Dean E. Smith Center · at North Carolina · Conference game
Closing line
DUKE -6.5✓ UNC covered by 9.5
DUKE -6.5✓ UNC covered by 9.5Closing total152.5Under by 13.5
| DUKE | This season | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| 21-1 | Record | 18-4 |
| 13-9 | ATS | 12-10 |
| 7-15 | O/U | 12-10 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: DUKE 79–72 UNC · ✗ DUKE (73%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DUKE | 41 | 27 | 68 |
| UNC | 29 | 42 | 71 |
1st half: DUKE 41, UNC 29 (DUKE by 12). The model had DUKE by 4.3 and a total of 70.3 (actual 70).
Team stats
| DUKE | UNC | |
|---|---|---|
| 28-62 45% | Field goals | 26-55 47% |
| 7-19 37% | 3-pointers | 8-19 42% |
| 5-6 83% | Free throws | 11-14 79% |
| 38 10 off | Rebounds | 26 4 off |
| 14 | Assists | 9 |
| 6 | Steals | 5 |
| 1 | Blocks | 3 |
| 8 | Turnovers | 7 |
| 15 | Fouls | 7 |
| 36 | Points in paint | 22 |
| 8 | Fast-break points | 6 |
Players
| DUKE | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Boozer F | 38 | 24 | 11 | 3 | 10-21 | 2-4 |
| Caleb Foster G | 34 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 4-8 | 1-2 |
| Isaiah Evans G | 34 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 4-14 | 1-4 |
| Dame Sarr F | 33 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5-6 | 2-3 |
| Patrick Ngongba II C | 16 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 2-5 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Maliq Brown F | 26 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Cayden Boozer G | 16 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| Nik Khamenia F | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Cameron Sheffield, Ifeanyi Ufochukwu, Sebastian Wilkins, Jack Scott, Darren Harris
| UNC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Wilson F | 40 | 23 | 4 | 2 | 8-12 | 1-2 |
| Henri Veesaar C | 35 | 13 | 11 | 1 | 6-9 | 1-2 |
| Derek Dixon G | 33 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 3-8 | 2-4 |
| Seth Trimble G | 32 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 5-7 | 1-1 |
| Jarin Stevenson F | 25 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2-6 | 1-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jonathan Powell G | 15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Luka Bogavac G | 13 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-7 | 1-4 |
| Kyan Evans G | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Jaydon Young G | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: James Brown, Elijah Davis, Zayden High, Isaiah Denis, John Holbrook, Ivan Matlekovic, Evan Smith
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenDUKE -5.5
1 → DUKE
CloseDUKE -6.5
1 pt toward DUKE
Total
Open150.5
▲ 2
Close152.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
DUKE -270 · UNC +220
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened DUKE -5.5 · closed DUKE -6.5 · moved 1 toward DUKEmodel DUKE -7
model DUKE -7
Opened 150.5 · closed 152.5 · moved 2 upmodel 150.5
model 150.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | DUKE -6.5 | DUKE -6.9 | DUKE +0.4 | L UNC covered |
| Total | 152.5 | 150.3 | Under 2.2 | W Under |
| Projected score | — | DUKE 78.6 · UNC 71.7 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | DUKE -4.3 | DUKE -12.0 |
| 1H total | 70.3 | 70 |
| 1H projected score | DUKE 37.3 · UNC 33 | DUKE 41 · UNC 29 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DUKE | 10-0 100% | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% |
| UNC | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% | 9-1 90% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22
DUKE 6–4 UNCDUKE leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · DUKE has won the last 3 meetings · DUKE 5-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2024-25 | UNC 71 vs DUKE 74 | DUKE -7.5 | UNC W |
