-57
+2.5
3
vsUVA
UVAL 61-76
−19.5
6
@BC
BCW 79-71
−3.5
10
@FSU
FSUW 113-69
+39.5
17
vsGT
GTL 74-78
−21.5
20
@CLEM
CLEMW 80-76
+6.5
24
@PITT
PITTW 81-72
+2.5
27
vsSYR
SYRW 88-68
+9.5
31
@WAKE
WAKEW 96-78
+12.5
3
@SMU
SMUW 84-83
−0.5
7
vsVT
VTW 82-73
−1.5
9
@LOU
LOUL 77-118
−34.5
14
vsMIA
MIAL 76-77
−6.5
17
vsUNC
UNCW 82-58
+15.5
24
@UVA
UVAL 61-90
−22.5
covered 14didn’t cover 14avg +0 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsNCCU
NCCUW 114-66
+34.5
7
vsUAB
UABW 94-70
+1.5
12
vsUNCG
UNCGW 110-64
+20.5
17
vsVCU
VCUW 85-79
−0.5
24
vsHALL
HALLL 74-85
+15.5
25
vsBOIS
BOISW 81-70
−1.5
26
vsTEX
TEXL 97-102
+37.5
3
@AUB
AUBL 73-83
−6.5
6
vsUNCA
UNCAW 75-63
−17.5
10
vsLIB
LIBW 85-45
−19.5
13
vsKU
KUL 76-77
+4.5
17
vsTXSO
TXSOW 108-72
+27.5
21
vsMISS
MISSW 76-62
−10.5
31
vsWAKE
WAKEW 70-57
−32.5
3
vsUVA
UVAL 61-76
−14.5
6
@BC
BCW 79-71
+8.5
10
@FSU
FSUW 113-69
+21.5
17
vsGT
GTL 74-78
−2.5
20
@CLEM
CLEMW 80-76
+13.5
24
@PITT
PITTW 81-72
+8.5
27
vsSYR
SYRW 88-68
+4.5
31
@WAKE
WAKEW 96-78
+17.5
3
@SMU
SMUW 84-83
+7.5
7
vsVT
VTW 82-73
+0.5
9
@LOU
LOUL 77-118
+33.5
14
vsMIA
MIAL 76-77
−4.5
17
vsUNC
UNCW 82-58
−16.5
24
@UVA
UVAL 61-90
−0.5
over 16under 12avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Notre Dame
28 games played
Straight up
12-16
43% wins
Against the spread
14-14
50% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
19-9
68% overs · avg +3.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs LIU | W 89-67 | -15.5 | W +6.5 | 135.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 7 | vs DETM | W 102-70 | -21.5 | W +10.5 | 147.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 11 | vs EIU | W 78-58 | -23.5 | L −3.5 | 143.5 | U 136 |
| Nov 16 | @ OSU | L 63-64 | +9.5 | W +8.5 | 156.5 | U 127 |
| Nov 19 | vs BELL | W 86-79 | -24.5 | L −17.5 | 150.5 | O 165 |
| Nov 24 | vsKU | L 61-71 | +5.5 | L −4.5 | 143.5 | U 132 |
| Nov 25 | vs RUTG | W 68-63 | -6.5 | L −1.5 | 140.5 | U 131 |
| Nov 26 | vs HOU | L 56-66 | +11.5 | W +1.5 | 132.5 | U 122 |
| Dec 2 | vs MIZ | W 76-71 | +1.5 | W +6.5 | 146.5 | O 147 |
| Dec 5 | @ TCU | W 87-85 | +6.5 | W +8.5 | 141.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 10 | vs IDHO | W 80-65 | -11.5 | W +3.5 | 144.5 | O 145 |
| Dec 13 | vs EVAN | W 82-58 | -14.5 | W +9.5 | 136.5 | O 140 |
| Dec 21 | vs PFW | L 69-72 | -11.5 | L −14.5 | 149.5 | U 141 |
| Dec 30 | @ STAN | W 47-40 | +6.5 | W +13.5 | 143.5 | U 87 |
| Jan 2 | @ CAL | L 71-72 | +3.5 | W +2.5 | 138.5 | O 143 |
| Jan 10 | vsCLEM | L 61-76 | +3.5 | L −11.5 | 133.5 | O 137 |
