Lenovo Center · at NC State · Conference game
Closing line
NCSU -5.5✓ MIA covered by 6.5
NCSU -5.5✓ MIA covered by 6.5Closing total157.5Under by 4.5
 MIA | This season | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| 19-5 | Record | 18-7 |
| 12-12 | ATS | 13-12 |
| 16-8 | O/U | 16-9 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MIA 77–81 NCSU · ✗ NCSU (64%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 37 | 40 | 77 |
| NCSU | 42 | 34 | 76 |
1st half: MIA 37, NCSU 42 (NCSU by 5). The model had NCSU by 2.2 and a total of 74.0 (actual 79).
Team stats
| MIA | NCSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 32-67 48% | Field goals | 27-55 49% |
| 3-17 18% | 3-pointers | 9-24 38% |
| 10-20 50% | Free throws | 13-15 87% |
| 40 20 off | Rebounds | 29 8 off |
| 8 | Assists | 12 |
| 7 | Steals | 6 |
| 2 | Blocks | 8 |
| 9 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 56 | Points in paint | 32 |
| 8 | Fast-break points | 3 |
Players
| MIA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Donaldson G | 39 | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5-17 | 0-5 |
| Malik Reneau F | 36 | 26 | 6 | 1 | 12-19 | 1-2 |
| Shelton Henderson F | 35 | 17 | 9 | 1 | 8-13 | 0-4 |
| Ernest Udeh Jr. C | 30 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Dante Allen G | 22 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3-5 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Tru Washington G | 20 | 13 | 6 | 0 | 4-10 | 2-3 |
| Timo Malovec F | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Salih Altuntas C | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Noam Dovrat G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Marcus Allen, Jordyn Kee, Treyvon Maddox, JJ Laboy
| NCSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Holloman G | 33 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0-5 | 0-1 |
| Darrion Williams F | 33 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5-12 | 1-5 |
| Ven-Allen Lubin F | 32 | 17 | 9 | 0 | 7-9 | 0-0 |
| Paul McNeil Jr. G | 31 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 5-8 | 4-7 |
| Quadir Copeland G | 26 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3-10 | 1-5 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Matt Able G | 22 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 6-10 | 3-6 |
| Terrance Arceneaux G | 14 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Musa Sagnia C | 9 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Alyn Breed, Colt Langdon, Jordan Snell, Jerry Deng, Zymicah Wilkins, Jayme Kontuniemi, Scottie Ebube
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenNCSU -5.5
no move
CloseNCSU -5.5
No change since the open
Total
Open157.5
no move
Close157.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
MIA +220 · NCSU -270
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened NCSU -5.5 · unchangedmodel NCSU -4
model NCSU -4
Opened 157.5 · unchangedmodel 158.5
model 158.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | NCSU -5.5 | NCSU -4.0 | MIA +1.5 | W MIA covered |
| Total | 157.5 | 158.3 | Over 0.8 | L Under |
| Projected score | — | MIA 77.2 · NCSU 81.1 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | NCSU -2.2 | NCSU -5.0 |
| 1H total | 74.0 | 79 |
| 1H projected score | MIA 35.9 · NCSU 38.1 | MIA 37 · NCSU 42 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 7-3 70% | 4-6 40% | 7-3 70% |
| NCSU | 8-2 80% | 5-5 50% | 9-1 90% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
MIA 3–2 NCSUMIA leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · MIA 4-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2024-25 | NCSU 70 @ MIA 72 | MIA +2.5 | MIA W |
| Jan 30, 2023-24 | MIA 68 @ NCSU 74 | NCSU -3.5 | NCSU W |
| Jan 14, 2022-23 | MIA 81 @ NCSU 83 | NCSU -3.5 | MIA W |
| Dec 10, 2022-23 | NCSU 73 @ MIA 80 | MIA -4.5 | MIA W |