| Mar 8, 2024-25 | DUKE 82 @ UNC 69 | UNC +9.5 | DUKE W |
| Feb 1, 2024-25 | UNC 70 @ DUKE 87 | DUKE -12.5 | DUKE W |
| Mar 9, 2023-24 | UNC 84 @ DUKE 79 | DUKE -4.5 | UNC W |
| Feb 3, 2023-24 | DUKE 84 @ UNC 93 | UNC -4.5 | UNC W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Duke
22 games played
Straight up
21-1
95% wins
Against the spread
13-9
59% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-15
32% overs · avg −5.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs TEX | W 75-60 | -10.5 | W +4.5 | 153.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 8 | vs WCU | W 95-54 | -36.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 11 | @ ARMY | W 114-59 | -33.5 | W +21.5 | 152.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 14 | vs INST | W 100-62 | -37.5 | W +0.5 | 163.5 | U 162 |
| Nov 18 | vs KU | W 78-66 | -10.5 | W +1.5 | 149.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 21 | vs NIA | W 100-42 | -39.5 | W +18.5 | 146.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 23 | vs HOW | W 93-56 | -43.5 | L −6.5 | 154.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 27 | vs ARK | W 80-71 | -12.5 | L −3.5 | 159.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 2 | vs FLA | W 67-66 | -9.5 | L −8.5 | 157.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 6 | @ MSU | W 66-60 | -1.5 | W +4.5 | 141.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 16 | vs LIP | W 97-73 | -32.5 | L −8.5 | 151.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 20 | vs TTU | L 81-82 | -9.5 | L −10.5 | 152.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 31 | vs GT | W 85-79 | -27.5 | L −21.5 | 153.5 | O 164 |
| Jan 3 | @ FSU | W 91-87 | -16.5 | L −12.5 | 163.5 | O 178 |
| Jan 6 | @ LOU | W 84-73 | -1.5 | W +9.5 | 161.5 | U 157 |
| Jan 10 | vs SMU | W 82-75 | -15.5 | L −8.5 | 155.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 14 | @ CAL | W 71-56 | -14.5 | W +0.5 | 149.5 | U 127 |
| Jan 17 | @ STAN | W 80-50 | -11.5 | W +18.5 | 148.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 24 | vs WAKE | W 90-69 | -19.5 | W +1.5 | 153.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 26 | vsLOU | W 83-52 | -8.5 | W +22.5 | 157.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 31 | @ VT | W 72-58 | -13.5 | W +0.5 | 148.5 | U 130 |
| Feb 3 | vs BC | W 67-49 | -26.5 | L −8.5 | 141.5 | U 116 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsTEX
TEXW 75-60
+4.5
8
vsWCU
WCUW 95-54
+4.5
11
@ARMY
ARMYW 114-59
+21.5
14
vsINST
INSTW 100-62
+0.5
18
vsKU
KUW 78-66
+1.5
21
vsNIA
NIAW 100-42
+18.5
23
vsHOW
HOWW 93-56
−6.5
27
vsARK
ARKW 80-71
−3.5
2
vsFLA
FLAW 67-66
−8.5
6
@MSU
MSUW 66-60
+4.5
16
vsLIP
LIPW 97-73
−8.5
20
vsTTU
TTUL 81-82
−10.5
31
vsGT
GTW 85-79
−21.5
3
@FSU
FSUW 91-87
−12.5
6
@LOU
LOUW 84-73
+9.5
10
vsSMU
SMUW 82-75
−8.5
14
@CAL
CALW 71-56
+0.5
17
@STAN
STANW 80-50
+18.5
24
vsWAKE
WAKEW 90-69
+1.5
26
vsLOU
LOUW 83-52
+22.5
31
@VT
VTW 72-58
+0.5
3
vsBC
BCW 67-49
−8.5
covered 13didn’t cover 9avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsTEX
TEXW 75-60
−18.5
8
vsWCU
WCUW 95-54
−3.5
11
@ARMY
ARMYW 114-59
+20.5
14
vsINST
INSTW 100-62
−1.5
18
vsKU
KUW 78-66
−5.5
21
vsNIA
NIAW 100-42
−4.5
23
vsHOW
HOWW 93-56
−5.5
27
vsARK
ARKW 80-71
−8.5
2
vsFLA
FLAW 67-66
−24.5
6
@MSU
MSUW 66-60
−15.5
16
vsLIP
LIPW 97-73
+18.5
20
vsTTU
TTUL 81-82
+10.5
31
vsGT
GTW 85-79
+10.5
3
@FSU
FSUW 91-87
+14.5
6
@LOU
LOUW 84-73
−4.5
10
vsSMU
SMUW 82-75
+1.5
14
@CAL
CALW 71-56
−22.5
17
@STAN
STANW 80-50
−18.5
24
vsWAKE
WAKEW 90-69
+5.5
26
vsLOU
LOUW 83-52
−22.5
31
@VT
VTW 72-58
−18.5
3
vsBC
BCW 67-49
−25.5
over 7under 15avg −5.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
North Carolina
22 games played
Straight up
18-4
82% wins
Against the spread