| Jan 13 | vsMIA | L 69-81 | +5.5 | L −6.5 | 143.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 17 | @VT | L 76-89 | +6.5 | L −6.5 | 143.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 21 | @UNC | L 69-91 | +13.5 | L −8.5 | 149.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 24 | vsBC | W 68-64 | -7.5 | L −3.5 | 137.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 27 | vsUVA | L 97-100 | +9.5 | W +6.5 | 145.5 | O 197 |
| Jan 31 | @SYR | L 72-86 | +6.5 | L −7.5 | 147.5 | O 158 |
| Feb 4 | @LOU | L 65-76 | +19.5 | W +8.5 | 155.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 7 | vsFSU | L 79-82 | -1.5 | L −4.5 | 154.5 | O 161 |
| Feb 10 | @SMU | L 81-89 | +10.5 | W +2.5 | 154.5 | O 170 |
| Feb 14 | vsGT | W 89-74 | -5.5 | W +9.5 | 150.5 | O 163 |
| Feb 21 | @PITT | L 68-73 | +3.5 | L −1.5 | 140.5 | O 141 |
| Feb 24 | vs DUKE | L 56-100 | +16.5 | L −27.5 | 141.5 | O 156 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsLIU
LIUW 89-67
+6.5
7
vsDETM
DETMW 102-70
+10.5
11
vsEIU
EIUW 78-58
−3.5
16
@OSU
OSUL 63-64
+8.5
19
vsBELL
BELLW 86-79
−17.5
24
vsKU
KUL 61-71
−4.5
25
vsRUTG
RUTGW 68-63
−1.5
26
vsHOU
HOUL 56-66
+1.5
2
vsMIZ
MIZW 76-71
+6.5
5
@TCU
TCUW 87-85
+8.5
10
vsIDHO
IDHOW 80-65
+3.5
13
vsEVAN
EVANW 82-58
+9.5
21
vsPFW
PFWL 69-72
−14.5
30
@STAN
STANW 47-40
+13.5
2
@CAL
CALL 71-72
+2.5
10
vsCLEM
CLEML 61-76
−11.5
13
vsMIA
MIAL 69-81
−6.5
17
@VT
VTL 76-89
−6.5
21
@UNC
UNCL 69-91
−8.5
24
vsBC
BCW 68-64
−3.5
27
vsUVA
UVAL 97-100
+6.5
31
@SYR
SYRL 72-86
−7.5
4
@LOU
LOUL 65-76
+8.5
7
vsFSU
FSUL 79-82
−4.5
10
@SMU
SMUL 81-89
+2.5
14
vsGT
GTW 89-74
+9.5
21
@PITT
PITTL 68-73
−1.5
24
vsDUKE
DUKEL 56-100
−27.5
covered 14didn’t cover 14avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsLIU
LIUW 89-67
+20.5
7
vsDETM
DETMW 102-70
+24.5
11
vsEIU
EIUW 78-58
−7.5
16
@OSU
OSUL 63-64
−29.5
19
vsBELL
BELLW 86-79
+14.5
24
vsKU
KUL 61-71
−11.5
25
vsRUTG
RUTGW 68-63
−9.5
26
vsHOU
HOUL 56-66
−10.5
2
vsMIZ
MIZW 76-71
+0.5
5
@TCU
TCUW 87-85
+30.5
10
vsIDHO
IDHOW 80-65
+0.5
13
vsEVAN
EVANW 82-58
+3.5
21
vsPFW
PFWL 69-72
−8.5
30
@STAN
STANW 47-40
−56.5
2
@CAL
CALL 71-72
+4.5
10
vsCLEM
CLEML 61-76
+3.5
13
vsMIA
MIAL 69-81
+6.5
17
@VT
VTL 76-89
+21.5
21
@UNC
UNCL 69-91
+10.5
24
vsBC
BCW 68-64
−5.5
27
vsUVA
UVAL 97-100
+51.5
31
@SYR
SYRL 72-86
+10.5
4
@LOU
LOUL 65-76
−14.5
7
vsFSU
FSUL 79-82
+6.5
10
@SMU
SMUL 81-89
+15.5
14
vsGT
GTW 89-74
+12.5
21
@PITT
PITTL 68-73
+0.5
24
vsDUKE
DUKEL 56-100
+14.5
over 19under 9avg +3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
NC State
19-9 overall · 10-5 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Virginia61–90
- Wvs North Carolina82–58
- Lvs Miami76–77
- L@ Louisville77–118
- Wvs Virginia Tech82–73
4 days since their last game.
Notre Dame
12-16 overall · 3-12 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Duke56–100
- L@ Pitt68–73
- Wvs Georgia Tech89–74
- L@ SMU81–89
- Lvs Florida St79–82
4 days since their last game.