| Dec 29, 2021-22 | NCSU 83 @ MIA 91 | MIA -3 | MIA W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Miami
24 games played
Straight up
19-5
79% wins
Against the spread
12-12
50% covers · avg +1.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
16-8
67% overs · avg −0.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs JAX | W 86-69 | -18.5 | L −1.5 | 142.5 | O 155 |
| Nov 6 | vs BCU | W 101-61 | -16.5 | W +23.5 | 154.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 10 | vs STET | W 102-61 | -34.5 | W +6.5 | 161.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 16 | vs FLA | L 68-82 | +10.5 | L −3.5 | 171.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 20 | vs ELON | W 99-72 | -19.5 | W +7.5 | 164.5 | O 171 |
| Nov 23 | vs DSU | W 97-41 | -34.5 | W +21.5 | 151.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 27 | vs BYU | L 62-72 | +7.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 28 | vs GTWN | W 78-65 | -5.5 | W +7.5 | 151.5 | U 143 |
| Dec 2 | @ MISS | W 75-66 | +1.5 | W +10.5 | 145.5 | U 141 |
| Dec 6 | vs USM | W 88-64 | -19.5 | W +4.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 13 | vs ULM | W 104-79 | -35.5 | L −10.5 | 153.5 | O 183 |
| Dec 16 | vs FIU | W 98-81 | -22.5 | L −5.5 | 161.5 | O 179 |
| Dec 21 | vs UNF | W 105-67 | -37.5 | W +0.5 | 171.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 30 | vs PITT | W 76-69 | -9.5 | L −2.5 | 144.5 | O 145 |
| Jan 7 | @ WAKE | W 81-77 | +1.5 | W +5.5 | 157.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 10 | vs GT | W 91-81 | -15.5 | L −5.5 | 156.5 | O 172 |
| Jan 13 | @ ND | W 81-69 | -5.5 | W +6.5 | 143.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 17 | @ CLEM | L 59-69 | +4.5 | L −5.5 | 143.5 | U 128 |
| Jan 20 | vs FSU | L 63-65 | -10.5 | L −12.5 | 163.5 | U 128 |
| Jan 24 | @ SYR | W 85-76 | -1.5 | W +7.5 | 149.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 28 | vs STAN | W 79-70 | -9.5 | L −0.5 | 147.5 | O 149 |
| Jan 31 | vs CAL | L 85-86 | -11.5 | L −12.5 | 148.5 | O 171 |
| Feb 7 | @ BC | W 74-68 | -8.5 | L −2.5 | 141.5 | O 142 |
| Feb 10 | vs UNC | W 75-66 | -1.5 | W +7.5 | 156.5 | U 141 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsJAX
JAXW 86-69
−1.5
6
vsBCU
BCUW 101-61
+23.5
10
vsSTET
STETW 102-61
+6.5
16
vsFLA
FLAL 68-82
−3.5
20
vsELON
ELONW 99-72
+7.5
23
vsDSU
DSUW 97-41
+21.5
27
vsBYU
BYUL 62-72
−2.5
28
vsGTWN
GTWNW 78-65
+7.5
2
@MISS
MISSW 75-66
+10.5
6
vsUSM
USMW 88-64
+4.5
13
vsULM
ULMW 104-79
−10.5
16
vsFIU
FIUW 98-81
−5.5
21
vsUNF
UNFW 105-67
+0.5
30
vsPITT
PITTW 76-69
−2.5
7
@WAKE
WAKEW 81-77
+5.5
10
vsGT
GTW 91-81
−5.5
13
@ND
NDW 81-69
+6.5
17
@CLEM
CLEML 59-69
−5.5
20
vsFSU
FSUL 63-65
−12.5
24
@SYR
SYRW 85-76
+7.5
28
vsSTAN
STANW 79-70
−0.5
31
vsCAL
CALL 85-86
−12.5
7
@BC
BCW 74-68
−2.5
10
vsUNC
UNCW 75-66
+7.5
covered 12didn’t cover 12avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsJAX
JAXW 86-69
+12.5
6
vsBCU
BCUW 101-61
+7.5
10
vsSTET
STETW 102-61
+1.5
16
vsFLA
FLAL 68-82
−21.5
20
vsELON
ELONW 99-72
+6.5
23
vsDSU
DSUW 97-41
−13.5
27
vsBYU
BYUL 62-72
−31.5
28
vsGTWN
GTWNW 78-65
−8.5
2
@MISS
MISSW 75-66
−4.5
6
vsUSM
USMW 88-64
+6.5
13
vsULM
ULMW 104-79
+29.5
16
vsFIU
FIUW 98-81
+17.5
21
vsUNF
UNFW 105-67
+0.5
30
vsPITT
PITTW 76-69
+0.5
7
@WAKE
WAKEW 81-77
+0.5
10
vsGT
GTW 91-81
+15.5
13
@ND
NDW 81-69
+6.5
17
@CLEM
CLEML 59-69
−15.5
20
vsFSU
FSUL 63-65
−35.5
24
@SYR
SYRW 85-76
+11.5
28
vsSTAN
STANW 79-70
+1.5
31
vsCAL
CALL 85-86
+22.5
7
@BC
BCW 74-68
+0.5
10
vsUNC
UNCW 75-66
−15.5
over 16under 8avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
NC State
25 games played
Straight up
18-7
72% wins
Against the spread
13-12
52% covers · avg +0.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
16-9
64% overs · avg +6.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs NCCU | W 114-66 | -31.5 | W +16.5 | 145.5 | O 180 |