12-10
55% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
12-10
55% overs · avg −1.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs CARK | W 94-54 | -31.5 | W +8.5 | 157.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 7 | vsKU | W 87-74 | -2.5 | W +10.5 | 159.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 11 | vs RAD | W 89-74 | -20.5 | L −5.5 | 162.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 14 | vs NCCU | W 97-53 | -34.5 | W +9.5 | 159.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 18 | vs NAVY | W 73-61 | -26.5 | L −14.5 | 160.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 25 | vs SBU | W 85-70 | -10.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | O 155 |
| Nov 27 | vsMSU | L 58-74 | +1.5 | L −14.5 | 152.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 2 | @ UK | W 67-64 | +7.5 | W +10.5 | 163.5 | U 131 |
| Dec 7 | vs GTWN | W 81-61 | -10.5 | W +9.5 | 149.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 13 | vs UPST | W 80-62 | -29.5 | L −11.5 | 151.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 16 | vs ETSU | W 77-58 | -17.5 | W +1.5 | 150.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 20 | vs OSU | W 71-70 | -2.5 | L −1.5 | 157.5 | U 141 |
| Dec 22 | vs ECU | W 99-51 | -25.5 | W +22.5 | 144.5 | O 150 |
| Dec 30 | vsFSU | W 79-66 | -12.5 | W +0.5 | 166.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 3 | @SMU | L 83-97 | +1.5 | L −12.5 | 155.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 10 | vsWAKE | W 87-84 | -10.5 | L −7.5 | 154.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 14 | @STAN | L 90-95 | -4.5 | L −9.5 | 147.5 | O 185 |
| Jan 17 | @CAL | L 78-84 | -7.5 | L −13.5 | 151.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 21 | vs ND | W 91-69 | -13.5 | W +8.5 | 149.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 24 | @ UVA | W 85-80 | +6.5 | W +11.5 | 152.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 31 | @GT | W 91-75 | -9.5 | W +6.5 | 160.5 | O 166 |
| Feb 2 | vs SYR | W 87-77 | -11.5 | L −1.5 | 158.5 | O 164 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCARK
CARKW 94-54
+8.5
7
vsKU
KUW 87-74
+10.5
11
vsRAD
RADW 89-74
−5.5
14
vsNCCU
NCCUW 97-53
+9.5
18
vsNAVY
NAVYW 73-61
−14.5
25
vsSBU
SBUW 85-70
+4.5
27
vsMSU
MSUL 58-74
−14.5
2
@UK
UKW 67-64
+10.5
7
vsGTWN
GTWNW 81-61
+9.5
13
vsUPST
UPSTW 80-62
−11.5
16
vsETSU
ETSUW 77-58
+1.5
20
vsOSU
OSUW 71-70
−1.5
22
vsECU
ECUW 99-51
+22.5
30
vsFSU
FSUW 79-66
+0.5
3
@SMU
SMUL 83-97
−12.5
10
vsWAKE
WAKEW 87-84
−7.5
14
@STAN
STANL 90-95
−9.5
17
@CAL
CALL 78-84
−13.5
21
vsND
NDW 91-69
+8.5
24
@UVA
UVAW 85-80
+11.5
31
@GT
GTW 91-75
+6.5
2
vsSYR
SYRW 87-77
−1.5
covered 12didn’t cover 10avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCARK
CARKW 94-54
−9.5
7
vsKU
KUW 87-74
+1.5
11
vsRAD
RADW 89-74
+0.5
14
vsNCCU
NCCUW 97-53
−9.5
18
vsNAVY
NAVYW 73-61
−26.5
25
vsSBU
SBUW 85-70
+2.5
27
vsMSU
MSUL 58-74
−20.5
2
@UK
UKW 67-64
−32.5
7
vsGTWN
GTWNW 81-61
−7.5
13
vsUPST
UPSTW 80-62
−9.5
16
vsETSU
ETSUW 77-58
−15.5
20
vsOSU
OSUW 71-70
−16.5
22
vsECU
ECUW 99-51
+5.5
30
vsFSU
FSUW 79-66
−21.5
3
@SMU
SMUL 83-97
+24.5
10
vsWAKE
WAKEW 87-84
+16.5
14
@STAN
STANL 90-95
+37.5
17
@CAL
CALL 78-84
+10.5
21
vsND
NDW 91-69
+10.5
24
@UVA
UVAW 85-80
+12.5
31
@GT
GTW 91-75
+5.5
2
vsSYR
SYRW 87-77
+5.5
over 12under 10avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Duke
21-1 overall · 10-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Boston College67–49
- W@ Virginia Tech72–58
- Wvs Louisville83–52
- Wvs Wake Forest90–69
- W@ Stanford80–50
4 days since their last game.
North Carolina
18-4 overall · 6-3 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Syracuse87–77
- W@ Georgia Tech91–75
- W@ Virginia85–80
- Wvs Notre Dame91–69
- L@ California78–84
5 days since their last game.