LJVM Coliseum · at Wake Forest · Conference game
Closing line
LOU -9.5✓ WAKE covered by 1.5
LOU -9.5✓ WAKE covered by 1.5Closing total162.5Over by 5.5
| LOU | This season | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| 16-6 | Record | 11-11 |
| 11-11 | ATS | 7-15 |
| 8-14 | O/U | 14-8 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: LOU 84–75 WAKE · ✓ LOU (78%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOU | 43 | 45 | 88 |
| WAKE | 34 | 46 | 80 |
1st half: LOU 43, WAKE 34 (LOU by 9). The model had LOU by 5.3 and a total of 74.7 (actual 77).
Team stats
| LOU | WAKE | |
|---|---|---|
| 27-51 53% | Field goals | 27-63 43% |
| 10-25 40% | 3-pointers | 8-25 32% |
| 24-31 77% | Free throws | 18-25 72% |
| 32 6 off | Rebounds | 32 10 off |
| 19 | Assists | 17 |
| 3 | Steals | 8 |
| 4 | Blocks | 2 |
| 11 | Turnovers | 6 |
| 20 | Fouls | 24 |
| 34 | Points in paint | 30 |
| 7 | Fast-break points | 2 |
Players
| LOU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikel Brown Jr. G | 33 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 2-10 | 1-7 |
| Ryan Conwell G | 26 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 3-6 | 2-4 |
| Sananda Fru F | 26 | 17 | 6 | 2 | 7-7 | 0-0 |
| J'Vonne Hadley G | 22 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 5-7 | 1-2 |
| Isaac McKneely G | 22 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 4-5 | 3-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Adrian Wooley G | 23 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Khani Rooths F | 18 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 4-10 | 1-5 |
| Kobe Rodgers G | 12 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Aly Khalifa C | 9 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Kasean Pryor F | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Vangelis Zougris F | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Mouhamed Camara, Will Hanke, Cole Sherman, Spencer Legg, London Johnson
| WAKE | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juke Harris G | 39 | 25 | 11 | 3 | 8-21 | 3-10 |
| Tre'Von Spillers F | 32 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 4-9 | 0-0 |
| Myles Colvin G | 29 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 2-8 | 1-5 |
| Sebastian Akins G | 27 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 4-11 | 0-3 |
| Cooper Schwieger F | 18 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Mekhi Mason G | 20 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Omaha Biliew F | 14 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 5-6 | 3-3 |
| Isaac Carr G | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Marqus Marion F | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Anson Beard Jr., Dimitrije Kovacevic, Jaylen Cross, Will Underwood, Vincent Ricchiuti, Nate Calmese, Owen Kmety
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenLOU -7.5
2 → LOU
CloseLOU -9.5
2 pts toward LOU
Total
Open159.5
▲ 3
Close162.5
Up 3 since the open
Moneyline
LOU -575 · WAKE +425
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened LOU -7.5 · closed LOU -9.5 · moved 2 toward LOUmodel LOU -8.5
model LOU -8.5
Opened 159.5 · closed 162.5 · moved 3 upmodel 159.5
model 159.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | LOU -9.5 | LOU -8.7 | WAKE +0.8 | W WAKE covered |
| Total | 162.5 | 159.6 | Under 2.9 | L Over |
| Projected score | — | LOU 84.2 · WAKE 75.4 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | LOU -5.3 | LOU -9.0 |
| 1H total | 74.7 | 77 |
| 1H projected score | LOU 40 · WAKE 34.7 | LOU 43 · WAKE 34 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOU | 6-4 60% | 3-7 30% | 2-8 20% |
| WAKE | 2-8 20% | 1-9 10% | 8-2 80% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
LOU 2–3 WAKEWAKE leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · LOU 2-2-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2024-25 | WAKE 59 @ LOU 72 | LOU -9.5 | LOU W |