| Nov 7 | vs UAB | W 94-70 | -19.5 | W +4.5 | 162.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 12 | vs UNCG | W 110-64 | -30.5 | W +15.5 | 153.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 17 | vs VCU | W 85-79 | -11.5 | L −5.5 | 164.5 | U 164 |
| Nov 24 | vs HALL | L 74-85 | -7.5 | L −18.5 | 143.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 25 | vs BOIS | W 81-70 | -6.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 26 | vs TEX | L 97-102 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 161.5 | O 199 |
| Dec 3 | @ AUB | L 73-83 | +5.5 | L −4.5 | 162.5 | U 156 |
| Dec 6 | vs UNCA | W 75-63 | -28.5 | L −16.5 | 155.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 10 | vs LIB | W 85-45 | -12.5 | W +27.5 | 149.5 | U 130 |
| Dec 13 | vs KU | L 76-77 | -1.5 | L −2.5 | 148.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 17 | vs TXSO | W 108-72 | -34.5 | W +1.5 | 152.5 | O 180 |
| Dec 21 | vsMISS | W 76-62 | -7.5 | W +6.5 | 148.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 31 | vsWAKE | W 70-57 | -10.5 | W +2.5 | 159.5 | U 127 |
| Jan 3 | vs UVA | L 61-76 | -4.5 | L −19.5 | 151.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 6 | @BC | W 79-71 | -11.5 | L −3.5 | 141.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 10 | @FSU | W 113-69 | -4.5 | W +39.5 | 160.5 | O 182 |
| Jan 17 | vsGT | L 74-78 | -17.5 | L −21.5 | 154.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 20 | @CLEM | W 80-76 | +2.5 | W +6.5 | 142.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 24 | @PITT | W 81-72 | -6.5 | W +2.5 | 144.5 | O 153 |
| Jan 27 | vsSYR | W 88-68 | -10.5 | W +9.5 | 151.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 31 | @WAKE | W 96-78 | -5.5 | W +12.5 | 156.5 | O 174 |
| Feb 3 | @ SMU | W 84-83 | -1.5 | L −0.5 | 159.5 | O 167 |
| Feb 7 | vs VT | W 82-73 | -10.5 | L −1.5 | 154.5 | O 155 |
| Feb 9 | @ LOU | L 77-118 | +6.5 | L −34.5 | 161.5 | O 195 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsNCCU
NCCUW 114-66
+16.5
7
vsUAB
UABW 94-70
+4.5
12
vsUNCG
UNCGW 110-64
+15.5
17
vsVCU
VCUW 85-79
−5.5
24
vsHALL
HALLL 74-85
−18.5
25
vsBOIS
BOISW 81-70
+4.5
26
vsTEX
TEXL 97-102
−6.5
3
@AUB
AUBL 73-83
−4.5
6
vsUNCA
UNCAW 75-63
−16.5
10
vsLIB
LIBW 85-45
+27.5
13
vsKU
KUL 76-77
−2.5
17
vsTXSO
TXSOW 108-72
+1.5
21
vsMISS
MISSW 76-62
+6.5
31
vsWAKE
WAKEW 70-57
+2.5
3
vsUVA
UVAL 61-76
−19.5
6
@BC
BCW 79-71
−3.5
10
@FSU
FSUW 113-69
+39.5
17
vsGT
GTL 74-78
−21.5
20
@CLEM
CLEMW 80-76
+6.5
24
@PITT
PITTW 81-72
+2.5
27
vsSYR
SYRW 88-68
+9.5
31
@WAKE
WAKEW 96-78
+12.5
3
@SMU
SMUW 84-83
−0.5
7
vsVT
VTW 82-73
−1.5
9
@LOU
LOUL 77-118
−34.5
covered 13didn’t cover 12avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsNCCU
NCCUW 114-66
+34.5
7
vsUAB
UABW 94-70
+1.5
12
vsUNCG
UNCGW 110-64
+20.5
17
vsVCU
VCUW 85-79
−0.5
24
vsHALL
HALLL 74-85
+15.5
25
vsBOIS
BOISW 81-70
−1.5
26
vsTEX
TEXL 97-102
+37.5
3
@AUB
AUBL 73-83
−6.5
6
vsUNCA
UNCAW 75-63
−17.5
10
vsLIB
LIBW 85-45
−19.5
13
vsKU
KUL 76-77
+4.5
17
vsTXSO
TXSOW 108-72
+27.5
21
vsMISS
MISSW 76-62
−10.5
31
vsWAKE
WAKEW 70-57
−32.5
3
vsUVA
UVAL 61-76
−14.5
6
@BC
BCW 79-71
+8.5
10
@FSU
FSUW 113-69
+21.5
17
vsGT
GTL 74-78
−2.5
20
@CLEM
CLEMW 80-76
+13.5
24
@PITT
PITTW 81-72
+8.5
27
vsSYR
SYRW 88-68
+4.5
31
@WAKE
WAKEW 96-78
+17.5
3
@SMU
SMUW 84-83
+7.5
7
vsVT
VTW 82-73
+0.5
9
@LOU
LOUL 77-118
+33.5
over 16under 9avg +6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Miami
19-5 overall · 8-3 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs North Carolina75–66
- W@ Boston College74–68
- Lvs California85–86
- Wvs Stanford79–70
- W@ Syracuse85–76
4 days since their last game.
NC State
18-7 overall · 9-3 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Louisville77–118
- Wvs Virginia Tech82–73
- W@ SMU84–83
- W@ Wake Forest96–78
- Wvs Syracuse88–68
5 days since their last game.