| Jan 20, 2023-24 | LOU 65 @ WAKE 90 | WAKE -15.5 | WAKE W |
| Jan 7, 2022-23 | WAKE 80 @ LOU 72 | LOU +9.5 | LOU W |
| Feb 26, 2021-22 | LOU 77 @ WAKE 99 | WAKE -9 | WAKE W |
| Dec 29, 2021-22 | WAKE 69 @ LOU 73 | LOU -4 | P |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Louisville
22 games played
Straight up
16-6
73% wins
Against the spread
11-11
50% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-14
36% overs · avg −5.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs SCST | W 104-45 | -35.5 | W +23.5 | 159.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 6 | vs JKST | W 106-70 | -38.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 11 | vs UK | W 96-88 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 173.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 15 | vs OHIO | W 106-81 | -31.5 | L −6.5 | 174.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 21 | vs CIN | W 74-64 | -8.5 | W +1.5 | 163.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 24 | vs EMU | W 87-46 | -33.5 | W +7.5 | 162.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 26 | vs NJIT | W 104-47 | -44.5 | W +12.5 | 158.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 3 | @ ARK | L 80-89 | -1.5 | L −10.5 | 166.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 6 | vs IU | W 87-78 | -3.5 | W +5.5 | 162.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 13 | vs MEM | W 99-73 | -16.5 | W +9.5 | 162.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 16 | @ TENN | L 62-83 | +4.5 | L −16.5 | 156.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 20 | vs MONT | W 94-54 | -30.5 | W +9.5 | 166.5 | U 148 |
| Dec 30 | @ CAL | W 90-70 | -7.5 | W +12.5 | 159.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 2 | @ STAN | L 76-80 | -7.5 | L −11.5 | 157.5 | U 156 |
| Jan 6 | vs DUKE | L 73-84 | +1.5 | L −9.5 | 161.5 | U 157 |
| Jan 10 | vs BC | W 75-62 | -21.5 | L −8.5 | 150.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 13 | vs UVA | L 70-79 | -4.5 | L −13.5 | 154.5 | U 149 |
| Jan 17 | @ PITT | W 100-59 | -7.5 | W +33.5 | 152.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 24 | vs VT | W 85-71 | -14.5 | L −0.5 | 160.5 | U 156 |
| Jan 26 | @DUKE | L 52-83 | +8.5 | L −22.5 | 157.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 31 | vs SMU | W 88-74 | -9.5 | W +4.5 | 163.5 | U 162 |
| Feb 4 | vs ND | W 76-65 | -19.5 | L −8.5 | 155.5 | U 141 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsSCST
SCSTW 104-45
+23.5
6
vsJKST
JKSTW 106-70
−2.5
11
vsUK
UKW 96-88
+2.5
15
vsOHIO
OHIOW 106-81
−6.5
21
vsCIN
CINW 74-64
+1.5
24
vsEMU
EMUW 87-46
+7.5
26
vsNJIT
NJITW 104-47
+12.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 80-89
−10.5
6
vsIU
IUW 87-78
+5.5
13
vsMEM
MEMW 99-73
+9.5
16
@TENN
TENNL 62-83
−16.5
20
vsMONT
MONTW 94-54
+9.5
30
@CAL
CALW 90-70
+12.5
2
@STAN
STANL 76-80
−11.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 73-84
−9.5
10
vsBC
BCW 75-62
−8.5
13
vsUVA
UVAL 70-79
−13.5
17
@PITT
PITTW 100-59
+33.5
24
vsVT
VTW 85-71
−0.5
26
@DUKE
DUKEL 52-83
−22.5
31
vsSMU
SMUW 88-74
+4.5
4
vsND
NDW 76-65
−8.5
covered 11didn’t cover 11avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsSCST
SCSTW 104-45
−10.5
6
vsJKST
JKSTW 106-70
+10.5
11
vsUK
UKW 96-88
+10.5
15
vsOHIO
OHIOW 106-81
+12.5
21
vsCIN
CINW 74-64
−25.5
24
vsEMU
EMUW 87-46
−29.5
26
vsNJIT
NJITW 104-47
−7.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 80-89
+2.5
6
vsIU
IUW 87-78
+2.5
13
vsMEM
MEMW 99-73
+9.5
16
@TENN
TENNL 62-83
−11.5
20
vsMONT
MONTW 94-54
−18.5
30
@CAL
CALW 90-70
+0.5
2
@STAN
STANL 76-80
−1.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 73-84
−4.5
10
vsBC
BCW 75-62
−13.5
13
vsUVA
UVAL 70-79
−5.5
17
@PITT
PITTW 100-59
+6.5
24
vsVT
VTW 85-71
−4.5
26
@DUKE
DUKEL 52-83
−22.5
31
vsSMU
SMUW 88-74
−1.5
4
vsND
NDW 76-65
−14.5
over 8under 14avg −5.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Wake Forest
22 games played
Straight up
11-11
50% wins
Against the spread
7-15
32% covers · avg −1.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
14-8
64% overs · avg −0 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs AMER | W 88-74 | -19.5 | L −5.5 | 139.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 7 | vs MORE | W 81-65 | -22.5 | L −6.5 | 152.5 | U 146 |
| Nov 11 | vs MICH | L 84-85 | +15.5 | W +14.5 | 168.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 16 | vs UML | W 109-75 | -30.5 | W +3.5 | 165.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 20 | vs TTU | L 83-84 | +9.5 | W +8.5 | 160.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 21 | vsMEM | W 69-68 | -2.5 | L −1.5 | 160.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 25 | vs CAM | W 99-51 | -17.5 | W +30.5 | 159.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 28 | vs NE | W 86-73 | -17.5 | L −4.5 | 154.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 2 | vs OU | L 68-86 | -4.5 | L −22.5 | 159.5 | U 154 |
| Dec 6 | vs WVU | W 75-66 | +2.5 | W +11.5 | 143.5 | U 141 |
| Dec 14 | vs QUC | W 111-73 | -18.5 | W +19.5 | 165.5 | O 184 |
| Dec 17 | vs LONG | W 71-68 | -24.5 | L −21.5 | 163.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 21 | vs VAN | L 67-98 | +5.5 | L −25.5 | 164.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 31 | @ NCSU | L 57-70 | +10.5 | L −2.5 | 159.5 | U 127 |
| Jan 3 | vsVT | W 81-78 | -5.5 | L −2.5 | 153.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 7 | vs MIA | L 77-81 | -1.5 | L −5.5 | 157.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 10 | @ UNC | L 84-87 | +10.5 | W +7.5 | 154.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 17 | @ FSU | W 69-68 | -1.5 | L −0.5 | 168.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 20 | vsSMU | L 79-91 | -1.5 | L −13.5 | 157.5 | O 170 |
| Jan 24 | @DUKE | L 69-90 | +19.5 | L −1.5 | 153.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 27 | @PITT | L 76-80 | +1.5 | L −2.5 | 150.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 31 | vsNCSU | L 78-96 | +5.5 | L −12.5 | 156.5 | O 174 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsAMER
AMERW 88-74
−5.5
7
vsMORE
MOREW 81-65
−6.5
11
vsMICH
MICHL 84-85
+14.5
16
vsUML
UMLW 109-75
+3.5
20
vsTTU
TTUL 83-84
+8.5
21
vsMEM
MEMW 69-68
−1.5
25
vsCAM
CAMW 99-51
+30.5
28
vsNE
NEW 86-73
−4.5
2
vsOU
OUL 68-86
−22.5
6
vsWVU
WVUW 75-66
+11.5
14
vsQUC
QUCW 111-73
+19.5
17
vsLONG
LONGW 71-68
−21.5
21
vsVAN
VANL 67-98
−25.5
31
@NCSU
NCSUL 57-70
−2.5
3
vsVT
VTW 81-78
−2.5
7
vsMIA
MIAL 77-81
−5.5
10
@UNC
UNCL 84-87
+7.5
17
@FSU
FSUW 69-68
−0.5
20
vsSMU
SMUL 79-91
−13.5
24
@DUKE
DUKEL 69-90
−1.5
27
@PITT
PITTL 76-80
−2.5
31
vsNCSU
NCSUL 78-96
−12.5
covered 7didn’t cover 15avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsAMER
AMERW 88-74
+22.5
7
vsMORE
MOREW 81-65
−6.5
11
vsMICH
MICHL 84-85
+0.5
16
vsUML
UMLW 109-75
+18.5
20
vsTTU
TTUL 83-84
+6.5
21
vsMEM
MEMW 69-68
−23.5
25
vsCAM
CAMW 99-51
−9.5
28
vsNE
NEW 86-73
+4.5
2
vsOU
OUL 68-86
−5.5
6
vsWVU
WVUW 75-66
−2.5
14
vsQUC
QUCW 111-73
+18.5
17
vsLONG
LONGW 71-68
−24.5
21
vsVAN
VANL 67-98
+0.5
31
@NCSU
NCSUL 57-70
−32.5
3
vsVT
VTW 81-78
+5.5
7
vsMIA
MIAL 77-81
+0.5
10
@UNC
UNCL 84-87
+16.5
17
@FSU
FSUW 69-68
−31.5
20
vsSMU
SMUL 79-91
+12.5
24
@DUKE
DUKEL 69-90
+5.5
27
@PITT
PITTL 76-80
+5.5
31
vsNCSU
NCSUL 78-96
+17.5
over 14under 8avg −0 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Louisville
16-6 overall · 6-4 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Notre Dame76–65
- Wvs SMU88–74
- L@ Duke52–83
- Wvs Virginia Tech85–71
- W@ Pitt100–59
3 days since their last game.
Wake Forest
11-11 overall · 2-7 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs NC State78–96
- L@ Pitt76–80
- L@ Duke69–90
- Lvs SMU79–91
- W@ Florida St69–68
A week or more of rest.